The New Cold War

Историческое, можно сказать, видео первого приземления стратегического бомбардировщика-ракетоносца Ту-95МС ВКС России на одном из аэродромов КНР.
30 ноября 2022 года.https://t.co/HaOPvKPy9Q pic.twitter.com/APSJr6M6l8

— Грета Туборг (@qretaxyeta) November 30, 2022

"Not used to having countries outside the Atlanticist group turn down her commands, Nuland inwardly fumed when South Block refused to scrap the S-400 deal and join the crusade against Russia that she has long been a champion of." https://t.co/X22rWeyaOB

— Ruchir Sharma (@ruchirsharma_1) December 10, 2022

https://www.ft.com/content/d34dfd79-113c-4ac7-814b-a41086c922fa

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A new world energy order is taking shape: How de-dollarisation takes shape: https://t.co/KhuIDE2m0M

— Vassilis K. Fouskas (@VassilisKFouska) January 4, 2023

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Petropolitics come with financial risks as well as upsides. It’s worth remembering that the recycling of petrodollars by oil-rich nations into emerging markets such as Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Zaire, Turkey and others by US commercial banks from the late 1970s onwards led to several emerging market debt crises. Petrodollars also accelerated the creation of a more speculative, debt-fuelled economy in the US, as banks flush with cash created all sorts of new financial “innovations”, and an influx of foreign capital allowed the US to maintain a larger deficit. 


That trend may now start to go into reverse. Already, there are fewer foreign buyers for US Treasuries. If the petroyuan takes off, it would feed the fire of de-dollarisation. China’s control of more energy reserves and the products that spring from them could be an important new contributor to inflation in the west. It’s a slow-burn problem, but perhaps not as slow as some market participants think. What should policymakers and business leaders do? 


If I were chief executive of a multinational company, I’d be looking to regionalise and localise as much production as possible to hedge against a multipolar energy market. I’d also do more vertical integration to offset increased inflation in supply chains. If I were a US policymaker, I’d think about ways to increase North American shale production over the short to medium term (and offer Europeans a discount for it), while also speeding up the green transition. That’s yet another reason why Europeans shouldn’t be complaining about the Inflation Reduction Act, which subsidises clean energy production in the US. The rise of the petroyuan should be an incentive for both the US and Europe to move away from fossil fuels as quickly as they can.

Izgleda da će morati da se desi još neki akcident na instalacijama 

For one thing, the prospect of cheap energy is already luring western industrial businesses to China. Consider the recent move of Germany’s BASF to downsize its main plant in Ludwigshafen and shift chemical operations to Zhanjiang. This could be the beginning of what Pozsar calls a “farm to table” trend in which China tries to capture more value-added production locally, using cheap energy as a lure. (A number of European manufacturers have also increased jobs in the US because of lower energy costs there.)

Пакистан окажет прямую военную помощь Киеву - в Украину из пакистанского порта доставят 159 контейнеров с артиллерийскими снарядами и иными боеприпасами, пишет The Economic Times. Взамен Киев поможет Пакистану в модернизации вооружений https://t.co/SRGzoH584C

— DW на русском (@dw_russian) January 10, 2023

Kukavno punditstvo ugašeno 

Sanctions move China to replace chips supply chain
ASML CEO says what needs to be said about US pressure on the lithography front


The chief executive officer of ASML, the overwhelmingly dominant supplier of lithography equipment to the semiconductor industry, says that China will eventually learn how to make the semiconductor production equipment it cannot import due to sanctions imposed by the US.

In an interview with Bloomberg News published on January 25, Peter Wennink said, “If they cannot get those machines, they will develop them themselves. That will take time, but ultimately they will get there.”

He also said, “The more you put them under pressure, the more likely it is that they will double up their efforts.”

It is only natural that the Chinese would redouble their efforts in the face of American attempts to stifle their high-tech industry. They probably already have.

But the CEO of ASML implies something more: that the sanctions may lead to the creation of what the US is trying to prevent – an independent Chinese semiconductor industry.

The most important type of semiconductor production equipment subject to US export restrictions is EUV (Extreme Ultra-Violet) lithography, which is monopolized by ASML. In the company’s own words, EUV is “used in high-volume manufacturing to create the highly complex foundation layers of the most advanced microchips (7 nm, 5 nm and 3 nm nodes).”

It’s true that previous-generation DUV (Deep Ultra-Violet) lithography has been used by Chinese foundry SMIC to make 7-nm chips while Japanese equipment maker Nikon claims that its most advanced DUV lithography system, the NSR-S635E immersion scanner, can “ensure world-class device patterning and optimum fab productivity to fully satisfy 5 nm node requirements and beyond.”

However, the older technology is not efficient and is not market competitive.

In practical terms, 7-nm is the limit of DUV lithography. The 5-nm and 3-nm processes implemented by TSMC and Samsung – and the 2-nm processes they have under development – depend on EUV.

ASML is a Dutch company headquartered in Veldhoven, Netherlands, but the US can block the export of its EUV lithography systems to China because the light sources used in those systems come from Cymer, an American company that ASML acquired in 2013.

The Dutch government has supported this decision and ASML has complied.

ASML has not sold any EUV lithography systems to China. It seems unlikely but is perhaps impossible to confirm whether or not China has acquired one – or more than one – indirectly.

The US is now consulting with (pressuring, if you prefer) the Netherlands and Japan to join and help expand its sanctions to include DUV lithography and equipment used to support it. It is reported that an agreement could be announced within days, although the US may not get everything it is asking for. This is not clear.

It has been widely reported that if exports of DUV lithography systems to China were banned, China would not be able to produce most of the semiconductors in use today. But this is not the case.

Rather, China would not be able to add much new semiconductor production capacity without developing its own equipment. It would also have trouble maintaining the equipment it now has without assistance from the companies that made it.

The Netherlands and Japan have been resisting the US government’s attempts to drag them into its sanctions regime because they, like American companies, have a lot to lose.
...
Industry association SEMI has identified about 80 Chinese equipment companies working within the full range of semiconductor production technologies, including lithography.

Statistics from the China Electronic Production Equipment Industry Association (CEPEA) and other sources indicate that Chinese semiconductor production equipment makers have about 5% of the global market and 15% of the Chinese market. But none of them are first-rank worldwide vendors.

In fact, China is attempting to manufacture the entire semiconductor manufacturing supply chain and to make all types of semiconductors. In this regard, it is following in the footsteps of Japan, which tried and failed, then specialized in what it does best.

In an open free-trade economy, going it alone is so expensive that it does not make sense. But when confronted with ever-widening sanctions, it becomes a necessity. And for start-ups – and that’s what Chinese semiconductor equipment makers are – it may be the only chance they have to gain experience and achieve the quality and scale required to compete in the global market.

Sanctions are likely to accelerate the development of Chinese competitors who, if China’s 5G telecom, high-speed railway and space program are anything to go by, could eventually prove to be formidable competitors to ASML and other established semiconductor production equipment makers.

https://asiatimes.com/2023/01/sanctions-move-china-to-replace-chips-supply-chain/

That will take time, but ultimately they will get there.”

Dobro, naravno.

Air Force general predicts war with China in 2025, tells officers to prep by firing 'a clip' at a target, and 'aim for the head'
“I hope I am wrong. My gut tells me will fight in 2025," said Gen. Mike Minihan in a memo sent to the officers he commands and obtained by NBC News.

Jan. 28, 2023, 12:47 AM CET
By Courtney Kube and Mosheh Gains

A four-star Air Force general sent a memo on Friday to the officers he commands that predicts the U.S. will be at war with China in two years and tells them to get ready to prep by firing "a clip" at a target, and "aim for the head."

In the memo sent Friday and obtained by NBC News, Gen. Mike Minihan, head of Air Mobility Command, said, “I hope I am wrong. My gut tells me will fight in 2025.”

Air Mobility Command has nearly 50,000 service members and nearly 500 planes and is responsible for transport and refueling.

Minihan said in the memo that because both Taiwan and the U.S. will have presidential elections in 2024, the U.S. will be “distracted,” and Chinese President Xi Jinping will have an opportunity to move on Taiwan.

He lays out his goals for preparing, including building “a fortified, ready, integrated, and agile Joint Force Maneuver Team ready to fight and win inside the first island chain.” 

The signed memo is addressed to all air wing commanders in Air Mobility Command and other Air Force operational commanders, and orders them to report all major efforts to prepare for the China fight to Minihan by Feb. 28. 

During the month of February, he directs all AMC personnel to “fire a clip into a 7-meter target with the full understanding that unrepentant lethality matters most. Aim for the head.” He also orders all personnel to update their records and emergency contacts.

In March he directs all AMC personnel to “consider their personal affairs and whether a visit should be scheduled with their servicing base legal office to ensure they are legally ready and prepared.”

Minihan urges them to accept some risk in training. “Run deliberately, not recklessly,” he writes, but later adds, “If you are comfortable in your approach to training, then you are not taking enough risk.” 

He also provides a window into one capability the U.S. is considering for possible conflict with China — commercial drone swarms. He directs the KC-135 units to prepare for “delivering 100 off-the-shelf size and type UAVs from a single aircraft.” 

After publication of this article, a defense department official said, “These comments are not representative of the department’s view on China.”

An AMC spokesperson confirmed in a statement Friday that the memo is real: “This is an authentic internal memo from General Minihan addressed to his subordinate command teams. His order builds on last year’s foundational efforts by Air Mobility Command to ready the Mobility Air Forces for future conflict, should deterrence fail.”

Defense Department press secretary Brig. Gen. Patrick Ryder said in a statement, “The National Defense Strategy makes clear that China is the pacing challenge for the Department of Defense and our focus remains on working alongside allies and partners to preserve a peaceful, free and open Indo-Pacific.”

In March 2021, Adm. Philip Davidson, then commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, told a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing that “Taiwan is clearly one of [China’s] ambitions. 

"I think the threat is manifest during this decade, in fact, in the next six years,” said Davidson.

When asked earlier this month whether a Chinese invasion of Taiwan was imminent, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, said, “What we’re seeing recently, is some very provocative behavior on the part of China’s forces and their attempt to re-establish a new normal.”

“But whether or not that means that an invasion is imminent,” said Austin, “I seriously doubt that."

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/us-air-force-general-predicts-war-china-2025-memo-rcna67967

Остаће Амери без гаћа. Јер више не умеју да их направе.

Kevin Rudd misli da su najkriticnije 2029-2032. On doduse vise studira partiju nego vojsku (ovo je sigurno na osnovu obavestajnih podataka). Videcemo. 

50-50 chance da ce biti sukoba najskromnije mnijem.

Edit: doduše Šolc je bio u Kini, tako da šanse rastu 

Ali da, izbori na Tajvanu jesu jedna od kriticnih tacaka.

Baš me zanima kako Amerikanci planiraju da brane ostrvo koje niko ne napada i koje je od Kine udaljeno 180km a da ne uđu u totalni rat.

Da li znaju lokalni stručnjaci da li postoje dronovi/torpeda koji uništavaju pogonski mehanizam broda, tj. propeler, a ne potapaju sam brod? Jer, kao što smo svi videli, ništa lakše od toga.

Naravno da ce potapati kineska plovila u tom scenariju

Osnovno pitanje je da li ce gadjati mesta lansiranja kineskih raketa/projektila na mainland-u

Nije sporno da su brodovi kante na vodi koje je teže promašiti nego pogoditi, ali me zanima da li bi Amerikanci u slučaju pomorske blokade i zabrane komercijalnih letova prvi zapucali?

Erm, skromno mislim da ce Kina morati prva da zapuca ako krene da uspostavlja blokadu. Mislim, tesko mi je da zamislim da krenu da se spremaju da blokiraju i krenu da uspostavljaju blokadu a da USSs vec nisu tu.

Mada, ja defo nisam strucnjak za pomorske operacije

Meni je super recnik koji se koristi, a koji nije daleko od onoga sto smo vidjali u Hong Kongu. "Kriticni su tajvanski izbori", kazete? U kom tacno smislu? Da ne dodje partija koja nece rat sa Kinom, vec skladan suzivot? To bi stvarno bila katastrofa!

Pravo pitanje je dokle ce ova rospija Tsai Ingwen da nastavi da se userava u sve sporazume koje je Tajvan sklopio sa Kinom u proteklih 20 godina ne bi li izazvala jos malo krize i dobijala izbore za svoju nakaznu partiju na osnovu uspanicenih duhova. Na zavrsenim lokalnim izborima je izduvala i Kuomitang je pocistio "demokrate", ona je obecala da ce podneti ostavku, medjutim nista od toga? Ili je to bila vucicevska ostavka, "drzite me da ne odem"?

Продубљиваће се та сарадња са Филипинима. Они су одавно врло анти-кинески настројени, а власт им је про-америчка. Доба оног Дуертеа пролази.

Produbice Kina Filipine dodje li do neceg ozbiljnog.

https://aerostar.com/products/balloons-airships/thunderhead-balloons

Sad si ih uhvatio u laži!