Rat u Ukrajini

Sadamova invazija Kuvajta je puno primjerenija za poređenje, odmetnuta 19. provincija koju vraćamo tamo gdje pripada.

Ali da ne širimo dalje već da završim odmah:

Del Cap wrote:^^

Pa to, a realno ima više scenarija. Ruske pozicije u Pridnjestrovlju mi se čine slabim za bilo kakvu ofanzivu, a vrv su slabe i da brane to što drže. Da je ruska vojska negde kod Odese pa da i pomislimo da su se nameračili na Moldaviju u praksi.

Ne znam da li je Kišinjev raspoložen da nešto vojno pokušava, dosad su se držali prilično oprezno (nisu uveli sankcije Rusiji, npr) i gledaju da ih ne zakači rat, koliko je do njih.

Ukrajina bi mogla da relativno malim snagama napadne Pridnjestrovlje, i da se pokriva politički nekim dogovorom sa Kišinjevom ili s kim god. Em bi rekli da time nekako neutrališu nelegitimne ruske pozicije, em bi širili front prema Rusima što im je i deo strategije radi slabljenja pritiska u Donbasu.

- Руска позиција у Придњестровљу је одсечена, нема логистике и појачања - нема ни офанзиве.
- Придњестровље је равно, дубина од 5-30 км, а врло дугачко. Украјинци врло лако могу да га пресеку на више делова.
- Руске и локалне снаге могу једино да се повуку у градове. Да би их истерали одатле, Украјинци би морали да ангажују више снага него што имају око Одесе.
- Складиште је вероватно већ минирано, ако и има нешто занимљиво у њему.

Војно - врло мали бољитак за Украјинце.
Политички је велик проблем што нападају другу земљу.

Тако да мислим да је тај сценарио вероватан колико и руско искрцавање...

fikret selimbašić wrote:

Великобритания, Израиль, Канада, Франция, Германия и США призывают всех своих граждан покинуть Молдову и Приднестровье в кратчайшие сроки

Polutačno i nategnuto, Englezi i Nemci samo pozivaju da se ne ide u Pridnjestrovlje. Za ostale me mrzi da proveravam.

The security situation in Transnistria has deteriorated.

Against this background, travel to the Transnistrian region is strongly discouraged.

https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/de/ReiseUndSicherheit/moldausicherheit/201932
(prevod: Deepl)


https://www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-advice/moldova

Russian OSINT channel Rybar (https://t.me/rybar) on the difficulties of the "Second Phase" & the Battle for Popasnaya:

Difficulties of the second phase of a special military operation

Quite often we encounter ordinary people's misunderstanding of what is happening on the frontlines. In some ways this is the fault of television experts, who for eight years have been spreading hurrah-patriotism about "worthless Ukrainians”. In some ways it is the banal lack of understanding of the specifics of military operations in the region.

In the Kharkov and Lugansk oblasts, the relatively slow pace of advance of the Allied Forces [Armed Forces of Russia + Donetsk/Lugansk People’s Militias – RWA] persists. In the south, in Donetsk and Zaporozhye oblasts, progress is almost imperceptible.

Therefore, some may have the mistaken impression that the second phase of the SSO declared by the Russian military command has stalled.

But this is not true.

The main task of the second phase involves establishing full control over Donbass. And there are several factors to consider here:

The Donbass group of the AFU consists of the most trained and motivated units, including those redeployed from Western Ukraine.

The enemy has had eight years to think through and implement a deeply echeloned defense along the entire line of contact with LPR and DPR forces.

The Ukrainian side deliberately does not evacuate the population from the combat zone, using civilians as human shields. Evacuations are only carried out when military personnel are mixed with civilians in evacuation convoys.

All this undoubtedly complicates the main task of the second phase of the Special Military Operation, but does not make it impossible.

The Allied Forces are currently making active attempts to breach the AFU defenses in several places at once:

Slow but steady progress is being made in the Izyum direction.

The Allied forces have completed an operational encirclement of Liman: the entire area is under Russian fire control.

Battles continue for Rubezhnoye, where the enemy defenses are gradually being ground down.

The LPR People's Militia eliminated a powerful fortification in Novotoshkovskoye and advanced toward Orekhovo.

The assault on Popasnaya continues: regular troops, "Kadyrovites" and "Wagner" have been slowly taking the city for a month and a half now.

Popasnaya has been called almost the Stalingrad of the current special operation. Although the comparison is overflowing with pathos, it is nevertheless correct. Yes, there was a successful operation to liberate Mariupol.

But if we compare the scale of forces and means involved, as well as the prospects for the operation, then Popasnaya is one of the critical points for the success of the second phase of the Special Military Operation.

What control of Popasnaya accomplishes

The ability to continue the offensive on multiple fronts simultaneously;

access to a major transport hub - the town of Bakhmut, the occupation of which will disrupt the supply of some of the AFU units;

the possibility of creating several cauldrons and cutting off the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk group from the rest of the AFU forces in the Donbass.

Realizing these prospects, the AFU command moved some units from the agglomeration of Rubezhnoye - Severodonetsk - Lisichansk to Popasnaya. This made it possible to partially compensate for the losses incurred by the 24th Lvov Mechanized Brigade.

Although the Allied Forces already control most of the city, the assault on Popasnaya remains one of the most difficult operations for several reasons.

The complexities of Popasna

The settlement is located in an elevated area with a whole network of natural water obstacles. This significantly slowed the pace of the offensive in the early days.

In eight years, the AFU has turned the city into a powerful fortification, surrounding it (especially along the southern outskirts) with a system of platoon and company level strongpoints, which are linked by communication passages. These communications allow for the covert transfer of personnel and armored vehicles to firing positions with the ability to move quickly for cover.

The Allied Forces are likely to eliminate the strongpoints, to which AFU units are currently trying to withdraw from the city, after the liberation of Popasnaya itself.

Most of the city is in the private sector, where Ukrainian servicemen have dug trenches and equipped dugouts in basements. Sweeping each house is time-consuming and difficult.

In the rare high-rise buildings, AFU units created positions for snipers and spotters.

There are still civilians in Popasnaya, which prevents the Allied Forces from making full use of aviation and artillery.

That is how it turns out that it will take more time to storm the twenty-thousand-strong town than to liberate the half-million-strong city of Mariupol.

However, this operation, too, is gradually nearing completion.

At this point

The allied forces control the entire eastern part of the city, the Popasnaya-1 railway station, and the local administration building.

A few strongholds have been eliminated around the city.

The southwestern outskirts of the city are being cleaned up and preparations are being made for an offensive towards the Popasnya car-repair plant.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces are gradually realizing the pointlessness of further resistance and surrendering in small groups.

The result of the liberation of Popasnaya will not be long in coming, and the second phase of the special military operation will proceed at a different speed.

The guy who created Ukraine according to some V.V. Putin. https://t.co/INTp0uD9tW

— Leonid Ragozin (@leonidragozin) April 30, 2022

Tell me the offensive has stalled without telling me that it has stalled: 

Mesec i po dana osvajamo...Popasnaju

E, al to je zato sto je Ukrajinci brane. Da je ne brane, davno bismo je osvojili!

I zato sto jako brinu o civilima.

Andželina Džoli u Ljvovu. Sad su stvarno najebali.

The Russian army has set up "filtration camps" in Donbas to screen fleeing civilians.

"They asked me about my job and home and where I wanted to live. I said: 'In Ukraine.' They laughed: 'There won't be such a country.'"https://t.co/9H5xmI2CYC

— DW Freedom (@dw_freedom) April 29, 2022

Летећи Полип wrote:E, al to je zato sto je Ukrajinci brane. Da je ne brane, davno bismo je osvojili!

Među bojarima je to čak i veći ukrajinski grijeh nego njihova nacistička politika. Šta se koji kurac brane i time dodatno izazivaju Putina, neka se predaju pa da fino nastavimo đe smo stali.

Newly repaired bridge over the Kasennyj Torets (Казенний Торець) river just mined in #Slavyansk. This means that it is highly likely that the Russians will occupy the city.
️48°50'28.7"N 37°37'00.4"E pic.twitter.com/wDTMkmH73s

— ???????????????????????????????? ???????????????????????????????? (@MilitaryEmpire) April 30, 2022

U oktobru su završili rekonstrukciju.

https://novosti.dn.ua/news/316864-v-slavyanske-otkryli-otremontirovannyj-most-kotoryj-soedinyaet-gorod-s-kramatorskom

Niz

The language context of Ukraine can be a tricky topic for any outsider. In this long and personal thread, I’ll illustrate the relationship between :flag_ua: and :flag_ru: languages in Ukraine using my family’s history. I’m a bilingual Ukrainian raised in a Russian-speaking family in Kyiv. pic.twitter.com/WtXCSr8ti8

— Stas Olenchenko :flag_ua: (@TheStanislawski) April 30, 2022

raised in a Russian-speaking family in Kyiv.

Ne, nisi.

Slobodno odustanite vec tu

Burn

https://www.dw.com/en/india-defends-its-russia-position-criticizes-west-at-raisina-dialogue/a-61635857

...
At a conference organized by the External Affairs Ministry this week, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar said India would set its own course on foreign policy, despite pressure from the EU and the US to join in condemning Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

"We have to be confident about who we are. I think it is better to engage the world on the basis of who we are rather than try and please the world as a pale imitation of what they are," Jaishankar told the Raisina Dialogue, an annual foreign policy conference in New Delhi.

"This idea that others define us, somehow we need to get the approval of other quarters, I think that is an era we need to put behind us," he added.

His comments come as India faces international criticism for its ties to Moscow.

At the conference, Jaishankar also criticized the West for its own shortcomings in defending the "rules-based order" during crises in Asia.

"The West should remember what happened in Afghanistan less than a year ago, where an entire civil society was thrown under the bus by the world," Jaishankar said.

"When the rules-based order was under challenge in Asia, the advice we got from Europe is: Do more trade. At least we're not giving you that advice," he added.

The West should remember what happened in Afghanistan less than a year ago, where an entire civil society was thrown under the bus by the world," Jaishankar said.

100% u pravu. I danas mislim da je ono bila nevidjena greska.

Fwiw

This afternoon Ukraine announced that it had liberated four more villages (Ruska Lozova, Slobidske, Prelesne and Verkhnia Rohanka) from the outskirts of Kharkiv. This follows the recapture of Momotove yesterday. Ukrainian forces continue to push Russia back from Kharkiv city. pic.twitter.com/MzR9tfPChG

— Nathan Ruser (@Nrg8000) April 30, 2022

Nisam siguran. Upravo strateski. Jedino mozda nije greska unutrasnjepoliticki.

Realno, za S and S

daj putine jednu taktičku, ne čekaj časa više, ali ne u ukrajinu....