Virus

Talason wrote:drugo, analize otpadnih voda u usa pokazuju daleko veći broj zaraženih nego što je registrovano, što bi moglo da znači da simptomi koje ljudi imaju nisu dovoljno ozbiljni da ih nateraju da odu kod lekara ili na testiranje

For those following the Boston-area wastewater data, the trend we're seeing is not unique to Boston: https://t.co/har8c6dLbU pic.twitter.com/XK0vJudeq9

— Biobot Analytics (@BiobotAnalytics) December 8, 2021

Greece decreases to 3 months recovery certificate. The Greek government has decided to decrease the validity of COVID-19 recovery certificates from six to three months, the ministry of health has announced. This measure is added to a series of moves to curb the Delta and Omicron.

— Piotr Mieczkowski (@piotrmiecz) December 9, 2021

1) Excellent work from an Austrian team around @janinekimpel and Doro von Laer. Same results as @sigallab and @CiesekSandra for Omicron neutralization but more data from heterologous prime-boost vaccination and convalescent individuals. https://t.co/X6LNKIQGOL

— Florian Krammer (@florian_krammer) December 8, 2021

3) Regarding Moderna versus Pfizer. The Pfizer samples were from early after 2nd vaccination, the Moderna ones a little bit further out. That may explain the difference. Janine can certainly clarify.

— Florian Krammer (@florian_krammer) December 9, 2021

Omicron confirmed in the Kleve district
Covid after trip to South Africa - two children seriously ill

The district of Kleve has the first clear evidence of the Omikron variant. The complete sequence analysis of a laboratory has now confirmed the suspicion for two index cases. These are a South African traveler and a contact person. Over the weekend, a laboratory had already substantiated the suspicion of the Omikron mutation for two other persons who were in South Africa, but had not yet definitively confirmed it.
The Kleve district has now identified 19 index cases linked to this outbreak. Among the contacts are children who have not yet been vaccinated. The adults are all fully immunized. Two children are severely ill. One adult has a severe course of illness. All other persons who have tested positive have so far had a comparatively mild course of the disease. Some are asymptomatic.
17 people tested positive come from Rees, one from Bedburg-Hau and one from Kevelaer. Among them are four South Africa travelers who had traveled in pairs but had contact with each other during the trip. For one of these persons, the omicron mutation has now been clearly confirmed. For two of them, the first laboratory results have at least confirmed the omicron suspicion. The laboratory result for the fourth person is currently still pending.  In addition, there is another person who was in South Africa and had contact with the two couples there. In addition, the Kleve district was able to determine seven initial contacts of the travelers. From this group comes the second person, for whom now the clear confirmation of the Omikron mutation is available. Finally, there are seven further contacts for whom a PCR test has meanwhile detected a corona infection.
The health department is commissioning further laboratory sequencing in the coming weeks for samples from index cases associated with the travelers returning from Rees. This will be done in all cases where it can be done without re-smear. Laboratories often do not keep samples. This means that cases that have already been confirmed would have to be swabbed again for sequencing. However, since the first swabs were taken days ago, the viral load might not be sufficient.
The investigation of additional contacts is ongoing. The health department is following the Robert Koch Institute's quarantine recommendations for suspected Omikron cases: Index cases and contacts are quarantined for 14 days in all cases. There is no way to shorten this time - even if there is complete immunization and freedom from symptoms.

Imagine a variant with little capacity for re-infection. The susceptible population is exposed to enough virus to infect. The infections include severe, moderate, mild disease, and asymptomatic infections. (Here I point out that these sketches are not to scale.) 2/8 pic.twitter.com/8rCcVMNLCJ

— Natalie E. Dean, PhD (@nataliexdean) December 9, 2021

When we restrict our attention to the observed cases, some fraction of these are severe. This calculation necessarily excludes any infections that were averted. 4/8 pic.twitter.com/R2kVzkpDRp

— Natalie E. Dean, PhD (@nataliexdean) December 9, 2021

So we can still calculate the fraction of cases that are severe, but this is now lower. It is not lower because there are fewer severe cases, but because there are more mild cases (re-infections). 6/8 pic.twitter.com/SEZrJ2adGj

— Natalie E. Dean, PhD (@nataliexdean) December 9, 2021

So when I look at data out of South Africa or elsewhere, I am thinking not just about the proportion of cases that are severe, but also the sheer number of severe cases, which demonstrates the public health impact of the variant. 8/ENDhttps://t.co/DgLD9QlcBh

— Natalie E. Dean, PhD (@nataliexdean) December 9, 2021

Switching to log scale here to understand the exponential growth of #COVID19 cases in Gauteng https://t.co/KSNwzVnGUp

2/6

— Ridhwaan Suliman (@rid1tweets) December 8, 2021

Confirmed #COVID19 cases in Gauteng still increasing, but the rate of increase has slowed, i.e. inflection point

See doubling time of cases during #4thWave here:https://t.co/uVbyejAl0q

4/6

— Ridhwaan Suliman (@rid1tweets) December 8, 2021

Final tweet for today: an update of new hospital admissions per week in Gauteng shown here:https://t.co/0JtjOCkPMB

6/6

— Ridhwaan Suliman (@rid1tweets) December 8, 2021

And, for those interested, here's a log scale version of the plot above:

Comparison of reported #COVID19 deaths during each wave in Gauteng shown on a semi-log scale pic.twitter.com/OOIfcsgbQx

— Ridhwaan Suliman (@rid1tweets) December 9, 2021

A group of seven Germans aged 25 to 39 have contracted the Omikron variant of the coronavirus in South Africa, although all have already received their booster vaccination. Wolfgang Preiser, a member of the research consortium that discovered the variant, told the Tagesspiegel newspaper. (...)
The individuals received these vaccines in this order:
Persons 1 to 5: Biontech, Biontech, Biontech.
Person 6: Biontech, Biontech, Moderna
Person 7: Astrazeneca, Biontech, Biontech
Booster vaccinations were administered to subjects between five and ten months after the second vaccinations. The booster vaccinations were at least one month but no more than two months ago. (...)
None of the seven Germans had to deal with a severe course of the infection. "Of course, one can now say: these are young people anyway. But you can already assume that at least a severe course is prevented," Preiser said.

“UKHSA also estimate that at the current observed doubling rate of between 2.5-3 days, by the end of this month, infections could exceed 1 million."

On Wednesday officials said they expected the variant to be dominant by Christmas based on current trends. https://t.co/PfXuychiXR

— Hafiz (@hafiz_11120) December 8, 2021

Cases of the Omicron variant could be spreading even faster in England than in South Africa, according to a senior scientific adviser, who warned that the variant was a “very severe setback” to hopes of bringing the pandemic under control.
Prof John Edmunds, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and a member of the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), said that plan B measures announced by the prime minister [Boris Johnson] were “absolutely not an overreaction” even if Omicron turned out to be milder than the current dominant variant. (...)
Speaking at the online event, Edmunds dismissed suggestions that the Omicron variant might be “good news” if it hospitalised people at only half the rate as the Delta variant. The hope comes largely from hospital admissions in South Africa, where the population is far younger than in the UK and so less likely to experience severe Covid illness in the first place. While the average age in the UK is just over 40, it is less than 28 in South Africa.
Edmunds said there was “not a shred of evidence” that Omicron was half as pathogenic as the Delta variant, but added that even if this were the case, it might not make the difference people hoped for. “This is a very severe setback. There is no question about that.”
“If you are worried about the time [at] which the NHS might start to get very stressed, then halving the hospitalisation rate means that buys you two to three days. I think it’s really silly to suggest this is good news; it couldn’t be further from that,” he added. “This is as bad news as you can possibly get, quite frankly.”
It will take several weeks for scientists to get a sense of how severe the disease is in the UK, where the vast majority of people have some immunity against earlier variants either through vaccination or previous infection. This week, Pfizer released data from a small lab study suggesting that three shots of its vaccine might hold up well against the Omicron variant, but Edmunds said it was the most optimistic of five or so studies he had seen on vaccine protection against the variant.
Despite the uncertainties, Edmunds said it was “absolutely critical” for people to get their booster doses “as rapidly as possible”: “I think it will help, and it will help very significantly, but I still think we are likely to be under quite a lot of pressure in a very short time.”

rumbeando wrote:​

A group of seven Germans aged 25 to 39 have contracted the Omikron variant of the coronavirus in South Africa, although all have already received their booster vaccination. Wolfgang Preiser, a member of the research consortium that discovered the variant, told the Tagesspiegel newspaper. (...)
The individuals received these vaccines in this order:
Persons 1 to 5: Biontech, Biontech, Biontech.
Person 6: Biontech, Biontech, Moderna
Person 7: Astrazeneca, Biontech, Biontech
Booster vaccinations were administered to subjects between five and ten months after the second vaccinations. The booster vaccinations were at least one month but no more than two months ago. (...)
None of the seven Germans had to deal with a severe course of the infection. "Of course, one can now say: these are young people anyway. But you can already assume that at least a severe course is prevented," Preiser said.

https://www.tagesspiegel.de/wissen/erste-berichtete-booster-durchbrueche-mit-omikron-sieben-junge-deutsche-infizieren-sich-in-suedafrika-trotz-dritt-impfung/27879838.html (prevod: Deepl)
​

Za pola godine u BiH je umrlo 39,69 odsto više ljudi nego u istom periodu 2020. godine, objavila je Agencija za statistiku BiH.U prvih šest mjeseci ove godine umrle su 25.243 osobe, što u odnosu na isti period 2020. pokazuje rast za 39,69 posto (prošle godine umrla je 18.071 osoba) navodi se u izvještaju agencije.Naša zemlju se, takođe, od samog početka objavljivanja podataka vezanih za smrtnost od korone, nalazi u samom vrhu- prva u Evropi i druga u svijetu, kažu najnoviji podaci.

🧵/Unpopular fact: rapid tests should *not* be used to rule out #COVID19 infection. A review of scientific data carried out by an independent team of international experts found that rapid antigen tests miss 28% to 51% of active infectionshttps://t.co/GmeNbUYDsU

— Jorge A. Caballero, MD (@DataDrivenMD) December 10, 2021

Cousin Billy wrote:Ovo nije istraživanje.

MNE wrote:šta god, ovo ne može da pretpostavi na osnovu 7 uzoraka

New: Omicron evidence paper from Scotland ????????????????????????

Estimates a 2.3 day doubling time and Omicron comprising 90% of cases in approximately 7 days time https://t.co/hWkkJ16hDi pic.twitter.com/f1RdMF2VZ2

— Meaghan Kall (@kallmemeg) December 10, 2021

Spoiler: