Rat u Ukrajini

Notxor wrote:Nije glupost ako kamiondžije koji prolaze kroz Mađarsku ne moraju da razmišljaju kad će i da li će da odlete u vazduh.

Naravno. Odluka Madjara nije doneta u vakuumu, vec u svetlu danasnje pretnje (za koju mi nije jasno ne zbog cega nije ranije izrecena, vec sto se vec uveliko ne realizuje) da ce isporuke oruzja biti legitimna meta ruske vojske.

Filipenko wrote:

Mór Thököly wrote:Ukrajinci, a i za Evropu bi to bilo dobro, mada je sad debelo dockan, a i njihive elite prosto nisu isle u tom smeru vec predugo, bi najveci udarac zadali Moskvi kada bi istakli pretenziju na prvenstvo. Crna Gora je to pokusavala pre WW1 da uradi Srbiji, ali disbalans je prosto preveliki, a i Duklja/Zeta zaista nije 1 birthplace. Kijev jeste i Ukrajina je ogromna za evropske pojmove. Cak i 1 Timoti Snajder im je rekao nesto slicno - nemojte odbacivati ruski jezik, napravite "svoj" ruski jezik, kao sto amerikanci imaju "svoj" engleski i budite legitimni naslednik, jedan od, te kulture ne dajuci nista od svog suvereniteta.

Ti se zezas ili sta? Pa sta je drugo pravljenje "antirusije" o kojoj Putin trubi, kroz prizmu usvajanja ekstremnih ukrajinskih nacionalistickih ideologija? Oni to i tvrde, i to mnogo sire od jezika - da su oni originalni, da su ovi Rusi zapravo Moskalji, talog koji se mnozio sa prljavim Baltima, ogavnim Mongolima, sugavim Turcima, katolickim Poljacima i ostalim olosem, kako su oni u proseku lepsi, plavlji, visi od ostalih itd. OK, u domenu samog jezika su isli djonom, ali u sirem kulturnom poretku, oni su pravili upravo to - pretendenta na rusku originalnost koji bi, u slucaju da Rusija sledeci put stucne i raspadne se na 5-6 delova, postali pijemont ponovnog okupljanja ruskih drzava, cime bi nacisti u Kijevu koji bi do tog trenutka vec uspostavili otvorenu vlast umesto ovog prikrivenog izivljavanja po provincijama, dosli i u posed oruzja kojim bi mogli da uniste svet 100 puta.

Istovremeno, to je i razlog zasto sam spominjao da je ovo lekcija za nas kako moramo u buducnosti sa Crnogorcima i da najpre moramo eliminisati svaku budalu koja prica da su Crnogorci i Srbi isto, a kamoli da je Crna Gora nekakva Srpska Sparta.

Nije geneza ukrajinskog nacionalizma i uopste ukr. nacije tako isla. Uzimas neke ekstremiste kao mejnstrim. A jezik nije periferna nego centralna stvar.

Današnje crtice:

- Zelenski objavio da je poginulo 1300 ukrajinskih vojnika uz tvrdnju da je Rusa poginulo 10x više. Takođe rekao da će morati da unište Kijev da bi ga zauzeli i da mu je jasno da to mogu da urade ako dođu sa stotinama hiljada vojnika i stotinama ili hiljadama tenkova.

- Putin razgovarao sa Šolcom i Makronom, rekao im da Ukrajina vrši odmazdu nad neistomišljenicima, drži civile kao taoce i živi štit i stavlja teško naoružanje blizu bolnica, škola i obdaništa. Takođe je potvrdio da se pregovori s Ukrajincima odvijaju video linkom i da se sa njima razgovara o ispunjavanju nekih ruskih zahteva. U nemačkom saopštenju o razgovoru kaže se samo da su ova dvojica tražila prekid vatre odmah i da je dogovor da se drugi detalji ne iznose. Francuzi kažu da nema znakova da Putin popušta.

- Centar Odese:

Spoiler:

Mogu da dodju i sa jednom nuklearkom

Geneza nacionalizma na istoku evrope je vrlo jednostavna - pad komunizma je otvorio prostor za nove ideje vremena i ljude

Desno je dakle nova paradigma. A sad kako smo dosli tacno do bataljona naci

To mozda nato moze da pojasni

Inace, vidim da se ne prenosi toliko da je Zelenski danas izjavio da je ovo istovremeno i gradjanski rat i rat za nezavisnost, priznavsi po prvi put da masakriraju proruski nastrojene ljude sirom zemlje. Naravno, ovo drugo nije rekao on, nego ja zakljucujem ko su svi ti poubijani ljudi sirom Ukrajine o kojima nema ni reci u medijima buduci da se Ukrajina predstavlja kao monolit koji brani nasrtaje azijatskih hordi.

Nisu samo loše vesti:

NEW: Russian FSB agents came to homes of top Google and Apple officials and threatened to take them to prison.

Part of a massive Kremlin pressure campaign against US tech now accelerating amid Ukraine war. Exclusive with @josephmenn https://t.co/ANLtZiKLhY

— Greg Miller (@gregpmiller) March 12, 2022

A member of the Kherson regional parliament says Russia's planning a referendum to create a "Kherson People's Republic." Which invites images of a future Ukraine carved up into separatist fiefdoms directed from Moscow https://t.co/b9qcelVCx2

— Alec Luhn (@ASLuhn) March 12, 2022

More than 2,000 people gathered in Melitopol, Ukraine, to demand the release of the city's mayor, Ivan Fedorov, who Ukrainian officials say was abducted from an administrative building by Russia. pic.twitter.com/L5q8RmilNG

— NPR (@NPR) March 12, 2022

Notxor wrote:Nisu samo loše vesti:

NEW: Russian FSB agents came to homes of top Google and Apple officials and threatened to take them to prison.

Part of a massive Kremlin pressure campaign against US tech now accelerating amid Ukraine war. Exclusive with @josephmenn https://t.co/ANLtZiKLhY

— Greg Miller (@gregpmiller) March 12, 2022

 


Ali ovo je najjace:

Google rushed its threatened executive to hotel and checked her in under assumed name. 
Russian agents showed up there almost immediately and threatened prison again.

Da mi je videti tog lika koji je smislio lukav plan da izbegne FSB tako sto ce osobu X koja je na merama prebaciti u hotel pod laznim imenom 

[size=40]Preparing for Defeat[/size]
Francis Fukuyama


[size=16]I’m writing this from Skopje, North Macedonia, where I’ve been for the last week teaching one of our Leadership Academy for Development courses. Following the Ukraine war is no different here in terms of available information, except that I’m in an adjacent time zone, and the fact that there is more support for Putin in the Balkans than in other parts of Europe. A lot of the latter is due to Serbia, and Serbia's hosting of Sputnik.

I’ll stick my neck out and make several prognostications:

[/size][list="display: flex; -webkit-box-align: center; align-items: center; -webkit-box-orient: vertical; -webkit-box-direction: normal; flex-direction: column; word-break: break-word; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: normal; box-sizing: inherit; margin-top: 32px; margin-right: 0px; margin-left: 16px; padding-right: 16px; padding-left: 8px; line-height: 26px; min-width: 100%; padding-inline-start: 16px;"][*]Russia is heading for an outright defeat in Ukraine. Russian planning was incompetent, based on a flawed assumption that Ukrainians were favorable to Russia and that their military would collapse immediately following an invasion. Russian soldiers were evidently carrying dress uniforms for their victory parade in Kyiv rather than extra ammo and rations. Putin at this point has committed the bulk of his entire military to this operation—there are no vast reserves of forces he can call up to add to the battle. Russian troops are stuck outside various Ukrainian cities where they face huge supply problems and constant Ukrainian attacks.

[*]The collapse of their position could be sudden and catastrophic, rather than happening slowly through a war of attrition. The army in the field will reach a point where it can neither be supplied nor withdrawn, and morale will vaporize. This is at least true in the north; the Russians are doing better in the south, but those positions would be hard to maintain if the north collapses.

[*]There is no diplomatic solution to the war possible prior to this happening. There is no conceivable compromise that would be acceptable to both Russia and Ukraine given the losses they have taken at this point.

[*]The United Nations Security Council has proven once again to be useless. The only helpful thing was the General Assembly vote, which helps to identify the world’s bad or prevaricating actors.

[*]The Biden administration’s decisions not to declare a no-fly zone or help transfer Polish MiGs were both good ones; they've kept their heads during a very emotional time. It is much better to have the Ukrainians defeat the Russians on their own, depriving Moscow of the excuse that NATO attacked them, as well as avoiding all the obvious escalatory possibilities. The Polish MiGs in particular would not add much to Ukrainian capabilities. Much more important is a continuing supply of Javelins, Stingers, TB2s, medical supplies, comms equipment, and intel sharing. I assume that Ukrainian forces are already being vectored by NATO intelligence operating from outside Ukraine.

[*]The cost that Ukraine is paying is enormous, of course. But the greatest damage is being done by rockets and artillery, which neither MiGs nor a no-fly zone can do much about. The only thing that will stop the slaughter is defeat of the Russian army on the ground.

[*]Putin will not survive the defeat of his army. He gets support because he is perceived to be a strongman; what does he have to offer once he demonstrates incompetence and is stripped of his coercive power?

[*]The invasion has already done huge damage to populists all over the world, who prior to the attack uniformly expressed sympathy for Putin. That includes Matteo Salvini, Jair Bolsonaro, Éric Zemmour, Marine Le Pen, Viktor Orbán, and of course Donald Trump. The politics of the war has exposed their openly authoritarian leanings.

[*]The war to this point has been a good lesson for China. Like Russia, China has built up seemingly high-tech military forces in the past decade, but they have no combat experience. The miserable performance of the Russian air force would likely be replicated by the People’s Liberation Army Air Force, which similarly has no experience managing complex air operations. We may hope that the Chinese leadership will not delude itself as to its own capabilities the way the Russians did when contemplating a future move against Taiwan.

[*]Hopefully Taiwan itself will wake up as to the need to prepare to fight as the Ukrainians have done, and restore conscription. Let’s not be prematurely defeatist.

[*]Turkish drones will become bestsellers.

[*]A Russian defeat will make possible a “new birth of freedom,” and get us out of our funk about the declining state of global democracy. The spirit of 1989 will live on, thanks to a bunch of brave Ukrainians.

[/list]


https://www.americanpurpose.com/articles/preparing-for-defeat/

A smejemo se ljubiteljima cara Putina i njihovim fantazijama i tešenju

Lebanon will be facing food shortages in as little as a month if the Ukraine crisis continues, a high-ranking Lebanese official said on Friday.

Lebanon’s heavy reliance on imported food, particularly sunflower oil and wheat from Ukraine, has jeopardised food security.

The war could lead to prices soaring even higher in Lebanon, where the costs of food increased by 2,076 per cent between 2018 and 2021.

“The production season in Ukraine is destroyed," Dany Gedeon, director general of Lebanon’s Industry Ministry, told The National. "We’ll be facing real food security problems within a month or two in Lebanon and in the rest of the world.”

Customs figures show that in 2020, Lebanon imported 81 per cent of its wheat from Ukraine and 15 per cent from Russia. The two countries were also Lebanon’s main suppliers of sunflower seed oil.
...
Bread prices have remained relatively cheap thanks to subsidies from Lebanon’s cash-strapped central bank.
...

But further price rises on food could lead to social unrest, say analysts. “The Ukraine invasion is an additional disaster,” said one Lebanese diplomat, who asked to remain anonymous.

Mr Gedeon said Lebanese businesses were searching for alternative sources of wheat. “We’ll see if it will be possible,” he said.

The alarmism expressed by Lebanese officials is to be expected, said Riad Saade, director of the Lebanese Centre of Agricultural Research and Studies. “Prices of wheat are skyrocketing around the world,” he said.
...

https://www.thenationalnews.com/mena/lebanon/2022/03/11/lebanon-expects-food-security-problems-within-a-month-or-two/

disident wrote:A smejemo se ljubiteljima cara Putina i njihovim fantazijama i tešenju

Sta ocekivati od predavaca na akademiji liderstva u Skoplju.

lijepo je vidjeti da nema samo kod nas avetinja

Del Cap wrote:Ukrajina je oko 400k vojnika provukla kroz front u Donbasu poslednjih 8 godina, kroz rotacije od po nekoliko meseci, i to je prva iskusna rezerva. Rusi nemaju toliko vojske koja je iskusila rat, imaju nešto malo iz Sirije (drugačiji rat na izvestan način) i neki broj koji jeste prošao kroz Donbas ali mislim da je to zanemarljivo malo u odnosu na Ukrajince. Ovo starije (Gruzija, Čečenija itd) nije po brojkama relevantno.

Лол.  
Овај навод о 400к искусних ветерана си поставио са неког линка пре десетак дана, баш ме је насмејао и питао сам се ко ће на то да наседне, кад оно...

Сукоб у ДЛНР од 2014. је толико атипичан од било чега, да назвати то неким битним искуством је велика глупост. Годинама укопане и непомеране позиције, статичан рат, нема авијације на обе стране, а ређе и тешког наоружања.
Кад би узео Гарија био би Џон Рамбо за већину тих ликова.

Ово је потпуно другачији сукоб. Грузија највише подсећа на то, али и то је било давно.

MNE wrote:lijepo je vidjeti da nema samo kod nas avetinja

Bogami Staljinami ovi su izasli na vr' planine po cici zimi umesto vecernje setnje po prijatnom vremenu. Ispada da su Vulgari iskreniji Rusofili od nas.

Filipenko wrote:

MNE wrote:lijepo je vidjeti da nema samo kod nas avetinja

Bogami Staljinami ovi su izasli na vr' planine po cici zimi umesto vecernje setnje po prijatnom vremenu. Ispada da su Vulgari iskreniji Rusofili od nas.

Cekaj, pa naravno.

Pademi na pamet-kad su naredni precednicki izbori u Rusiji?

kapetanm wrote:Pademi na pamet-kad su naredni precednicki izbori u Rusiji?

2024 

Али кога то брига, до тада ће красти изборе као у Белорусији, бабе ће да излазе у сред бела дана са џаковима гласова и ником ништа.

kapetanm wrote:Pademi na pamet-kad su naredni precednicki izbori u Rusiji?

Prethodni su bili 2018. a naredni su 2024. Mandat je 6 godina.