Again, the Russian military has demonstrated serious weaknesses over the past week, but they were set up for failure by their leadership. https://t.co/KnC9oludaG
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) March 6, 2022
USA - Biden “How did we get to the place where Putin just decides to invade Russia”
— Bernie's Tweets (@BernieSpofforth) March 5, 2022#Biden #RussianUkrainianWar
pic.twitter.com/4aoi48T4GE
Trump mused to donors that we should take our F-22 planes, "put the Chinese flag on them and bomb the shit out" out of Russia. "And then we say, China did it, we didn't do, China did it, and then they start fighting with each other and we sit back and watch."
— Josh Dawsey (@jdawsey1) March 6, 2022
[size=33]How did we get to the place where Putin just decides to invade Russia[/size]
UK’s response shows a “lack of humanity” toward Ukrainian refugees French Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin has said in a letter to his British counterpart.
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) March 6, 2022
400 Ukrainians with families in UK have arrived at Calais border crossings but 150 of them were told to go away. pic.twitter.com/B0wgyHDhDf
Zorana Baković posebna je izvjestiteljica ljubljanskog Dela za Aziju. Desetljećima je živjela u Kini i bila dopisnica tog slovenskog dnevnika. Briljantna je poznavateljica te države i cijelog Dalekog istoka uopće, zasigurno jedna od najboljih u Europi. S njom smo razgovarali o tome što invazija Rusije na Ukrajinu znači za Kinu i njenu politiku.
Ono što se vrlo brzo pokazalo nakon početka Putinove agresije na Ukrajinu jest to da se Kina preračunala. Xi je očekivao da će se dogoditi nešto slično gruzijskoj formuli iz 2008. Dakle, da će Putin vjerojatno uzeti Donjeck i Lugansk, da će s Donbasom završiti i vratiti se natrag u Rusiju. Kina ne bi, kao što nije ni 2008. ni u slučaju aneksije Krima 2014. godine, podržala i dala podršku Putinovim teritorijalnim prekrajanjima. Kina to ne može otvoreno podržati, ali bi prešutjela i išla dalje. Kina to ne može upravo zbog ovoga što ste rekli, a to je Tajvan kojega Kina smatra neodvojivim dijelom svojeg teritorija.
Kina očito nije očekivala da će razmjeri rata biti ovoliki. Nije očekivala ovolika razaranja, da će Putin ući u potpuno osvajanje zemlje s kojom Kina ima vrlo dobre odnose. U ovom trenutku Kina je između dvije vatre: ne može reći da imaju problem s Rusijom, a ne može ne provoditi sankcije prema Rusije, ma kako ih neće proglasiti. Tamo gdje su sankcije već zavedene, Kina se mora ponašati u skladu s njima i ona ih je među prvima počela provoditi, primjerice zaustavljanjem ruskih plaćanja preko SWIFT-a. Nije pustila ruske firme unutar svog platnog sustava iz jednostavnog razloga – Kina si ne može priuštiti nikakav bojkot kineskih firmi u SWIFT-u niti neulazak inozemnih kompanija u Kinu. Ona je najveći izvoznik na svijetu, na nju otpada 15 posto.
Ali Kina je pomogla Putinu.
Kina je pomogla Putinu time što je kupila dio nafte i plina koji sada neće ići na zapad. Kupila je i veliku količinu ugljena, iako provodi politiku dekarbonizacije i otvorila je mogućnost kupnje ruske pšenice, sve s namjerom da Putinu olakša preživjeti sankcije. Kako će stvari ići dalje, tako će Kina biti prinuđena sve više poštivati sankcije. Teritorijalni suverenitet i integritet nositelj je kineske vanjske politike, a prekršen je u tolikoj mjeri da Kina ne može ostati u odnosima s Putinom u kakvima je bila. Kina je uvijek naglašavala da ti dobri odnosi s Rusijom nisu savezništvo. Naglašavaju da prijateljstvo nije savez.
Je li u svemu ovome Kina ojačala svoju poziciju prema Rusiji? Čini se da je Rusija još ovisnija o Kini zato što Peking otkupljuje njenu robu, energente i pšenicu, što bi se moglo tumačiti i tako da je Rusija malo više u krilu Kine nego što je bila, a Kina je ionako ekonomski mnogo jača od Rusije.
To ćemo vidjeti. Moramo prvo vidjeti koje su namjere Putina. Ne vidim ih sasvim jasno. Kina je u ovom trenutku na višoj poziciji nego Rusija. Kineska ekonomija je deset puta veća po obimu nego ruska, tehnološki je razvijenija. Ne možemo reći u kakvom je omjeru kineska vojska u odnosu prema ruskoj jer se još nije prikazala na način kako se sada prikazuje ruska u Ukrajini. Problem Kine sada je, iako se možda osjeća superiornijom, to što ni oni ne čitaju što to zapravo Putin hoće i kuda ide. Putin je napravio nešto što je usporedivo s onom što je napravio Staljin 1950. Kina se sprema za intervenciju prema Tajvanu. Povratak Tajvana pod kontrolu i suverenitet Pekinga apsolutno je najvažnije povijesno pitanje koje kinesko rukovodstvo mora riješiti. Predsjednik XI je sebi taj zadatak vidno upisao u svoj plan. Ne znamo da li u kratkoročni, srednjoročni ili dugoročni. Međutim, to bi se trebalo dogoditi prije 2049. kada NR Kina slavi sto godina. U trenutku kada su se pojavili veliki znaci da se Kina sprema na moguće pritiske, uključivo i vojne, prema Tajvanu, Putin kreće u rat koji onemogućava Kinu da krene prema Tajvanu u bilo kom obliku. Kina je shvatila do koje mjere Zapad može biti ujedinjen kada je riječ o nečemu što je iz njegove percepcije nedopustivo. Shvatila je da je sve što su Putin i Xi jedan drugome govorili: da je Zapad u opadanju, Amerika u velikoj krizi, da se pojavljuje početak azijskog stoljeća nije točno. Xi mora odgoditi sve planove u odnosu na Tajvan baš kao što je Mao morao odgoditi napad na Tajvan nakon što je Staljin ušao u Sjevernu Koreju 1950.
‘Lieutenant Kovalensky said he learned Russia would invade Ukraine only the evening before… sergeant and lower were not told where they were driving until after crossing the border’ https://t.co/mzdnX3L9Lr
— Manish Vij(@vijmn) March 6, 2022
Last night, an alleged FSB whistle-blower letter was published that damned Russia's military performance in Ukraine and predicted a disaster for the RU in the next weeks and months. I wasn't sure if it was authentic - as Ukraine had previously leaked fake FSB letters as psy-ops.
— Christo Grozev (@christogrozev) March 5, 2022
I showed the letter to two actual (current or former) FSB contacts, and they had no doubt it was written by a colleague. They didn't agree with all of his conclusions, but that's a different story.
— Christo Grozev (@christogrozev) March 5, 2022
Here's the text, worth reading: https://t.co/KyRDX4VuDV
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1500301348780199937.htmlIgor Sushko
7h • 69 tweets • 10 min read
My translation of the analysis of the current situation in Russia by an active FSB analyst. Buckle up for a long thread and definitely please share far & wide. The full text is over 2000 words. This is a highly insightful look behind the curtain - covers many subjects.
I will add clarification comments inside parenthesis where necessary. So, let's roll:
"I have hardly slept at all these days, at work at almost all times, I have brain-fog. Maybe from overworking, but I feel like I am in a surreal world.
The Pandora’s Box is open – a real global horror will begin by the summer – global famine is inevitable as Russia and Ukraine are main producers of wheat. (MY COMMENTARY: I disagree that this will result in global famine.)
I can’t say what guided those in charge to decide to proceed with the execution of this operation (Ukraine invasion), but now they are methodically blaming us (FSB). We are being scolded for our analysis. Recently, we have been increasingly pressured to prepare more reports.
All of these political consultants and politicians and the powers-that-be are causing chaos. Most importantly, no one knew that there will be such a war – it was concealed from everyone.
For example – you are being asked to analyze various outcomes and consequences of a meteorite attack on Russia (MY COMMENTARY: Here he most likely means the West’s sanctions) –
So you research the mode of attack, and you are being told that it’s just a hypothetical and not to stress on the details, so you understand the report is only intended as a checkbox for some bureaucrat, and the conclusions of the analysis must be positive for Russia,
otherwise you basically get interrogated for not doing good work. So, you have to write that we have all necessary measures available to nullify the effects of a given type of attack. We are completely overworked.
But then it turns out that the hypothetical has turned into reality, and the analysis we’ve done on that hypothetical is total trash. We have no answer to the sanctions because of this. No one knew there’d be such a war, so no one prepared for these sanctions.
It’s the flipside consequence of the secrecy – since everyone was kept in the dark, how could we prepare for it?
Kadyrov has gone nuts. We (FSB) were very close to a conflict with him because the Ukrainians claimed to having received intel from the FSB on his squad in Kyiv.
Kadyrov's squad was absolutely demolished before they even had a chance to fight and they got blown to pieces. I do not have any info that it was an FSB leak to Ukraine, so I’d give it a 1-2% chance – but can’t exclude this possibility completely.
Our Blitzkrieg has totally collapsed. It is impossible to complete the task: If Zelensky and his deputies were captured in the first 3 days, all key buildings also captured, and they were forced to read an address of their surrender to the country,
then Ukraine’s resistance would have likely dissolved to a minimal level. Theoretically. But then what? Even in this IDEAL outcome, there remained an unsolvable problem: Who is the counterparty to our negotiations?
If we remove Zelensky – fine – who is going to sign the agreement? If Zelensky signs, then that agreement is worthless after we remove him. ОПЗЖ (The Opposition Party in Ukraine collaborating with Russia) has refused to cooperate.
Medvechuk, the coward, ran away. There is another leader – Boyko, but he refused too, even his own people won’t understand him. Wanted to bring back Tsaryova, but even our guys are against him here in Russia. Bring back Yanukovich? But how?
If we are saying we can’t occupy, then the newly formed government will be overthrown in 10 minutes as soon as we leave.
To occupy? Where would we find that many people? Commandant’s office, military police, counter-intelligence, security – even at minimum resistance from the Ukrainians, we’d need over 500,000 people, not including supply & logistics.
There’s a rule - if you try to cover for bad quality leadership with quantity, you’ll make everything worse. And I repeat this would be the problem in the IDEAL SCENARIO, which does not exist.
And what now? We cannot announce general mobilization for two reasons:
1) Mobilization will implode the situation inside Russia: political, economic, and social.
2) Our logistics are already over-extended today. We can send a much large contingent into Ukraine, and what would we get? Ukraine – a territorially enormous country, and their hate towards us is astronomical.
Our roads simply cannot accommodate the resupply of such convoys, and everything will come to a halt. And we can’t pull it off from the management side because of the current chaos.
These two reasons exist concurrently, although just one of them is enough to break everything.
With regards to Russian military losses: I don’t know the reality – no one does. There was some information the first 2 days, but now no one knows what is happening in Ukraine. We’ve lost contact with major divisions. (!!)
They may re-establish contact, or may dissipate under an attack, and even the commanders don’t know how many are dead, injured, or captured. Total dead is definitely in the thousands, maybe 10,000, maybe 5,000, or maybe just 2,000.
But even at our command no one knows. But probably closer to 10,000 Russian soldiers killed. And we are not counting losses at DNR & LNR.
Now even we kill Zelensky or take him prisoner, nothing will change. The level of hate toward us is similar to Chechnya. And now, even those loyal to us in Ukraine are publicly against us.
Because all of this was planned at the top (in Russia), because we were told that such a scenario will not happen (Ukraine invasion) except only if we were to be attacked first.
Because we were told that we need to maximize our threats in order to negotiate an outcome through peace. Because we were already preparing protests against Zelensky in Ukraine without ever considering invading Ukraine.
Now, civilian losses in Ukraine will follow a geometric pattern progression, and resistance against us will only get stronger. Infantries already tried to enter cities – out of 20 paratrooper groups, only one had “provisional” success.
Recall the invasion of Mosul. It’s a rule – happens with every country, nothing new. To siege? Over the last decades in Europe – Serbia being the best example, cities can remain functional under siege for years. Humanitarian convoys from Europe to Ukraine is only a matter of time
Our conditional deadline is June. Conditional because in June there will be no economy left in Russia – there will be nothing left.
By and large, next week there will be a collapse (in Russia) to either of the two sides (for vs against war), simply because current tension (in Russia) is unsustainable.
We have no analyses, we can’t make any forecasts in this chaos, no one will be able to say anything with any certainty (in Russia).
To act through intuition, especially with high emotions, this is no poker game. But our bets will have to grow in size with hope that some option will succeed. The tragedy is that we can easily miscalculate, and as a result lose everything.
By and large, Russia does not have an out. There are no options for a possible victory, only of losses – this is it. (BREAK FOR NOW, WILL CONTINUE POSTING TRANSLATION IN A BIT)
(THIS UPCOMING 2nd HALF IS ARGUABLY MORE INTERESTING AND ENDS WITH A PLEASANT SURPRISE)
"100% we’ve repeated our mistake from last century, when we decided to kick the “weak” Japan in order to achieve a quick victory, and it turned our army was in a state of total calamity.
Then, we started a war till the victorious end, then we started conscripting the Bolsheviks for re-education in the army. Then these barely-known Bolsheviks picked up their anti-war slogans and started doing such things...
From the pluses: We did everything to ensure there wasn’t even a hint that we sent penal military units to the front. If you conscript political prisoners and the socially undesirables, the moral spirit of the army will be in the negative.
The enemy (Ukraine) is motivated. Monstrously motivated. Knows how to fight, plenty of capable commanders. They have weapons and support. We will simply establish a precedent of human catastrophe in the world.
What we are afraid of the most: The top is trying to mask old problems with new problems. Largely for this reason Donbass happened in 2014 – We needed to distract the West from the Russian Spring in Crimea, so Donbass’ so-called crisis had to pull in all of the West's attention
and become a bargaining chip. But even bigger problems started there. Then we decided to pressure Erdogan to get 4 pipes for the Southern Stream (gas) and entered Syria.
This is after Suleimani (Islamic Revolutionary Guard) knowingly provided false info to us to solve his own problems. As a result, we couldn’t resolve the problem with Crimea, and Donbass’ problems didn’t go away.
Southern Stream was reduced to 2 pipes (gas), and Syria is hanging – we leave and Assad will be toppled and we will look like idiots, and staying there is hard and pointless.
I don’t know who come up with the “Blitzkrieg of Ukraine.” Had we received all the real inputs, we would have at minimum pointed out that the initial plan is arguable, and that much has to be reassessed. A lot had to be reassessed.
Now we are in crap (PG language mine) up to our necks, and we don’t know what to do. “Denazification” and “demilitarization” are not analytical categories because they don’t have concretely formulated parameters by which meeting of the objectives can be evaluated.
Now we are stuck waiting until some mentally screwed up advisor convinces the top to start a conflict with Europe, with demands to reduce the sanctions – they either loosen the sanctions or war.
And what if the West refuses? In that instance I won’t exclude that we will be pulled into a real international conflict, just like Hitler in 1939. Our “Z” will be equated to the Swastika.
Is there a possibility of a localized nuclear strike (in Ukraine)? Yes. Not for any military objectives. Such a weapon won’t help with the breach of the defenses. But with a goal of scaring everyone else (The West).
We are plowing to create a scenario to blame everything on Ukraine. Naryshkin (Director of Foreign Intelligence Service of Russia) and his SVR is digging the ground to prove that Ukraine was secretly building nuclear weapons. F*&K.
They are hammering at what we’ve already analyzed and closed the book on: We can’t just make up any evidence or proof and existence of specialists and Uranium. Ukraine has a ton of depleted isotope 238 – this is nothing. The production cycle is such that you can’t do it in secret
A dirty bomb can’t be created in secret. Ukraine’s old nuclear power plants can only produce the material as a by-product in minimal amounts. The Americans have such monitoring at these plants with MAGATE that even talking about this is stupid.
Do you know what will start in a week? Let’s let it be even in 2 weeks. We are going to be so screwed we will start reminiscing about the good ol’ hungry days of the 90s.
As the markets are being closed, Nabiullina appears to be taking the right steps, but it’s like plugging holes on a ship with your fingers. The situation will break through anyway and even stronger. Nothing will be solved in 3 or 5 or 7 days any longer.
Kadyrov is kicking his hoofs not without reason. They have their own adventures. He created a name for himself as the invincible – and if he falls down once his own people will remove him.
Next. Syria. “Guys – hold on, everything will end in Ukraine and then we will fortify our positions in Syria.” And now at any moment our contingent stationed there may run out of supplies, and then ridiculous heat will come….
Turkey is closing the strait, and sending supplies to Syria by air is the same as heating an oven with cash. Please note – this is all happening at the same time, and we don’t even have time to throw it all in one pile for analysis.
Our current position is like Germany in 1943-1944 – but that’s our STARTING position in Ukraine.
Sometimes I get lost in this overwork, sometimes it feels as if this is just a dream and all is as it was before.
With regards to prisons – it will get worse. The nuts will start to get tightened till blood. Everywhere. To be frank, purely technically, this is the only way to maintain any control of the situation.
We are already in total mobilization mode. But we can’t remain in this mode for long, but our timetables are unknown, and it will only get worse. Governance always goes astray from mobilization. And just imagine: You can sprint 100m – but try that in a marathon.
And so, with the Ukrainian question we lunged as if going for a 100m sprint, but turned out we’d signed up for a marathon. And this is a rather brief overview of the current events.
To offer further cynicism, I don’t believe that Putin will press the red button to destroy the entire world.
First, it’s not one person that decides, and someone will refuse. There are lots of people involved in the process and there is no single “red” button.
Second, there are certain doubts that it actually functions properly.
Experience shows that the more transparent the control procedures, the easier it is to identify problems. And where it’s murky as to who controls what and how, but always files reports full of bravado, is where there are always problems.
I am not sure that the “red button” system functions according to the declared data. Besides, plutonium fuel must be changed every 10 years.
Third, and this is the most disgusting and sad, I personally do not believe in Putin’s will to sacrifice himself when he does not even allow his closest ministers and advisors to be in his vicinity.
Whether it’s due to Putin's fear of COVID or a possible assassination is irrelevant. If Putin is scared for the most trusted people to be near him, then how could he possibly choose to destroy himself and those dearest to him? ( END OF TRANSLATION )
ADDENDUM: I wrote the following thread on March 1st - my opinion of the situation.
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1498716381759475715
rumbeando wrote:Pojavila se navodna ispovest nekog lika iz FSB-a:
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Janko Suvar
by Janko Suvar Sun Mar 06, 2022 6:49 am