Rat u Ukrajini

Anduril wrote:

Mór Thököly wrote:Zapravo to sto ne mogu da se dogovore oko sankcija je solidan faktor nestabilnosti.

Naprotiv, nisam uopste ocekivao da vec sada stopiraju NS2.
Sada je vec za ocekivati da ce se poceti sa potpunim stopiranjem kupovanja energenata iz Rusije, ako bude full scale invazija.
Pregovori sa Iranom idu dobro, tako da im je to verovatno OK prelazno resenje.

Paralelno ce verovatno jos vise da ubrzaju zeleni program smanjivanja potrosnje i prebacivanja svega moguceg na obnovljivu energiju.
Ne bih iskljucio i da ponovo zapale neku od nuklearki sto Francuzi ionako masovno rade i planiraju.
Jednom kad pocne da se prebacuje energetska infrastruktura Evrope, to je gotovo i nema vise nazad. Za 10 godina je ionako procena pada potrosnje nafte i gasa.
Rusiji ce biti potrebno dosta vremena da izgradi infrastrukturu do Kine koja ce imati jos veci ucenjivacki potencijal, a i sama se sve vise prebacuje na obnovljivu energiju.

Inkrementalni pristup sankcijama je OK jer Kremlju treba dati sansu na svakom koraku da dobro razmisli.
Ali, mislim da oni tamo zaista razmisljaju kao i Milosevic - sve takticke pobede protiv zapada ali strateski se sve vise gubi a najvise sama Rusija.
Dobro, nastradace Ukrajina jos mnogo vise i ako se pogleda istorija, to je verovatno najtragicinija zemlja od 1930. naovamo

...
Until the summer, the EU would likely be able to survive large-scale disruption to Russian gas supplies, based on a combination of increased LNG imports (to the limited extent this is technically possible) and demand-side measures such as industrial gas curtailments. However, this would come at a cost for the EU economy and might even result in some countries (those more exposed to Russian gas and less interconnected with other EU countries) having to take emergency measures.

But, should a halt of Russian gas be prolonged into the next winters, it would be more difficult for the EU to cope. On the supply side some spare import capacity is available but reaching the scale required to entirely replace Russian volumes would be at best very expensive, and at worst physically impossible. Limiting factors include global liquefaction capacity constraints, existing obligations in the current LNG market and commercial opportunity considerations in producing countries in relation to diverting shipments away from Asia. There would also be pricing implications and second-round effects on the poorest countries. The EU would thus need to resort to demand-side measures, which would prove painful for different countries/constituencies. This will raise questions on how to fairly share the burden. Difficult and costly decisions would have to be taken to manage the situation in an orderly way.

Major gas exporting nations said on Tuesday they could not guarantee prices or supplies at a summit overshadowed by the worsening Ukraine crisis which has pushed costs to record highs in Europe https://t.co/mQQefiNwUy #GECF pic.twitter.com/O0e5gjMbkO

— AFP News Agency (@AFP) February 22, 2022

Mór Thököly wrote:Zamisli Zelenski to uradi (nece, ali bilo bi nevidjeno zabavno)

fikret selimbašić wrote:

Mór Thököly wrote:Zamisli Zelenski to uradi (nece, ali bilo bi nevidjeno zabavno)

Ukrajina nije priznala Kosovo i Zelenski ima komociju da to uradi bez većih problema. U stvari, moguće je čak da to uradi u dogovoru sa agresorima i da tako trolujući istjeraju Vučića na čistinu.

#Ukraine According to local sources Ukrainian armed forces begins mining bridges and civilian infrastructure in Kharkov city and its countryside.
Kharkov is about 70km from Belgorod where #Russia has concentrated big number of military forces pic.twitter.com/V7U3sQznHI

— 🅻-🆃🅴🅼 (@L_Team10) February 22, 2022

fikret selimbašić wrote:

Mór Thököly wrote:Zamisli Zelenski to uradi (nece, ali bilo bi nevidjeno zabavno)

Ukrajina nije priznala Kosovo i Zelenski ima komociju da to uradi bez većih problema. U stvari, moguće je čak da to uradi u dogovoru sa agresorima i da tako trolujući istjeraju Vučića na čistinu.

Matvienko: the Federation Council received an appeal from the president on the use of the Russian army abroad

Матвиенко: в Совфед поступило обращение президента об использовании российской армии за рубежом https://t.co/msQeQldOUP

— Олег Нефедов (@olegnefedof) February 22, 2022

Del Cap wrote:

fikret selimbašić wrote:

Ukrajina nije priznala Kosovo i Zelenski ima komociju da to uradi bez većih problema. U stvari, moguće je čak da to uradi u dogovoru sa agresorima i da tako trolujući istjeraju Vučića na čistinu.

I ja mislim da bi to za njega bilo manje-više "besplatno" ali i da je tema takva da ne zavređuje vreme/energiju sada.

Mór Thököly wrote:Na zatvorenoj sednici? Ne.

Luhansk TPP in Shchastya is on fire. Shelling was done from the Russian "Grads”. 3 transformers are burning (40 tons of oil each). Shelling from the occupied territories continues. pic.twitter.com/9LhkXBJxup

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) February 22, 2022

#BREAKING Putin asks upper house to approve use of Russian army outside Russia: deputy defence minister pic.twitter.com/0zqfPQMAxs

— AFP News Agency (@AFP) February 22, 2022

Cousin Billy wrote:

Mór Thököly wrote:Na zatvorenoj sednici? Ne.

možda se senatori nisu obrijali pa im je glupo da se slikaju...

malo ostajem bez slamki za vatanje

Mór Thököly wrote:

Cousin Billy wrote:
možda se senatori nisu obrijali pa im je glupo da se slikaju...

malo ostajem bez slamki za vatanje

Moze da rasporedi trupe u"republike" po sporazumu koji su juce potpisali, mislim da mu ne treba mu za to. 

Ako je odlucivao da li ce da prizna dlnr, nema sanse da bi zatvarali sednicu samo za, realno, skoro tehnicki detalj.