Home
by Admin Pantokrator Sun Mar 08, 2020 3:58 pm
Virus
- Admin
- Posts : 1115
Join date : 2012-02-10
rumbeando
- Posts : 1040
Join date : 2012-02-11
Odlican tekst, direkt sa lica mesta.
Ko ima volje neka ga procita, ima jako korisnih stvari.
https://www-vox-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/www.vox.com/platform/amp/2020/3/2/21161067/coronavirus-covid19-china
... prevedeno na Srbiju, znači najebali smo.
Ko ima volje neka ga procita, ima jako korisnih stvari.
https://www-vox-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/www.vox.com/platform/amp/2020/3/2/21161067/coronavirus-covid19-china
You look at the big, long lists of all the cases and identify those where you have clusterings in space and time and try to investigate what kind of clustering happened: Was it in a hospital, an old-age home, theaters, restaurants? We found it was predominantly in families. It’s not a big surprise; China had shut down a lot of the other ways people could gather. And family clusters are the closest, longest exposures [to the virus], and getting the virus is a function of whether someone’s got it, how long they’re exposed, and how much virus they are shedding.
More of a surprise, and this is something we still don’t understand, is how little virus there was in the much broader community. Everywhere we went, we tried to find and understand how many tests had been done, how many people were tested, and who were they.
In Guangdong province, for example, there were 320,000 tests done in people coming to fever clinics, outpatient clinics. And at the peak of the outbreak, 0.47 percent of those tests were positive. People keep saying [the cases are the] tip of the iceberg. But we couldn’t find that. We found there’s a lot of people who are cases, a lot of close contacts — but not a lot of asymptomatic circulation of this virus in the bigger population. And that’s different from flu. In flu, you’ll find this virus right through the child population, right through blood samples of 20 to 40 percent of the population.
... prevedeno na Srbiju, znači najebali smo.
The average case fatality rate is 3.8 percent in China, but a lot of that is driven by the early epidemic in Wuhan where numbers were higher. If you look outside of Hubei province [where Wuhan is], the case fatality rate is just under 1 percent now. I would not quote that as the number. That’s the mortality in China — and they find cases fast, get them isolated, in treatment, and supported early. Second thing they do is ventilate dozens in the average hospital; they use extracorporeal membrane oxygenation [removing blood from a person’s body and oxygenating their red blood cells] when ventilation doesn’t work. This is sophisticated health care. They have a survival rate for this disease I would not extrapolate to the rest of the world. What you’ve seen in Italy and Iran is that a lot of people are dying.
Last edited by Cowboy on Sun Mar 08, 2020 4:49 pm; edited 1 time in total
- Posts : 13730
Join date : 2016-02-01
This is why protective measures like widespread self-isolation, handwashing, limiting travel, and mask-wearing are critical if we want to avoid healthcare systems collapse from #COVID19 pic.twitter.com/5YcHP1RZkC
— Chad Loder (@chadloder) March 8, 2020
- Posts : 13730
Join date : 2016-02-01
Irci još nisu završili pravljenje modela, ali po trenutnoj verziji smatraju da je moguće da se zarazi skoro 40% populacije, javlja irski javni servis RTE.
Irska ima 4,9 miliona stanovnika, to znači da bi bilo zaraženo 39% populacije.
https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0308/1120943-covid-19/HSE 'cannot dispute' 1.9m in Republic may fall ill with virus
The Health Service Executive has said that it cannot dispute projections that 1.9 million people in the Republic of Ireland may fall ill with coronavirus.
But it said that the modelling scenario is not completed yet.
Irska ima 4,9 miliona stanovnika, to znači da bi bilo zaraženo 39% populacije.
- Posts : 13730
Join date : 2016-02-01
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/08/coronavirus-live-updates-third-death-in-australia-as-cases-reach-more-than-70?page=with:block-5e65136f8f085f0b8d94474e#block-5e65136f8f085f0b8d94474eEgypt’s Minister of Health said Sunday that the first Egyptian to contract COVID-19 is now “in a critical condition.” The 44-year old is an Egyptian citizen who displayed symptoms of the virus after they returned home from a trip to Serbia.
- Guest
Sa kojom dozom optimizma treba da pomislimo da su srpska i egipatska vlada u kontaktu oko toga i da se radi na analizi kretanja tog čoveka u Srbiji?
- Guest
sa Egiptom je sve bacanje kockica. onaj koji duži taj kontakt može da bude ljuti profesionalac koji je suzbijao epidemije na sudanskoj granici, ili mongoloidni Sisijev rođak iz petog kolena.
- Posts : 1040
Join date : 2012-02-11
Gargantua wrote:Sa kojom dozom optimizma treba da pomislimo da su srpska i egipatska vlada u kontaktu oko toga i da se radi na analizi kretanja tog čoveka u Srbiji?
Kada je bio u Srbiji, kada napustio, kada se vratio u Egipat? Zaista je moguce da ga je pokupio u tranzitu iz Srbije (preko Francuske)
btw. u kriticnom stanju, 44 godine star (mlad) čovek, verovatno je to ona "slabija" varijanta od dve koje su kruzile po Wuhanu
- Guest
Razbijamo sa uzorkovanjem
До 18 часова, 08. марта 2020. године, у националној референтној лабораторији Института Торлак тестиранe су укупно 94 особе које су испуњавале критеријуме дефиниције случаја.
Од последњег извештаја до 18 часова, 8. марта 2020. године тестирани су узорци 3 особе, који су негативни на нови корона вирус.
- Posts : 13730
Join date : 2016-02-01
Surgeon general (šef direkcije za javno zdravlje) u programu CNN-a nakon što su Trampovi saradnici izjavili da je virus zaustavljen pri sledećem hronološkom dnevnom porastu broja obolelih u poslednjih 7 dana:
+11 +23 +20 +36 +70 +92 +119
+11 +23 +20 +36 +70 +92 +119
http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/2003/08/sotu.01.htmlTake a listen to two top White House officials in the last few days saying that the virus has been contained, when it has not been contained.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
KELLYANNE CONWAY, COUNSELOR TO THE PRESIDENT: This has been contained because the president took action.
LARRY KUDLOW, DIRECTOR, NATIONAL ECONOMIC COUNCIL: We don't actually know what the magnitude of the virus is going to be, although, frankly, so far, it looks relatively contained.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
TAPPER: So, that's not true. It's not contained. It's not relatively contained.
Have you expressed your desire for people on the White -- in the White House to share the facts and be honest?
ADAMS: Well, this is a novel virus. It's a new situation. And the messaging, quite frankly, is hard.
But here's what I want the American people to know. From a public health point of view -- and I am a public health expert -- the first thing you want to try to do is contain the virus. And some parts of the country have contained it, meaning they're preventing spread into their communities in the first place.
But...
TAPPER: But we don't really know that, though, right, because there aren't enough testing kits, so we don't -- like, for instance, we know of one case in D.C. That doesn't mean there's only one person with it in D.C. We just
don't know. There aren't enough testing kits.
ADAMS: Well, what we do know is that, if we had massive numbers of cases, we would be seeing more deaths.
And so we actually feel pretty good that some parts of the country have contained it, just like when you look at the flu. And when we look at the flu tracker, some parts of the country are having much more severe flu seasons. Some are having very mild flu seasons.
- Guest
Death toll in #Italy from #coronavirus outbreak rise to 366 from 233 on Saturday ~official | #covid19italia
- Guest
A SAD su u divovskom problemu. Šef države aktivno sabotira sve napore da se epidemija stavi pod kontrolu.
- Posts : 50094
Join date : 2017-11-16
Gargantua wrote:Death toll in #Italy from #coronavirus outbreak rise to 366 from 233 on Saturday ~official | #covid19italia
Joj
- Guest
Italija 1492 nova slučaja danas. Shit has hit the fan.
- Posts : 5800
Join date : 2012-02-10
Men se čini da se kod nas obraća pažnja na došljake iz Italije.Papa Lazarou wrote:kapetanm wrote:Nisam to čuo. Al logično je
To je logično koliko i Trampove ideje da stavi vojsku na granicu sa Meksikom da zaustavi koronu, dok mu na aerodrome i dalje sleću zaraženi iz Italije i ulaze bez ikakvih provera.
A za ove migrante, onda da prodju bez karantina koliko razumem ideju?
- Posts : 1040
Join date : 2012-02-11
Papa Lazarou wrote:A SAD su u divovskom problemu. Šef države aktivno sabotira sve napore da se epidemija stavi pod kontrolu.
Bukvalno da sam odapeo pre nove godine ne bih ni pretpostavio koliko su glupi ljudi koji vode ovaj kurvin svet - istinski glupi, ograniceni, bez kapaciteta da saberu dva i dva.
Ubijaju vola za pola kila mesa, bez straha, bez dvoumljenja.
Izucavace se ovo na fakultetima, mada ni tada ljudi nece postati pametniji. Kada su bile one poplave, pricao mi prijatelj, profestor filozofije, inace jako inteligentan covek - kaze, gledali smo reku sa terase, svi grupno, iz svih zgrada, pili kafe, komentarisali kako raste. Tek kada je krenula da se izliva potrcali smo u podrume da spasavamo stvari ali bilo je vec kasno.
Ljudska priroda, sta li. Moc poricanja.
- Guest
kapetanm wrote:Men se čini da se kod nas obraća pažnja na došljake iz Italije.Papa Lazarou wrote:
To je logično koliko i Trampove ideje da stavi vojsku na granicu sa Meksikom da zaustavi koronu, dok mu na aerodrome i dalje sleću zaraženi iz Italije i ulaze bez ikakvih provera.
A za ove migrante, onda da prodju bez karantina koliko razumem ideju?
Ideja (moja) je da prođu epidemiološku proveru, da bolesni idu u karantin/bolnicu, a zdravi da idu dalje gde su krenuli, dok ne uvedu šire karantinske mere a onda kako nama tako i njima. Zašto bi išli svi u karantin? Više je, po svemu sudeći, bolesnih među nama nego među njima.
- Posts : 5800
Join date : 2012-02-10
Pa i oni su iz prilično rizičnih regiona - bar četvrtina je iz Irana, plus Avganistanci koji su tud prošli. Zašto ne bi išli, tu nema sentimenta. Koja bi bila svrha karantina ako čekaš da nabodeš nekog bolesnog i samo njega zadržiš..a za mesec dana kukaš kako se desilo da uđu i što nema kineskog sistema..Papa Lazarou wrote:kapetanm wrote:
Men se čini da se kod nas obraća pažnja na došljake iz Italije.
A za ove migrante, onda da prodju bez karantina koliko razumem ideju?
Ideja (moja) je da prođu epidemiološku proveru, da bolesni idu u karantin/bolnicu, a zdravi da idu dalje gde su krenuli, dok ne uvedu šire karantinske mere a onda kako nama tako i njima. Zašto bi išli svi u karantin? Više je, po svemu sudeći, bolesnih među nama nego među njima.
Pročitah da virus van tela živi 9 dana. Najebasmo
- Guest
Onda karantin i za sve koji dolaze iz Italije, Nemačke i Francuske. Ne znam zašto izdvajaš migrante.
- Posts : 50094
Join date : 2017-11-16
Pročitah da virus van tela živi 9 dana.
to je...bas lose
- Guest
nije dokazano, to je hipoteza iz jedne male studije.
da se vratim na migrante. dnevno ih u Srbiju uđe toliko da se napuni jedan jedini gastarbajterski autobus iz Minhena ili Padove. trpanje tih ljudi u karantin ne bi donelo epidemiološki baš ništa, a razvuklo bi naše vrlo oskudne resurse.
da se vratim na migrante. dnevno ih u Srbiju uđe toliko da se napuni jedan jedini gastarbajterski autobus iz Minhena ili Padove. trpanje tih ljudi u karantin ne bi donelo epidemiološki baš ništa, a razvuklo bi naše vrlo oskudne resurse.
|
|
|