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    Virus

    rumbeando

    Posts : 13817
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    Post by rumbeando Fri Mar 06, 2020 3:22 pm

    Broj registrovanih slučajeva na milion stanovnika (za zemlje sa preko 50 registrovanih slučajeva):


    1 J. Koreja 127,3
    2 Italija 64,1
    3 Kina 57,5
    4 Iran 57,1
    5 Bahrein 35,7
    6 Singapur 22,8
    7 Norveška 19,6
    8 Švajcarska 16,0
    9 Hongkong 14,1
    10 Kuvajt 13,2
    11 Švedska 9,8
    12 Belgija 9,5
    13 Španija 7,6
    14 Holandija 7,4
    15 Nemačka 6,9
    16 Francuska 6,3
    17 Japan 3,0
    18 Malezija 2,5
    19 Australija 2,3
    20 V. Britanija 1,7
    21 SAD 0,7


    Broj umrlih na milion stanovnika (za zemlje sa preko 50 registrovanih slučajeva i umrlima):

    1 Italija 2,46
    2 Kina 2,17
    3 Iran 1,49
    4 J. Koreja 0,81
    5 Hongkong 0,27
    6 Švajcarska 0,12
    7 Španija 0,11
    8 Francuska 0,10
    9 Australija 0,08
    10 Holandija 0,06
    11 Japan 0,05
    12 SAD 0,04
    13 V. Britanija 0,02
     

    Izvor podataka o obolelima i umlima: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
    Izvor podataka o broju stanovnika država: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_dependencies_by_population
    Cowboy

    Posts : 1043
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    Post by Cowboy Fri Mar 06, 2020 3:28 pm

    Kondo wrote:
    Cowboy wrote:Ma moze da slabi ali moze i da mutira u nesto gore. Mene vise zanima vremenski okvir u kojem se ovo razvija i kasnije gasi. Postoji li tu neki patern ili je bilo slucajeva da ovakva sranja traju godinama (srednji vek?)


    brate kravaru mojne da me razočaravaš u vako dramatičnom trenutku, ko će nam dati odgovore na sva pitanja ako ne ti. u suprotnom šutu u bulju ka tamo.

    Dobro de popravicu se od sada samo pravi odgovori na pitanja
    Летећи Полип

    Posts : 11137
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    Age : 35
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    Post by Летећи Полип Fri Mar 06, 2020 3:30 pm

    Papa Lazarou wrote:Ma bre čitam i ne verujem koja je ovo građanska i higijenska svest Virus - Page 30 3137070404 Uradi tačno ono što treba, odmah izoluje porodicu i potpuno prekine vektor zaraze.


    K.&K.  Virus - Page 30 359476144


    _____
    Sve čega ima na filmu, rekao sam, ima i na Zlatiboru.


    ~~~~~

    Ne dajte da vas prevare! Sačuvajte svoje pojene!
    Anonymous
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    Post by Guest Fri Mar 06, 2020 3:33 pm

    Anonymous
    Guest

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    Post by Guest Fri Mar 06, 2020 3:37 pm

    Pala je i slobodarska Slovačka. Ko je ostao, samo Crna Gora, Kosovo i Albanija?
    rumbeando

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    Post by rumbeando Fri Mar 06, 2020 3:42 pm

    I još Bugarska, Moldavija, Malta, Kipar i Turska od kojih je barem Turska vrlo upitna s obzirom na ono što je pisao Redoran na PPP-u.
    rumbeando

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    Post by rumbeando Fri Mar 06, 2020 4:02 pm

    Odnos ukupno registrovanog broja obolelih 5.3. u odnosu na ukupno registrovani broj obolelih nedelju dana ranije (27.2) za izabrane zemlje:

    Iran 14,34
    Francuska 11,13
    Španija 10,59
    Nemačka 7,84
    Italija 5,96
    SAD 3,61
    J. Koreja 3,27
    Japan 1,68
    Singapur 1,22

    Dakle, u Francuskoj i Španiji registrovani broj obolelih se više nego udesetostručio za nedelju dana, u Nemačkoj se približno uosmostručio, dok se u Italiji približno ušestostručio.

    Izvor za sve zemlje osim Francuske: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Z7VQ5xlf3BaTx_LBBblsW4hLoGYWnZyog3jqsS9Dbgc/htmlview?sle=true#
    Izvor za Francusku pošto spreadsheet nije ažuriran u tom delu: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_in_France
    Anonymous
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    Post by Guest Fri Mar 06, 2020 4:13 pm

    Gargantua wrote:
    ...

    Korona virus je sasvim prosto – i gotovo isključivo – moralna panika, u najdoslovnijem smislu. Ljudska tela, umovi, društva, sistemi značenja, norme i moral evoluirali su uporedo sa patogenima. Danas ne znamo ko je koga vukao u tom mračnom scenariju.

    Da bismo shvatili tu čudnu dinamiku, treba da razmislimo o očiglednoj nesposobnosti pripadnika ljudske vrste da izvedu statistički korektne zaključke o stvarnom riziku u epidemiji panike koju je izazvao covid-19. Ljudska sklonost prema ignorisanju osnovne verovatnoće i gutanju zastrašujućih informacija dobro je dokumentovana. „Predubeđenje negativnosti“ spada u najmoćnije unapred programirane heurističke mehanizme: svaka informacija koja sadrži nagoveštaj potencijalne opasnosti i pretnje odmah će privući našu pažnju, lako ćemo je zapamtiti i još lakše preneti. Rečeno žargonom kulturnih epidemiologa, nagoveštaj opasnosti „lako se uči, pamti i prenosi drugima“, što znači da ima ogroman potencijal za izazivanje epidemije ideja. Ta osobina ima jasnu evolutivnu prednost: bolje je da opasnost precenimo nego da je potcenimo. U većini slučajeva takve trenutne asocijacije dobro funkcionišu. Znaci koji ukazuju na prisustvo patogena obično automatski izazivaju gađenje i tako nam pomažu da izbegnemo opasnost. S vremenom smo razvili i mogućnost da trenutno reagujemo na čitav niz vizuelnih i auditivnih znakova koji prenose informaciju o visokoj verovatnoći patogenog prisustva. Zato se grozimo prisustva miševa, pacova ili buba, kao i zvuka šmrkanja.
    ...

    https://pescanik.net/korona-virus-u-nasoj-glavi/

    jel ja nešto propuštam ili je ovo vrlo, vrlo glupo. na koju je foru "korona virus... moralna panika"? mislim, virus je virus, a panika, ako je ima, uopšte ne kapiram šta je čini moralnom panikom. plašimo se da će virus da nam pokvari omladinu?

    pa onda ovo:

    Zapitajte se da li biste uzeli lek koji ste kupili bez recepta kada biste bili 98 odsto sigurni da on deluje? Da li biste se usudili da stavite celu svoju ušteđevinu na jedan broj ruleta ako bi verovatnoća da ćete je izgubiti bila 98 odsto?

    Korona virus ne zahteva nimalo više mozganja. Kao generički pripadnik ljudske vrste imate otprilike iste izglede da umrete od korona virusa kao da dobijete zgoditak u pomenutom kockarskom scenariju. Reč je o ukupnim stopama, što znači: ako vaše zdravstveno stanje nije vrlo loše, ako niste vrlo stari ili sasvim malo dete, verovatnoća da će vas virus ubiti mnogo je manja, to jest blizu nule.

    Zašto onda tako mnogo zemalja uvodi karantin, zatvara granice, škole i fudbalske stadione zbog nečega što je manje verovatno nego da će se neko od nas udaviti tokom ove godine ili da će ga za života pogoditi grom? Zašto berza pada i zašto su masovne elektronske poruke škola i kancelarija, novinski naslovi, društveni mediji i privatni razgovori preplavljeni pričama o nečemu što je samo nova vrsta blagog do umerenog gripa?

    jel znate kolika je verovatnoća da vas udari grom? zašto onda ljudi prave gromobrane i izbegavaju gole planinske pašnjake u vreme oluje?!?!?! moralna panika!
    bemty

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    Post by bemty Fri Mar 06, 2020 4:29 pm

    najbolji deo je - ja sam mlad i zdrav a sigurno i vi, znaci boli nas kurac! kao da mladi i zdravi nemaju roditelje, babe i dede, bolesne ljude do kojih im je stalo. to se valjda racuna u potrosnu robu, sta li.


    _____
    Warning: may contain irony.
    Anonymous
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    Post by Guest Fri Mar 06, 2020 4:31 pm

    Kao i sasvim mala deca.
    bemty

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    Post by bemty Fri Mar 06, 2020 4:32 pm

    zato sto ljudski mozak ne ume da racuna verovatnocu


    _____
    Warning: may contain irony.
    паће

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    Post by паће Fri Mar 06, 2020 4:34 pm

    Djamolidine Abdoujaparov wrote:
    jel znate kolika je verovatnoća da vas udari grom? zašto onda ljudi prave gromobrane i izbegavaju gole planinske pašnjake u vreme oluje?!?!?! moralna panika!

    Колико пута је берза затварана због постављања громобрана? Колико пута је утакмица отказана због заобилажења пашњака?

    Тј јесте, један део је до хајпа и продаје рекламног простора медија. Јер још увек је укупан број жртава мањи од оног што ураде амерички лекари за 1 радни дан. Али овде постоји осећај да се може урадити нешто, и диже се галама на оне који то могу да ураде али не би да буду на штети па одуговлаче и изврдавају и праве се да то није ништа и да их се не тиче.


    _____
       commented, fermented, demented, mementoed, cemented, lamented.
       анархеологистика: оно кад не знаш где си га затурио, и кад.
    rumbeando

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    Post by rumbeando Fri Mar 06, 2020 4:34 pm

    Zašto onda tako mnogo zemalja uvodi karantin, zatvara granice, škole i fudbalske stadione zbog nečega što je manje verovatno nego da će se neko od nas udaviti tokom ove godine ili da će ga za života pogoditi grom? Zašto berza pada i zašto su masovne elektronske poruke škola i kancelarija, novinski naslovi, društveni mediji i privatni razgovori preplavljeni pričama o nečemu što je samo nova vrsta blagog do umerenog gripa?

    To je pisao neki apsolutni idiot koji ne razume osnovne stvari.

    Zato što ako ne uvedeš i pustiš da se virus širi eksponencijalno tj. geometrijskom progresijom, onda za par meseci više nemaš gde da primiš teške slučajeve kojih je 15-20% pa ti stopa smrtnosti ne bude 1 ili 2% već npr. 15%.


    Last edited by rumbeando on Fri Mar 06, 2020 4:35 pm; edited 1 time in total
    Anonymous
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    Post by Guest Fri Mar 06, 2020 4:34 pm

    Jako čudan tekst. Sve drugo na stranu, ali mi ne ide u glavu kako neko usred eksponencijalnog rasta broja obolelih može da kaže "verovatnoća za zarazu ti je tolika i tolika, dakle gotovo nikakva". Ok. A za mesec dana? Počinjem da mislim da je to simptom intenzivnog straha.


    Last edited by Papa Lazarou on Fri Mar 06, 2020 4:35 pm; edited 1 time in total
    bemty

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    Post by bemty Fri Mar 06, 2020 4:35 pm

    u isto vreme u guardianu, clanak sa naslovom why we need worst-case thinking to prevent pandemics


    _____
    Warning: may contain irony.
    Anonymous
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    Post by Guest Fri Mar 06, 2020 4:35 pm

    bemty wrote:najbolji deo je - ja sam mlad i zdrav a sigurno i vi, znaci boli nas kurac! kao da mladi i zdravi nemaju roditelje, babe i dede, bolesne ljude do kojih im je stalo. to se valjda racuna u potrosnu robu, sta li.

    Virus - Page 30 3579118792 nisam ni stigao dotle, ali eto to može da objasni zašto je u pitanju moralna panika. paničari su u fazonu won't somebody please think of the elderly?! naš autor:

    Virus - Page 30 Let-them-die

    Virus - Page 30 2304934895
    паће

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    Post by паће Fri Mar 06, 2020 4:46 pm

    Djamolidine Abdoujaparov wrote:
    bemty wrote:najbolji deo je - ja sam mlad i zdrav a sigurno i vi, znaci boli nas kurac! kao da mladi i zdravi nemaju roditelje, babe i dede, bolesne ljude do kojih im je stalo. to se valjda racuna u potrosnu robu, sta li.

    Virus - Page 30 3579118792 nisam ni stigao dotle, ali eto to može da objasni zašto je u pitanju moralna panika. paničari su u fazonu won't somebody please think of the elderly?! 

    Паничаре они које не чека наследство.

    Е, стварно, упознали смо мало поближе 1 породицу у тамоу, живели су у бољем крају, тамо где не посеку шуму пре градње и где школскибус ујутро има последње станице а поподне прве, да деца мање чекају, травњак вечито подшишан, прскалице аутоматске укопане, кућа огромна са фасадом од пола цигле (изнутра летве као и другде), лик неки правник а госпоја саветник у школи, син после завршио Емајти... ма оно рекао би човек да могу у џеп да нас стрпају и да не примете. Једва су чекали да деда баци кашику и да се изваде из буле.


    _____
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    Anonymous
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    Post by Guest Fri Mar 06, 2020 4:46 pm

    Šesnaestogodišnjak iz Vlasotinca, koji je pre nekoliko dana doputovao iz Italije, transportovan je uz sve neophodne mere bezbednosti u leskovačku Opštu bolnicu jer se sumnja da je oboleo od koronavirusa, ali to tek treba da potvrde analize beogradskog Instituta "Torlak".

    Kako je za Jugmediju rekao direktor Opšte bolnice Leskovac Nebojša Dimitrijević, on se trenutno nalazi u izolaciji na Infektivnom odeljenju.
    ---------
    Erős Pista

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    Post by Erős Pista Fri Mar 06, 2020 5:01 pm

    Ja sad ne vidim kako će bilo kakav spin uspeti da zaustavi paniku(tm). A ne vidim ni kako je moguće u ovakvim uslovima održati izbore.


    _____
    "Oni kroz mene gledaju u vas! Oni kroz njega gledaju u vas! Oni kroz vas gledaju u mene... i u sve nas."

    Dragoslav Bokan, Novi putevi oftalmologije
    паће

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    Post by паће Fri Mar 06, 2020 5:11 pm

    William Murderface wrote:Ja sad ne vidim kako će bilo kakav spin uspeti da zaustavi paniku(tm). A ne vidim ni kako je moguće u ovakvim uslovima održati izbore.

    Већ си видео. Победила је опција "гласаћемо слинави".


    _____
       commented, fermented, demented, mementoed, cemented, lamented.
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    Ferenc Puskás

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    Post by Ferenc Puskás Fri Mar 06, 2020 5:16 pm

    U Pragu se zarazio ljekar. Dok je shvatio primio 100 pacijenata. Sad ih love.


    _____
    Ha rendelkezésre áll a szükséges pénz, a vége általában jó.
    rumbeando

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    Post by rumbeando Fri Mar 06, 2020 5:17 pm

    16:24 Panika u privatnoj klinici: Lečili zaraženog koronavirusom

    Pacijent kojem je jutros potvrđen koronavirus pre karantina u subotičkoj opštoj bolnici, lečio se više od nedelju dana u privatnoj bolnici “Kuća zdravlja” u Subotici, gde se oporavljao od upale pluća, saznaje Nova.rs.
    https://nova.rs/drustvo/koronavirus-u-srbiji-najnovije-vesti/
    Летећи Полип

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    Post by Летећи Полип Fri Mar 06, 2020 5:19 pm

    dun dun duuuun


    _____
    Sve čega ima na filmu, rekao sam, ima i na Zlatiboru.


    ~~~~~

    Ne dajte da vas prevare! Sačuvajte svoje pojene!
    Anonymous
    Guest

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    Post by Guest Fri Mar 06, 2020 5:29 pm

    William Murderface wrote:Ja sad ne vidim kako će bilo kakav spin uspeti da zaustavi paniku(tm). A ne vidim ni kako je moguće u ovakvim uslovima održati izbore.

    Ma pomeriće izbore leks specijalisom, ako budu morali. Niko im neće prebaciti zbog toga, a isto tako mogu da nameste izbore i siluju demokratiju i pola godine kasnije.

    Polako izlaze iz polyanna faze, što zdušno pozdravljam.
    rumbeando

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    Post by rumbeando Fri Mar 06, 2020 5:36 pm

    Posted byu/Gtown_Gaming
    Verified user - Shanghai resident 
    5 hours ago

    What it's like in China 03.06

    Local Report: China


    It has been almost a month since I last posted an update of what it is like here in China. So much has changed between then and now - clearly the pressing and urgent matter is the spread of the virus around the globe and the rate of increases of cases in multiple countries.

    In Shanghai
    , the city is back to life this past week. It has slowly been coming back for the past 2 weeks or so, but this week is the first it has felt like daily activity is getting back to normal. Restaurants, stores, banks, offices - of which many had been closed for over a month are open once again. Traffic jams are back to a regular occurrence and many are walking the sidewalks where just a few weeks ago they were completely empty.

    Over the last week, Shanghai has had only two newly confirmed cases, one of which was detected during a mandatory quarantine period in a traveler who arrived from Iran.

    There is a lot of optimism that the worst is over, and hope that soon the city will be declared virus free. This is also the case in many other cities and provinces throughout China. Hubei province still suffers, but signs of improvement there are also encouraging.

    As the virus spreads globally, I want to highlight the containment and prevention measures China has implemented, why they have worked, and why I believe countries around the world need to implement similar measures starting now.

    In order for transmission to occur, the virus needs to come in contact with other humans. The first major measures China implemented were focused on social distancing and isolation. Areas where the virus was most prevalent were locked down, staring with Wuhan, expanding to Hubei province, and even to other cities with large pockets of the virus detected. In these lockdowns, people were not allowed to come into or leave these areas. Gatherings of people such as conventions, sporting events, movie theaters, gyms, etc. were immediately cancelled or closed. Offices and workplaces closed completely, the few restaurants that remained opened, only allowed take out food, no dining in. People were encouraged multiple times a day to stay home. The thing that amazed me as a westerner, was that everyone complied. The level of social distancing and isolation was extreme and necessary. Even today, as the city comes back to life this remains. Starbucks only allows one person per table so as to ensure people remain at a distance from one another.

    The second measures put into place were focused on community transmission prevention. Encouragement to wash and disinfect hands regularly was plastered everywhere and was mentioned all over the news. In order to be outside at all it was necessary to be wearing a mask, to enter buildings, restaurants grocery stores, you were required to wear a mask and given hand sanitizer before entering. Buses, taxis, subways, Didi (Chinese Uber), all required masks to be worn. Public transit, transit stations, public restrooms were disinfected multiple times a day. In the elevators, boxes of tissues were placed for people to take one and use it as a cover to push buttons. Confined spaces often smelled of cleaning solution. My own apartment building came to disinfect my apartment unit during the height of cases in Shanghai. Everyone still wears masks, everyone still immediately washes their hands when they return home or uses disinfectant before eating.

    Third major measures were focused on case discovery and treatment. Upon discovery of a confirmed case, quick and effective contact tracing measures were put into place. Public areas would take your name and phone number before allowing you to enter, in the event someone there later was determined positive, they could contact you and find you quickly. This moved digitally in QR code based systems, were you would scan various locations, buses, taxis, subways, etc. and be able to be contacted and located quickly. To enter any public area, your temperature is taken. Residential communities issued passes for healthy residents when they would leave their homes, and would only be allowed back in by returning their pass and being checked for temperature again. Anyone found to be symptomatic was promptly taken to fever clinics, normally used for quick check ups and prescriptions that had now become front line triage. At the fever clinic you will be tested and examined. If it you are a suspected case you will be put under mandatory quarantine, this could be at a designated facility or at your home, if you are not immediately suspected you are asked to self-quarantine, in either case your community (most are large apartment buildings or compounds of buildings) are informed of your status. This to let others know to be vigilant, and to ensure community helps with enforcement of quarantine and helps with providing supplies to those who are quarantined. If confirmed, usually within 24 hours of testing, patients are immediately transferred to one of two designated hospitals for COVID-19. Or the designated children's hospital for minors. (at least this is how it is in Shanghai). These measures are still in place today. It is almost impossible to leave your home without getting monitored by the entire community. If you show any signs of symptoms you will go in for testing and check up, and your close contacts will be identified very quickly and also monitored.

    Lastly, China implemented external controls to monitor and quarantine travelers both from other cities and provinces within China as well as from abroad.

    In summary

    Limit the potential exposure to the virus by keeping people away from each other

    For the virus that is out there, disinfect rigorously, kill as much of the virus that is out in the community as possible to lessen the chance healthy people will contact the virus in the community. This includes individual efforts and community based disinfection efforts.

    Aggressively find potential cases and their contacts. Increase the already strict isolation controls on people confirmed, suspected, and potential contacts of those suspected or confirmed. Have a quick system

    Limit movement of people to ensure clusters in one area don't become clusters in another area. Lockdown cities and communities, quarantine travelers.

    These measures have worked. The proof is here.
    As said previously, what amazes me as a westerner was the willingness and the desire of the people to take these actions and take them seriously. Full scale adoption and compliance from the people. Absolutely incredible. And this is what it takes.

    I hope the west can get it together. I hope they can take this seriously and act now. I hope the people will respond the way I have seen the Chinese people respond. China has also shown that early mistakes can be fixed if addressed and acted upon. Mistakes made now by countries recently impacted can still do what is necessary to stop the large scale spread.

    As always, happy to answer any questions.

    https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/febv3t/what_its_like_in_china_0306/

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