Virus

MNE wrote:

MNE wrote:
40.42
35.8
37.62
33.93
36.78
33.5
35.4

36.2% prosjek, pad za cijela 3%..svjetlo na kraju tunela

33.5
32.3
30.1
30.7
30.56
28.43
26.24

30.26% prosjek, pad za skoro 20% iliti odlazi i ova varijanta

bemty wrote:zabrinuto. 

peti dan imam umor i mucninu, a umor lici na onaj koji sam imala posle mononukleoze. hronican, tezak, nepovezan sa kolicinom spavanja. ono, pocnu misici da mi drhte od malo crtanja i pricanja sa detetom. 

mozda prodje uskoro, jos je rano da nagadjam, ali posle niza trudnoca i te mononukleoze, uopste vise nemam psihickih kapaciteta da budem opet hronicno fizicki lose. tako da... zabrinuto.

lalinea wrote:Bemty, kako je umor, jel ima promena?

bemty wrote:

lalinea wrote:Bemty, kako je umor, jel ima promena?

malo bolje, imam sad periode kad nije strasno, sto mi daje nadu da prolazi. ali referentnog okvira radi: izasla sam da prosetam psa i posle 20 minuta sam bila toliko umorna da je opet krenula mucnina od kolicine napora. otisla sam kuci, misici su mi podrhtavali od napora (nisu stvarno, ali takav je osecaj), ostatak dana u krevetu. ipak, to je bolje nego juce, a juce je bilo bolje nego prekjuce, itd.

Sotir wrote:Ја сам осећао секрет горе у синусима, као и да се спушта ка грлу после чега сам мало промукао. Али је углавном било мало секрета и нисам га искашљавао.

  Quote
This note sets out a range of scenarios to illustrate possible courses of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic for the UK. All assume that SARS-CoV-2 will continue to circulate for the foreseeable future and that variants will emerge. These are scenarios that illustrate a range of possible futures but are not the only plausible courses that the pandemic could take. Shifts from one scenario to another over time are also possible. An outcome that lies outside the range covered by the four scenarios –better than the reasonable best-case scenario or worse than the reasonable worst-case scenario – cannot be ruled out. In each scenario, it is assumed that a relatively stable, repeating pattern is reached over time (2-10 years) but it is likely that the transition to this will be highly dynamic and unpredictable. It may not be possible to know with confidence from what happens in the next 12-18 months which long-term pattern will emerge.

Dr Zoë Hyde@DrZoeHyde
Feb 13
Is the pandemic really over? What’s likely to happen over the next 12-18 months? The UK’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) outline four possible scenarios ranging from optimistic to pessimistic.

Here’s what they describe…🧵
https://gov.uk/government/publications/academics-viral-evolution-scenarios-10-february-2022…771,3492,193Dr Zoë Hyde@DrZoeHyde·Feb 13

In the best case scenario, the vaccines retain their effectiveness against new variants (which do not show increased transmissibility or severity). Antiviral drugs stop people from getting really sick and these drugs remain effective. Only minor seasonal/regional outbreaks occur.

In the central optimistic scenario, waves of infection continue to occur, driven by waning immunity and/or new variants. There will be good & bad years; some variants will cause more severe disease. Immunity protects most people but resistance to antiviral drugs begins to appear.

In the central pessimistic scenario, there are repeated, disruptive waves of infection driven by the unpredictable emergence of variants. Existing immunity and new vaccines continue to protect most people, but resistance to antiviral drugs is widespread.

In the worst case scenario, high levels of human transmission, incomplete global vaccination, and transmission among animals leads to repeated emergence of variants (some of which cause more severe disease and escape immunity). There are increased long-term impacts of infection.

Regardless of which scenario ends up being correct, SAGE assume it will take considerable time before a stable state is reached (2 to 10 years).

They write that the transition phase is likely to be “highly dynamic and unpredictable.”

My 2 cents on the report: the best case scenario doesn’t seem realistic. It’s inconsistent with what’s occurred so far (at least with regard to transmissibility & antigenic evolution). I think elements of the central optimistic scenario are unlikely too, particularly seasonality.

Based on our experience with SARS-CoV-2 to date, the central pessimistic scenario seems most likely to me. However, I think one element of the worst case scenario - increased long-term impacts following infection - may also be correct.

This is why I think we need a #VaccinesPLUS strategy to keep cases low until we can develop more effective vaccines (particularly intranasal vaccines that may better prevent infection & transmission). We can do more with simple measures like ventilation that don’t burden people.

The key take-home message is the pandemic is far from over, unless we’re lucky enough that the best case scenario is correct. But trusting our luck is unlikely to be a winning strategy. If we want the pandemic to end, we need to do the work (#VaccinesPLUS) to make that happen.