Rat u Ukrajini

While previously it would have been hard to cast any retreat by Putin as anything but humiliating failure, it is now the US that stands to be embarrassed, and the credibility of its intelligence disclosures once again shattered, if Russia chooses an option other than invasion – or even simply continues to sit on the border as the dates named by the US come and go.

Cousin Billy wrote:O tome i ja razmišljam, to mi jebe postavku. Misaoni eksperiment: šta ako je odgovor jednostavniji nego što se čini na prvi pogled? Možda je oligarhiji u Moskvi u ovom trenutku potpuno svejedno da li će Rusija nekome biti smešna, i možda se dilovi prave na onom najprimitivnijem transakcionom nivou.

A da je zavera i igra - nije, to je sasvim očigledno. Ovo jeste rat koji već pravi štetu. Videćemo da li će se taj rat produžiti i oružanim sredstvima. Mislim i dalje da neće.

Izvinite što sam malo ispredragstorisao sada: iza ovoga što pišem stoji određeno iskustvo u vezi sa plasmanom informacija, i jednostavno neke vrlo bitne stvari ne izdržavaju scrutiny.

Bleeding Blitva wrote:Guardian kaže kako će se upravo Ameri sramotiti: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/14/the-west-invasion-ukraine-putin-russia?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

While previously it would have been hard to cast any retreat by Putin as anything but humiliating failure, it is now the US that stands to be embarrassed, and the credibility of its intelligence disclosures once again shattered, if Russia chooses an option other than invasion – or even simply continues to sit on the border as the dates named by the US come and go.

Cijena nafte je najviša u zadnjih 7 godina  i Rusi krcaju lovu , šteta takav trend napustiti nekakvom intervencijom i kojekakvim sankcijama?

Brought to you by the producers of famous interview such as ‘Hitler Mussolini’ and ‘Gonzalo Pinochet’, I introduce you to… pic.twitter.com/nFqSOwnrLS

— nassie (@n4ssie) February 13, 2022

Cousin Billy wrote:Cena nafte je takva da mogu da sebi da dozvole jednu mega vojnu vežbu i trolovanje Zapada.

I samo još jednom da ponovimo: Rusija nije nijednom rečju najavila invaziju ili agresiju na Ukrajinu. Da sada povuku vojsku u matične garnizone, ne bi morali to previše da objašnjavaju. Nema rata, nisu izvršili agresiju na suverenu državu, pokazali su vojnu i ekonomsku moć, super  Pričamo ponovo za pola godine, a naši zahtevi i dalje su na stolu.

Del Cap wrote:

Brought to you by the producers of famous interview such as ‘Hitler Mussolini’ and ‘Gonzalo Pinochet’, I introduce you to… pic.twitter.com/nFqSOwnrLS

— nassie (@n4ssie) February 13, 2022

Cousin Billy wrote:pa naravno da nije sve u parama, ja sam poslednji koji bi to tvrdio   ne podnosim "svejetozbognafte" redukcije. 


trupe će ubrzo ići u svoje garnizone, eto to verujem, na osnovu toga što i dalje ne vidim put koji vodi do rata, osim ako mi izmiče nešto jako bitno. videćemo uostalom vrlo brzo.

Cousin Billy wrote:Tvoje su analize odlične u smislu da prate vektor dostupnih informacija. Ono što dovodim u pitanje je ontologija celog tog sklopa informacija kojima raspolažemo. Umesto uvoda u rat, sada vidim ogroman, sveobuhvatni psy-op obe strane, koji izaziva posledice u realnom svetu - nanosi štetu, razara kompanije, smanjuje dividende, slabi vlade.

Cousin Billy wrote:Problem je zato što je jedan od stubova ruskog nastupa - insistiranje na tome da Moskva u svakom aspektu svog delovanja poštuje međunarodne sporazume, da ima moralni higher ground. I onda odjednom baraž po susednoj zemlji kao da je 1939. Ne uklapa se. Zato mi je ulazak u DLNR maksimum koji mogu da izmaštam.

Mór Thököly wrote:

Cousin Billy wrote:Problem je zato što je jedan od stubova ruskog nastupa - insistiranje na tome da Moskva u svakom aspektu svog delovanja poštuje međunarodne sporazume, da ima moralni higher ground. I onda odjednom baraž po susednoj zemlji kao da je 1939. Ne uklapa se. Zato mi je ulazak u DLNR maksimum koji mogu da izmaštam.

Samo da te podsetim da su se bez problema usetali na Krim. Referendum je bio posle.

Mór Thököly wrote:

Cousin Billy wrote:Problem je zato što je jedan od stubova ruskog nastupa - insistiranje na tome da Moskva u svakom aspektu svog delovanja poštuje međunarodne sporazume, da ima moralni higher ground. I onda odjednom baraž po susednoj zemlji kao da je 1939. Ne uklapa se. Zato mi je ulazak u DLNR maksimum koji mogu da izmaštam.

Samo da te podsetim da su se bez problema usetali na Krim. Referendum je bio posle.

Cousin Billy wrote:

Mór Thököly wrote:

Samo da te podsetim da su se bez problema usetali na Krim. Referendum je bio posle.

To je tačno. Inače volim taj referendum da zovem "referendumom", Bog zna zašto ali je na sajtu kremaljskog Saveta za ljudska prava (valjda se telo tako zvalo?) par godina stajao sasvim drugačiji rezultat referenduma od onog koji se prodavao u javnosti.

Source close to Zelensky told me the U.S. first warned his team of a Russian invasion last fall, putting the chances at 80%. The Ukrainians didn't buy it, but they saw an opportunity -- "more aid, more attention" -- and played along. Now they have regrets. Too much attention.

— Simon Shuster (@shustry) February 14, 2022

KYIV — German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy sought Monday to tamp down tension with Russia by suggesting that NATO membership for Ukraine was not on their agenda.

At a press conference in Kyiv, Scholz and Zelenskiy played down the likelihood of Ukraine joining the military alliance in the foreseeable future. With more than 100,000 Russian troops near Ukraine’s border, Russian President Vladimir Putin has declared that any further NATO expansion to the east would be “unacceptable” and demanded “security guarantees” for Moscow.

“The question of [Ukrainian] membership in alliances is practically not on the agenda,” Scholz said at the press conference, which followed a two-hour meeting between the leaders.

“And that is why it is strange to observe that the Russian government is making something that is practically not on the agenda the subject of major political problems,” Scholz added. “That is the great challenge that we actually face: That something that is not even on the agenda is being made an issue.”

While Scholz stressed that each country should be able to make decisions on which alliances to join, he said it was important to “look at the reality” and seek to de-escalate tensions, just days after the U.S. warned that a Russian invasion of Ukraine could be imminent.

Zelenskiy said NATO membership was a remote “dream” but added: “For us, NATO membership is not the absolute goal. That’s not a question that comes from us.”

The Ukrainian president also said that “the future of the European security architecture will be decided in Ukraine,” and added that his government was ready to discuss “guarantees” that could be included in this architecture to ensure Ukraine’s territorial integrity.

While Scholz stressed that the West was ready to hit Russia with “very far-reaching and effective sanctions” should it launch a fresh attack on Ukraine, he said he still hoped that peace talks could lead to a solution.

On that note, Scholz praised Zelenskiy for assuring him that Ukraine’s government would present “the relevant draft laws that we need for the continuation of the Minsk process,” a yet-to-be-implemented agreement to establish peace in eastern Ukraine, where a military conflict between Russian-backed separatists and Ukrainian forces has been ongoing since 2014.

Russia has accused Ukraine of not undertaking the necessary steps that could lead to a resolution of the conflict, such as elections in the disputed regions.

“This is a good process, which will help to ensure that there can be no pretexts [by Russia] in the necessary strategy for getting out of the situation that is now in a deadlock,” Scholz said. “Ukraine is making a very important contribution here, and I am very grateful for it.”

Scholz, who has been accused by critics at home and abroad of not doing enough to help Ukraine, also stressed that “no country has supported Ukraine more financially in the past eight years than Germany.” He added that Berlin would further support the country’s economy, which has suffered from the ongoing conflict and the threat of an invasion. This would take the form of an accelerated payout of a €150 million loan, as well as the provision of another loan of the same amount, he said.