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Virus

rumbeando

Posts : 6485
Join date : 2016-02-01

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Post by rumbeando Fri Sep 10, 2021 3:10 pm

rumbeando

Posts : 6485
Join date : 2016-02-01

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Post by rumbeando Fri Sep 10, 2021 3:11 pm

6089 novih, 258 više nego juče na približno isti broj testiranih.
kondo

Posts : 22102
Join date : 2015-03-20

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Post by kondo Fri Sep 10, 2021 3:24 pm

Vi ste ludi ako mislite da ovo nije neka državna strategija. Makar se zvalo i kar bo pa bo, što 99.99% i jeste.



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Дакле, волео бих да се ЈСД Партизан угаси, али не и да сви (или било који) гробар умре.
disident

Posts : 12154
Join date : 2016-03-28

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Post by disident Fri Sep 10, 2021 3:38 pm

Sad je vec ona faza kada su mogucnosti testiranja i pregleda rastegnute, ogromne guzve,cekanja,odustajanja blazih slucajeva od cekanja. 
Sve to utiče na brojke koje dobijamo i stvarnu sitiaciju.


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Što se ostaloga tiče, smatram da Zapad treba razoriti
Jedini proleter Burundija
Pristalica krvne osvete
bela maca

Posts : 9061
Join date : 2014-10-28

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Post by bela maca Fri Sep 10, 2021 5:17 pm

braco mi je pozitivan na brzom testu Virus 1949538119
od simptoma ima malaksalost i kašalj
više od 6 meseci prošlo od vakcine, jebeni sinofarm
ne pomaže ni to što je lenštinu mrzelo da ide po buster.
nije mi svejedno iako racionalno znam da su šanse za nešto ozbiljno minimalne


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most of us probably not getting better
but not getting better together
Mór Thököly

Posts : 26940
Join date : 2017-11-16
Location : Nándor fehérvár

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Post by Mór Thököly Fri Sep 10, 2021 5:37 pm

Mlad je, bice ok. A i nekakvu zastitu ima od sinofarma.

Ogromno je zarazavanje i zato sam odustao od cekanja na modernu jos mesec dana.
Erős Pista

Posts : 65473
Join date : 2012-06-10

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Post by Erős Pista Fri Sep 10, 2021 5:42 pm

Zaista je ogromno. Moja keva odlozila vakcinaciju zbog neke glupe boljke i s njoj povezane terapije, i sad mi bas nije svejedno.


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"Oni kroz mene gledaju u vas! Oni kroz njega gledaju u vas! Oni kroz vas gledaju u mene... i u sve nas."

Dragoslav Bokan, Novi putevi oftalmologije
Erős Pista

Posts : 65473
Join date : 2012-06-10

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Post by Erős Pista Fri Sep 10, 2021 5:42 pm

Zaista je ogromno. Moja keva odlozila vakcinaciju zbog neke glupe boljke i s njoj povezane terapije, i sad mi bas nije svejedno.


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"Oni kroz mene gledaju u vas! Oni kroz njega gledaju u vas! Oni kroz vas gledaju u mene... i u sve nas."

Dragoslav Bokan, Novi putevi oftalmologije
Erős Pista

Posts : 65473
Join date : 2012-06-10

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Post by Erős Pista Fri Sep 10, 2021 5:54 pm

Evo sad je pozvah, primila fajzer danas.


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"Oni kroz mene gledaju u vas! Oni kroz njega gledaju u vas! Oni kroz vas gledaju u mene... i u sve nas."

Dragoslav Bokan, Novi putevi oftalmologije
rumbeando

Posts : 6485
Join date : 2016-02-01

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Post by rumbeando Fri Sep 10, 2021 5:58 pm

Najpogođeniji gradovi/mesta sa 60 i više novozaraženih po današnjim podacima. Zrenjanin i Subotica na spisku posle dužeg vremena.

Virus JGNYmWS

https://www.nedeljnik.rs/u-beogradu-vise-od-1-500-zarazenih-korona-presek-po-gradovima/


Last edited by rumbeando on Fri Sep 10, 2021 6:02 pm; edited 2 times in total
rumbeando

Posts : 6485
Join date : 2016-02-01

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Post by rumbeando Fri Sep 10, 2021 5:59 pm

rumbeando

Posts : 6485
Join date : 2016-02-01

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Post by rumbeando Fri Sep 10, 2021 6:59 pm

Počela štednja testova.

Downforce tamo:


Kolega danas bio da se testira u ambulanti. Vratili ga, kazu nema potrebe. Da dodje na testiranje samo ako bude imao teze simptome.
 
Devojka mu je pozitivna. Ona iz Bg-a, bila prosli vikend ovde u Su kod njega.
 
Ali lagano...nema veze...nema potrebe za trosenjem testova...
rumbeando

Posts : 6485
Join date : 2016-02-01

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Post by rumbeando Fri Sep 10, 2021 9:41 pm

Virus 7KcWcJH
Mór Thököly

Posts : 26940
Join date : 2017-11-16
Location : Nándor fehérvár

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Post by Mór Thököly Fri Sep 10, 2021 9:56 pm

Sta rade ovi Bugari jebote...

Nasi sad manje brljaju nego prethodnih puta. Realna cifra bih odokativno rekao da je samo duplo veca. Ali CG i SRB ne da kidaju sa novozarazenima nego razvaljuju. Ok, ni SLO nije sjajnabas, ali mi ubismo.
Mór Thököly

Posts : 26940
Join date : 2017-11-16
Location : Nándor fehérvár

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Post by Mór Thököly Fri Sep 10, 2021 9:56 pm

Mislim, ili mi testiramo vise od svih...
Mór Thököly

Posts : 26940
Join date : 2017-11-16
Location : Nándor fehérvár

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Post by Mór Thököly Fri Sep 10, 2021 9:57 pm

I zasto na slici stoji Slovenija, a ne stoji Grcka? Za Albaniju tek nije jasno.
Sotir

Posts : 6981
Join date : 2016-10-04

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Post by Sotir Fri Sep 10, 2021 10:25 pm

Ако мислиш на анализу односу заражених и преминулих, треба узети пар ствари у обзир:
- у анализи узети недељни просек, а не дневни број, да би се ублажиле варијације.
- за однос треба узети податке о зараженим око недељу дана пре броја преминулих - јер су се они тад заразили.
На пример, док број расте, имаћемо мањи проценат преминулих, а док опада чак и неколико пута већи.
Sotir

Posts : 6981
Join date : 2016-10-04

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Post by Sotir Fri Sep 10, 2021 10:29 pm

Код нас је проценат преминулих у односу на прошлу недељу око 0,8%. Реалан број ако је доста заражених младо уз пуно вакцинисаних.
0,4% колико је данас/данас је нереално ниско.
rumbeando

Posts : 6485
Join date : 2016-02-01

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Post by rumbeando Fri Sep 10, 2021 10:45 pm

Reklo bi se da su počeli da lažiraju i broj novozaraženih.

Aleksija iz Užica tamo:

ja opet moram da primetim neslaganje u podacima iz naseg lokalnog zavoda za javno zdravlje i ovih koji idu u medijima.

nas zzjz kaze za poslednja tri dana 108, 130, 151 (to je drasticno vise nego u najgorem talasu u decembru)
mediji kazu za poslednja tri dana    108, 114, 119

mislim, pominjala sam vec, ali su razlike ranije bile neznatne i mogle su da budu produkt razlicitih vremena kada se radi presek, ali sad vec ne znam...
rumbeando

Posts : 6485
Join date : 2016-02-01

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Post by rumbeando Fri Sep 10, 2021 10:49 pm

Srbi i Albanci najpošteniji, ostali lažno podižu smrtnost.  Virus 2304934895

Virus LlvmARt
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?tab=map&zoomToSelection=true&region=Europe&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=Case+fatality+rate&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false
Sotir

Posts : 6981
Join date : 2016-10-04

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Post by Sotir Fri Sep 10, 2021 10:55 pm

Е то је добар графикон.
Del Cap

Posts : 880
Join date : 2019-11-04

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Post by Del Cap Sun Sep 12, 2021 3:48 pm

https://twitter.com/kakape/status/1437036453507256325

Kai Kupferschmidt @kakape

Last week I met Jeremy Farrar in Berlin and since then I’ve kept going over some of what he said, since it seems pretty crucial for the next phase of the pandemic in Europe. So a quick thread
(You can also hear him say some of this in our new @pandemiapodcast episode)

At least in Europe, "what you're witnessing, I think at the moment is the shift from epidemic/pandemic state into an endemic state”, Farrar said.
“And none of us are really quite sure what that endemic state is going to look like.”

The argument is simple: #SARSCoV2 is clearly not going away any time soon. As vaccines blunt some of the impact of the virus at the societal level, #covid19 may still be terrible and still cause disease and death but maybe at a level society can or will or has to accept.

But what level of disease and death is deemed acceptable and thus what “endemic” looks like is going to differ from society to society. Farrar has been calling for an honest debate about this:  “I think all countries are going to have to have this debate.”

This goes far beyond Europe, of course. “If you are New Zealand, I don't know how you plot your exit from this” Farrar told me. “China's in an even harder position, because it's got 1.4 billion people and its vaccines are not as effective as the vaccines used in Europe.”

The problem: "I think that politicians across the world are sort of pretending you can have your cake and eat it: You can have zero deaths, no control measures, vaccinate if you want to or not vaccinate - and it will all end. I just don't think that's realistic.”

This is a crucial point: A country with a given vaccination coverage will have to accept either a certain level of death or a certain level of restrictions (or a mix).
Different countries may end up with different set points for endemic #covid19.

The countries that are likely worst off in the early part of this endemic phase are those like US where immunisations AND control measures like masking have become polarized.
With low immunization levels and few restrictions, they are stuck with high levels of disease and death.

I asked Farrar about the situation in the UK where about 100 people were dying a day of #covid19. What level of #covid19 deaths did he think the UK specifically might have to accept?

He said he was for lockdowns last year, "because the health consequences were so profound, 1000 deaths a day, 1200 deaths a day in the UK. It was just unacceptable, in my view, and the health system came very close to collapse …
But we're in a different world with vaccination.”

Without vaccines, there would be >1000 deaths a day in UK, he says."That's how dramatic the impact has been.”
But: "We're going to have to accept a certain number of ill health and deaths from COVID, as we do for malaria, as we do from flu. The question is, what is that level?"

So what number: "I think around 100 deaths a day, throughout the year, 30,000 deaths a year, in the current situation with the current vaccines, current treatments, current capacity within the system, I think is a level that would have to in the end be acceptable."

There are two big problems with all this, of course, that he acknowledges:
1. Long-term sequelae of #covid19 (long covid)
2. Letting the virus replicate means letting new variants evolve


So what are the key takeaways?
1. Vaccinate, vaccinate, vaccinate: That is what gets you out of the worst of this
2. If you don’t vaccinate enough, you will end up with tough measures or a lot of deaths, probably both.
3. Be honest about this in public.
boomer crook

Posts : 29187
Join date : 2014-10-27

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Post by boomer crook Sun Sep 12, 2021 5:27 pm

100 dnevno na globalnom nivou? to je prilicno optimisticno.


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The law provides us structure to guide us through paralyzing and trying times. But it requires us a vision to its procedures and higher purposes. Before we assume our respective roles in this enduring drama just let me say that when these frail shadows we inhabit now have quit the stage we'll meet and raise a glass again together in Valhalla.
Cousin Billy
Korisnik
Korisnik

Posts : 1015
Join date : 2020-02-17

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Post by Cousin Billy Sun Sep 12, 2021 5:40 pm

100 dnevno u UK.
Kao 10 dnevno kod nas.


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Three six nine, the goose drank wine. 
The monkey chew tobacco on the street car line. 
The line broke, the monkey got choked 
and they all went to heaven in a little rowboat
Mór Thököly

Posts : 26940
Join date : 2017-11-16
Location : Nándor fehérvár

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Post by Mór Thököly Sun Sep 12, 2021 5:51 pm

To je ok, u proseku, za narednih tipa godinu dana. Ako ce tako biti recimo 5-6 godina, to je propast i za zdravlje i za ekonomiju

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