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by Nektivni Ugnelj Thu Jan 12, 2023 3:17 pmGeneralno, nemam uopšte neka umirujuća predvidjanja za 2023. Mislim da je šansa za eskalaciju rata mnogo veća nego za neko brzo smirivanje. Mislim da ćemo sto posto gledati i nove ukrajinske i nove ruske ofanzive, a ne bih uopšte isključio ni direktno mešanje NATO-a i stim u vezi nove opasnosti od "nuklearizacije" konflikta. Biće svega...
Rat u Ukrajini
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Ja mislim da je Nato uplasen, posto su Rusi po sopstvenim priznanjima unistili 59 HiMarsa od 24 koliko je Nato poslao Ukrajini.
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Mór Thököly wrote:Generalno, nemam uopšte neka umirujuća predvidjanja za 2023. Mislim da je šansa za eskalaciju rata mnogo veća nego za neko brzo smirivanje. Mislim da ćemo sto posto gledati i nove ukrajinske i nove ruske ofanzive, a ne bih uopšte isključio ni direktno mešanje NATO-a i stim u vezi nove opasnosti od "nuklearizacije" konflikta. Biće svega...
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Međuopštinski pustolov.
Zli stolar.
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Filipenko wrote:Ja mislim da je Nato uplasen, posto su Rusi po sopstvenim priznanjima unistili 59 HiMarsa od 24 koliko je Nato poslao Ukrajini.
smiješno je, realno
ratovali lažov i lopov
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#FreeFacu
Дакле, волео бих да се ЈСД Партизан угаси, али не и да сви (или било који) гробар умре.
Del Cap
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Ako neko može da otvori i kopira ceo tekst, hvala
There is „worry that Kyiv has allowed itself to be sucked into the battle for Bakhmut on Russian terms, losing the forces it needs for a planned spring offensive as it stubbornly clings to a town of limited strategic relevance.“ https://t.co/iHxLvWgXgi
— Franz-Stefan Gady (@HoansSolo) January 11, 2023
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šta bi hvalilo planu da se i jedni i drugi zaglave u nekoj besmislenoj bici u kojoj će jedni drugima da izlome to malo zuba što im je ostalo dok neko ne odluči da proglasi fajront žurke jer niko neće da preskače povraćku po stepeništu, sluša hitove mire škorić i saginje se da ga ne pogodi flaša s prozora. meni se laički čini da ima elemenata.
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#FreeFacu
Дакле, волео бих да се ЈСД Партизан угаси, али не и да сви (или било који) гробар умре.
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Nema tog nekog sa strane ko će obe strane da privoli na fajront.
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Del Cap wrote:Ako neko može da otvori i kopira ceo tekst, hvalaThere is „worry that Kyiv has allowed itself to be sucked into the battle for Bakhmut on Russian terms, losing the forces it needs for a planned spring offensive as it stubbornly clings to a town of limited strategic relevance.“ https://t.co/iHxLvWgXgi
— Franz-Stefan Gady (@HoansSolo) January 11, 2023
Oprezno bih rekao da nije nemoguce da Zapad ima neku ideju o zavrsetku. Koja bi se okvirno mogla nazvati "24.02."
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rusi ostaju bez para za cugu, nisam siguran da entuzijazam planete prema ukrajiskom slučaju i dalje raste uprkos ceni koju plaćaju za to (planeta)
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#FreeFacu
Дакле, волео бих да се ЈСД Партизан угаси, али не и да сви (или било који) гробар умре.
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Location : wife privilege
Del Cap wrote:Nema tog nekog sa strane ko će obe strane da privoli na fajront.
Шумар отеран у пензију и сад неће да се врати.
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cousin for roasting the rakija
И кажем себи у сну, еј бре коњу па ти ни немаш озвучење, имаш оне две кутијице око монитора, видећеш кад се пробудиш...
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Неће они никад остати без пара за пиће. Цепаће шпиритус, колоњску воду, антифриз, шта год. Фунфурје.
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Burundi is an exception among other nations because it is a country which gave God first place, a God who guards and protects from all misfortune.
Burundi... opskurno udruženje 20ak levičarskih intelektualaca, kojima je fetiš odbrana poniženih i uvredjenih.
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Del Cap wrote:Ako neko može da otvori i kopira ceo tekst, hvalaThere is „worry that Kyiv has allowed itself to be sucked into the battle for Bakhmut on Russian terms, losing the forces it needs for a planned spring offensive as it stubbornly clings to a town of limited strategic relevance.“ https://t.co/iHxLvWgXgi
— Franz-Stefan Gady (@HoansSolo) January 11, 2023
- Spoiler:
Russia claimed its first significant success in Ukraine since July, seizing most of the eastern town of Soledar after weeks of heavy fighting led by the Wagner Group paramilitary organization, as the country’s top military officer took direct command of the campaign.
Gen. Valery Gerasimov’s appointment as commander of Russia’s war effort in Ukraine sidelines Gen. Sergei Surovikin, who was named to lead Russian forces there three months ago.
The reshuffle comes amid an increasingly public conflict between Wagner’s owner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, and the Russian military establishment. Mr. Prigozhin, a former chef and a confidant of Russian President Vladimir Putin, has criticized Gen. Gerasimov for the lackluster performance of regular Russian troops and praised Gen. Surovikin.
On Wednesday, Mr. Prigozhin said that, while the entire territory of the town is under Wagner fighters’ control, street battles with the encircled remainder of Ukrainian forces are continuing in the downtown area.
Ukrainian officials acknowledged Wagner’s recent advances in Soledar, a resort town of salt mines with a prewar population of 10,000 people, but denied that it had fallen.
“Soledar is not under the control of the Russian Federation, our troops are not encircled, they continue combat, and we retain the ability to supply them with weapons and provisions,” Col. Serhiy Cherevatyi of the Ukrainian military’s Eastern Command said Wednesday. He declined to comment on how much of Soledar remains in Ukrainian hands.
“At this point, we can’t corroborate that reporting” that Soledar has fallen to the Russians, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Wednesday during a press conference in Washington with his Japanese counterpart. “The Ukrainians have acquitted themselves in a very impressive fashion as they continue to fight a very determined fight,” Mr. Austin said.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Wednesday to wait for official statements on the situation in Soledar.
“Let’s not rush,” Mr. Peskov said. “There is a positive momentum of advancement there, but military success will be achieved when we meet the goals set by the commander-in-chief,” he said, referring to Mr. Putin.
Russian advances in Soledar imperil Ukraine’s ability to defend the nearby city of Bakhmut, which Wagner’s troops have been storming for the past six months. A much bigger city and a gateway to the Ukrainian controlled half of the Donetsk region claimed by Russia, Bakhmut has become a symbol of Ukrainian resistance in the war and the conflict’s main battlefield in recent weeks.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited front-line troops in Bakhmut just before flying to the U.S. last month, presenting a flag signed by soldiers to Congress.
Wagner, which has grown to a force of some 50,000 men after recruiting inmates throughout Russia’s prison system, seeks to portray itself as the only Russian unit capable of offensive operations. Mr. Prigozhin said in his message on Soledar that no regular Russian troops were involved in battles there.
The Russian Defense Ministry disputed that. Russian VDV airborne troops were blocking Soledar from the north and the south, the Russian air force was striking Ukrainian positions in the area and other Russian units were fighting inside the town, it said.
Mr. Prigozhin and another warlord with a de facto private army, Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, have repeatedly attacked the leadership of the Russian military as incompetent after Moscow lost large parts of the Kharkiv, Donetsk and Kherson regions to Ukrainian offensives in September, October and November. The last time Russia made gains in the war was the seizure of the cities of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, an operation where Wagner played a major role, in late June and early July.
As the power struggle between Mr. Prigozhin and the Russian defense establishment burst into the open, Mr. Putin has so far stood by his defense minister, Sergei Shoigu, and Gen. Gerasimov, the defense general staff chief. On Tuesday, Russia’s Defense Ministry promoted Col. Gen. Alexander Lapin, whom Messrs. Prigozhin and Kadyrov demanded to be punished for Russian defeats in Kharkiv, to become chief of staff of Russian land forces.
On Wednesday, Mr. Shoigu tapped Gen. Gerasimov to take direct control of the war. “The increase in the level of leadership of the special military operation is caused by the expansion of the scale of objectives in its course, and by the need to organize closer coordination among the types and branches of the Armed Forces,” the Defense Ministry said.
Gen. Surovikin, the head of the Russian air force, will now be one of Gen. Gerasimov’s three deputies for the war in Ukraine, alongside the commander of land forces, Gen. Oleg Salyukov, and the deputy chief of general staff, Col.-Gen. Aleksey Kim. The most significant moment in Gen. Surovikin’s tenure as the commander in Ukraine was the November televised request to Mr. Shoigu to withdraw Russian forces from the city of Kherson and the remainder of the right bank of the Dnipro River.
Wagner has transformed itself over the past 11 months from a relatively small elite force that sent mercenaries to Syria and Africa to a multitiered corps-size formation. Highly skilled veterans still command Wagner units and provide artillery and air support. The storming of Ukrainian positions is usually carried out by convicts, who are executed for desertion or cowardice but have been promised a pardon and a possibility to return home should they survive six months in Ukraine. Mr. Prigozhin this month released the first batch of a few dozen such survivors, many of them missing limbs.
“The enemy pays no attention to huge losses of its personnel and continues the active assault. The approaches to our positions are simply littered with the bodies of the adversary’s dead soldiers,” said Ukraine’s deputy defense minister, Hanna Malyar.
Ukraine, however, is also taking high casualties on the Bakhmut-Soledar front, quickly depleting the strength of several brigades sent there as reinforcements in the past month.
In May and June, Ukraine made a similar stand in nearby Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, grinding down Russian forces in heavy street battles before eventually retreating to escape encirclement. That neutralized, for a while, Russia’s offensive abilities.
At the time, however, Russia was mostly waging the war with professional contract troops, and suffered from severe manpower shortages. Mr. Putin’s October mobilization of 300,000 reservists, coupled with Wagner’s prison recruitment drive that started in earnest in August, have changed the arithmetic of attrition in Russia’s favor. Mr. Prigozhin has said that his goal in the Bakhmut area isn’t so much to seize the city itself as to destroy Ukraine’s most combat-capable forces.
Western—and some Ukrainian—officials, soldiers and analysts increasingly worry that Kyiv has allowed itself to be sucked into the battle for Bakhmut on Russian terms, losing the forces it needs for a planned spring offensive as it stubbornly clings to a town of limited strategic relevance. Some of them say that it would make sense to retreat to a new defensive line on the heights west of Bakhmut while such a pullback can still be organized in a coordinated fashion, preserving the Ukrainian military’s combat strength.
“It’s not me, it’s King Leonidas who figured out that you should fight the enemy on the terrain that is advantageous to you,” said one Ukrainian commander in Bakhmut, referring to the ruler of Sparta who battled the Persian Empire at Thermopylae. “So far, the exchange rate of trading our lives for theirs favors the Russians. If this goes on like this, we could run out.”
Separately, Ukraine and Russia’s top human-rights officers held talks in the Turkish capital on Wednesday to discuss future prisoner exchanges, in a rare face-to-face meeting between officials from the two countries. Ukraine’s Human Rights Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets was pictured sitting across a large table from Russia’s Tatyana Moskalkova.
Ms. Moskalkova, quoted by Russian state newswire TASS, said that both sides agreed on the exchange of 40 prisoners each, without providing more details.
Mr. Lubinets said the two discussed “a wide range of humanitarian problems and cases” and “exchanged specific offers.”
Poland’s President Andrzej Duda met Wednesday with Mr. Zelensky and Lithuania’s leader Gitanas Nauseda in Lviv, in western Ukraine, as part of the Lublin Triangle summit, a regional alliance created by the three countries.
Mr. Duda said Poland would give Ukraine 14 Leopard main battle tanks, provided that other allies agree to donate Western-made tanks of their own. Germany’s permission would be required to export the German-made Leopard tanks, which are some of the world’s heaviest combat vehicles, and seen as well-suited for retaking most territory.
“We would like this to be an international coalition and we have decided to include a package of the Leopard tank company in it, which hopefully along with other tank companies will soon be sent to Ukraine,” said Mr. Duda.
Ukraine has said it needs around an additional 300 main battle tanks to clear Russian troops from the roughly one fifth of the country they still occupy. So far, no country or collection of governments has come close to pledging that amount of Western-made tanks, though offers of tanks from Poland, the U.K. and elsewhere could open the doors to larger commitments. The U.S. and the Netherlands in November said they would pay to refurbish and modernize some 90 Soviet-designed T72 tanks owned by the Czech Republic.
“One country cannot provide us with enough tanks, because we have to deal with thousands of tanks from the Russian Federation,” Mr. Zelensky said.
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my goosebumps have goosebumps
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Sad nesto razmisljam oko one premetacine djenerala od juce, sto sam protumacio pripremom za ofanzivu. Nije nemoguce ni da su kaznjeni ako su Botoksu stali na zulj nekom racionalnom pricom ili izvestajem da nema snage za rat, da je dzaba ljudstvo jer ni ovo nemaju da opreme. Pa se Botoks naljutio i postavio ih na direktno odgovorna mesta.
Bumo videli. Ovim su obrnuli celu igricu, od invazije bez komandanta u kojoj svaki djeneral vodi dodeljenu mu armiju kako zna i ume do gomilebabica djenerala koji bi zapravo trebali da se staraju o celokupnoj vojsci kao takvoj, umesto da diriguju iz Moskve lokalnim komandantima sta da rade. Stavka, stavka, bez tebe se ne vari travka.
Bumo videli. Ovim su obrnuli celu igricu, od invazije bez komandanta u kojoj svaki djeneral vodi dodeljenu mu armiju kako zna i ume do gomile
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Ja mislim da su u pitanju pre svega političke igre i strah da bi bilo ko ko ostane malo duže na jednom mestu, naročito ako je iole sposoban (a ova dvojica to po svemu sudeći jesu) mogao potencijalno da predstavlja centar otpora. Kao kad Vučić šeta ministre s jedne na drugu poziciju, bez (javnosti) jasnih razloga.
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"Oni kroz mene gledaju u vas! Oni kroz njega gledaju u vas! Oni kroz vas gledaju u mene... i u sve nas."
Dragoslav Bokan, Novi putevi oftalmologije
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Situacija na Bakhmutskom frontu se kako izgleda trenutno ne odvija u ukrajinsku korist.
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Artjomovskom frontu.
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1. Yes, Russians have occasional shortages of some types of ammo, but overall we continue observing significant efforts to organize logistics and move humongous numbers of supplies across entire Russia.
— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) January 12, 2023
3. Because their logistical routes were disrupted, people falsely assumed that Russians are running out of ammo. This is false and factually incorrect
— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) January 12, 2023
5. Russia continues the build-up of units with emphasis on offensive capabilities, compromised mostly of mobilized mixed with rotated units.
— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) January 12, 2023
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Ma naravno. Daleko je Sunce.
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Može i ovde.
Dok ne otvorimo topik Poljsko-Litavska Unija
Dok ne otvorimo topik Poljsko-Litavska Unija
VILNIUS, Jan 13 (Reuters) - A gas pipeline connecting Lithuania and Latvia was hit by an explosion on Friday but there was no immediate evidence of an attack, Lithuania gas transmission operator Amber Grid said.
BREAKING: Fire caught on video from the blast from the gas pipeline connecting Lithuania and Latvia
— Jack Posobiec
Public broadcaster LRT reports that the town of Pasvalys, in northern Lithuania, has evacuated due to the situation pic.twitter.com/I0WL6sXEs4(@JackPosobiec) January 13, 2023
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Međuopštinski pustolov.
Zli stolar.
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Iz Amerike s ljubavlju.
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🧵To supply #Ukraine️, the US has run down its weapons inventories so much that they will take 3 to 7 YEARS to replenish (even at surge rates), per new research by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies. This has huge implications, for
— Collingwoodand, perhaps more...[1/n]
(@admcollingwood) January 13, 2023
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In the so-called. Mr. Prigogine's "silence" contains, however, a very loud allusion to the "rocking boat". Yes, and the statement of Mr. Troshev (who is employed by Prigogine) could hardly have been heard without the permission of the "boss".
On the face of the most acute conflict between the "official Ministry of Defense" and "unofficial army." Rather, between their leadership. A conflict during a war is completely unacceptable.
In the absence of sympathy for both sides of the conflict (both for the leadership of the RF Ministry of Defense and for the management team of PMC "Wagner"), I dare to believe that this aggravation is caused by the threat that arose to "Wagner" from the new commander of the operation - "faithful shoigushnik" Gerasimov.
The head of the NGSH (whom Prigozhin, moreover, personally criticized) is clearly sent to a new place with one main goal: to "end the front" in relation to the Plywood Marshal, who is flourishing at the front. In the short term, as I see it, Shoigu (through the hands of Gerasimov) will "blank through" to achieve complete subordination of the PMC units of the Ministry of Defense - up to the disbandment of the Wagner units and the transfer of personnel / weapons to their own structures (for example, the long-existing "manual" PMC "Patriot"). With the removal of all those whom Shoigu and Gerasimov personally consider "hostile" for themselves and dangerous (this is for Shoigu personally) in terms of competition in the domestic political field.
And now - the last word for the president. Putin (as he likes) should act as arbitrator. If the situation does not change and "Wagner" retains its authority, then the intervention has occurred. If not... Prigozhin will be thrown out not only from the military, but also from the political field (because without his private army he is no one and there is no way to call him). And - in turn - this will mean a sharp strengthening of the position of Shoigu himself (which is also unlikely to please many in Staraya Ploshchad and Putin's entourage).
If we break away from the undercover political intrigues of the Kremlin reptiles, then the most normal way out of the current situation (logical from all sides) would be to accept Putin personally as the commander-in-chief. And then both sides of the conflict would remain "on an equal footing" before him, as commander in chief. However, the president has been stubbornly evading personal responsibility for the actions of the troops in the war for almost 11 months (and not in vain - somehow "not a lot" with the victories of the troops). But now he will still have to make a choice: either let Prigozhin be "devoured", or deal a strong blow to Shoigu, or take up the matter himself.
If he's still capable of any of those things, of course...
Strelkov. Loš prevod, jebi ga.
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Sve čega ima na filmu, rekao sam, ima i na Zlatiboru.
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Ne dajte da vas prevare! Sačuvajte svoje pojene!
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Del Cap wrote:🧵To supply #Ukraine️, the US has run down its weapons inventories so much that they will take 3 to 7 YEARS to replenish (even at surge rates), per new research by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies. This has huge implications, for
— Collingwood
Yes. But.
Ovo je THE war, i cini mi se da je US, uz, posebno, UK jedina zemlja na zapadu koja to razume.. Ako skrše Rusiju i, sledstveno, odvoje je od Kine, uradili su pola posla sa Kinom.
Ali generalno, mislim da greše oni koji potpuno odvajaju dva "teatra"
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Koliko god da su im siromašni kapaciteti, ruski su još siromašniji. Druga stvar, Ukrajinci su za jednu do dve uspešne ofanzive daleko od pobede. Rusi tek treba da utvrde šta žele.
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Sve čega ima na filmu, rekao sam, ima i na Zlatiboru.
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Ne dajte da vas prevare! Sačuvajte svoje pojene!
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Mór Thököly wrote:
Ovo je THE war, i cini mi se da je US, uz, posebno, UK jedina zemlja na zapadu koja to razume.. Ako skrše Rusiju i, sledstveno, odvoje je od Kine, uradili su pola posla sa Kinom.
Ali generalno, mislim da greše oni koji potpuno odvajaju dva "teatra"
Pre nekoliko dana su objavljeni rezultati simulacije rata Kine i Amerike oko Tajvana - ja sam je pročitao na Index.hr
Ono što je meni bilo zanimljivo (a to se već pokazalo u ratu u Ukrajini) je ogromna ranjivost brodova.
Procena je da bi kineska mornarica prestala da postoji, a USA bi slično prošla - mislim da se pominju 2 uništena nosača aviona i gomila drugih brodova.
E sad, ovi stručnjaci što se razumu treba da kažu da li to znači da bi u eventualnom nenuklearnom ratu mornarica i brodovi trebalo da budu prvi cilj, pa ide nekoliko praznih mesta.
I naravno, sad je još jasnije zašto Argentina nema avijaciju.
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Sweet and Tender Hooligan
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