Virus

Ajeje Brazorf wrote:varijanta virusa koje nema gotovo nigde

Ajeje Brazorf wrote:uopšte ne znamo koliko je zarazna i ima li ikakve šanse protiv današnjih dominantnih sojeva

So what do we know about this variant?

Preliminary data on pseudovirus (lab generated virus) shows decreased antibody neutralisation against sera from:

• vaccinated individuals
Alpha>Delta>B.1.621=Beta

• previously infected Delta
Beta =B.1.621 pic.twitter.com/8c4yBlI5pb

— Meaghan Kall (@kallmemeg) August 6, 2021

Carlos Migoya, CEO of Jackson Health, revealed that now 10% of COVID-positive patients whose results are being sequenced at the University of Miami’s pathology lab have a strain that originated out of Colombia.
“And here’s a real shocking thing that’s spreading in Colombia quite a bit,” Migoya told Local 10 News. “And they haven’t seen it anywhere else outside of Colombia. Well, guess what? In the last week, 10% of our patients had the Colombian variant. Why? Because of the travel between Colombia and Miami.”
That sequencing lab reports the following percentages of variant cases among COVID positives:
Delta 49%, Brazilian 26%, Colombian 10%

While just a month ago University [of Miami] researchers had identified just two cases of the Delta variant in Miami-Dade County, new sequencing data from the second week of July reveals that 63 percent of a sampling of COVID-19 patients in Jackson Memorial Health System and at University of Miami's UHealth Tower had the highly transmissible form of the virus. This sequencing data also revealed that 20 percent of patients had the Brazilian variant (now known as Gamma), 9 percent had the Colombian variant (B.1.621), which is dominating that country, and 3 percent had the Lambda variant that is currently the dominant COVID-19 strain in Peru.Dr. David Andrews
"The Colombian variant and the Lambda variant share many of the properties of the other bad players we have seen emerging—like Delta—such as increased transmissibility and a potential to escape the immunity provided by vaccines," said Dr. David Andrews, associate professor in the Department of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine, who is leading the University's effort to sequence COVID-19 positive samples.

in the current context there is no indication that it is out-competing Delta

Matthew Harrison -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst

Great. Good morning. Thanks for taking the question. A couple of related questions on boosters, if I may.

I guess first question is, maybe you could just put in context some of the information we're hearing from the FDA or the CDC, especially ACIP on their position on boosters and how you would expect that to evolve over the coming months. Second, could you comment on the potential for a multivalent booster and how you might be thinking about that in the context of the data you presented today, especially just on using a third dose of the existing shot? And then third, could you maybe just comment on your views of long-term virus evolution? Obviously, typically, viruses tend to evolve toward more infectious, but lower virulence. And so I'm wondering what your thoughts are on the long-term booster market, obviously, versus the sort of near-term booster market when infections may still be quite high? Thanks.

Stephen Hoge -- President

Sure. Thank you, Matthew. So let me try and take the first question first. So I think we are going to always defer to what's happening with the public health officials in terms of when they think the appropriate time to recommend a booster vaccine is necessary.

Where we see the data ourselves. I can't speak to the challenges they face. But what we see is the potential for waning immunity. In fact, if you look at -- back at our Vaccines Day, we had Professor Davenport come in and present work that he's done at University of New South Wales in Australia showing what he predicted back in March would be the picture for waning immunity from the vaccine.

It was recently published in Nature Medicine. I had a chance to open and it's looking remarkably prescient because the prediction he was making about the relative strength of the different vaccines suggested that small differences in efficacy would start to emerge to be larger differences in efficacy at about 200, 250 days as neutralizing antibody titers wane. And that may be what we're starting to see. And if you play that forward, if you assume he's been right about those predictions, then that picture continues and continues through a year with continued declining -- neutralizing antibody titers over that time.

And eventually, we therefore believe a real increase in breakthrough infections and disease even with vaccinated -- even with mRNA-1273. So we continue to want to be vigilant because that trend and those predictions, we think will come to four. And I think the Delta variant has taught us to also be incredibly humble in the face of the virus' ability to fight back and increase its transmission. I mean, I think most of us would have thought SARS-CoV-2 was a pretty good infector earlier this year.

Delta has shown us that it can make huge steps forward. And so for all those reasons, we think that it's appropriate to be cautious. Our approach is not to is to defer public health and when boosters are going to be necessary, but to bring forward the best option as we see them based on the science that we see in the evolving epidemiology. And that's where I think our conclusion today is given given beta, gamma and particularly delta, given the real-world efficacy that we're seeing out there against delta right after vaccination 1273 and the neutralizing titers that we can see that I presented today against delta with the 1273 prototype dose, that we feel pretty confident that, that's actually the right way to approach this round of the fight with the SARS-CoV-2 virus.

Now if I give to the second and third questions you asked, this is not the last round of the fight with SARS-CoV-2. We expect it to have at least a couple more rounds and maybe annually, we're just going to continue to fight this virus back. And that's where we think multivalent boosters continue to be an important part of the scientific strategy. As you look forward to, say, early 2022, delta is what we're fighting right now, but what are we going to be fighting in 2022? What new variant of concern? There will be one.

And I look at the evolving picture with Delta and the overall variance of concern, and there's a couple of specific things that jump out at me. There are now I think five-point mutations in the various variants of concerns, three of them present in beta and gamma. We've talked about them, the 417, 484, and 501 mutations. And now there's two mutations in the receptor binding domain in the delta strain at 452 and 478.

And those five look like the ways in which the virus has tried to step away from or neutralizing community with our vaccine immune innovation. If you think about how this might play forward, it seems logical to us that those three mutations present in the beta, gamma line and those two mutations present in the delta might find some way to combine in new and potentially scary ways. And if that came with the increased transmissibility, force of infection that delta can achieve, that might be a significant threat. And so we view our multivalent platform as the best place for us to try and anticipate that threat.

And logically, for us right now, that would be looking at a beta, gamma or a beta variant a concern combined with a delta variant concern and evaluating that going forward. And that's the 213 program that we're going to be looking at. But we don't think that for this cycle. We do really believe that 1273, a booster dose will hold up against delta right now.

The long-term virus evolution question is a great one. And I would say we just got to be humble. We've not faced a variant, a virus quite like this. And again, I don't think any of us would have predicted the steep change in transmissibility that was seen with delta over the last five, six months.

And so I wouldn't rule out that the virus doesn't have that kind of surprises in its future. But if you take a very, very long view, five, 10 years view, I would say that we continue to think the model for what SARS-CoV-2 will look like in terms of an endemic market is probably predicted by other respiratory infections, the endemic coronaviruses, like OC43, which every year have rates of reinfection in adult populations and young kids every year results in hospitalizations and some deaths, including in this country. And we, therefore, believe there will be a long-term endemic market. The virulence of those viruses, as you pointed to, is lower, and that's good news.

Hopefully, it's not as big of a threat as we're seeing right now. But we need to be cautious and humble because SARS-CoV-2 keeps surprising us. And maybe that virulence will be something more substantial than we see in the endemic coronavirus. So we're hopeful that it will wait, that virulence will decline, but we really do believe the virus is here to stay for the long term.

And therefore, there's going to be a need to regularly boost particularly high-risk older populations against SARS-CoV-2 into the future. Hopefully that answers your questions.

Update: Child hospitalizations are at their highest point of the whole pandemic, with >1450 children hospitalized in the past week https://t.co/wmad4Nyo7t pic.twitter.com/0o4F6IgyZ7

— Julia Raifman (@JuliaRaifman) August 7, 2021

Doherty Institute Modelling supposes that the Delta variant is approximately as virulent as Alpha; data from Canada suggests in fact it is twice as likely to lead to ICU admission and fifty percent more likely to result in death than earlier variants.https://t.co/1h8ukrQmgL pic.twitter.com/8cyvV6XzqF

— Dr Rob Whitehurst (@OYCar) August 5, 2021

The Delta variant is highly transmissible; within 5 weeks of first identification, the Delta variant became the dominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in Mesa County, Colorado and is also now the predominant variant in the United States (5). Higher ICU admissions and case fatality ratios in Mesa County compared with those in the rest of the state are consistent with previous reports that infections with the Delta variant might result in more severe outcomes (6,7).

In Texas, an 11-month-old with COVID had to be sent to a hospital 150 miles away due to lack of bed space in Houston's pediatric hospitals.

"We looked at all five major pediatric hospital groups and none [had beds] available."https://t.co/92XXj0tfHs

— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) August 6, 2021

MNE wrote:kako bi ovaj govnar od nikolaidisa hvalio sezonu da su njegovi ostali na vlasti

It seems to me, Delta covid kills quick. Last year patients were in ICUs for weeks and even months. Now its days. Maybe hours. 4 crash carts are used in half of a 12 hr shift & another half still to go #GetVaccinated #WearAMask pic.twitter.com/DveDgesdeS

— Natalia Solenkova, MD PhD (@SolNataMD) August 5, 2021

Multisystem. Shorter period from the symptoms. They clot, bleed, septic, with diarrhea, dehydrated, with shut kidneys, electrolyte abnormalities all at once, heart attack, bradicardia, etc. The lungs might be okay on presentation & 24 hrs later they are destroyed

— Natalia Solenkova, MD PhD (@SolNataMD) August 5, 2021

"Here we are in modern America with vaccines and it's incredible to think that's where it's at right now." @mtosterholm

— The Beat with Ari Melber on MSNBC (@TheBeatWithAri) August 5, 2021

U hotelu Gejzer u Sijarinskoj Banji je 68 osoba pozitivno na koronavirus, a testiranje je u nedelju vršio leskovački Zavod za javno zdravlje.

Rezultati su pokazali da je pozitivno 54 gostiju i 14 zaposlenih, saznaje Regionalna informativna agencija JUGpress.

Testirano je ukupno 179 osoba – 144 gosta i 35 zaposlenih.

Među pozitivnima 13 osoba ima simptome, a ostali su bez ikakvih simptoma za sada.

Među pozitivnima je 57 vakcinisanih.

Nije testirano više od 100 gostiju na privatnoj proslavi dečjeg rođendana, koju je u hotelu u subotu organizovao pomoćnik predsednika opštine.

Na proslavi je bio i sam predsednik opštine Nebojša Arsić, koji je lekar po zanimanju i komandant Štaba za vanredne situacije u opštini.

Marius Lăcătuș wrote:ja sam mislio da si ti tvrdio da je bolje biti pijan nego star