Rat u Ukrajini

PODGORICA - Pripadnici crngorske granične policije sprečili su krijumčarenje 52 državljanina Turske preko Jadranskog mora u jedrilici "Marina", pišu Vijesti, navodeći da je plovila pod zastavom Hrvatske, a da su članovi posade državljani Srbije.
Prema nezvaničnim saznanjima iz Uprave policije, jedrilica je presretnuta sinoć u međunarodnim vodama službenim plovilom Patrolne jedinice.

Notxor wrote:E, vidi vest od pre 2 godine

PODGORICA - Pripadnici crngorske granične policije sprečili su krijumčarenje 52 državljanina Turske preko Jadranskog mora u jedrilici "Marina", pišu Vijesti, navodeći da je plovila pod zastavom Hrvatske, a da su članovi posade državljani Srbije.
Prema nezvaničnim saznanjima iz Uprave policije, jedrilica je presretnuta sinoć u međunarodnim vodama službenim plovilom Patrolne jedinice.

‘Ukraine doesn’t have any time to waste’: U.S. races to prepare Kyiv for spring offensive
Washington is increasingly concerned about Ukraine’s dwindling supply of ammo and air defenses.


The U.S. military is rushing equipment to the battlefield and training Ukrainian forces at a rapid pace, ahead of a major offensive against Russia expected by late spring.

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin projected a sense of urgency on Wednesday after a virtual meeting of the multinational Ukraine Defense Contact Group, saying that “Ukraine doesn’t have any time to waste.”

“We have to deliver swiftly and fully on our promised commitments,” Austin said. “That includes delivering our armored capabilities to the battlefield and ensuring that Ukrainian soldiers get the training, spare parts and maintenance support that they need to use these new systems, as soon as possible.”

As spring approaches, U.S. officials are increasingly concerned about Ukraine’s dwindling supply of ammunition, air defenses and experienced soldiers. Moscow and Kyiv are continuing to throw bodies into the fight for a southeastern city the U.S. does not consider strategically important. But the Pentagon says that regardless of Kyiv’s battlefield strategy, the U.S. wants Ukraine’s soldiers to have the weapons they need to keep fighting.

Russia has spent months pummeling the country with missiles, seeking not only to cause destruction but also deplete Ukraine’s air defense stocks. Ukrainian soldiers have described acute shortages of basic ammunition, including mortar rounds and artillery shells. And upwards of 100,000 Ukrainian forces have died in the year-long war, U.S. officials estimate, including the most experienced soldiers.

Many of these losses are taking place in Bakhmut, where both sides are suffering massive casualties. Led by soldiers from the mercenary Wagner Group, Russia has laid siege to the southeastern city for nine months, reducing it to ruins. Ukrainian forces have refused to yield, with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy insisting that defending Bakhmut is key to holding other eastern cities.

“The Russians clearly are wanting to press forward to the boundaries of Donetsk all of the way to the west, and to do that they need to get hold of Bakhmut and the road network that goes past it,” said Dara Massicot, senior policy researcher at the RAND Institute.

But Austin recently told reporters that Bakhmut is “more of a symbolic value than it is strategic and operational value.”

Instead, U.S. officials are more focused on getting Ukraine ready for a major spring offensive to retake territory, which they expect to begin by May. Hundreds of Western tanks and armored vehicles, including for the first time eight armored vehicles that can launch bridges and allow troops to cross rivers, are en route to Ukraine for the offensive. The U.S. and European partners are also flowing massive amounts of ammunition and 155mm shells, which Ukraine has identified as its most urgent need.

U.S. aid packages “going back four or five months have been geared toward what Ukraine needs for this counteroffensive,” said one U.S. official, who was granted anonymity due to the administration’s ground rules.

While U.S. officials are careful not to appear to tell Kyiv how to fight the war, Pentagon leaders said Wednesday that the equipment and training being provided will enable Ukraine to win the war — where and when it chooses to do so.

“There is a significant ongoing effort to build up the Ukrainian military in terms of equipment, munitions and training in a variety of countries in order to enable Ukraine to defend itself,” said Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. Mark Milley.

“The increased Ukrainian capability will allow the Ukrainian leadership to develop and execute a variety of options in the future, to achieve their objectives and bring this war to a successful conclusion,” Milley said.

More than 600 Ukrainians in February completed a five-week training program in Germany that included basic skills such as marksmanship, along with medical training and instruction on combined arms maneuver with U.S.-made Bradley Fighting Vehicles and Stryker armored personnel carriers. Those forces are now back on the battlefield, and a second batch of hundreds of additional soldiers are now going through the program.

Behind closed doors, U.S. officials have been pressing Kyiv to conserve artillery shells and fire in a more targeted fashion. This is a particular concern in Bakhmut, where both sides are expending munitions at a rapid pace.

“Some in the Pentagon think that they are burning up ammunition too fast,” said retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, former commander of U.S. Army Forces Europe. “Excuse me, they’re in a massive fight for the survival of their country against an enemy that has huge advantages in artillery ammunition and is not letting up.”

Kyiv has not yet settled on a strategy, U.S. officials said, but it has essentially two options: push south through Kherson into Crimea, or move east from its northern position and then south, cutting off the Russian land bridge. The first option is not realistic, officials said, as Russia has dug in its defenses on the east side of the Dnipro River, and Ukraine does not have the manpower for a successful amphibious operation against that kind of force. The second is more likely, officials say.

In addition to sending weapons and providing training, senior American generals hosted Ukrainian military officials in Wiesbaden, Germany this month for a set of tabletop exercises to help Kyiv wargame the next phase of the war.

President Joe Biden last month ruled out sending F-16 fighter jets, and senior U.S. officials have repeatedly said the aircrafts are not in the cards right now. But officials are working on other ways to boost the Ukrainian air force, including attempting to mount advanced medium-range air-to-air missiles on its Soviet-era MiG-29s, and assessing the skills of Ukrainian pilots.

Two Ukrainian pilots recently wrapped up an assessment at an Air National Guard base in Tucson, Arizona, for U.S. military instructors to assess what training they need to better employ the aircrafts and capabilities the West has already provided, including bombs, missiles and guidance kits. The program included simulator flights, but the pilots did not fly in American aircrafts, officials said.

An effort to mount AMRAAMs on the MiGs, if it proves successful, could also significantly increase the ability of Ukraine’s fighter pilots to take out Russian missiles, officials said.

As quickly as Ukraine is running out of munitions, Russia’s human and equipment losses are even more acute, forcing Moscow to appeal to rogue nations such as Iran for additional weapons.

“Russia remains isolated, their military stocks are rapidly depleting, the soldiers are demoralized, untrained unmotivated conscripts in convicts and their leadership is failing them,” Milley said.

Publicly, senior officials say it is up to Zelenskyy when and where to launch a new offensive, and whether to remain in Bakhmut or reposition his forces.

“President Zelensky is fighting this fight, and he will make the calls on what’s important and what’s not,” Austin said. But he noted that: “We’re generating combat power, to a degree that we believe that it will provide them opportunities to change the dynamics on the battlefield, at some point going forward, whatever point that is.”

NEW: We spent the last few weeks identifying ~30 Wagner convict fighters who returned from Ukraine and received their pardons. Five agreed to talk to us. What resulted is the most detailed insider account of Wagner's prisoner army yet published @Reuters https://t.co/8R849i7gIj

— Felix Light (@felix_light) March 16, 2023

Polish Ambassador to France, Jan Emeryk Rościszewski:

If Ukraine fails to defend its independence, we will have no choice, we will be forced to enter into the conflict. pic.twitter.com/63Wk44nRTQ

— Clash Report (@clashreport) March 19, 2023

but only a warning about the consequences that a defeat for Ukraine could have - the possibility of Russia attacking or involving the countries of the Baltic countries and Poland in the war.

— Clash Report (@clashreport) March 19, 2023

️ "Si l'Ukraine ne parvient pas à défendre son indépendance, nous n'aurons pas le choix, nous serons obligés de rentrer dans le conflit", déclare Jan Emeryk Rościszewski, ambassadeur de Pologne en France

#Le20HdeDariusRochebin - @DariusRochebin pic.twitter.com/Lj8qWOkkaO

— LCI (@LCI) March 18, 2023

Ahead of a meeting between Putin and Xi, White House NSC spokesperson John Kirby declares that any "call for a ceasefire" in Ukraine is "unacceptable." pic.twitter.com/Z1MUvdlTwS

— Aaron Maté (@aaronjmate) March 20, 2023

Europe needs to manufacture more weapons, and Brussels thinks it can make that happen by throwing money at it.

But the industry has a far more fundamental issue: a chronic shortage of gunpowder and TNThttps://t.co/y2Fbccberc

— Henry Foy (@HenryJFoy) March 19, 2023

Prices of shells are already 20% higher than a year ago & officials say throwing billions of euros at the same capacity will just push them higher, not make more.

Our in-depth report w @barneyjopson @GuyChazan @RaphaelMinder @AmyKazmin https://t.co/y2Fbccberc @FinancialTimes

— Henry Foy (@HenryJFoy) March 19, 2023

A great counter-offensive? Czech President: Ukraine will only have one attempt
Czech President Petr Pavel tells Jerzy Haszczynski that Ukraine will only have one attempt at a counter-offensive. (...)

"Rzeczpospolita": Perhaps some Western countries are thinking about Ukraine giving up part of its territory? 
President Pavel:   I would never encourage Ukraine to abandon part of its territory, to make some concessions. If the Ukrainians ever decide to do that, it will be their decision alone. We should not push Kiev in any direction, nor should we make concessions, or fight to the last man. We can support Ukrainians as much as possible, but we cannot give them plans for the future. We can only give them our help.

• So all kinds of weapons?
Anything that will help them achieve their goals. If the goal is to liberate the entire territory, let's give them everything they need. Though of course there are limits. There are also limitations on the part of Ukraine, because, for example, human resources are not infinite. Western aid also has limits. We have to be realistic, accept that there is an election in the United States next year. After previous election campaigns in the USA, it is clear that the society and politicians focus more on internal matters during them. Even if there is an important global topic in the upcoming campaign, it will not be related to Europe, but to US-Chinese relations. America's interest in Ukraine and the level of aid may decline next year. And when America's interest wanes, many European countries will do the same. (…) 

• You mention these restrictions on the side of the West, including those related to the elections in the USA. So how much time do the Ukrainians have to launch a great counter-offensive to drive the Russians out of their territory?
This should happen within a few months. The window of opportunity is open this year. After next winter, it will be extremely difficult to maintain the current level of aid. War fatigue is not only the exhaustion of human resources and equipment, the destruction of infrastructure in Ukraine, but also fatigue in the countries that provide aid. Many countries, many politicians expect some progress this year. I believe that Ukraine will have only one attempt to launch a major counter-offensive. Therefore, if it decides to launch a major counter-offensive and it fails, it will be extremely difficult to obtain funds for the next one.

Filipenko wrote:Ne znam, nisam optimista. Kao sto je napala Rusiju, kada bude zavrsila sa njom, Ukrajina ce napasti Moldaviju, Poljsku, danas su zapretili da de se posle rata obracunati sa svim zemljama koje su se lose drzale prema njoj...