Virus

You look at the big, long lists of all the cases and identify those where you have clusterings in space and time and try to investigate what kind of clustering happened: Was it in a hospital, an old-age home, theaters, restaurants? We found it was predominantly in families. It’s not a big surprise; China had shut down a lot of the other ways people could gather. And family clusters are the closest, longest exposures [to the virus], and getting the virus is a function of whether someone’s got it, how long they’re exposed, and how much virus they are shedding.

More of a surprise, and this is something we still don’t understand, is how little virus there was in the much broader community. Everywhere we went, we tried to find and understand how many tests had been done, how many people were tested, and who were they.

In Guangdong province, for example, there were 320,000 tests done in people coming to fever clinics, outpatient clinics. And at the peak of the outbreak, 0.47 percent of those tests were positive. People keep saying [the cases are the] tip of the iceberg. But we couldn’t find that. We found there’s a lot of people who are cases, a lot of close contacts — but not a lot of asymptomatic circulation of this virus in the bigger population. And that’s different from flu. In flu, you’ll find this virus right through the child population, right through blood samples of 20 to 40 percent of the population.

The average case fatality rate is 3.8 percent in China, but a lot of that is driven by the early epidemic in Wuhan where numbers were higher. If you look outside of Hubei province [where Wuhan is], the case fatality rate is just under 1 percent now. I would not quote that as the number. That’s the mortality in China — and they find cases fast, get them isolated, in treatment, and supported early. Second thing they do is ventilate dozens in the average hospital; they use extracorporeal membrane oxygenation [removing blood from a person’s body and oxygenating their red blood cells] when ventilation doesn’t work. This is sophisticated health care. They have a survival rate for this disease I would not extrapolate to the rest of the world. What you’ve seen in Italy and Iran is that a lot of people are dying.

This is why protective measures like widespread self-isolation, handwashing, limiting travel, and mask-wearing are critical if we want to avoid healthcare systems collapse from #COVID19 pic.twitter.com/5YcHP1RZkC

— Chad Loder (@chadloder) March 8, 2020

HSE 'cannot dispute' 1.9m in Republic may fall ill with virus

The Health Service Executive has said that it cannot dispute projections that 1.9 million people in the Republic of Ireland may fall ill with coronavirus.

But it said that the modelling scenario is not completed yet.

Egypt’s Minister of Health said Sunday that the first Egyptian to contract COVID-19 is now “in a critical condition.” The 44-year old is an Egyptian citizen who displayed symptoms of the virus after they returned home from a trip to Serbia.

Gargantua wrote:Sa kojom dozom optimizma treba da pomislimo da su srpska i egipatska vlada u kontaktu oko toga i da se radi na analizi kretanja tog čoveka u Srbiji?

До 18 часова, 08. марта 2020. године, у националној референтној лабораторији Института Торлак тестиранe су  укупно 94 особе које су испуњавале критеријуме дефиниције случаја.

Од последњег извештаја до 18 часова, 8. марта 2020. године тестирани су узорци 3 особе, који су негативни на нови корона вирус.

Take a listen to two top White House officials in the last few days saying that the virus has been contained, when it has not been contained.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KELLYANNE CONWAY, COUNSELOR TO THE PRESIDENT: This has been contained because the president took action.

LARRY KUDLOW, DIRECTOR, NATIONAL ECONOMIC COUNCIL: We don't actually know what the magnitude of the virus is going to be, although, frankly, so far, it looks relatively contained.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

TAPPER: So, that's not true. It's not contained. It's not relatively contained.

Have you expressed your desire for people on the White -- in the White House to share the facts and be honest?

ADAMS: Well, this is a novel virus. It's a new situation. And the messaging, quite frankly, is hard.

But here's what I want the American people to know. From a public health point of view -- and I am a public health expert -- the first thing you want to try to do is contain the virus. And some parts of the country have contained it, meaning they're preventing spread into their communities in the first place.

But...

TAPPER: But we don't really know that, though, right, because there aren't enough testing kits, so we don't -- like, for instance, we know of one case in D.C. That doesn't mean there's only one person with it in D.C. We just

don't know. There aren't enough testing kits.

ADAMS: Well, what we do know is that, if we had massive numbers of cases, we would be seeing more deaths.

And so we actually feel pretty good that some parts of the country have contained it, just like when you look at the flu. And when we look at the flu tracker, some parts of the country are having much more severe flu seasons. Some are having very mild flu seasons.

Gargantua wrote:Death toll in #Italy from #coronavirus outbreak rise to 366 from 233 on Saturday ~official | #covid19italia

Papa Lazarou wrote:

kapetanm wrote:Nisam to čuo. Al logično je

To je logično koliko i Trampove ideje da stavi vojsku na granicu sa Meksikom da zaustavi koronu, dok mu na aerodrome i dalje sleću zaraženi iz Italije i ulaze bez ikakvih provera.

Papa Lazarou wrote:A SAD su u divovskom problemu. Šef države aktivno sabotira sve napore da se epidemija stavi pod kontrolu.

kapetanm wrote:

Papa Lazarou wrote:

To je logično koliko i Trampove ideje da stavi vojsku na granicu sa Meksikom da zaustavi koronu, dok mu na aerodrome i dalje sleću zaraženi iz Italije i ulaze bez ikakvih provera.

Men se čini da se kod nas obraća pažnja na došljake iz Italije.
A za ove migrante, onda da prodju bez karantina koliko razumem ideju?

Papa Lazarou wrote:

kapetanm wrote:
Men se čini da se kod nas obraća pažnja na došljake iz Italije.
A za ove migrante, onda da prodju bez karantina koliko razumem ideju?

Ideja (moja) je da prođu epidemiološku proveru, da bolesni idu u karantin/bolnicu, a zdravi da idu dalje gde su krenuli, dok ne uvedu šire karantinske mere a onda kako nama tako i njima. Zašto bi išli svi u karantin? Više je, po svemu sudeći, bolesnih među nama nego među njima.

Pročitah da virus van tela živi 9 dana.