Rat u Ukrajini

Ja kapiram da bi mu Makron nesto i dao, al Bajden nema trika, a o Englezima da ne pricam

Pri tom, Putin ima.ozbiljnu dilemu: da da vremena necemu sto ko zna dal ce doneti ista sto on zeli, i, ako ne donese, ko zna sta sve u medjuvremenu moze da stigne sve od oruzja u ukrajinu i koliko dodatno ljudi ukrajina moze jos da mobilise.

Meanwhile in Russia...

New Sea of Azov NOTAM, going active at midnight:
"Tempo Danger Area SFC - Unlimited"" pic.twitter.com/1LgaAnaiiH

— The Lookout (@The_Lookout_N) February 20, 2022

Russian warships (~10) passed through the fairway of the Crimean bridge and headed for the Sea of Azov.
"Naberezhnye Chelny" - Project 1241 Tarantul class
"Novocherkassk" and "Tsezar Kunikov" - large landing ship of Project 775.
"Pavel Derzhavin" -Patrol ship of project 22160 . pic.twitter.com/hMHEyM1wI5

— Massimo Frantarelli (@MrFrantarelli) February 20, 2022

Pojasnjenje

The NOTAM phraseology points to a Special Activity Airspace (SAA).

SFC being unlimited means that there is no altitude limit set. https://t.co/bEk5awu5Su

— Granger (@GrangerE04117) February 20, 2022

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The U.S. has intelligence that Russian commanders have received orders to proceed with an invasion of Ukraine https://t.co/AxpS0aMC4R

— CBS News (@CBSNews) February 20, 2022

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"There is no invasion, and there [are] no such plans," Russian Ambassador to the United States Anatoly Antonov denied Sunday that the Kremlin is preparing for an invasion of neighboring Ukraine https://t.co/bb8otMEPSY

— CBS News (@CBSNews) February 20, 2022

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Edit: Swiss otkazao sve letove za Ukr do kraja meseca

Pazi kad i dalje nije bas 100% da bilo ko od njih skroz laze. Mada je 98%.

Летећи Полип wrote:Ovo sto se radi ce se izucavati na svim svetskim akademijama za ispirace mozga.

Neće

Па, 100% лаже да нема планова за инвазију.
Такве ствари се увек праве, чак и у врло невероватним сценаријима.

Да ли ће да покрену инвазију целе или већег дела Украјине - по досад виђеном, неће.

Da da, planovi postoje sigurno. Sto se tice veceg dela ukrajine, ni ja ne verujem, no

The fact that the only BMPT-2 company of the Russian army, part of the 90th Tank Division, is deployed towards #Ukraine, indicates that #Russia is preparing to conduct assault operations into urban areas. https://t.co/8Gdi7imAdv

— Petri Mäkelä (@pmakela1) February 20, 2022

Nije pominjao elipton. Ne važi se.

edit: Rusi traže neki povod ili neki grad gde će da ih sačekaju kao Nemce u Zagrebu 1941... Harkov, šta ja znam.

Ironično bi bilo da kao Amerikanci potope svoj brod.

kažu "according to media sources". vrlo čudno upozorenje.

Ne treba im, a.mislim i da nije u pravu tj da namerno ovo govori, pod uslovom da uopste zna dovoljno. Ali, ne treba im bar jos nedelju dana, a rat moze da pocne, tj u Donbasu je vec poceo. Ljudi koji veruju da ce biti rata su ubedjeni da ce rusi provaliti prema harkovu i kijevu. Mozda, ali to mi nikad nije bilo previse verovatno tj mislim da nisu jos toliko poludeli.

Mislim, u Lugansku je napad zapravo u toku.

Mór Thököly wrote:Ne treba im, a.mislim i da nije u pravu tj da namerno ovo govori, pod uslovom da uopste zna dovoljno. Ali, ne treba im bar jos nedelju dana, a rat moze da pocne, tj u Donbasu je vec poceo. Ljudi koji veruju da ce biti rata su ubedjeni da ce rusi provaliti prema harkovu i kijevu. Mozda, ali to mi nikad nije bilo previse verovatno tj mislim da nisu jos toliko poludeli.

ovo. sudeći po atmosferi na tviteru, Rusi će gađati civilne naseobine TOS-2 sistemima, praviti u Kijevu logore za rusofile i tako dalje. ideja da će ovo izgledati kao nekakav blickrig na Poljsku stavio sam u fioku u kojoj su "frozen ground" teorije, alternativna geografija Liz Truss, OSINT prebrojavanje tenkova na drumovima i ostali generatori histerije. alo ljudi to je Ukrajina, ne Čečenija. jednostavno ne može to.

Prvo, Putin je lud ako napad nekakav krene odjednom. Sankcije, jedinstvo Zapada, sve najgore posledice, to bi bio napad iz snova Atlantskog saveta. Umesto toga, malo shelling, malo primirije, malo shelling dok, recimo, Ukrajinci ne dovedu sve svoje najbolje u Donbas. Pa onda nekakvo artiljerijsko "dejstvovanje" sa same granice LNR i Rusije na primer. Dal sankcije, dal ne, da li je to invazija, odakle se tacno pucalo... Pa onda tenkovi koje koriste "republike", od kad su tacno kod njih... Ako krene ww2-style na Ukrajinu, to znaci da su mnogo ludi i samo to je dovoljno za tesku brigu bilo koga bilo gde.

Naravno, moze neko u Ukrajini da izgubi zivce, proglasi opstu mobilizaciju i onda je sve moguce.

pa za sad deluje mnogo razumniji nego ovi sto ga loze u tom pravcu

Ne, ovo sve zajednoje potpuno nerazumno. Trenjin kaze "doktrina strateske  tenzije". Sta ako ne dobijes nista od vaznijih zahteva? Putin ne blefira, ako  ne dobije nista od toga napasce 100%.

Ako je uopste hteo pregovore, a ne rat in the first place

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According to the latest US intelligence assessment, Russia now has close to 75% of its conventional forces postured against Ukraine, a US official with direct knowledge of the intelligence told CNN. 
The concentration of forces within striking distance of Ukraine is highly unusual and part of the reason the US believes Russia is ready to attack, the official said.
This includes some 120 of Russia's total estimated 160 Battalion Tactical Groups or BTGs which are positioned within 60km of Ukraine, according to the official. While that figure represents 75% of Russia’s principal combat units, it is less than half of the total troops in the Russian military.
US officials have reported that Russian troops combined with separatist forces could be as high as 190,000 deployed around Ukraine.
Some 35 of 50 known air defense battalions are deployed against Ukraine. In addition, the US estimates some 500 fighter and fighter-bomber aircraft are within range of Ukraine, as well as 50 medium to heavy bombers.
Together, the Russian forces now vastly outnumber Ukrainian military forces, according to the assessment. 

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-news-02-20-22-intl/index.html
​

Bajden navodno sastančio 4 sata i odlučio da ne ide iz DC-ja.

Four-hour long NSC meeting. President cancels travel to Wilmington tonight. Intelligence have high confidence Kremlin ordered attack on Ukraine. It all points to military action in the next few hours or days. https://t.co/3TyFQYvwJ1

— Ivo Daalder (@IvoHDaalder) February 20, 2022