Korona i pare

The Business of Fashion and McKinsey & Company have released a new update examining the effects of Covid-19 on the $2.5 trillion fashion industry. The findings, as one would expect, make for seriously grim reading, with millions of jobs put at risk.
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Store closures due to quarantine measures are already having disastrous consequences. If stores remain closed for two months, the report suggests that 80 percent of publicly listed fashion companies in Europe and North America will find themselves in financial distress. It doesn’t window dress what that might entail, stating: “Combined with the McKinsey Global Fashion Index (MGFI) analysis, which found that 56 percent of global fashion companies were not earning their cost of capital in 2018, we expect a large number of global fashion companies to go bankrupt in the next 12 to 18 months.”

31% Can’t Pay the Rent: ‘It’s Only Going to Get Worse’

By Conor Dougherty
April 8, 2020

First it was the waitress whose restaurant closed. Then the waiter, the bartender, the substitute teacher, the hairdresser, the tattoo artist and the Walgreens manager.

One after the other, the tenants called and emailed their landlord, Bruce Brunner, to say they were out of work and the rent was going to be late. A week after the bill was due, some two dozen of Mr. Brunner’s 130 tenants had lost their jobs or had their hours reduced. He’s working out payment plans and using security deposits as a stopgap while directing tenants to the emerging patchwork of local, state and federal assistance programs.

“Six weeks ago, you could name your price and you’d have multiple people applying,” said Mr. Brunner, who lives in Minneapolis, where he owns and manages 20 duplexes and triplexes across the city. “Now you’re deferring and working out payment plans, and it’s only going to get worse.”
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The National Multifamily Housing Council, a trade group for big apartment owners and developers, compiled data tracking rent payments across some 13.4 million units nationwide. It showed that through the first five days of April, 31 percent of tenants had so far failed to pay their rent, compared with 18 percent in the same period a year ago.
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Vilmos Tehenészfiú wrote:@Bendeguz:

1. Umesto restriktivne politike koju je mislim Mor predložio (daj 150 hiljada nečega pa budi lekar u Nemačkoj), jednostavnije je školovati manje lekara koji svi ostaju ovde

2. Naravno da školovanje 600 lekara ne košta 3x više nego 200, ali fakultet (ili Univerzitet, ne znam kako se pare rasporedjuju) dobija novac od studenata koji nisu na budzetu nego sami plaćaju. 200 na budzetu i nula samofinansirajućih nije isto kao 200 na budzetu i 400 samofinansirajućih. Za malu deltu u troškovima faks dobija veliku deltu u prihodima. Drzavni faks ne treba da ima profit kao zvezdu vodilju.

3. Ne znam šta da ti kažem za ovo o neostvarenim lekarima koji postanu frustrirani automehaničari. Mislim, pun je grad ljudi koji su pali prijemni na FDU i postali pravnici, ekonomisti pa bogami i taksisti, pa ipak život nekako ide dalje bez njih u Senkama nad Balkanom.

4. Nikad nisam rekao da treba sledećih 30 godina upisivati po 200 studenata medicine. Teraš tako dok ne zaposliš sve sa biroa i sve volontere koji godinama rade za dz čekajući priliku. Onda napraviš presek da li je 200 dovoljno ili nije i teraš dalje.

Coronavirus: Five ways the outbreak is hitting global food industry
57 minutes ago

As the world's population was plunged into lockdown, our social media feeds became filled with stories of shortages at local supermarkets.

But with many restaurants and other areas of the hospitality industry effectively shut for business, food producers are warning they actually have too much stock which will now go to waste.

These are some of the ways the coronavirus pandemic is impacting the supply chain of food around the world.

1. Milk down the drain
With coffee shops closed completely in some countries, oversupply of milk is emerging as a real side-effect of the pandemic.

Dairy Farmers of America, the country's biggest dairy co-operative, is estimating that farmers are having to dump 3.7 million gallons (14 million litres) of milk every single day because of disrupted supply routes.

This issue is not only being seen in the US, with dairy farmers in the UK asking for government help because of their own surplus problems. Peter Alvis, chair of the Royal Association of British Dairy Farmers, says about five million litres per week are at risk.

He warned farmers receiving reduced value for their output or having to dump their excess are faced with severe economic repercussions amid already tight margins.

2. Crops go to waste
Closures are impacting all areas of agriculture. Some producers have tried to pivot to supplying ordinary shoppers, but changed market demand and excess stock remains a problem across the sector.

The New York Times, which interviewed some US producers, cited an example of one chicken processor having to smash 750,000 unhatched eggs every single week. They also spoke to an onion farmer who was having to let most of his harvest decompose, unable to re-distribute his onions in high enough qualities and without the facilities to store them.

In India, tea planters are warning that lockdown measures have already caused the first wave of their precious Darjeeling crop to go to waste and there are fears for the second.

3. Not enough workers
On top of oversupply and the difficulty in pivoting toward retail consumers, farmers in a lot of places are also encountering problems because of staffing shortages.

Self-isolation and social distancing guidelines are reportedly slowing picking efforts in places, and national lockdowns are disrupting the usual international flow of labour across the industry.

Last week Germany made an exception to its country's lockdown to allow thousands of Romanian and Polish workers to fly in to help with the spring harvest, especially with picking strawberries and asparagus.

There has also been a 'Feed the Nation' campaign launched in the UK to encourage domestic workers to plug any labour gaps to avoid food waste.

4. Changing our shopping habits
The pandemic has led to some changes in what we are trying to buy. For example, the UK has seen demand for flour soar in recent weeks as people stuck at home increasingly turn to home-baking.

According to new data, cited by BFMTV, French shoppers have increasingly been buying more organic food since coronavirus fears took hold of the country.

This could be because they are shopping at smaller, local stores - experts say - or because people want to eat more healthy and local food during the outbreak.

The revelation comes as France's minister for agriculture called on local officials to promote the re-opening of food markets across the country.

They were previously ordered shut over safety concerns, but have been gradually returning with guarantees that social distancing rules are in place.

5. Stock is sitting unused
Take UK pub closures for example. Much of the industry's current supply of lager and ale could now go to waste under government rules which mean they could be closed for the foreseeable future.

Some beers have a best-before date of just weeks - which means thousands of unused barrels in pub basements could be undrinkable by the time the lockdown is lifted.

People in the industry warn this could mean large financial losses for businesses.

Some parts of the food industry are benefiting from our changing consumption habits.

US sales of orange juice, which had been on a gradual decline, are said to be up 38% on last year's figures.

The so-called "futures" price of orange juice has soared in recent weeks. "The Covid-19 outbreaks are hitting both the supply and demand for orange juice," Stephen Innes, chief global market strategist at broker AxiCorp said last month.

"The immune-boosting properties are the demand-side attraction while there are simply not enough tanker spaces, with airlines not flying, to bring the product to markets."

The demand is good news for orange growers, especially in Florida and Brazil - who supply big brands like Tropicana.

Under the assumption that the pandemic and required containment peaks in the second quarter for most countries in the world, and recedes in the second half of this year, in the April World Economic Outlook we project global growth in 2020 to fall to -3 percent. This is a downgrade of 6.3 percentage points from January 2020, a major revision over a very short period. This makes the Great Lockdown the worst recession since the Great Depression, and far worse than the Global Financial Crisis.

Assuming the pandemic fades in the second half of 2020 and that policy actions taken around the world are effective in preventing widespread firm bankruptcies, extended job losses, and system-wide financial strains, we project global growth in 2021 to rebound to 5.8 percent.

This recovery in 2021 is only partial as the level of economic activity is projected to remain below the level we had projected for 2021, before the virus hit. The cumulative loss to global GDP over 2020 and 2021 from the pandemic crisis could be around 9 trillion dollars, greater than the economies of Japan and Germany, combined.

For the first time since the Great Depression both advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies are in recession. For this year, growth in advanced economies is projected at -6.1 percent. Emerging market and developing economies with normal growth levels well above advanced economies are also projected to have negative growth rates of -1.0 percent in 2020, and -2.2 percent if you exclude China. Income per capita is projected to shrink for over 170 countries. Both advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies are expected to partially recover in 2021.

In its closely observed monthly oil-market report, the IEA projected that demand for crude would drop in April by 29 million barrels a day to levels not seen in a quarter of a century. That would equate to roughly 29% of the world’s 100-million-barrel daily oil-demand figure from 2019.

Oil prices extended daily losses after the report was released. Brent crude, the global benchmark, was down 3.5% at $28.57 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. bellwether, was 2.2% lower at $19.66 a barrel, taking its year-to-date decline to 68%.

“The global economy is under pressure in ways not seen since the Great Depression…Businesses are failing and unemployment is surging,” the IEA said, adding that confinement measures have meant “activity in the transportation sector has fallen dramatically almost everywhere.”

“When we look back at 2020, we may see it was the worst year in the history of oil markets and the second quarter may have been the worst of the lot,” said Fatih Birol, the IEA’s executive director. “In that quarter, April may have been the worst month. It may go down as ‘Black April’ in the history of the oil industry.”

The agency said it expects a 4.8% fall in global economic growth this year.

The report comes days after the U.S., the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and others including Russia agreed to make historic output cuts aimed at mitigating the hit to global demand from the effects of the pandemic. The IEA forecasts that the agreement will contribute to a record 12-million-barrel-a-day drop in global oil supply in May.

Still, oil prices have fallen since the announcement of the deal, with billions of people remaining under lockdown for an indeterminate period.

“There is no feasible agreement that could cut supply by enough to offset such near-term demand losses,” the IEA said. Even after April, the Paris-based organization expects demand to be 26 million and 15 million barrels a day lower in May and June than a year earlier.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-demand-projected-to-fall-by-record-amount-11586940434?mod=hp_lead_pos4

The LA Times is reporting that Los Angeles mayor Eric Garcetti told high-level staff from several departments that big gatherings, such as sports and concerts, might not be approved until 2021. https://t.co/S5FyIHBTre

— LindseyThiry (@LindseyThiry) April 15, 2020

Talason wrote:može koliko hoćeš, pun ali

Marius Lăcătuș wrote:

Talason wrote:može koliko hoćeš, pun ali

jel stižu paketi u srbiju?

bila je priča da pošta-carina neće da hendluje dok ne prođe

mada je u kini već prošla, zar ne?

i ako je paket sa npr 100 maski hoće ga konfiskovati?

Talason wrote:
ne znam, poručio sam nekoliko različitih stvari, videću