a future to believe in

KinderLad wrote:

Djamolidine Abdoujaparov wrote:

da neće da odgovori jer je ne zanimaju hipotetički scenariji zato što je sasvim posvećena tome da Berni postane kandidat, što će se i desiti.

glasacima na prajmarijima je apsolutno najvaznije da ode tramp. nju vide kao nekoga ko je cvrsto u Bernijevom kampu. Kolebanje da li je odlazak Trampa vrhovni cilj bi bilo lose ne samo za nju, nego i za Bernija.

On Tuesday night, not a single state saw an increase in young voters’ share of the electorate, according to exit polls conducted by Edison Research and sponsored by several of the television networks.

It’s really hard to overstate how bad this is for Sanders. It’s not just that his campaign relies on these voters, although it does. It’s that a core driving philosophy of his campaign is that he will inspire a political revolution, one led, in particular, by a surge in young voters. That’s how he has envisioned defeating Trump in November. If that’s not happening, then how is the Sanders campaign a movement at all?

Political analyst Dave Wasserman put it in blunt terms on Tuesday: “Sanders’s pledge to bring new voters into his movement seems fairly empty in the results we’re seeing so far. His coalition has shrunk since 2016, not grown. That’s not to say it’s all bad. On Tuesday, Sanders did win in Vermont, Colorado, and Utah, and, as of Wednesday morning, he has a significant lead in California. He has made inroads with Latin voters, who fondly call Sanders “Tío Bernie.”

But just winning a few states isn’t enough here. Sanders has promised that his campaign would bring all sorts of new voters into the Democratic Party. And so far it seems to be struggling to do so.

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/2020-democratic-primary-turnout-problems-960784/
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Let’s start with the Republican Party. Voters have mobilized in huge numbers even though Trump is essentially running uncontested. (The Nevada and South Carolina Republican parties canceled their elections entirely.) In New Hampshire, Trump received 129,696 votes, which is more than double what Obama got in 2012 and George W. Bush in 2004.

Barry Burden, a political scientist at the University of Wisconsin who studies voter turnout, says Trump’s huge levels of support defy historical trends about sitting presidents who run for reelection. “A sitting incumbent running for reelection — that shouldn’t stimulate much interest,” Burden says. “It all runs a little contrary to what I think we would’ve expected.”

For the Democrats, the story is less rosy. Historic turnout in the 2018 midterm elections and several special elections since Trump took office has not yet translated into similar outpourings of voter energy in the first four primaries and caucuses. Political scientists and voting experts tell Rolling Stone that the turnout so far is good but not great. In several states more people voted, or a higher share of the voting-eligible population voted, than did four years ago. But the numbers so far have not met the high-water mark of the 2008 campaign.
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McDonald says there could be several explanations for why the early 2020 contests haven’t hit 2008 turnout levels despite the high stakes of the election. “This is a choice between Democratic candidates, and so people who might be enthused or excited to vote against Trump are largely sitting on the sidelines at the moment,” he says. “They don’t really care who the Democratic nominee is going to be. It’s going to be a Democrat and that’s enough for them.”

One reason for that, he says, is that the 2020 Democratic primary doesn’t have the same history-making feel to it. Twelve years ago, Democrats had a clear choice between nominating the first African American candidate or the first woman candidate. The size of the field could also have a dampening effect as Democrats struggle to decide which candidate to support. “The historic nature isn’t there,” McDonald says.
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But more than any other Democrat, Bernie Sanders has staked his candidacy on his ability to galvanize Democratic voters and convince millions of nonvoters to cast their ballots for him.

The early evidence does not support Sanders’ theory of the case. There has not been a sizable influx of new voters, though the youth vote — which smashed the record for midterm turnout in 2018 — surpassed 2008 levels in Iowa and tracked closely with 2016 levels in New Hampshire, Nevada, or South Carolina. “What we are seeing is that despite complicated caucus rules, new residency requirements in New Hampshire, and strict voter ID in South Carolina, the trends are continuing from the midterms — young people are making there voices heard in this primary process in greater numbers than they have before,” says Carolyn DeWitt, president of Rock the Vote. “After being on the frontlines of the climate marches, student walk outs, March for Our Lives and more the presidential candidates are investing unprecedented levels winning over the support of young voters and they are responding in kind by showing up.”

“That’s a strong contrast with Obama’s turnout in 2008 where there was a huge swell of new voters who came out,” says Barry Burden, the University of Wisconsin political scientist. “The number of young voters is not up as a share of Democratic voters. If they want to see a really high turnout in November, they’re gonna need to turn out young voters in high numbers. At least in the primaries and caucuses, there hasn’t been so much of that.”
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In the end, Burden says, most Democrats are going to want to remove Trump so badly that they will be very energized in the election even if they’re not enthusiastic about the nominee. “But it’s these little margins in the swing states that make the difference,” he says. “For Democrats to win back Michigan or North Carolina or Arizona, slightly lower levels of turnout among some key groups can be consequential.”

Here’s the bottom line: The revolution has yet to arrive. No candidate has rebuilt the coalition that delivered Obama the nomination in 2008. That doesn’t mean it won’t happen — anger at this president and fear of another four years of Trump will undoubtedly motivate huge numbers of Democrats in November who aren’t tuned into the primary.

And yet. Those are potential Democratic voters. Trump is turning people out in historic numbers right now. Democrats need to act — fast.

At his rally in Detroit, Bernie Sanders just read the crowd a 1974 quote from Joe Biden about Roe v Wade: "I don’t like the Supreme Court decision on abortion. I think it went too far. I don’t think that a woman has the sole right to say what should happen to her body."

— Ruby Cramer (@rubycramer) March 7, 2020

Gargantua wrote:

At his rally in Detroit, Bernie Sanders just read the crowd a 1974 quote from Joe Biden about Roe v Wade: "I don’t like the Supreme Court decision on abortion. I think it went too far. I don’t think that a woman has the sole right to say what should happen to her body."

— Ruby Cramer (@rubycramer) March 7, 2020

DETROIT, MI -- Democratic presidential hopeful Bernie Sanders blamed “disastrous unfettered free trade policies” for causing the United States to transition from a “General Motors economy” to a “Wal-Mart economy,” citing the global retail chain’s status as the country’s top employer.

The Vermont senator hosted a conversation with Michigan union auto workers on the negative impact past trade deals have had on the economy before a Friday rally in Detroit. Sanders condemned Democratic primary rival and former Vice President Joe Biden for his role in supporting trade deals like the North American Free Trade Agreement and allowing good-paying jobs to leave Michigan communities.

“What these trade deals have done is decimate the working class of this country," Sanders said. “It’s not just the loss of jobs, it’s wages going down, it’s a race to the bottom ... I have done my best to oppose these disastrous trade deals. Joe Biden, on the other hand, has totally supported them."

Biden was among Democrats who voted for NAFTA as a U.S. senator and was also an advocate for the Obama-era Trans-Pacific Partnership. Sanders and President Donald Trump campaigned in 2016 on renegotiating trade deals to benefit blue-collar workers.

The Michigan-centered event comes as Sanders prepares for a primary election bout against Biden next Tuesday, March 10.

Sanders has worked to draw a distinction between himself and Biden as states with large numbers of workers in industrial and manufacturing industries begin to vote. Sanders visited United Auto Workers on the picket line outside last year during a month-long strike against General Motors.

Sanders convened a group of Michiganders who worked at General Motors factories in Flint and Saginaw. Both cities have seen a loss of manufacturing jobs in the last several decades.

Manufacturing jobs used to be the “gold standard” for Americans, Sanders said, but free trade agreements have allowed corporations to move factories across the border to take advantage of cheaper labor.

Sanders also criticized “right to work” legislation passed in states like Michigan, which prohibits employers from requiring union membership or payment of dues as a condition of employment.

“All of the new income and wealth are going to the people on top,” Sanders said. “Clearly what we need to do is create an economy that works for all of us, not just the CEOs of large corporations.”

Both candidates have touted their support among labor unions and blue-collar workers as evidence that they can take on President Donald Trump in the general election. Trump narrowly flipped Michigan and other formerly Democratic-leaning Midwest states in part by campaigning on promises to rewrite NAFTA.

Trump’s United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement gathered bipartisan support in Michigan and passed earlier this year to the applause of Republicans and Democrats seeking a modernized replacement to NAFTA.

Sanders stood alone during the January Democratic debate by declaring he would not support the USMCA, and later voted against it in the Senate. Sanders said he deal lacks important environmental protections, though he said it is an improvement over NAFTA.

The Sanders campaign released a statement criticizing Biden’s work to pass NAFTA after Trump launched a similar line of attack at a Fox News town hall this week. Trump said Biden showed poor judgment in “pushing” the trade deal as a U.S. senator.

“Joe Biden made a deal: NAFTA,” Trump said Thursday. “He approved it. He was pushing it. It’s the worst trade deal ever made. We’re terminating NAFTA. We have the USMCA.”

Bernie 2020 campaign manager Faiz Shakir said Trump will exploit Biden’s vulnerability on trade to win battleground states that could swing the general election. Shakir argued Sanders’ stance on NAFTA makes him a stronger candidate to face Trump in November.

Sanders and Biden are essentially the last candidates standing after the Democratic Party assembled a large and historically diverse field of competitors. Both campaigns are making a large push to sway voters in Michigan in the final days of the election, with a flurry of rallies and smaller events planned throughout the weekend.

The race has become more competitive after the departure of several other candidates this week. Elizabeth Warren has not put her support behind either of the remaining candidates, but Amy Klobuchar, Pete Buttigieg and Mike Bloomberg coalesced around Biden.

Biden appears to be riding a surge of momentum after gathering more delegates than Sanders on Super Tuesday earlier this week. Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and several other high-profile Democrats put their support behind Biden in the final days of the primary.

U.S. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, D-Hawaii, is still running and visited Detroit this week, but is far behind the other two candidates in terms of delegates.

David Dulio, head of the political science department of Oakland University, said it’s not clear that Sanders has an advantage against Trump on trade. Both politicians have railed against the negative impact of NAFTA, but the replacement agreement is Trump’s signature policy achievement.

“I don’t know where Sanders goes with that,” Dulio said. “I mean if he comes in to rail against trade agreements, Trump can follow up with a tweet that says, ‘Sorry Bernie I already did that.’”

https://www.mlive.com/public-interest/2020/03/bernie-sanders-slams-joe-biden-on-trade-before-michigan-rally-in-detroit.html

Some part of Sanders seems to hold out hope that something is left over in the DNA of the Democratic Party from those F.D.R. days, something that can be saved and restored. He seems to have a nostalgic fondness for it, as he seems to for Biden himself.

But this version of the Democratic Party that now has Biden as its face wants to bury him. They’ve smeared him as a racist, sexist dupe for Putin, an amateur and back-bencher who doesn’t understand power and can’t “get things done.”

By getting as far as he has, and raising as much money as he has, Sanders has already demolished half of that argument. To finish the job, he has to show he understands the difference between doing well and winning, against an opponent who pathetically, insultingly beatable. For all of the institutional obstacles before him, despite the wall of media sycophants and the waterfall of fresh Wall Street money against him, Bernie should be offended to be losing to the likes of Joe Biden. But he’s running out of time to get angry.