UK - Politika i društvo

Nebitno nek je 50- 50, uglavnom nema govora o tome da ljudi overwhelmingly hoce brexit. Zapravo rezultat ce najvise imati veze sa izbornim sistemom, ali tu laburistima niko niije kriv

Poslednji BMG poll pred izbore. 9 poena prednosti za Tories. Remain vs Leave 53- 47. Sva tragedija britanske politike u jednom pollu

Edit:

I jos jedan poll, u dlaku isto - 9% prednosti Cons. To je verovatno to. Best case scenario za Lab je da su ponovo malo omasili u njihovu korist (2%), plus trend da se nastavi (0,5%), plus efekat taktičkog glasanja (1%), znači oko 5-6% (at best). 330-340 MPs za Cons.  Da vidimo samo da li ce izaci jos neki poll do kraja dana sa nekim drasticno drugacijim rezultatima.

1 frišak, malo optimisticniji po Labour

Our final #GE2019 Westminster voting intention on behalf of the @Telegraph, is as follows:

CON 41% (-)
LAB 36% (+3)
LD 12% (-)
Other 11% (-3)

9th - 10th Dec

(changes from Savanta ComRes/Sunday Telegraph, Dec 7th)https://t.co/SwZAJxFqTk pic.twitter.com/PRibInIPwE

— Savanta ComRes (@SavantaComRes) December 11, 2019

mada..Telegraph je to...

ne znam. pravo pitanje je zasto tori rimejneri koji valjda toliko ima ne glasaju za libdemove. jasno je da je brexit za njih prihvatljiviji izbor nego korbinova vlada. ako je tako onda brexit nije centralno pitanje uk politike vec lazno.

Ni LAB ni CONS nisu ušli u kampanju samo sa Brexitom. LAB je ušao i sa ekonomijom, a CONS i sa, jbg, pričom koliko će biti loše pod Korbinom. Ali kao što postoji 16% Leavera koji će glasati za LAB (ok, tu je Corbyn uspeo da vrati nezanemarljiv procenat "u krilo"), tako ima i 18% Remainera koji će glasati za CONS. 

http://statsforlefties.blogspot.com/2019/12/polling-round-up-2019-general-election.html

Pricate o tome kao da je britanski sistem demokratski, a ne relikt koji treba da zauzdava demokratiju. Dokle god imate taj odvratan sistem gde cela zemlja nije jedna (ili dovoljno mali broj) izbornih jedinica, vec je iscepana na 500+ istih, u prednosti ce biti barabe sa parama.

Nova dva istrazivanja. U jednom CONS vode 12, u drugom 10 (mada je ovde gde vode deset, trend ok za LAB). Znaci ostaje da je srednja vrednost oko 9%.

Može li Boris popušiti za mesto u parlamentu?

Može, ali je vrlo malo verovatno - nije se dogodilo duže od 100 godina.

 Ako se to ipak dogodi, a torijevci formiraju vladu, on ima dve opcije: mogu mu ponuditi mesto u Domu lordova, što bi mu omogućilo da zadrži poziciju premijera (to je dozvoljena, ali vrlo nepristojna varijanta i do toga jednostavno ne bi došlo), ili bi neko od konzervativaca podneo ostavku u svojoj izbornoj jedinici, i Džonson bi u njoj pobedio sa lakoćom.

Hvala. Nisam znao te detalje.

Jos jedno. Again, odlican trend, ali...

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 45% (-)
LAB: 34% (+3)
LDEM: 9% (-2)

via @Survation, 10 - 11 Dec
Chgs. w/ 07 Dechttps://t.co/m1hoBpI81D

— Britain Elects (@britainelects) December 12, 2019

korbin ostavka, ovo je skandalozan rezultat. 

klošar tipa blera od pre 20 godina bi napravio 20% razlike

Drago Leteće Špageti Čudovište, udeli nam Korbina za UK premijera, molimo ti se... RAmen!

+1

At a Libertines gig in Manchester last night the fans started singing “Oh Jeremy Corbyn” while they were waiting for the band to come back on.

Most polls base their big Tory leads on an assumption young ppl won't bother to vote on Thurs 12

Young people need to prove them wrong! pic.twitter.com/KYgD1UqdTs

— Chelley Ryan :hand_splayed:️ #VoteLabour (@chelleryn99) December 11, 2019

Najmanja razlika po svim ispitivanjima je bila 5% u korist Torjevaca koliko sam video.

Prosek je bitan. Jedino cemu stvarno, realistično, mogu da se nadaju Laburisti je da veliki deo onih koji su neodlucni se u stvari dvoume između njih i LibDems. To je jedini "bazen" odakle realistićno može da dođe neko bar malo iznenađenjce.

Prosek cesto nije bitan ako se gledaju rezultati na poslednjim izborima i referendumu u britaniji.

Po regionima je zanimljivo...i izgleda prilično loše...

https://britainelects.newstatesman.com/who-leads-in-our-poll-tracker/

Tory Broadcasting Corporation:

Laura Kuenssberg: Electoral Commission issues warning after BBC reporter reveals postal vote information

Politics Live has been removed from BBC iPlayer since the programme was broadcast live

The elections watchdog has issued a warning that it may be an offence to share information obtained at postal vote opening sessions after the BBC's political editor shared details on live television.

Laura Kuenssberg said she had been told that ballot papers which have already been counted painted a "grim" picture for Labour.
During the interview on Politics Live, she admitted that while parties are not supposed to look at voting papers when they are verified - but not counted - they do "get a hint" of how they are doing.

The BBC hit back at the claims saying it did not believe an offence had been committed. However the programme has been removed from BBC iPlayer and is no longer available to watch.

'Grim' results

Kuenssberg made the comments after being asked about voter turnout in Thursday's election.


She said: "The forecast is that it's going to be wet and cold tomorrow, the postal votes, of course, have already arrived.
"The parties - they're not meant to look at it, but they do kind of get a hint - and on both sides people are telling me that the postal votes that are in are looking pretty grim for Labour in a lot of parts of the country.

"Of course postal voters tend to skew to elderly voters and people who vote early... but the kind of younger generation who we know skew much more to the Labour Party you might expect to turn out to the polls tomorrow. But in this winter election, turnout is just another one of these factors that we just can't predict."

BBC denial

The video of her remarks, broadcast on the eve of the general election, was widely shared on social media and provoked a response from the Electoral Commission.
In a statement on Twitter, the watchdog said: "It may be an offence to communicate any information obtained at postal vote opening sessions, including about votes cast, before a poll has closed. Anyone with information to suggest this has happened should report it immediately to the police."

A BBC Spokesperson said: “The BBC does not believe it, or its political editor, has breached electoral law." The spokesperson refused to comment on why the programme was no longer online.

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/bbc-laura-kuenssberg-politics-live-postal-votes-election-results-1338916

The @BBCEngland might have deleted all copies from their website of @bbclaurak breaking electoral law on camera, but they can’t delete this one.@ElectoralCommUK - please investigate. pic.twitter.com/E1X85NkmTq

— getnorthern ⧖ (@getnorthern) December 11, 2019

It's been totally professional, informative and in no way
did you ever BECOME the story rather than report on it...... pic.twitter.com/nl4fH3gPzT

— Laz,husband of Rachel. Destroyer of Worlds. (@lazaroumterror) December 11, 2019

BBC goes Guido Fawkes.

Na stranu što su mediji pod kontrolom milijardera jezivi, ali to koliko je BBC pristrasan je baš strašno. I potpuno je apsurdno da Labour pod Blairom i Brownom nije uradio skoro ništa povodom toga.

2019 Average Lead: 9.8%

2017 Average Lead: 6.6%
2017 Result: 2.5%

— Election Maps UK (@ElectionMapsUK) December 12, 2019

Nego, u koliko sati ćemo znati rezultate?

Zajednička izlazna anketa BBC-ja, ITV-a i Sky Newsa, koju radi Ipsos, objavljuje se u 23 po našem, kada se zatvaraju biračka mesta. Zanimljivo je da ne pitaju birače da se izjasne, već da zaokruže istovetnu kopiju listića i ubace je u anketarsku kutiju.

Izborni program BBC 1 se može gledati na BBC World Newsu, a Sky News ima na Youtubeu za one koji ga nemaju na kablovskoj.