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    Rat u Ukrajini

    Vilmos Tehenészfiú

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    Post by Vilmos Tehenészfiú Wed 17 May - 0:28

    kondo wrote:
    Vilmos Tehenészfiú wrote:
    Niije kondo rusofil, on je neutralan i smatra da mir nema alternativu. 

    I mi smo za mir, al prvo da Rusija izgubi.


    čak nisam ni neutralan, tj naravno da nisam /zagovaram ulazak kopnenih trupa pravog NATO na crveni trg/, ali mi obilato na onu stvar /kurac/ ide to NATO levičarenje /koje dominira i ovde/ pa često pišem budalaštine u fazonu dandrla dandrlaka

    Levicari su potiv Nato uvek i svugde, i u Ukrajini i u Ugandi.


    _____
    "Burundi je svakako sharmantno mesto cinika i knjiskih ljudi koji gledaju stvar sa svog olimpa od kartona."

    “Here he was then, cruising the deserts of Mexico in my Ford Torino with my wife and my credit cards and his black-tongued dog. He had a chow dog that went everywhere with him, to the post office and ball games, and now that red beast was making free with his lion feet on my Torino seats.”
    kondo

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    Post by kondo Wed 17 May - 0:29

    beatakeshi wrote:Nato levičarenje -  Rat u Ukrajini - Page 13 3137070404


    How NATO seduced European and Burundi left


    _____
    #FreeFacu

    Дакле, волео бих да се ЈСД Партизан угаси, али не и да сви (или било који) гробар умре.
    Vilmos Tehenészfiú

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    Post by Vilmos Tehenészfiú Wed 17 May - 0:32

    kondo wrote:
    beatakeshi wrote:Nato levičarenje -  Rat u Ukrajini - Page 13 3137070404


    How NATO seduced European and Burundi left
    Ja govorim o intelektualnoj eliti, ti o partijama.


    _____
    "Burundi je svakako sharmantno mesto cinika i knjiskih ljudi koji gledaju stvar sa svog olimpa od kartona."

    “Here he was then, cruising the deserts of Mexico in my Ford Torino with my wife and my credit cards and his black-tongued dog. He had a chow dog that went everywhere with him, to the post office and ball games, and now that red beast was making free with his lion feet on my Torino seats.”
    Nektivni Ugnelj

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    Post by Nektivni Ugnelj Wed 17 May - 0:35

    Vilmos Tehenészfiú wrote:
    kondo wrote:


    čak nisam ni neutralan, tj naravno da nisam /zagovaram ulazak kopnenih trupa pravog NATO na crveni trg/, ali mi obilato na onu stvar /kurac/ ide to NATO levičarenje /koje dominira i ovde/ pa često pišem budalaštine u fazonu dandrla dandrlaka

    Levicari su potiv Nato uvek i svugde, i u Ukrajini i u Ugandi.

    Mozda levicari po amerikama i francuskama Rat u Ukrajini - Page 13 1399639816

    kondo

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    Post by kondo Wed 17 May - 0:45

    Vilmos Tehenészfiú wrote:
    kondo wrote:


    How NATO seduced European and Burundi left
    Ja govorim o intelektualnoj eliti, ti o partijama.

    a pa lepo kaži noam čomski da ne gubimo vreme


    _____
    #FreeFacu

    Дакле, волео бих да се ЈСД Партизан угаси, али не и да сви (или било који) гробар умре.
    Vilmos Tehenészfiú

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    Post by Vilmos Tehenészfiú Wed 17 May - 0:50

    Čitaš mi misli.


    _____
    "Burundi je svakako sharmantno mesto cinika i knjiskih ljudi koji gledaju stvar sa svog olimpa od kartona."

    “Here he was then, cruising the deserts of Mexico in my Ford Torino with my wife and my credit cards and his black-tongued dog. He had a chow dog that went everywhere with him, to the post office and ball games, and now that red beast was making free with his lion feet on my Torino seats.”
    kondo

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    Post by kondo Wed 17 May - 1:01

    ko da pa ima neko drugi - mislim donald tramp nije levičar    Rat u Ukrajini - Page 13 1912529702


    _____
    #FreeFacu

    Дакле, волео бих да се ЈСД Партизан угаси, али не и да сви (или било који) гробар умре.
    kondo

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    Post by kondo Wed 17 May - 11:48

    i šta bi na kraju, ko laže - rusi ili ameri


    _____
    #FreeFacu

    Дакле, волео бих да се ЈСД Партизан угаси, али не и да сви (или било који) гробар умре.
    Anonymous
    Guest

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    Post by Guest Wed 17 May - 13:27

    To se lako moze egzaktno izracunati koristeci sakrivene kovid smrti kao proksi.

    Koeficijent americke lazljivosti je 1.19 (1.34M/1.12M), a ruske 3.34 (1.3M/390k). Znaci da Rusi lazu skoro 3 puta vise od Amera.
    Nektivni Ugnelj

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    Post by Nektivni Ugnelj Wed 17 May - 14:40

    Pa sad...

    Oko 20% vs oko 200%
    Filipenko

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    Post by Filipenko Wed 17 May - 14:41

    ZŽarković juče objavio da su četiri Srbina poginula u završnim borbama za oslobođenje Artjomovska, a dva su ranjena, od toga jedan teško. Plus još jedan koji je poginuo braneći Donjeck (mada je ZŽarković malo konfuzan, ponovi istu stvar 7 puta u barem 2-3 varijante). 

    Objektivni Berićć je javljao samo za ranjene, mrtve nije spominjao.
    kondo

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    Post by kondo Wed 17 May - 15:25

    host wrote:To se lako moze egzaktno izracunati koristeci sakrivene kovid smrti kao proksi.

    Koeficijent americke lazljivosti je 1.19 (1.34M/1.12M), a ruske 3.34 (1.3M/390k). Znaci da Rusi lazu skoro 3 puta vise od Amera.

    tvoj naučni pristup baš unosi dosta živine na učmali forum


    _____
    #FreeFacu

    Дакле, волео бих да се ЈСД Партизан угаси, али не и да сви (или било који) гробар умре.
    Nektivni Ugnelj

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    Post by Nektivni Ugnelj Wed 17 May - 15:36

    Uglavnom, bitno je da Rusija kvalitetno kupuje 1 vreme, taman dok Ukrajini stvarno signe 500-600 Leoparda 2 i Abramsa, Čelendžera i stotine artiljerijskih sistema a možda krenu i F-16tice i Miraži. E onda će lako.
    rumbeando

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    Post by rumbeando Thu 18 May - 16:11



    Del Cap

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    Post by Del Cap Thu 18 May - 20:45

    POLITICO
    How Ukraine could become the next South Korea
    Story by By Nahal Toosi • 9h ago

    U.S. officials are planning for the growing possibility that the Russia-Ukraine war will turn into a frozen conflict that lasts many years — perhaps decades — and joins the ranks of similar lengthy face-offs in the Korean peninsula, South Asia and beyond.

    The options discussed within the Biden administration for a long-term “freeze” include where to set potential lines that Ukraine and Russia would agree not to cross, but which would not have to be official borders. The discussions — while provisional — have taken place across various U.S. agencies and in the White House.


    It’s a scenario that may prove the most realistic long-term outcome given that neither Kyiv nor Moscow appear inclined to ever admit defeat. It’s also becoming increasingly likely amid the growing sense within the administration that an upcoming Ukrainian counteroffensive won’t deal a mortal blow to Russia.

    A frozen conflict — in which fighting pauses but neither side is declared the victor nor do they agree that the war is officially over — also could be a politically palatable long-term result for the United States and other countries backing Ukraine.

    It would mean the number of military clashes would fall, the costs of supporting Kyiv also likely would drop, and public attention to the war would wane.

    “We are planning for the long term, whether it looks frozen or thawed,” said a U.S. official familiar with the Biden administration’s discussions on Ukraine. The official said such planning is a growing focus of the administration, whereas in past months “it was all about the urgent and short-term.”

    Two other U.S. officials and a former Biden administration official confirmed that an extended freeze in fighting is one possibility for which the U.S. is preparing. U.S. officials also are thinking through the long-term security ties Washington will have with Kyiv, as well as Ukraine’s relationship with the NATO military alliance.

    “There’s a school of thought that says, ‘Oh, the Ukrainians have to have [the city of] Mariupol and Azov Sea access.’ There’s others less hung up about the placement of the lines as long as Ukraine is secure going into the future,” the former administration official said, describing the internal conversations.

    Such discussions remain in early stages, with the U.S. officials stressing that the war will remain hot for quite some time and that the Biden administration is intent on providing Ukraine with the weapons and support it needs to push the Russians out of as much territory as possible.

    Still, even the suggestion of such planning could undermine Ukrainian leaders’ confidence in America’s continued commitment to their cause, especially given agitation among some Republicans to lessen support for Kyiv.

    A fifth person, a senior Biden administration official speaking on behalf of the White House, said an array of contingency plans are being weighed, but the situation is fluid and the only safe prediction is that Russia will not conquer Ukraine. Like others interviewed, the official was granted anonymity to describe sensitive issues.

    While many U.S. officials avoid publicly talking about how the Russia-Ukraine conflict will evolve, Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. Mark Milley has repeatedly predicted that it will end in negotiations, not a military victory for either side.

    And the makeup of recent military aid packages to Ukraine reflects the Biden administration’s shift to a longer-term strategy, a Defense Department official said.

    The amount of equipment sent directly from existing U.S. stockpiles has steadily diminished over the past few months, while the packages of aid used to purchase new weapons from industry — a process that can take months to years — has increased.

    The Biden administration recently transferred $300 million worth of weapons from existing U.S. stockpiles, primarily ammunition, while providing $1.2 billion to purchase more complex weapons, such as air defenses, from industry.

    At the moment, Ukraine is preparing a counteroffensive against Russia, although the timing remains unclear. In recent days, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has suggested the counteroffensive would be delayed because Ukraine still needed more weapons from its Western partners, while also saying “the first important steps will be taken soon.”

    U.S. officials expect fighting to continue even after the counteroffensive.

    In the medium-term, many expect a stalemate, during which fighting continues but neither side gains much ground, or a war of attrition, which involves both sides trying to wreak massive losses of personnel and equipment on the other in the hopes the adversary will collapse.

    How Ukraine and Russia perform depends on sometimes uncontrollable factors ranging from air superiority to who’s in charge at the Kremlin.

    “Once you get past few months or a year, these wars tend to last years,” said Benjamin Jensen of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, who has analyzed the historical data. “Even with the most wildly successful Ukraine counteroffensive, you could still be seeing yourself fighting this time next year.”

    None of the administration officials who spoke to POLITICO would offer specifics about how the U.S. would handle a years-long war or describe the exact depth of planning for a frozen conflict — information that’s largely classified. One U.S. official stressed that the administration has always planned for both long-term and short-term possibilities.

    The longer the fight drags on, the more likely Russia and Ukraine will feel international and domestic pressure to negotiate a ceasefire, an armistice or another legal mechanism to halt, if not officially end, the war.

    Some U.S. officials and analysts say one rough model could be the Korean War. Active fighting in that conflict ended with an armistice in 1953, but, even 70 years later, the war has not been formally declared over.


    “A Korea-style stoppage is certainly something that’s been discussed by experts and analysts in and out of government” when it comes to Ukraine, the former Biden administration official said. “It’s plausible, because neither side would need to recognize any new borders and the only thing that would have to be agreed is to stop shooting along a set line.” (The negotiations for the Korea armistice lasted two years.)

    Other potentially relevant examples include the 2008 dispute between Georgia and Russia over two provinces; the more than 70-year-old India-Pakistan face-off over the Kashmir region, a period that includes three wars separated by long cold stretches; and arguably even segments of the Russia-Ukraine conflict between 2014 and 2022, waged over parts of Ukraine’s east and its Crimea region.

    Such halted wars occasionally resume: A 1994 ceasefire between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the Nagorno-Karabakh region held — though not perfectly — until heavy fighting broke the peace in 2020. The two countries are now trying to negotiate.

    Western involvement in each case also varies. The United States fought in the Korean War and still has thousands of troops in South Korea — a key difference with Ukraine, where American forces are not fighting. But Washington has had little role in other conflicts, such as Kashmir.

    A former U.S. intelligence official who handled Russia-related matters said Biden aides appear to be more willing these days to discuss long-term security guarantees for Ukraine — another sign they are thinking well past the coming Ukrainian counteroffensive.

    Ukraine wants to join NATO, and the military alliance’s secretary-general has said its members agree that eventually it will.


    The senior Biden administration official confirmed that U.S. officials are talking to the Ukrainians about the nature of the relationship in the future. “We want a Ukraine that can defend itself and deter future attacks,” the official said, stressing that Washington will not pressure Ukraine to enter negotiations against its will.


    If Ukraine’s NATO membership bid stalls, such guarantees could range from a NATO-style Article 5 mutual defense deal to Israel-style arms deals with Ukraine as a deterrent against Russia.


    At a minimum, some current and former U.S. officials say, Ukraine’s military must get special attention. That could include making sure Ukraine’s weapons and equipment are compatible with those of NATO countries and conducting joint training, even if Kyiv isn’t in the military alliance.

    Analysts and officials warned against assuming that a frozen conflict translates to geopolitical stability or less suffering among civilians caught in the disputed territories. The Korean peninsula and India-Pakistan are both now nuclear flashpoints as a result of decisions made by governments involved in the decades since the fights first began.

    Yuriy Sak, an adviser to Ukraine’s defense minister, said one reason Kyiv is constantly urging its Western partners to send more weapons and other aid is precisely because it wants to end the war quickly, not find itself in an endless face-off.

    Even if active fighting ceases, he said, “we will continue to live in a world in which on a daily basis, we have nuclear blackmail. On a daily basis, we have the risk of a global food crisis. On a daily basis, we are witnesses to atrocities and war crimes.”

    The Russian embassy in Washington did not respond to a request for comment.

    U.S. officials stress that they are trying to avoid black-and-white thinking as they map out the ways the Russia-Ukraine war can go. It’s possible, after all, that the conflict will wind up somewhere in between an active war and a chilled standoff.

    Jensen said that supporting Kyiv more long-term will mean thinking beyond immediate weapons needs and implementing plans to man, train and equip entire formations, as well as developing a relevant military doctrine.


    Other questions to consider in such circumstances include whether it is worth bringing in a multinational peacekeeping force.


    If active armed conflict ceases, the costs to the United States and other Ukrainian partners likely will fall over time. “It’s cheaper to arm a country that isn’t expending the weapons every day,” the former Biden administration official said.

    The former official speculated that the odds that a ceasefire would hold is higher than from 2014 to 2022 — when Russia seized Crimea and sowed chaos in parts of Ukraine’s east— because professional militaries are fully involved on both sides, as opposed to “separatists” backed by Russia.

    But the current war also has drawn in mercenary forces such as Russia’s Wagner Group, which could prove hard to tame.

    If a ceasefire or other type of stoppage holds long enough, attention from the public to the war also is likely to fade. That could ease political pressure on Western capitals from critics of the effort to help Kyiv. But it could also mean less of a push from those capitals to resolve the conflict once and for all.


    U.S. and European officials argued that it would be unwise to believe the threat from Russia to Ukraine will fade anytime soon — even if the fighting is halted for a long period or Putin exits the scene.


    “Conflict and potential for a renewed attack will not disappear, perhaps in decades,” said a European official familiar with Ukraine-related discussions.
    boomer crook

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    Post by boomer crook Thu 18 May - 20:55

    samo rusija nije severna koreja


    _____
    And Will's father stood up, stuffed his pipe with tobacco, rummaged his pockets for matches, brought out a battered harmonica, a penknife, a cigarette lighter that wouldn't work, and a memo pad he had always meant to write some great thoughts down on but never got around to, and lined up these weapons for a pygmy war that could be lost before it even started
    Nektivni Ugnelj

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    Post by Nektivni Ugnelj Thu 18 May - 22:50

    Potpuno je moguce. Ne svidja mi se, ali je potpuno moguce.
    Tovar

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    Post by Tovar Fri 19 May - 2:08

    Meni zamrznuti konflikt izgleda kao najrealniji epilog. Rusija je praktično izgubila sve šanse za pobjedu u prvom tjednu, kad je 'blitz' propao. S druge strane, ne vidim ni kako Ukrajina može povratiti sav svoj teritorij. Rat jednom mora stati, pa sad hoće li ponestati oružja ili ljudi... Ali čini mi se da smo od toga udaljeni barem još godinu-dvije, da ne kažem ukrajinsku ofenzivu ili dvije.
    Vilmos Tehenészfiú

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    Post by Vilmos Tehenészfiú Fri 19 May - 6:17

    Ne veruem. Biće neko primirje za godinu, pa onda za par godina opet bum tras dok ne isteraju Ruse.


    _____
    "Burundi je svakako sharmantno mesto cinika i knjiskih ljudi koji gledaju stvar sa svog olimpa od kartona."

    “Here he was then, cruising the deserts of Mexico in my Ford Torino with my wife and my credit cards and his black-tongued dog. He had a chow dog that went everywhere with him, to the post office and ball games, and now that red beast was making free with his lion feet on my Torino seats.”
    Nektivni Ugnelj

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    Post by Nektivni Ugnelj Fri 19 May - 8:55

    To je najverovatniji ishod u smislu da.je sansa za to 50-60%, a za ostale scenarije po 25, 15 i tako dalje, a ne u smislu da je za to sansa 90%. Bar ja to tako vidim. 

    Ukrajina ce jako tesko povrati sve teritorije, ali da bi se znacajno umanjila sansa za smrznuti konflikt to nije ni potrebno. Dovoljno je recimo da na primer štrpne malo Krima ili negde izbije na Azov i Putin u ovom stadijumu rata to najverovatnije ne moze da prihvati kao status quo.
    Notxor

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    Post by Notxor Fri 19 May - 13:54

    Ma jel' nam to Zelenski prošao preko Srbije? Jel' se javio Vučiću?

    https://flightaware.com/live/flight/CTM1022/history/20230519/0432Z/EPRZ/OEJN


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      Sweet and Tender Hooligan  
    rumbeando

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    Post by rumbeando Fri 19 May - 14:53

    fikret selimbašić

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    Post by fikret selimbašić Fri 19 May - 14:55



    _____
    Međuopštinski pustolov.

    Zli stolar.
    fikret selimbašić

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    Post by fikret selimbašić Fri 19 May - 18:56



    _____
    Međuopštinski pustolov.

    Zli stolar.
    Vilmos Tehenészfiú

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    Post by Vilmos Tehenészfiú Fri 19 May - 19:04

    Kako stojimo sa crvenim linijama danas?


    _____
    "Burundi je svakako sharmantno mesto cinika i knjiskih ljudi koji gledaju stvar sa svog olimpa od kartona."

    “Here he was then, cruising the deserts of Mexico in my Ford Torino with my wife and my credit cards and his black-tongued dog. He had a chow dog that went everywhere with him, to the post office and ball games, and now that red beast was making free with his lion feet on my Torino seats.”

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