Rat u Ukrajini

Verovatno je to taj napad na komandne centre kojim su pretili...

Те люди, которых уже госпитализировали, находятся в удовлетворительном состоянии / фото ГСЧС



Часть жителей дома в Шевченковском районе эвакуировали, продолжаются поисково-спасательные работы.
Вследствие вражеских ударов по Киеву госпитализировали двух человек. Под завалами дома, куда попала ракета оккупантов, остаются люди.

Hm, ne bih da me protumacite pogresno, ali rakete koje Rusi koriste ovakve objekte urusavaju. Ovo je premalo strukturnih ostecenja, cak ni svi prozori nisu ulupani, meni deluje kao konvencionalna artiljerija. Da nisu Rusi opet prisli Kijevu?

Navodno su ponovo gađali Zavod Artem koji se nalazi tamo gde su Ukrajinci rekli da su rakete pale.
Ukrajinci su javili o 14 ispaljenih raketa, 4 eksplozije (?) i da su jednu raketu oborili.

Има снимак из другог угла, види се да је пар спратова полупано.

За урушавање, зграде из совјетског доба су рађене монтажом и кад крене лом лако иде серијски.

Новија градња је армирани бетон и ређе долази до серијског ломљења.
Ово је на сву срећу нова градња.

Iza rašista ostaju raševine.

Nolan Peterson
@nolanwpeterson
·
7m
Sounds of more explosions just now in Kyiv.

Much of this work happens outside Ukraine, at bases in Germany, France and Britain, for example. But even as the Biden administration has declared it will not deploy American troops to Ukraine, some C.I.A. personnel have continued to operate in the country secretly, mostly in the capital, Kyiv, directing much of the vast amounts of intelligence the United States is sharing with Ukrainian forces, according to current and former officials.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/25/us/politics/commandos-russia-ukraine.html

Photo of the day: Ukrainian troops in Severodonetsk by Johanna-Maria Fritz pic.twitter.com/uoiI2RhYZo

— Tanya Kozyreva (@TanyaKozyreva) June 24, 2022

Za to vreme slična ekipa sa druge strane dolazi na smenu.



edit: kropovano

Mór Thököly wrote:Verovatno je to taj napad na komandne centre kojim su pretili...

Napali su są jos mnogo vise projektila sirom Ukrajine - verovatno osveta i izraz nemoci.
 
Ocigledno im se ne svidja sta se trenutno desava u Donbasu i sta sledi - Himars sistemi su stigli pre dva dana i od tada:
- pogodjeno jedno od tri glavna Donbaska skladista u Svatovima, 60km od fronta
- unisten komandni centar 20 armije u Izjumu
- skladiste u Sniznu oko 35km od fronta
- regularna dalekometna artiljerija je uz to unistila celu Uragan bateriju
- ko zna sta im se desava sa zeleznickim prugama po dubini jer se to sada Himarsom moze skoro totalno onesposobiti a kljucno je za rusku artiljeriju
Sa sada su stigla tek 4 sistema, jos 4 stizu a 10 posada je obuceno. Dodatni slicni sistemi im dolaze i od drugih. Koordinate dobijaju i od US satelita.
Cak i ovaj mali broj moze da napravi rusvaj ako se koordinate kljucnih ciljeva daju na vreme i ako imaju dobru logistiku. Price o potrebnih 100 MLRS su gluposti. Logistika i preciznost su glavno. Sve u svemu, od sada ce ruska artiljerija biti u mnogo vecoj opasnosti uz problematicno snadbevanje sto je jako dobra vest za civile po Harkovu, Slovjansku, Kramatorsku i Mikolajevu. 
 
U medjuvremenu je Putin opet nesto menjao po komandi svoje armije jer ocigledno nije zadovoljan. Dvornikova vise nema i postavljeni su novi likovi.
Zauzeli su SD ali svaka osnovna doktrina diktira da su prvo trebali da okruze iz pravca Limana i Popasne sto im ne ide vec mesec dana.
Napadac po ulicnim borbama uvek gubi mnogo vise i sada prakticno pola Putinove armije (vise od 50 BTG-a) i dalje krvavi na relativno malom delu fronta.
Ostalih 2000km fronta su time otvoreni i bice ih tesko braniti ako im Ukrajinci uspesno budu gadjali artiljeriju, dok je avijacija relativno slaba.

Del Cap wrote:Miršajmer, nisu mu nepoznati opšti stavovi a ovde ima dodatne elaboracije i prognoze

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/causes-and-consequences-ukraine-crisis-203182

The Causes and Consequences of the Ukraine Crisis
The war in Ukraine is a multi-dimensional disaster, which is likely to get much worse in the foreseeable future.

by John J. Mearsheimer


...
I will make two main arguments today.

First, the United States is principally responsible for causing the Ukraine crisis. This is not to deny that Putin started the war and that he is responsible for Russia’s conduct of the war. Nor is it to deny that America’s allies bear some responsibility, but they largely follow Washington’s lead on Ukraine. My central claim is that the United States has pushed forward policies toward Ukraine that Putin and other Russian leaders see as an existential threat, a point they have made repeatedly for many years. Specifically, I am talking about America’s obsession with bringing Ukraine into NATO and making it a Western bulwark on Russia’s border. The Biden administration was unwilling to eliminate that threat through diplomacy and indeed in 2021 recommitted the United States to bringing Ukraine into NATO. Putin responded by invading Ukraine on February 24th of this year.

Second, the Biden administration has reacted to the outbreak of war by doubling down against Russia. Washington and its Western allies are committed to decisively defeating Russia in Ukraine and employing comprehensive sanctions to greatly weaken Russian power. The United States is not seriously interested in finding a diplomatic solution to the war, which means the war is likely to drag on for months if not years. In the process, Ukraine, which has already suffered grievously, is going to experience even greater harm. In essence, the United States is helping lead Ukraine down the primrose path. Furthermore, there is a danger that the war will escalate, as NATO might get dragged into the fighting and nuclear weapons might be used. We are living in perilous times.
...

Where Are We Now & Where Are We Going?

The Ukraine war has been raging for almost four months I would like to now offer some observations about what has happened so far and where the war might be headed. I will address three specific issues: 1) the consequences of the war for Ukraine; 2) the prospects for escalation—to include nuclear escalation; and 3) the prospects for ending the war in the foreseeable future.

This war is an unmitigated disaster for Ukraine. As I noted earlier, Putin made it clear in 2008 that Russia would wreck Ukraine to prevent it from joining NATO. He is delivering on that promise. Russian forces have conquered 20 percent of Ukrainian territory and destroyed or badly damaged many Ukrainian cities and towns. More than 6.5 million Ukrainians have fled the country, while more than 8 million have been internally displaced. Many thousands of Ukrainians—including innocent civilians—are dead or badly wounded and the Ukrainian economy is in shambles. The World Bank estimates that Ukraine’s economy will shrink by almost 50 percent over the course of 2022. Estimates are that approximately 100 billion dollars’ worth of damage has been inflicted on Ukraine and that it will take close to a trillion dollars to rebuild the country. In the meantime, Kyiv requires about $5 billion of aid every month just to keep the government running.

Furthermore, there appears to be little hope that Ukraine will be able to regain use of its ports on the Azov and Black Seas anytime soon. Before the war, roughly 70 percent of all Ukrainian exports and imports—and 98 percent of its grain exports—moved through these ports. This is the basic situation after less than 4 months of fighting. It is downright scary to contemplate what Ukraine will look like if this war drags on for a few more years.

So, what are the prospects for negotiating a peace agreement and ending the war in the next few months? I am sorry to say that I see no way this war ends anytime soon, a view shared by prominent policymakers like General Mark Milley, the Chairman of the JCS, and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg. The main reason for my pessimism is that both Russia and the United States are deeply committed to winning the war and it is impossible to fashion an agreement where both sides win. To be more specific, the key to a settlement from Russia’s perspective is making Ukraine a neutral state, ending the prospect of integrating Kyiv into the West. But that outcome is unacceptable to the Biden administration and a large portion of the American foreign policy establishment, because it would represent a victory for Russia.

Ukrainian leaders have agency of course, and one might hope that they will push for neutralization to spare their country further harm. Indeed, Zelensky briefly mentioned this possibility in the early days of the war, but he never seriously pursued it. There is little chance, however, that Kyiv will push for neutralization, because the ultra-nationalists in Ukraine, who wield significant political power, have zero interest in yielding to any of Russia’s demands, especially one that dictates Ukraine’s political alignment with the outside world. The Biden administration and the countries on NATO’s eastern flank—like Poland and the Baltic states—are likely to support Ukraine’s ultra-nationalists on this issue.

Gde nam je bio ovaj pre 30 godina da nam kaže kako je prevashodno Amerika kriva za rat u Bosni, a kriv je podjednako i Alija što nije hteo sporazum sa Srbima što mu je na astal doneo Tunjo godinu dana pred rat.

Док је глогиња, Амери ће налазити извођаче радова и кривце за њих.

Vilmos Tehenészfiú wrote:

Del Cap wrote:Miršajmer, nisu mu nepoznati opšti stavovi a ovde ima dodatne elaboracije i prognoze

Gde nam je bio ovaj pre 30 godina da nam kaže kako je prevashodno Amerika kriva za rat u Bosni, a kriv je podjednako i Alija što nije hteo sporazum sa Srbima što mu je na astal doneo Tunjo godinu dana pred rat.

Ne važi se to za buraniju, realizam se važi samo za great powers.

Ma jede govna pisac, to sam hteo da kažem.

Hungary has called for immediate peace talks to end the war between Ukraine and Russia, warning that a prolonged conflict will fuel an economic crisis that will imperil governments across Europe.

Ugrožena mađarska vlada?

A swift ceasefire in the four-month-long war is Europe’s “only chance” to avoid a crippling recession, said Balázs Orbán, political director for Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán, forecasting that other EU governments will shift from backing Ukraine militarily towards “rationality” and a rapid end to the conflict in the next few months.
“But I would make a bet with you [on] how it will look in four months’ time . . . more rationality will come up,” he said.
“The realities of utility cost prices, energy, political destabilisation, the suffering of the middle class, it will just be an everyday [problem],” said Orbán, who is no relation of the prime minister. “In Portugal or in Spain, people will not accept the fact they are at war because they are far away . . . So it will cause political tension for sure.”
Orbán said Budapest condemned Russia’s invasion but, in contrast to other EU states agitating for Putin’s defeat, added that “right now is the time to sit down, to relax . . . our main target should be in the upcoming months, negotiations, peace, ceasefire, peace”.
“We’re not being a troublemaker. But if you try to do politics without realities, you will just lose the people’s confidence,” he said. “And that is the fear we have right now, that if we look around there are no honest discussions about the current situation.”

e, mutava si.

Јанко, види са Десанком, можда може да помогне.

Russian national security documents reveal that Putin understood years ago that climate change and geopolitical disruptions would lead to radical changes in energy and commodity markets, therefore requiring Russia to diversify its economy.

On energy, two fundamental aspects defined the Russian outlook. One is that hydrocarbons would remain fundamental to the world’s economy and the biggest demand would emanate from Asia. Russia therefore needed to pivot efforts in the direction of new markets and partnerships.

The second is that Russia understood European efforts to move toward a renewable-based energy mix that relies on critical raw materials such as rare earths. Russia is rich in many such materials. Not just that: modern day Russia aims to recover the Soviet-era industrial and export power in terms of critical materials.

In Putin’s mind, recovering this ability is key to ensuring that Russia is able to tilt the global balance of power in its favor, compete with China, and undermine the transatlantic relationship.

In fact, the economic diversification strategy, the critical raw materials strategy, the national security one and the regional strategies all link back to a specific aim: enhancing Russian military and defense position, and ensuring geoeconomic relevance.

Russia’s aim requires three things: developing its industrial base at home; eyeing resource-rich countries which it can either control or cooperate closely with on its own terms; and creating partnerships with countries across the world that own resources complementary to those Russia can directly control.

Brazil, for example, falls into the latter basket, while Kazakhstan and the Arctic fall into the former.

Where does Ukraine fit in all this?

With an estimated mineral wealth of over €6.7 trillion ($7 trillion), Ukraine had struck a strategic partnership on raw materials with the EU in July 2021 to develop and diversify supply chains for critical materials.

The only other country the EU had turned to for such a partnership is Canada. That partnership was designed to support the EU’s decarbonization and deepen ties between the EU and Ukraine. Since a number of Ukraine’s minerals are located in the eastern part of the country, which Russia now occupies, the future of the partnership is unclear.

What is clear, however, is Russia’s intention to gain access to the resources that the EU needs in order to deliver on its climate law—a fundamental aspect of European social pacts under the Green Deal. The use of force and the instrumentalization of conflict and war are central to Russia’s strategy.

It is not only in Ukraine that such a pattern is observable. The Wagner Group—a mercenary company unofficially related to the Kremlin whose owner also directs extractive companies like Lobaye Invest—is now present in African countries with significant mineral resources, such as Mozambique, Madagascar, the Central African Republic, and Mali.

Even more strikingly, Russia is concluding more defense partnerships that include topographic and hydrological research, such as with Cameroon or Zimbabwe.

https://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/87319

Rusi ratuju za resurse? 

Ima li tu koga da ratuje za demokratiju ili mora opet USA da se angažuje? 

UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT ZELENSKIY TOLD G7 LEADERS HE WANTED TO END WAR BY END OF YEAR BEFORE WINTER SETS IN - TWO EU DIPLOMATS

onda zašto ne sad

Del Cap wrote:UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT ZELENSKIY TOLD G7 LEADERS HE WANTED TO END WAR BY END OF YEAR BEFORE WINTER SETS IN - TWO EU DIPLOMATS

Daj bože, ali bojim se da se možda ne radi o diplomatskom pritisku.

Individual consumers and companies need to "immediately" limit their energy consumption in order to be better equipped this winter to deal with a looming energy crisis, the heads of French energy giants Engie, EDF and TotalEnergies said in a publication.https://t.co/dmF5khw3IB

— Velina Tchakarova (@vtchakarova) June 26, 2022

Following announcements by Austria, Germany and the Netherlands, France's energy transition ministry said it was considering reopening a coal-fired power station this winter due to the war in Ukrainehttps://t.co/pcFWf3C1Yw

— AFP News Agency (@AFP) June 26, 2022

zeleni na aparatima...koji su zbog štednje ugašeni