Bela Rusija

http://www.iswresearch.org/2020/08/warning-violent-confrontation-between.html

Warning: Violent Confrontation between Protesters and Military Likely

August 23, 2020, 10:00 am EDT

By Mason Clark

 

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is likely preparing to suppress protests in Minsk by force. Lukashenko appeared in a military uniform during public appearances on August 22, likely to signal a new phase of his response.[1] The Belarusian Ministry of Defense released a statement on Telegram the morning of August 23 claiming protesters are waving the flags of “fascists” and stated the military will directly protect World War II memorials in Belarus.[2] The defense of World War II monuments has been a major theme of Russian information operations for years.[3]  The Belarusian military began deploying in Minsk the morning of August 23.[4] The military is assembling in Victory Park, about two miles north of the main protest location at Independence Square.[5] Belarusian army units are preparing barricades and setting up barbed wire.[6] The head of the Minsk Metropolitan Police additionally warned protesters to halt two weeks of illegal protests that have ”damaged” Minsk and not to take part in planned “provocations.”[7]

The Kremlin information operation on Belarus is expanding in the English language space. English language propaganda is connecting the red and white opposition flag to Belarusian Nazism.[8] Russian troll accounts are posting images of people doing Nazi salutes with the opposition flag.[9] The accusation that protest leaders are Nazis is explicitly parallel with the framing the Kremlin used about the 2014 Euromaidan revolution in Ukraine.

Protests are continuing around Belarus without major interference from security forces. Several protests numbering in the thousands are gathering in Belarusian cities including Brest, Grodno, Zhodino, Bobruisk, and others, predominantly the sites of ongoing nationwide strikes.[10] Belarusian security forces are likely concentrating in Minsk to contest the major march, but Belarusian military forces concentrated in the Grodno region for exercises could also challenge protesters there. There is no evidence that they are yet doing so, however.

Opposition Telegram channel NEXTA is likely attempting to provoke a fight with the Belarusian military. NEXTA has promoted the August 23 “March of the New Belarus” as a stationary event throughout the past week, calling on protesters to assemble in Minsk’s Independence Square from 2:00 pm to 7:00 pm local time.[11] The morning of August 23, NEXTA issued a follow-up statement calling on Belarusians to gather and stating that “[NEXTA has] a clear plan on how to get rid of the occupiers with minimal losses.”[12] NEXTA has never referenced “losses” in any prior statements and has avoided calls to confront security forces. The decision to direct the protesters toward a concentration of security forces and a World War II memorial appears to feed directly into the Russian information campaign, and is a diversion from the previous tight protest focus on Lukashenko’s misdeeds.

Protesters gather in front of Belarusian army barricades around Minsk's Victory Park. Photo: tut.by

An estimated 200,000 Belarusians gathered on Independence Square and the surrounding streets by 3:00 pm local time.[13] NEXTA issued new instructions at 3:15 pm local time, calling for a moment of silence at 3:30 pm before a march at 4:00 pm, “with destination to be announced.”[14] At 4:00 pm, NEXTA issued instructions direct protesters to march to the “Planeta Hotel,” directly across the street from Victory Park and the Belarusian military deployment.[15] Protesters began assembling across the street from security forces in Victory Park around 4:30 pm local time.[16] Two representatives of opposition leader Svetlana Tikanouskaya (Maria Kolesnikova and Olga Kovalkova) arrived at Victory Park just after 5:00 pm local time and asked protesters to move back from the fence with the security forces and "not create provocations."[17] Their arrival likely indicates Tikanouskaya and the Coordination Council do not agree with NEXTA’s attempt to provoke a confrontation with security forces.

 

NEXTA likely seeks to provoke a confrontation with security forces to militarize the protest movement. Lukashenko will likely exploit this opportunity to crack down on protesters under the pretext of protecting monuments.

Military forces have locked off the road leading to #Lukashenko ‘s Place. Thousands of people are marching in that direction. According to reports #Lukashenko is in the Palace right now and evacuation is prepared. #Belarus pic.twitter.com/gVntMEt1re

— Belarus Free Theatre (@BFreeTheatre) August 23, 2020

Лукашенко идет на вид с обычным АКС-74У. Без магазина. С откинутым прикладом, на который переброшен ремень. На нем разгрузочный жилет, в котором просматриваются магазины в кармашках. Рядом идет сын Коля. «Там никого не осталось, да?» pic.twitter.com/I13X6PFHTW

— Новая Газета (@novaya_gazeta) August 23, 2020

Минск. На крыше Дворца независимости группа людей, предположительно с биноклями. pic.twitter.com/H8mUGVb6Es

— TUT.BY (@tutby) August 23, 2020

On the helicopter video at 1:36 you can hear Lukashenko saying "they scattered like rats!" about his own people. A true leader!

— Tadeusz Giczan (@TadeuszGiczan) August 23, 2020

Телеграм-канал «Пул первого», который предположительно ведет пресс-секретарь президента Беларуси, сообщил, что Лукашенко прилетел во Дворец независимости, а не эвакуировался оттуда, как сообщали ранее. На опубликованных кадрах у него в руках винтовка. pic.twitter.com/iOK9GJQ4xl

— Новая Газета (@novaya_gazeta) August 23, 2020

На третьем видео Лукашенко сидит в вертолете. Он командует подлететь ближе к проспекту Победителей и говорит: «Как крысы разбежались». Бронежилет на Лукашенко если и есть под разгрузкой, то легкий, скрытого ношения. Зато опять хорошо видны карманы с магазинами и сам автомат. pic.twitter.com/eWc4gpVe7K

— Новая Газета (@novaya_gazeta) August 23, 2020

Telegram channel "Pool of the first," allegedly run by a spokesman for the president of Belarus, said that Lukashenko had arrived at the Independence Palace, not evacuated there, as previously reported. He's holding a rifle in the published footage.

Lukashenko looks at the usual AKS-74U. No shop. With the buttstock folded down, the belt thrown over it. He is wearing an unloading vest, which looks through the magazines in his pockets. Next comes Kolya's son. "There's no one left, is there?"

In video three, Lukashenko is sitting in a helicopter. He commands a flight closer to Pobediteley Avenue and says, "How the rats got away." If there's a bulletproof vest on Lukashenko under unloading, it's light, hidden wear. But again you can clearly see the pockets with the magazines and the machine gun itself.

Telegram channels also report that Lukashenka's son, Mikalai (15) is also here. And in full combat readiness. pic.twitter.com/BWSN0G6DXD

— Franak Viačorka (@franakviacorka) August 23, 2020

Guys, no worries. President is safe now. pic.twitter.com/FRhrVXicgV

— Franak Viačorka (@franakviacorka) August 23, 2020

disident wrote:I ovo ne lici kao na poslednju odbranu ili nesto slicno, nego na propagandni snimak. Samo sto mu je onaj ko mu je isti savetovao ili mu nije rekao da se ne majmunise budala.

Warning: NEXTA Telegram Channel Divides Protests in Minsk as Lukashenko Prepares for Crackdown

August 23, 2020, 1:00 pm EDT

By Mason Clark

Telegram channel NEXTA has disrupted the August 23 protest in Minsk. NEXTA unexpectedly changed plans for today’s march in Minsk’s Independence Square by directing protesters to instead move toward Belarusian army positions at Victory Park around 4:00 pm local time, a move that could be portrayed as intended to provoke a confrontation with the Belarusian military.[1] Representatives of opposition presidential candidate Svetlana Tikanouskaya’s Coordination Council arrived and asked protesters to move away from security forces, defusing the situation. As the crowd was beginning to draw back at 5:50 pm local time, NEXTA issued new instructions directing protesters to march on Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko’s palace, approximately one mile northwest of Victory Park.[2] Thousands of protesters began moving up the road toward the palace. The Belarusian military quickly began assembling defensive positions in front of the palace.[3] After 30 minutes, as protesters were nearing the palace, NEXTA issued new instructions asking protesters to disperse and return to Independence Square, the original stated focus of the Sunday protests.[4] NEXTA claimed Lukashenko is currently in the Presidential Palace and planning an evacuation.[5] Protesters remain in place around the Presidential palace.[6]

Lukashenko is likely preparing for a crackdown on protesters. Lukashenko’s press office released footage of Lukashenko arriving at the Presidential Palace via helicopter and emerging in a bullet proof vest and carrying a rifle.[7] Belarusian riot police are taking up positions around Independence Square.[8] Belarusian military units remain in place both in front of the Presidential Palace and in front of Victory Park. Lukashenko is likely framing himself as a strongman in preparation for a crackdown.

As of 7:30 pm local time, protesters are now divided and the original plan for the Sunday rally – a key policy statement by Tikanouskaya’s Coordination Council – has been disrupted. Protesters are now spread out across much of northern Minsk, instead of the original NEXTA plan of concentrating in Independence Square. Representatives of Tikanouskaya’s Coordination Council began making statements in front of Independence Square calling for continued protests and for Lukashenko to step down.[9] This was likely an ad hoc decision to attempt to refocus on the protests after NEXTA divided them by directing protesters to move toward security forces. The net effect of NEXTA’s instructions will have been to thin out a massive crowd that Belarusian security forces will likely be able to disperse and crush if Lukashenko so chooses.

NEXTA is overtly dividing the protest movement and weakening Tikanouskaya’s Coordination Council. NEXTA changed plans for the Sunday march with no notice, despite previously promoting the protest as a stationary demonstration in Independence Square. NEXTA’s action was not prompted by security concerns, as security forces had made no attempt to prevent the crowd from gathering in Independence Square or to disrupt or disperse once it had gathered there. NEXTA has increasingly asserted its control over the Belarusian protest movement in direct competition with Svetlana Tikanouskaya and her Coordination Council.

NEXTA has demonstrated the capability to organize and direct protests. NEXTA amplifies nationwide protests and tactically directs the physical movement of protesters in Minsk. NEXTA first issued tactical instructions to an ongoing protest on August 17, when it directed protesters toward a Belarusian detention facility without further instructions.[10] NEXTA demonstrated increasingly precise and timely control on August 23, issuing several directions to protesters to move away from previously planned demonstrations in Independence Square, then march toward two separate concentrations of Belarusian security forces, and finally to go back to Independence Square. On both August 17 and August 23, NEXTA disrupted the plans of Tikanouskaya’s key representatives in Minsk, Maria Kolesnikova and Olga Kovalkova, forcing them to follow NEXTA’s lead in efforts to prevent confrontations with security forces.

NEXTA’s actions reinforce elements of the Kremlin’s information operation in Belarus intentionally or unintentionally. NEXTA has clearly demonstrated its ability to direct protests several times during the day, to choose and revise protesters destinations, and to disrupt Tikanouskaya’s plans. Several of its decisions – including diminishing the influence of the Coordination Council, directing protesters toward a World War II memorial, potentially provoking confrontations, and militarizing the rhetoric of the protests – advance the Kremlin’s information operation in Belarus.

ISW is monitoring the situation and will provide further updates.

Telegram channel NEXTA