Virus

I u Britaniji se omikron najpre zapatio kod mladih, 60% verovatnih uzoraka je iz starosnih grupa 20-29 i 30-39. Manje od 4% uzoraka s verovatnim omikronom potiču od osoba starijih od 60 godina.

#Omicron is most common in people in their 20's and 30's. Currently, about 60% of probable Omicron (SGTF) cases are in that age group, where serious illness is rare
< 4% are in the over 60's, so hospital numbers won't say much about serious illness in older people for a while

— Alastair Grant (@AlastairGrant4) December 11, 2021

In addition to the majority of Africa, Israel is adding three new banned "red" countries to its list: the UK, Belgium and Denmark.

Israelis may not travel there, foreigners from there may not enter and those who return must do 7 days quarantine even if they have three shots.

— Amy Spiro (@AmySpiro) December 12, 2021

Britanci digli nivo uzbune na 4, prvi put od maja.

The guidance on measures alongside the Covid Alert Levels (we were last at Level 4 back in May) demonstrate the government clearly isn’t doing anywhere near enough. At Level 2 you are supposed to have ‘minimal social distancing’ - do we have any at the moment at Level 4? https://t.co/zfWSSrmrNE pic.twitter.com/TodXaLkTKs

— Liam Young (@liamyoung) December 12, 2021

Сад су нам јавили да је код ћере у вртићу једна девојчица била у петак и да су јој данас потврдили вирус. Цела група треба да иде две недеље у карантин.

Планирамо да је водимо ујутро на брзи антигенски тест, има код нас у крају.
Да ли је довољно 3 дана од изложености да би резултат био позитиван?

rumbeando wrote:I u Britaniji se omikron najpre zapatio kod mladih, 60% verovatnih uzoraka je iz starosnih grupa 20-29 i 30-39. Manje od 4% uzoraka s verovatnim omikronom potiču od osoba starijih od 60 godina.

#Omicron is most common in people in their 20's and 30's. Currently, about 60% of probable Omicron (SGTF) cases are in that age group, where serious illness is rare
< 4% are in the over 60's, so hospital numbers won't say much about serious illness in older people for a while

— Alastair Grant (@AlastairGrant4) December 11, 2021

tja, ovde je univerzitet trazio od svih studenata da se testiraju bez obzira kako se osecaju. testiras mnogo mladih - dobijes mnogo pozitivnih testova kod mladih.

kako su ajvi i covek?

Raspodela omikrona (crno) i ostalih varijanti (zeleno) u apsolutnim brojevima (gore) i procentualno (dole) po starosnim grupama u Danskoj po najnovijem dnevnom izveštaju od 12.12.



https://files.ssi.dk/covid19/omikron/statusrapport/rapport-omikronvarianten-12122021-k29d

In South Korea, worst surge in Covid numbers since easing of restrictions last month. "According to official statistics, 29 patients died at home in the last five weeks without ever being admitted because no hospital had beds to accept them." https://t.co/ZDULTKGH5C

— Raphael Rashid (@koryodynasty) December 12, 2021

was dominant by July. “Omicron largely escapes prior immunity (from a transmission perspective)... Not a good situation to be in”. That is why trust in the PM at this critical moment is so important. See my blog https://t.co/OZbRHHugLo

— Robert Peston (@Peston) December 12, 2021

Recommendation: unless you have had a third dose, avoid situations that could lead to superspreader events, this includes higher risk locations that depend on vaccine certificates for entry.

— Bill Comeau (@Billius27) December 12, 2021

Od 4 osobe kojima je upravo potvrđen omikron u gradu Vašingtonu nijedna nije putovala van SAD.

NEW: D.C. Health confirmed four unrelated COVID-19 Omicron variant cases in the district. All four were fully vaccinated, however, their booster vaccine status is unknown. pic.twitter.com/MiK758RZhz

— Beatrice-Elizabeth Peterson (@MissBeaE) December 12, 2021

Veliki vrač se oglasio zanimljivom, inovativnom idejom da evolucija ima cilj i program. Ne, virusi ne mutiraju da postanu manje smrtonosni, oni mutiraju nasumično i boli ih kurac za stopu preživljavanja, a na duže staze će se održati ako imaju dovoljno domaćina, što je održivo i sa većom stopom smrtnosti nego što je ona kod Delte.

This is an improvement, not a catastrophe. Viruses mutate to become less deadly over time. When we're fortunate. Too/deadly viruses kill their hosts before they can be transmitted. Not good for the host. Or the virus @BretWeinstein right? https://t.co/gMUlTm333h

— Dr Jordan B Peterson (@jordanbpeterson) December 13, 2021

Pritom je u JAR po nekim procenama dosad bio 3,5x manje smrtonosan (i to bez kompenzacije razlika u prosečnoj starosti pacijenata, koje idu u korist omikronove manje smrtnosti), teško da je potpuno bezopasan.



https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1469338742523580416

u nastavku današnjih vesti iz nesvesti, i give you one and only Ana Gligić.

Virusolog Ana Gligić izjavila je da podaci pokazuju da korona gubi korak na održavanju na čoveku, ali mutacijama ona stiče snagu da opstane i problem je što se ne zna gde korona ima "rezervoare"

„Ona se zadržava kod ptica i domaćih životinja. Ptice su inkubatori za koronu. Čini mi se kao da se korona iznova javlja. Mutacije zavise od toga sa kog je domaćina korona potekla. Pre 15 ili 20 dana dobila sam podatak da je povećana smrtnost golubova i vrana na Novom Beogradu i to nešto govori“, rekla je Gligć za K1.

ptice su potpuno imune na Covid19. ne zaražavaju se, ne prenose, nijedan podatak iz sveta ne govori suprotno.

Možda je mislila na korona viruse, a ne na covid-19.

Želim javno da izrazim optimizam prema omikronu, mislim da pojava virusa sa visokom transmisijom a niskim efektima znači potencijalno slabljenje pa i kraj pandemije. 

Sad, šta dolazi posle o tome će dežurni katastrofolozi ovde...

Denmark has had, by my count, 18910 hospitalizations, and 548,000 cases. This is a rate of 3.45%. So, mild?

Nope. Vast bulk of hospitalizations were:

* Before vaccines
* Before natural immunity
* From when there was less testing (1st wave), so ratio artificially high

2/n

— Graeme Blake (@graemeblake) December 13, 2021

Now, a caveat. 8/27 out of the Danish Omicron cases were likely acquired in hospital. This surely applied to some past hospitalizations, but let’s remove them and recalculate:

19/2471 = 0.769% hospitalization rate

And more hospitalizations will develop and rate will rise

4/n

— Graeme Blake (@graemeblake) December 13, 2021

Which would make Omicron’s hospitalization rate exactly as bad as the ratio with Denmark’s recent cases. If more than 2x the hospitalizations develop, then Omicron will be *worse*

And remember I excluded all hospital acquired infections, which is over generous

6/n

— Graeme Blake (@graemeblake) December 13, 2021

Denmark Omicron hospitalizations here: https://t.co/retymRzNjP

General case and hospitalizations figured taken from Our World in Data

— Graeme Blake (@graemeblake) December 13, 2021

One possible mitigation factor: severity in hospital. South Africa reported shorter stays. Need to wait for data on that point.

— Graeme Blake (@graemeblake) December 13, 2021

Thank you for your efforts.
But you need to compare hospitalizations to cases from 2 weeks ago, to account for the laghttps://t.co/X8esh2Ytpv

— Foresight 🧐🧠🫀, not Hopium (@ForesightWisdom) December 13, 2021

This is very very bad news if the sample is representative

— Graeme Blake (@graemeblake) December 13, 2021

“Sadly one patient has been confirmed to have died with Omicron.”

Prime Minister Boris Johnson explains that Omicron is spiking in London and other parts of the country.

Get live #COVID19 updates: https://t.co/3mBokLtuC7 pic.twitter.com/myFluxeBlx

— Sky News (@SkyNews) December 13, 2021

They are spread around the country and ages range between 18-85 years. The majority had received 2 doses of vaccination.
One individual diagnosed in hospital has sadly died.

UKHSA Chief Medical Adviser Susan Hopkins: pic.twitter.com/AHawcEneFm

— UK Health Security Agency (@UKHSA) December 13, 2021

#Norway´s guesstimate:

If measures would bring 15% reduction of contacts, #Delta hospital admissions would finally go down (red line).#Omicron would still surge and cause hospitalisations. Blue line indicates *BEST* case (vaccines prevent most sickness)https://t.co/J0yWL1GCQN pic.twitter.com/xOYROMb6u3

— KlimaZen (@KlimaZen) December 13, 2021

While hospital admissions are one thing,#Norway also worries about the "wave of sick absence from work".

(don´t look at those numbers. They are worst-case)

This is meant to show that it´s necessary to act *now* (reduce contacts as much as possible).https://t.co/e8vOVhCHxw pic.twitter.com/3MqRDEjlRs

— KlimaZen (@KlimaZen) December 13, 2021

U novom danskom izveštaju kažu da je u periodu od 22.11. do 12.12. procentualno bilo više hospitalizacija u odnosu na slučajeve kod omikrona nego kod ostalih varijanti (tj. uglavnom delte).



https://files.ssi.dk/covid19/omikron/statusrapport/rapport-omikronvarianten-13122021-i30w

Što bi rekao pesnik, još se ništa ne zna

U istom izveštaju stoji i da je trenutno hospitalizovano svega 14 osoba s omikronom, dakle 23 od onih 37 iz gornje tabele je već izašlo iz bolnice, što verovatno znači da je i u Danskoj zadržavanje u bolnici kraće.



Takođe je data raspodela slučajeva omikrona i ostalih varijanti (uglavnom delte) po vakcinalnom statusu. Očekivano, omikronom se mnogo više više nego ranije zaražavaju i vakcinisani.



Vakcinalni presek za Dansku:

19,5% populacije je vakcinisano trima dozama
57,7% dvema dozama
2,6% jednom dozom
20% populacije je nevakcinisano (uglavnom deca i mladi)

Skoro 70% zaraženih omikronom u Danskoj mlađe je od 40 godina, najviše ih je između 20 i 29.

Denmark’s @SSI_dk just released a new risk assessment on #omicron.
It estimates that #omicron will become the dominant variant in Copenhagen this week with more than 10,000 cases per day expected - an all-time pandemic high.https://t.co/onqFOsSShV pic.twitter.com/7w8RIlTzjM

— Kai Kupferschmidt (@kakape) December 13, 2021

- there is a high risk that large numbers of staff at the hospitals will become infected at the same time and have to stay home
- there is a high risk that the capacity to test for infections will not be able to keep up with infections

— Kai Kupferschmidt (@kakape) December 13, 2021