Virus

Mór Thököly wrote:Ok, sa merama, i medju prokuzenom i vakcinisanom populacijom tesko da ce ostati bas 3,5. Ali je to slaba uteha, jer i npr 2 je ogromno

Ne, to nije R0 (koji se odnosi na populaciju bez ikakvog imuniteta i neprimenjivanje bilo kakvih mera), to je trenutni R u JAR.

Da vidimo šta kažu statistike - broj hospitalizacija raste više nego u prethodnim talasima, na kiseoniku je isti udeo pacijenata, a na intenzivnoj manje nego kod delte. U apsolutnim brojevima prilično je izvesno da će broj pacijenata na kiseoniku i intenzivnoj vrlo uskoro premašiti onaj iz delta talasa. Profil pacijenata je znatno mlađi, što naravno doprinosi bržem oporavku tj. kraćem zadržavanju u bolnici, ali se pomera ka starijima.

So what does this all mean?

First up, does it mean Omicron is "more mild" than previous variants?

Well, far more likely it means that people who’ve been vaccinated or infected are showing solid protection against severe disease. And this should not be a surprise!

— John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch) December 4, 2021

The case for masking up: new study shows tight-fitting #FFP2 & vKN95 face masks drastically reduce the risk of #COVID19 infection - but even ill-fitting masks still significantly reduce the risk of infection https://t.co/vBb4JgBs76 @maxplanckpress pic.twitter.com/V2pkcfEc64

— Max Planck Society (@maxplanckpress) December 3, 2021

Ever since day one of the pandemic, immunologists have stressed that while protection against *infection* can indeed be quite vulnerable to mutated variants, protection against severe disease should hold up much better.

— John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch) December 4, 2021

So if we take the equation:

ICU beds filled = people infected x risk of needing ICU

"People infected" could get very big, very quickly, even with lots of vax and prior infection.

So race is now on to use third doses to get "risk of requiring ICU" as small as possible

— John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch) December 4, 2021

Now some 80-90 of the 120 are PCR pos, 13 of these confirmed omicron, the rest waiting for sequencing results. Some of those infected w omicron were not at the party but present at the same restaurant that evening. Not looking good re transmissibility. https://t.co/O9MYseafXy

— Gunhild Alvik Nyborg (@GANyborg) December 3, 2021

A total of 19 cases of Omicron verified in Norway by now, around Oslo & elsewhere. Green: No suspected cases. Yellow: Suspected cases. Red: Verified cases (see the tiny red dot on the west coast) https://t.co/PTIGPKwN0l pic.twitter.com/hCv7iJbUoH

— Gunhild Alvik Nyborg (@GANyborg) December 4, 2021

#Omicron update in Denmark. 135 new cases Saturday and now 183 cases in total. Hats off to @SSI_dk working non-stop the past week to implement new screening assays! Note, we've found many cases in DK as we test a lot... No need to think Denmark is unique. https://t.co/ayIpfHXIPk

— Mads Albertsen (@MadsAlbertsen85) December 5, 2021

UK Omicron cases reach 246 after 86 new infections reported, according to latest figures https://t.co/vXvyexPo4C

— Sky News (@SkyNews) December 5, 2021

A little over a week since it was announced it is already clear that Omicron is really serious. Some important pieces of evidence have begun to coalesce. While the worst outcomes still seem unlikely, what we have is quite bad enough to be going on with, a thread, with nuance 1/n

— Bill Hanage (@BillHanage) December 5, 2021

Spoiler:

The total number of positive cases of the #Omicron variant of #coronavirus in India has reached 21 with nine new cases detected in Rajasthan and seven more in Maharashtra on Sunday.https://t.co/xf8MjcbE9M

— Economic Times (@EconomicTimes) December 5, 2021

Biće džabe eventualno 5 ili čak 10 puta manja smrtnost kod onih koji uspeju da dođu u bolnice ako talas bude 20 ili 50 puta veći od bilo kog dosadašnjeg i zgusnutiji od ranijih. Onda gomila ugroženih ljudi neće uopšte moći da dobije mesto u bolnici.

To je problem.

Naravno, možda se desi neko čudo da talas ne bude ogroman, ali zasad ne vidim šta će to tačno da ga spreči kad se uspešno zaražavaju i šire dalje i preležali i vakcinisani, više nego kod delte.

Sa ovakvom zaraznošću moraju se sprovoditi vrlo stroge mere da bi se on držao pod kontrolom, a mnoge zemlje na to neće biti spremne.

pa ne može da bude 50 puta veći jer će se onda čitava populacija prokužiti u roku od mjesec dana, evo kod nas je delta pri kraju a trajala je 5 mjeseci uz sva kočenja mjerama i vakcinacijom

A to je kao nemoguće? Ako virus bude sveprisutan pitanje je hoće li iko imati dovoljno jak imunitet da ostane nezaražen.

pa nije nemoguće ali ćemo onda imati ekspresno prokuživanje i riješen problem

Aha, rešen problem sa par desetina miliona mrtvih. Yaaay!

Plus ti lično kao veliki stručnjak garantuješ da se pri tom ekspresnom prokuživanju neće roditi neka još zajebanija varijanta zbog koje će cela stvar da se opet produži.

rumbeando wrote:Aha, rešen problem sa par desetina miliona mrtvih. Yaaay!

Plus ti lično kao veliki stručnjak garantuješ da se pri tom ekspresnom prokuživanju neće roditi neka još zajebanija varijanta zbog koje će cela stvar da se opet produži.

ne nego pesto osamsto miliona

virus je već u cirkulaciji par mjeseci, do sada bi neko negdje primijetio povećanu smrtnost

nema taj virus povećanu smrtnost, umire kad mu dođe vreme

bila nam juce u poseti drugarica moje cerke. jutros kazu slinava, test pozitivan. sinoc ta mala jela jabuku pa ostavila, a moja mala dohvatila pa nastavila. sleduje nam druga tura kovida u kuci. stay tuned...

Ajoooj, pa da l' je moguće?

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Omicron proves we’re not in control of Covid – only global action can stop this pandemic
Dr Jeremy Farrar, director of the Wellcome Trust, a global charitable foundation
If we keep allowing this virus to spread through unvaccinated populations, the next variant could be even more deadly

It’s almost two years since we first heard of Covid-19, and a year since the first Covid vaccines were rolled out. Yet this staggering progress is being squandered. We have drifted for months now, with richer countries, taking a very blinkered domestic focus, lulled into thinking that the worst of the pandemic was behind us. This variant reminds us all that we remain closer to the start of the pandemic than the end.

There is a lot we need to learn about the Omicron variant. Whether or not this is a pandemic-changing variant – one that really evades our vaccines and treatments – remains to be seen. Research will tell us more in the coming days and weeks, and we must watch and follow the data closely while giving the brilliant scientific teams time to get the answers. Although I am very worried about countries with limited access to vaccines, I am cautiously hopeful that our current vaccines will continue to protect us against severe sickness and death, if we are fully vaccinated.
But that may not be true for the next variant.
The longer this virus continues to spread in largely unvaccinated populations globally, the more likely it is that a variant that can overcome our vaccines and treatments will emerge. If that happens, we could be close to square one.
Importantly, right now, the urgent things haven’t changed: wearing masks indoors, increasing testing, social distancing, isolating if positive (with support to do so) and vaccination will all help to drive down transmission and protect against illness. We will probably never know for certain how or where Omicron originated, but we must continue to protect the most vulnerable as a priority, including immune-compromised people, the elderly and healthcare workers.
It is understandable that countries are moving to use boosters to protect their populations. This must happen in parallel with ensuring global vaccine supply. Supply is finally increasing, and, with political will, it can be achieved. Rich countries, who have the majority of existing supply, must share more doses over the coming months.
Covid-19 has already killed millions and changed everyday life for us all, but we must do everything we can to avoid a return to lockdowns – a sign that public health has failed. World leaders, by continuing to ignore the warnings and focusing only on their national populations, are playing with fire and putting our hard-won progress at risk. It is unbelievable that the ACT-Accelerator is still having to plead for the funding urgently needed to end this pandemic.
This political drift and lack of leadership is prolonging the pandemic for everyone, with governments unwilling to really address inequitable access to the vaccines, tests and treatment. We are not yet in control of this pandemic – Omicron or an even worse variant could arise at any time. There have been wonderful speeches, warm words but not the actions needed to ensure fair access to what we know works and would bring the pandemic to a close.
Even before we learned of this new variant, the global picture was already deeply troubling. The fourth wave we are seeing in Europe and southern Africa will soon hit the US, central and south America, and Asia. As the UK passes the G7 presidency to Germany, and Italy hands G20 to Indonesia later this month, it is crucial that world leaders see this for what it is: still the most urgent threat facing our world.
We will only bring this pandemic to an end by working together globally and sharing access to all the vital public health tools needed to reduce transmission everywhere and save lives. It is staggering and utterly frustrating that, two years on, governments still haven’t woken up and realised this is in their enlightened, shared self-interest.
Acting in national self-interest will only ever perpetuate this crisis, trapping us in a cycle of waves, new variants, lost lives and continued economic and societal disruption.
No country should believe they are safe, purely because they’ve vaccinated their own populations. We can and must do better than this.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2021/dec/04/omicron-proves-were-not-in-control-of-covid-only-global-action-can-stop-this-pandemic
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I’ve been cautious about saying much about omicron but I think it’s getting into the space where I can add something. And what I’d like to say is: despite the encouraging signs from South Africa that the omicron wave is milder than those that came before, I’m still worried. 🧵

— James Ward (@JamesWard73) December 5, 2021

...and the vast majority of reinfections and breakthroughs will be mild. But I’ve run a few numbers, and *even with that assumption of maintained severe disease protection*, a wave of hospitalisations with a peak similar to wave 2 (in Jan 2021) is quite possible.

— James Ward (@JamesWard73) December 5, 2021

(niz se nastavlja)