Virus
- Posts : 13817
Join date : 2016-02-01
- Post n°277
Re: Virus
U Italiji 61% pozitivnih na serološkom testiranju u dva mesta u okolini Bergama koja imaju najveći višak umrlih u odnosu na ranije godine, s tim da uzorak nije bio slučajan, već su testirani ljudi za koje je pretpostavljeno da su došli u kontakt s virusom.
Procenat zaraženih je stoga svakako precenjen u odnosu na celu provinciju Bergamo.
Međutim, čak i ako bismo uzeli da je ovaj procenat reprezentativan za ceo Bergamo (a očigledno nije) i da je smrtnost u Bergamu prosečna za celu Lombardiju, dobili bismo da je smrtnost u odnosu na sve slučajeve 0,3%.
Evo računice:
Lombardija ima 75.732 slučajeva, a 13.772 umrlih, što daje stopu smrtnosti od 18,2%.
https://github.com/pcm-dpc/COVID-19/blob/master/dati-regioni/dpc-covid19-ita-regioni-20200430.csv
Bergamo ima 11.313 slučajeva po zadnjim podacima.
https://github.com/pcm-dpc/COVID-19/blob/master/dati-province/dpc-covid19-ita-province-20200430.csv1
Po stopi smrtnosti za celu Lombardiju to daje 2057 umrlih, a razumno je pretpostaviti da ona teško može biti bolja pošto je u Bergamu zdravstveni sistem bio vrlo opterećen.
Provincija Bergamo ima 1.116.248 stanovnika.
https://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/Provincia_di_Bergamo
U odnosu na tih 61% kod kojih su detektovana antitela stopa smrtnosti bi bila 0,3% (2057 / (0,61 x 1.116.248)).
Dakle, realno je da je stopa smrtnosti u odnosu na sve slučajeve osetno veća od 0,3%, makar u Bergamu.
Serological tests on 750 citizens of Nembro and Alzano (northern Italy): 61% positive*https://t.co/aKZFzM2MsB
— Sandro Bottaro (@SSadnro) April 30, 2020
*tests performed on people exposed to the virus. the real figure might be somewhere between 20-40%
Excess deaths in selected towns in Northern Italy
— Ferdinando Giugliano (@FerdiGiugliano) April 1, 2020
1-21 March (2020 vs 2019)
Nembro (BG) +1000%
Alzano Lombardo (BG) +937.5%
Albino (BG) +725%
Codogno (LO) +480%
(h/t @lorepregliasco @naso29 @istat_it) #COVIDー19
Procenat zaraženih je stoga svakako precenjen u odnosu na celu provinciju Bergamo.
Međutim, čak i ako bismo uzeli da je ovaj procenat reprezentativan za ceo Bergamo (a očigledno nije) i da je smrtnost u Bergamu prosečna za celu Lombardiju, dobili bismo da je smrtnost u odnosu na sve slučajeve 0,3%.
Evo računice:
Lombardija ima 75.732 slučajeva, a 13.772 umrlih, što daje stopu smrtnosti od 18,2%.
https://github.com/pcm-dpc/COVID-19/blob/master/dati-regioni/dpc-covid19-ita-regioni-20200430.csv
Bergamo ima 11.313 slučajeva po zadnjim podacima.
https://github.com/pcm-dpc/COVID-19/blob/master/dati-province/dpc-covid19-ita-province-20200430.csv1
Po stopi smrtnosti za celu Lombardiju to daje 2057 umrlih, a razumno je pretpostaviti da ona teško može biti bolja pošto je u Bergamu zdravstveni sistem bio vrlo opterećen.
Provincija Bergamo ima 1.116.248 stanovnika.
https://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/Provincia_di_Bergamo
U odnosu na tih 61% kod kojih su detektovana antitela stopa smrtnosti bi bila 0,3% (2057 / (0,61 x 1.116.248)).
Dakle, realno je da je stopa smrtnosti u odnosu na sve slučajeve osetno veća od 0,3%, makar u Bergamu.
- Posts : 11341
Join date : 2014-10-28
- Post n°280
Re: Virus
Halászlé wrote:216/6100
prognoze?
305
još 7 preminulo
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most of us probably not getting better
but not getting better together
- Guest
- Post n°282
Re: Virus
Erzsébet Biszak wrote:Halászlé wrote:216/6100
prognoze?
305
još 7 preminulo
Ej sužen je opseg danas, reko AV oko 3%
- Guest
- Post n°283
Re: Virus
Da vidimo šta kažu Singapurćani.
https://thenextweb.com/neural/2020/04/29/ai-model-predicts-the-coronavirus-pandemic-will-end-in-december/
https://thenextweb.com/neural/2020/04/29/ai-model-predicts-the-coronavirus-pandemic-will-end-in-december/
- Posts : 7775
Join date : 2017-03-14
- Post n°284
Re: Virus
ai-model-predicts-the-coronavirus-pandemic-will-end-in-december/
taman kad dođe vakcina
taman kad dođe vakcina
- Posts : 13817
Join date : 2016-02-01
- Post n°285
Re: Virus
Uneseni podaci u taj singapurski model su barem delom netačni pošto u martu nikad nismo imali preko 200 kako stoji za 28.3 (u stvarnosti bilo 131), a ni tako malo da se ne vidi na grafiku kako stoji za 30.3 (u stvarnosti bilo 44), ali pretpostavljam da se pik ne bi značajno pomerio da su potpuno tačni.
- Guest
- Post n°286
Re: Virus
Pa kad kupuju kod kineza.....
Entire UK order of 250 Chinese ventilators ditched over danger to lives
Doctors found breathing kits were so badly made they feared they could kill patients
Chinese ventilators that ministers heralded as vital to the NHS’s efforts to tackle Covid-19 were badly built, unsuitable for use in hospitals and potentially dangerous for patients, it has emerged.
All of the devices in a consignment of 250 ventilators that arrived from China on 4 April posed such serious problems that they could not be used and were ditched.
Doctors in NHS hospitals in the West Midlands, among which the ventilators were shared, were so concerned that they wrote to Matt Hancock, the health secretary, warning that they could kill patients.
“We believe that if used, significant patient harm, including death, is likely,” they wrote in a letter, which was obtained by NBC News. “We look forward to the withdrawal and replacement of these ventilators with devices better able to provide intensive care ventilation for our patients.”
The medics warned the Department of Health and Social Care that the oxygen supply in the devices was “variable and unreliable”, their build quality was “basic”, the oxygen connection base was marked as “non-EU” and their fabric case made them hard to clean.
The machines were Shangrila 510 ventilators made by Beijing Aeonmed, a major manufacturer of ventilators in China. They were designed for use in ambulances not hospitals, the doctors said.
The day they arrived, Michael Gove, the Cabinet Office minister who is helping to co-ordinate the government’s response to the pandemic, thanked China for sending them.
“We’ve been buying invasive ventilators from partners abroad, including Germany and Switzerland, and today 300 new ventilators arrived from China. I’d like to thank the Chinese government,” he said at the government’s daily news conference, in comments that were widely reported.
However, hospitals that then received the devices could not get them to work, despite technical staff spending several days trying to do so. A senior official at one of the hospitals involved said: “All of the ventilators failed. Nothing worked. They didn’t have proper oxygen centres and the tubing didn’t fit. We were irate. All the hospitals tried to get them to work but we couldn’t.
“At the time we were really worried, because we feared that hospitals were going to be overwhelmed with patients with Covid-19 needing to be ventilated. Happily, as it turned out we didn’t get quite as many as originally expected so we didn’t need the Chinese ventilators after all, which is just as well.”
The ventilators were part of a government drive to increase the NHS’s supply of ventilators from the 8,000 it had before the virus struck, to 30,000, so that anyone needing one during the expected peak of the pandemic could have one while in intensive care. However, that target has since been reduced as hospitals have been able to manage the number of people with Covid-19 needing their care.
A well-placed NHS source said the incident highlighted problems that had occurred with a range of medical supplies and equipment ordered from China during the coronavirus pandemic.
“Some other stuff ordered from China recently, especially personal protective equipment, has also turned out to be either of a lesser quality than what we need or to be the wrong thing altogether, like T-shirts instead of long-sleeved surgical gowns,” they said.
“You have to be careful who you procure stuff from, because the supply and then what ultimately arrives can be very variable. But, then again, we didn’t have enough ventilators to start with because the government was unprepared for coronavirus, so we had to ask China to help.”
NBC News reported that it approached the international sales manager for Beijing Aeonmed, who said: “I don’t know,” when asked whether the company was aware of the concerns about its product, before the call ended.
A government spokesperson said: “The Shangrila 510 ventilator model is not being used in hospitals and no patients are at risk. Ventilators need to pass robust regulatory tests to ensure they are up to standard before they’re delivered to NHS hospitals.
“Our absolute priority in this global pandemic is saving lives and we are increasing our provision of ventilators to ensure the NHS continues to have the resources it needs, through procuring more ventilators from overseas, including over 4,000 from China, scaling up the production of existing or modified designs and working to design and manufacture new devices. We currently have around 10,900 mechanical ventilators available to NHS patients across the UK, as well as 4,300 non-invasive ventilators.”
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/apr/30/entire-order-of-250-chinese-ventilators-were-useless-despite
- Posts : 19213
Join date : 2014-12-12
- Post n°287
Re: Virus
Šangrila
Pa piše da je non-EU, šta je problem?
Pa piše da je non-EU, šta je problem?
- Guest
- Post n°291
Re: Virus
What epidemiologists most feared in Brazil happened. Coronavirus moved from richer neighborhoods to poorer ones, where it is proving deadlier and harder to control - with @G_Slattery + @AMPerobelli https://t.co/5zPPIJVZ4g
— Stephen Eisenhammer (@SEisenhammer) May 1, 2020
- Posts : 28265
Join date : 2015-03-20
- Post n°292
Re: Virus
mene malo boli grlo i imam cudne manifestacije u stomaku, nije bol vise neka neprijatnost i malo mucnina jutros
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#FreeFacu
Дакле, волео бих да се ЈСД Партизан угаси, али не и да сви (или било који) гробар умре.
- Guest
- Post n°294
Re: Virus
u više navrata sam osećao tako neke gluposti, na koje inače ne bih obraćao pažnju
a kad izađem napolje, uvek sam posle skenjan 24h
a kad izađem napolje, uvek sam posle skenjan 24h
- Posts : 13817
Join date : 2016-02-01
- Post n°296
Re: Virus
Halászlé wrote:196\5906
Konačno posle 8 dana opet ispod 200.
- Posts : 52542
Join date : 2017-11-16
- Post n°297
Re: Virus
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/01/us-germ-warfare-lab-creates-test-for-pre-infectious-covid-19-carriers
- Posts : 7775
Join date : 2017-03-14
- Post n°298
Re: Virus
imao sam baš takve simptome prije 20ak dana i to bez temperature, i znam još neke i u CG i u Srbiji koji su imali pa bih isključio da se stomačni virus raširio baš tolikoHalászlé wrote:Meni se malo manta i imam težinu u želucu
- Posts : 41649
Join date : 2012-02-12
Location : wife privilege
- Post n°300
Re: Virus
Захватио јесте, ал' на ширини није радио сам.
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electric pencil sharpener is useless, electric pencils don't need to be sharpened at all
И кажем себи у сну, еј бре коњу па ти ни немаш озвучење, имаш оне две кутијице око монитора, видећеш кад се пробудиш...