Virus

Spoiler:

Sadly happening in every Trust. If I were brave enough, and needed an income and a future, I’d share some of the incidents that I’ve seen. It’s beyond a major incident, it’s a freaking war zone. The next couple of weeks will just show what a disaster it really is. I hate it.

— Undercover Chief Nurse (@maureen_kelly) January 2, 2022

“It is the most-explosive and the fastest-spreading virus in history.” That's how historian and physician Anton Erkoreka, who researches epidemics from the past, describes omicron’s spread. Debate continues, meanwhile, on its severity https://t.co/3uow74W9I9

— El País English Edition (@elpaisinenglish) January 3, 2022

Want to see an example? Puerto Rico was at a steady 130 cases/day.

Only 4 days later, cases shot up 2000% to 2,700 cases/day pic.twitter.com/kzDhMg2sYe

— JWeiland (@JPWeiland) December 23, 2021

Cousin Billy wrote:Ala ćemo se sutra iznenaditi...

Na svakoj novogodišnjoj proslavi na kojoj je bio jedan simptomatski zaražen, verovatno se zarazilo više od 50% ljudi, to je pravilnost sa ovim sojem. Inkubacija omikrona je kratka, 2-3 dana a današnji redovi su od slavlja i pijanki u kolektivima neposredno pre NG. Kad bi barem postojao neki, bilo koji medij koji bi, umesto da se opsesivno bavi nestalim Matejom, glasno i uporno upozoravao na to da ljude neće imati ko da leči ako polome nogu, ako im se upali slepo crevo, da će biti 12 sati u trijaži...Nećemo pocrkati svi od ovog soja ali narednih mesec dana imaćemo problema sa jednom od bazičnih funkcija države.

100% of WakeMed’s ICU patients & patients on ventilators are unvaccinated. 86% of our overall COVID+ hospitalized patients are unvaccinated. Please get vaccinated and/or get your booster.

WakeMed Vaccine: https://t.co/nqvJ7BDXuR

Wake Co. DHHS Vaccine: https://t.co/jw5J4JznWM pic.twitter.com/UOXFMrLWvU

— WakeMed (@WakeMed) December 30, 2021

WakeMed Health and Hospitals is a 919-bed healthcare system with multiple facilities placed around the metropolitan Raleigh, North Carolina area.

Omicron is not a Pokemon-style "final evolution" of SARS-CoV-2. It's still mutating rapidly, including in the spike protein, and with the amount of replication it is doing out there right now, we can expect new variants. Hoping is not a strategy. Giving up is not a plan. pic.twitter.com/vXgNcdWreu

— T. Ryan Gregory (@TRyanGregory) January 1, 2022

This Tweet may seem distressing, but we can’t be shocked every time we get some new antigenic drift on SARS-CoV-2.

Viruses evolve. New viruses evolve faster.

We cannot stop this, but we can control *our response* to evolve and allow us to live with Covid-19 in the long term.

— Meaghan Kall (@kallmemeg) January 3, 2022

Cousin Billy wrote:Pa da, biće tako, osim što ovaj talas nokautira bolnice za nedelju dana...Pretpostavljam da će tiho dati instrukciju da se radi i sa blagim kovidom.

In the conference they explained that they're seeing deaths months after workers "recovered" from Covid from infection-related health consequences (heart attacks, vascular problems, etc.). These deaths don't get classified as "from Covid" because they're no longer "positive."

— Micah Pollak (@MicahPollak) January 2, 2022

You will also see multiple hospital CEO and presidents talk about how the claim that vaccine mandates are in any way responsible for shortage of staff is ludicrous. It's the opposite, the mandates have resulted in fewer staff out sick and helped REDUCE staff shortages.

— Micah Pollak (@MicahPollak) January 2, 2022

Del Cap wrote:Scientists have rung the alarm bells over "the emergence of a new variant" in southern France.

A possible new variant emerging in France, originated in Cameroon: B.1.640.2 (=breakthrough infection)
With 46 mutations and 37 deletions resulting in 30 amino acid substitutions and 12 deletions.
Sister to B.1.640(.1)
Something to follow??https://t.co/eWephiGWG6 pic.twitter.com/1aqUMLcLbo

— Harry Spoelstra (@HarrySpoelstra) December 31, 2021

Yeah in the time the first B.1.640.2 were uploaded from the Paris region Omicron has been discovered and spread to every country worldwide - would be extremely suprised if this is anything more than blip

— Tom Peacock (@PeacockFlu) January 3, 2022

Vladica Veličković
19 ч. ·
U martu 2021 sam pokušao da objasnim da SARS-COV2 neće nestati već ostati endemski prisutan u populaciji (link na kraju posta). Tada to medjutim nije bilo previše interesantno, ali sada je vidim tema jako popularna i mnogi nam jako samouvereno tvrde da ulazimo u endemiju posle ovog talasa omikron sojem.
Šta je endemija?
Endemija (pojedostavljeno) je neka vrsta ravnotežnog stanja u populaciji kada više nemamo talase novih infekcija, već konstantan broj novo-inficiranih. Po logici stvari to je konstantna pretnja koja sa vremena na vreme prerasta u nove epidemije/pandemije i konstantno odnese neki broj života (samo se naviknemo na tako stanje stvari).
Da li će posle omikron talasa uslediti endemska faza?
Kako se predvidja da omikron može da inficira i preko 2 milijarde ljudi ove godine već do proleća, izvesno je da će posle njega uslediti novi soj(evi), a da li će ti sojevi biti agresivniji ili blaži ostaje da se vidi i nemoguće je predvideti unapred. Dakle, nepoznatno je da li ćemo ući u konstantan broj zaraženih sa nižim mortalitetom i bez novih talasa (endemija) ili ne?
Kako izgleda nova normalnost ako udjemo u endemsko širenje virusa?
Uzmimo za primer virus gripa. Virus gripa ima nekoliko sub-tipova, a ti sub-tipovi imaju sojeve poput SARS-COV2 virusa. Sa vremena na vreme neki soj podigne novu pandemiju ili lokalnu epidemiju. Npr. 1918 španski grip je bio izazvan veoma agresivnim sojem A/H1N1 virusom gripa. 1957 A/H2N2 virus gripa je izazvao novu pandemiju. 1968 A/H3N2 virus gripa ponovo je izazvao panemdiju. 2009 “svinjski grip” je izazvao pandemiju, a inače je upitanju isti subtip kao i izazivač španskog gripa (A/H1N1) samo drugi soj. Dakle, endemija gripa je stalno prokuživanje sa sezonskim pikom jednom godišnje i povremene epidemije/pandemije koje tipično traju oko dve godine.
Da li je grip uporediv sa SARS-COV2 kada je potencijalna endemija upitanju?
Nažalost, ne. SARS-COV2 je znatno agresivniji virus, koji lakše i brže zaobilazi imunitet, i ne pokazuje sezonski pik samo jednom godišnje. Da bismo imali epidemiološku kontrolu kod virusa ovakvih karakteristika buster će biti neophodan barem dva puta godišnje i to specifičan za cirkulišući soj. Monoklonalna antitela i slični farmaceutici takodje će bito neophodni kako bi se efikasno sprečavale teške forme bolesti. Sve ovo podrazumeva da je populacija većinski vakcinisana efikasnom vakcinom na duži vremenski period.
Da li je ovo moguće postići globalno?
Nisam optimista. Mi smo definitvno zagazili u eru Corona virusa. Propuštena je prilika prvih meseci pandemije kada je još postojala mogućnost da se virus “izgladni” i potpuno izkontroliše striktnim merama i sada nema nazad.
https://www.facebook.com/714738035/posts/10158065143133036/?d=n

Cousin Billy wrote:Nije alarm bell nikakav. Prate novu varijantu i to je to, nema indikacija da je zaraznija od omikrona.