Virus

KinderLad wrote:

Pročitah da virus van tela živi 9 dana. 

to je...bas lose

Papa Lazarou wrote:Baš tako. Nauka je za virus prvi put čula 31. decembra, zapravo se vrlo malo zna o njemu - nepoznat je  način širenja (zna se dosta ali se ne zna sve), ne zna se koliko mu smeta toplo vreme, nejasan je uticaj na različite demografske grupe...Nemoguće je praviti sveobuhvatnu procenu u ovako dinamičkim uslovima gde se parametri menjaju svakodnevo. Naročito je nepoznato da li mu smeta toplota, a slutim da ćemo zahvaljujući Indiji to znati dosta brzo, za nekoliko nedelja već.

Given this new, uncertain phase, I decided to go back to some of the same virologists, immunologists, and epidemiologists (and a few new ones) with my question: How does this outbreak end?

The most uncomfortable answer they gave is the possibility that Covid-19 keeps spreading at a high rate and becomes endemic — regularly infecting humans, like the common cold.

“Without an effective vaccine, I don’t know how this ends before millions of infections,” Nathan Grubaugh, an epidemiologist at the Yale School of Public Health, says.
...
For a variety of reasons, some viruses — but not all — become less transmissible as temperatures and humidity rise in the summer months. The viruses themselves may not live as long on surfaces in these conditions. Also, human behavior changes, and we spend less time in confined spaces. “A lot of how the outbreak ends or at least how things progress in the next few months really depends on if this is seasonal,” Grubaugh says.

That’s still a big unknown. “Just because some respiratory diseases, like flu, demonstrate seasonality doesn’t mean that Covid-19 will,” Maimuna Majumder, a Harvard epidemiologist, says. She and colleagues recently published an early version of a paper (which has not been peer-reviewed) that found that changes in weather across China did not seem to impact the course of the outbreak.

The study suggests that humidity — which appears to be correlated with the seasonality of the flu — is not correlated with transmissibility of Covid-19, she says. (She also stresses to treat the data as “provisional,” and that her group is still studying the potential effect of temperature on transmissibility.)

But if it is seasonal, it doesn’t mean Covid-19 goes away after the summer. “It likely isn’t just going to magically go away,” Grubaugh says. “Next winter might end up being the big winter.”

And if it is seasonal, it’s still dangerous. It would be like the flu, “except potentially with a higher case fatality rate,” Rasmussen says. “Which is definitely a problem because the seasonal flu kills 30,000 to 60,000 Americans every year. And even if it’s the same case fatality rate of seasonal flu, that still presents a substantial public health burden.”

...
https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/3/6/21161234/coronavirus-covid-19-science-outbreak-ends-endemic-vaccine

Papa Lazarou wrote:Onda karantin i za sve koji dolaze iz Italije, Nemačke i Francuske. Ne znam zašto izdvajaš migrante.

Admin Pantokrator wrote:samo lepo objasnite coveku da ti ljudi su odavno otisli iz avganistana i ostalog.

паће wrote:Са оног форума из тамоа:

Не бих се чудио да у ствари постоји масовна забуна код већине, од средњег радништва навише, да у ствари не капирају шта би то било М4А, јер нису имали додира са постојећим. Не могу да замисле како би то радило, и онда наравно лименке^РЖ могу да лажу и мажу како хоће, све приче звуче подједнако уверљиво, осим стварности.

Летећи Полип wrote:Ah. Ne mogu liberalne demokratije da reaguju na isti način kao autoritarne tehnokratske države kao što je Kina, ili polumilitarizovana društva kao što je Izrael. Njihova teoretska prednost je upravo u ovakvim situacijama.  Sa druge strane, neoliberalna tržišta ne mogu da funkcionišu u stanju iščekivanja katastrofe koja možda se desi, a možda i ne. Trampara i ini (pa i Vučić) se ponašaju racionalno u okvirima svog sistema.

Летећи Полип wrote:Ama ne može, jer tržište. Druga stvar, pitanje je da li zapadne zemlje uopšte imaju kapciteta da zavedu hermetički karantin.

Beware Journalistic Fallacies

Italy is NOT "risking" the economy to fight the virus. It is lowering the risk for the economy by fighting the virus.

If the coronavirus proved something, it is that the half-learned (journalist, psychologist) is the greatest danger for mankind. pic.twitter.com/tIhXsIZRpb

— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) March 8, 2020

Admin Pantokrator wrote:

Летећи Полип wrote:Ah. Ne mogu liberalne demokratije da reaguju na isti način kao autoritarne tehnokratske države kao što je Kina, ili polumilitarizovana društva kao što je Izrael. Njihova teoretska prednost je upravo u ovakvim situacijama.  Sa druge strane, neoliberalna tržišta ne mogu da funkcionišu u stanju iščekivanja katastrofe koja možda se desi, a možda i ne. Trampara i ini (pa i Vučić) se ponašaju racionalno u okvirima svog sistema.

procitaj onaj kravarev link na vox