EU - what's next?

Update with 87.7% counted:

PP+Vox+UPN (right wing coalition): 170 seats
PSOE+Sumar+regional parties (left wing coalition): 172

176 needed for absolute majority #EleccionesGenerales2023

— Alicia Smith (@Alicia_Smith19) July 23, 2023

Ara mateix:
🟡ERC perd 417 mil vots (47%)
🟢Junts perd 141 mil vots (26%)
CUP 148 mil vots (60%)
En total perden 707 mil vots (43%)

— Josep Costa (@josepcosta) July 23, 2023

The surprise and frustration on display at PP headquarters on Génova street in Madrid was in stark contrast to the uncontainable joy at PSOE headquarters on Ferraz street. Despite the left’s electoral defeat, which Feijóo will try to exploit to demand that the Socialists abstain in order to let him govern, Sánchez has achieved something that seemed impossible less than two months ago, when he decided to take the umpteenth leap into the void by bringing forward the general elections right after the leftist debacle of the regional and municipal elections of May 28: to improve his 2019 results in votes — more than 700,000 — and in seats — two more — and be able to dream of a parliamentary majority that would be even more complex than the current one but not impossible. The Socialists believe that an abstention by Junts could be enough to obtain a majority greater than that of the PP with Vox and the support of UPN and Coalición Canaria, two small parties from Navarre and the Canary Islands, respectively.
The resulting situation in Congress following Sunday’s vote is very complex, almost impossible to solve. The possibility of deadlock is a fact, although the disaster of the last repeat election, in 2019, may serve as an antidote to avoid that temptation. At the moment there are two possible majorities, based on what each of the parties has been saying, although there are many weeks of complex negotiations ahead.
On the one hand, there is the most obvious one, that of the PP with Vox, UPN and Coalición Canaria, a party that many associate with the PP because they are governing with them in the islands. But this sum remains at 171 seats, far from the absolute majority that Feijóo had dreamed of and which many polls took for granted in recent weeks.
The other possible majority is that of the PSOE with Sumar, which has managed to hold on to 31 seats — United We Can had 35 — although it has fallen 20,000 votes short of third place, which once again goes to Vox. To them would have to be added, as it has now, the votes of the PNV, the pro-independence Catalan Republican Left (ERC), the far-left Basque Bildu party and the Galician Nationalist Bloc (BNG), something that seems feasible for an investiture vote, although it is always complex. These groups total 172 seats, one more than the 171 of the PP bloc.
But here the decisive key would be held by Junts, the party of Carles Puigdemont, the former Catalan premier who pushed forward an illegal independence referendum, then fled to Belgium to avoid prosecution. In this formula, Sánchez would not need the affirmative vote of Junts to become the next prime minister, something difficult to imagine, but an abstention would be enough.
Still, it is an even more complex majority than the current one, so there is still a long match ahead to clarify which of the two options could prevail or whether the deadlock leads to new elections. “We will not make Pedro Sánchez the PM in exchange for nothing,” warned Miriam Nogueras, head of the Junts list, on election night. The pro-independence parties may be decisive, but their results in Catalonia have been disastrous for them. A total of nine seats have been lost in these elections, which have gone particularly well for the Catalan Socialist Party (PSC).