Tursko leto - strukture saraja

Erdogan apparently won only 60.1% of Turkish expat votes in #BiH but 63.6% in #Serbia.

U vezi nagle promjene kursa lire, koji je zabilježe posljednjih dana, predsjednik Erdogan je kazao:

¨Dolar nam ne može prepriječiti put. Svi koji imaju dolara, eura i zlata pod jastukom neka ih razmjene. Ovo je domaća, nacionalna borba. Ovo će biti i najbolji odgovor našeg naroda onima koji su nam otvorili ekonomski rat.¨
¨Neke zemlje zauzimaju stav protiv Turske tako što štite pučiste, teroriste. Negativnost koja je zadesila našu ekonomiju posljednjih dana je odraz istog stava¨, rekao je predsjednik Erdogan i dodao:
¨Spremni smo na sve neprijatnosti.¨
¨Nek se ne raduju oni koji spekuliraju na osnovu deviznog kursa, kamatnih stopa. I pored činjenice da nema nikakvih problema u makro-ekonomskim pokazateljima, proizvodnoj moći, zapošljavanju i bankarskom sistemu, Turska je suočena sa finansijskom nestabilnošću. Sigurno je da su uzroci svega ovoga drugačijeg karaktera. Nije moguće da popravimo odnose sa zemljama koje zauzimaju ovakav stav. Budite sigurni da će se kajati svi oni koji su, zbog sitnih računa, izgubili Tursku.¨
Istakavši da ni sa jednom zemljom ne posjeduje nikakav spor, predsjednik Erdogan je kazao:
¨Sa svim zemljama realizujemo saradnju sve dok su očuvani obostrani interesi. Kada dođe do nesuglasica to rješavamo dijalogom. No, ako pokušaju da Tursku satjeraju u tjesnac, onda se i mi mijenjamo.
Zar će se narod, koji se ne plaši tenkova, aviona, topova i metaka plašiti ovakvih stvari? Svi oni koji misle tako znači da nas uopšte nisu upoznali.¨
¨Zabilježili smo veliki napredak kada su u pitanju drugačije alternative, od Irana, Rusije pa sve do Kine¨, rekao je predsjednik Erdogan.

Tensions Between Turkey and U.S. Soar as Trump Orders New Sanctions

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has called on Turks to support the struggling lira by exchanging any foreign currency, saying that Turkey faces an economic war.CreditAndrew Urwin for The New York Times

By Carlotta Gall and Jack Ewing
Aug. 10, 2018


ISTANBUL — A worsening dispute between the United States and Turkey reverberated through the global economy on Friday, hastening a broad flight of money from emerging markets and sowing instability throughout the Middle East as relations between the NATO allies neared a breaking point.

The immediate crisis — accelerated by a hostile tweet from President Trump — flared over Turkey’s continued detention of an American pastor, Andrew Brunson, who was jailed 21 months ago in a widespread crackdown after a failed coup in Turkey.
But the outsize effect reflected deepening concerns over Turkey’s economic management by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who was re-elected in June with near-authoritarian powers. It also increased the risk that the problems in Turkey, which borders Iran, Iraq and Syria, could destabilize economies well beyond the region.
Turkey’s economy is only the 17th largest in the world, but its problems are worsening as Mr. Trump’s trade war is rattling global commerce, damaging longtime alliances and threatening economic growth worldwide.

There is also widespread fear among foreign investors that the populist, authoritarian government of Mr. Erdogan is pursuing irresponsible economic policies while undercutting the independence of the central bank. That, analysts fear, is preventing the country from taking the necessary steps to put the economy on a more stable footing.
Turkey’s currency, the lira, which traded at 4.7 to the dollar a month ago, weakened to 6.4 to the dollar on Friday — the first time ever that it took more than 6 lira to buy a dollar. The lira has lost more than 30 percent of its value this month — roughly half of it this week.

Seeming to sense vulnerability, Mr. Trump piled on pressure and announced additional economic sanctions — doubling tariffs on imported Turkish steel to 50 percent and on aluminum to 20 percent — after having already penalized two Turkish government ministers last week.
The move effectively priced Turkish steel out of the American market, which accounts for 13 percent of Turkey’s steel exports.

“Our relations with Turkey are not good at this time!” Mr. Trump wrote.

The deepening standoff raised questions of whether the two strong-willed leaders were risking even broader chaos as they vied for the upper hand in a widening diplomatic dispute largely focused on individual personalities.
An evangelical preacher, Mr. Brunson, who has lived in Turkey for 23 years, is one of about 20 Americans, including a NASA scientist and chemistry professor from Pennsylvania, who have been swept up in Mr. Erdogan’s crackdown since the failed coup two years ago.
Mr. Erdogan says the coup was orchestrated from the United States, and specifically by a Muslim cleric, Fethullah Gulen, from his self-imposed exile in Pennsylvania. Turkish authorities have demanded that he be extradited, something American officials have dismissed, and the detained Americans are widely seen as bargaining chips.

Mr. Erdogan has shown no sign of backing down. He sounded defiant in two speeches to supporters on Friday, railing against foreign powers that he accused of orchestrating Turkey’s economic crisis, and vowing not to bow to Western pressure.
“Those who believe they can make us kneel by economic manipulation, have never understood this nation at all,” he told a crowd in Gumushane, a province on Turkey’s northern Black Sea coast. “They can’t use threatening language, blackmailing language against this nation. Especially bullying will not cut it with our nation.”
After watching Mr. Erdogan on live television, Asli Aydintasbas, senior fellow with the European Council on Foreign Relations, said, “They have no deal, their positions have hardened.”

The breakdown was surprising, she said, because Mr. Trump had appeared to reach the outlines of an agreement for the pastor’s release with Mr. Erdogan on the sidelines of the NATO summit last month.

In exchange, the United States agreed to arrange for the Turkish banker, Mehmet Hakan Atilla, who is serving a 32-month prison term in the United States, to be returned to serve the remainder of his sentence in Turkey.
After his meeting with Mr. Erdogan, Mr. Trump even threw in an extra favor, asking Israel to release a Turkish detainee, Ebru Ozkan, who was quickly freed.

Washington wanted Mr. Brunson released immediately, but the formalities of the Turkish banker’s transfer were expected to take two or three weeks, according to Ms. Aydintasbas.
The deal has not happened, she said, as Turkey has held out for further guarantees, including the lowering of a fine by the United States Treasury against the state-owned Turkish bank Halkbank for conspiring to violate United States sanctions against Iran, and a promise to cease any further prosecutions.
According to one American official, Turkey had been given a deadline to release Mr. Brunson, who is now under house arrest at his home in the Turkish coastal city of Izmir, by 6 p.m. Wednesday.
Turkey had seemed to be trying to stave off the crisis by scrambling a delegation to travel to Washington for more talks that day.

The talks did not go well, said a second American official.
“The conversations continue,” said Heather Nauert, the State Department spokeswoman, after the discussions.

By Friday Mr. Erdogan seemed determined to tough it out. He called on Turks to sell their gold and dollars and buy lira to bolster the Turkish currency.
“Those who have dollars, euros, gold under their pillows, should go and change them in our banks for the Turkish Lira,” he said. “This is a national struggle.”
“Erdogan has made a decision,” Ms. Aydintasbas said. “His speech was clearly very defiant.”
Yet Turkey’s economic situation looked increasingly fragile.

The lira’s plunge has sent shudders through financial markets because it has raised doubts about investing in Turkish securities. The yield on Turkish 10-year bonds has risen sharply, to more than 20 percent, which means traders are demanding much higher returns for what they see as an increasingly risky investment.
The anxiety extended to doubts about Asian and European banks that have heavily invested in Turkey, and it contributed to declines in stock markets around the world. As with the financial crisis set off by Greece in 2010, Friday’s events were the latest example of how troubles in a nation with a midsize economy but world-class problems could threaten financial stability further afield.

“In financial markets everything is interlinked,” said Bart Hordijk, a market analyst in Amsterdam at Monex Europe, a foreign exchange firm. “You don’t know if one bank has huge exposure to the Turkish lira.”
As a result, Mr. Hordijk said, “People scramble to safer assets.”
In power for 15 years already, Mr. Erdogan’s popularity has depended greatly on his ability to bring Turks continued economic growth. It has created a middle class beholden to him, even as he has trimmed civil liberties, jailed opponents, and constrained traditional and social media alike.
He called snap elections this year, a year and a half ahead of schedule, driven in part by signs that the economy was faltering. Yet the lira plunged even in the midst of his re-election campaign.

The economic trouble has only worsened in the weeks since Mr. Erdogan acquired sweeping executive powers after his re-election to a newly enhanced presidential system in June.
The currency’s sharp decline has reflected concerns about the fundamentals of Mr. Erdogan’s economic model, which has depended on a voracious construction industry that his opponents say has enriched his inner circle while heaping debt on the country.
The even steeper fall in the lira since Mr. Erdogan’s re-election is now fueled by worries that he is ever more insulated and is taking no one’s economic advice but his own.
In an example of his increased role, he has resisted calls for a rise in interest rates to curb inflation and to ease pressure on the lira.

Berat Albayrak, Mr. Erdogan’s son-in-law, who has been appointed to the combined post of Treasury and Finance Minister, attempted to calm markets with a briefing to the news media.
He insisted that Turkey would respect the independence of the Central Bank even as Mr. Erdogan’s interference in monetary policy has been one of the causes of the fall of the lira, and that its economy would even show positive growth this year.
“Turkey will go further with its friends and with those who say ‘We are for winning with Turkey,’” he said. “Turkey has a very strong banking sector, it is well prepared to these kind of scenarios with its capital structure.”

Turkey also announced that Mr. Erdogan had held a telephone call with Russia’s president, Vladimir V. Putin, on Friday to discuss economic ties amid the market turmoil, The Associated Press reported. Mr. Erdogan, who has often touted his relationship with Russia as a signal that he has an alternative to relations with the West, said they discussed Russian tourism to Turkey.
The minister of trade, Ruhsar Pekcan, reacted the news of the new sanctions in measures tones, pleading for a return to negotiations.
“Turkey is deeply disappointed by the U.S. Administration’s decision to double steel and aluminum tariffs,” he said in a statement. “The tariffs were groundless when they were announced in June, and remain so now.”

“The effects of this ill-advised action by the U.S. Administration will not only impact Turkey, but will prove detrimental to American companies and workers as well.”
“We implore President Trump to return to the negotiating table — this can and should be resolved through dialogue and cooperation.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/10/business/turkey-erdogan-economy-lira.html

President Erdogan said: "If they have dollars, we have our people, we have our right and we have Allah"

Ointagru Unartan wrote:Inace, Anduril je jos 2008. predvideo neminovni kolaps turske privrede. I eto, samo deset godina kasnije to je na putu da se ostvari. Ekonomska nauka ne gresi.

...
To convey that Turkey does not respond to threats, we retaliated by sanctioning multiple American officials. Moving forward, we will abide by the same principle: Attempting to force my government to intervene in the judicial process is not in line with our Constitution or our shared democratic values.

Turkey has established time and again that it will take care of its own business if the United States refuses to listen. In the 1970s, the Turkish government stepped in to prevent massacres of ethnic Turks by the Greek Cypriots despite Washington’s objections. More recently, Washington’s failure to grasp the seriousness of our concerns regarding national security threats emanating from Northern Syria resulted in two military incursions that cut off the so-called Islamic State’s access to NATO’s borders and removed the Y.P.G. militants from the city of Afrin. As in those cases, we will take necessary steps to protect our national interests.

At a time when evil continues to lurk around the world, unilateral actions against Turkey by the United States, our ally of decades, will only serve to undermine American interests and security. Before it is too late, Washington must give up the misguided notion that our relationship can be asymmetrical and come to terms with the fact that Turkey has alternatives. Failure to reverse this trend of unilateralism and disrespect will require us to start looking for new friends and allies.

KinderLad wrote:Mislim, tj nije nemoguće da ima i do toga što US ne želi da Turska postane previše jaka vojno

Zuper wrote:

ERDOGAN SAYS U.S. DEMANDING RELEASE OF PASTOR BY 'TOMORROW 6PM'

No sign of breakthrough as Turkey delegation holds talks in Washington
August 8, 2018 / 1:43 PM / 3 days ago
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A Turkish delegation met with the State Department’s No. 2 official, John Sullivan, on Wednesday to address friction between the NATO allies fueled by Ankara’s detention of several Americans including an evangelical pastor.