Virus

LONG COVID THREAD:

The people running the BBC Horizon "Great British Intelligence Test" challenge on over 80,000 people took the opportunity to see if they could detect any differences by whether people had had covid or not...

— Prof. Christina Pagel (@chrischirp) July 23, 2021

3. What they found was significant cognitive deficit for people who'd had covid compared to people that hadn't, after controlling for things like age, education, sex, first language etc.

The degree of deficit was worse the more severe the initial covid infection had been. pic.twitter.com/0KxsWTOFv9

— Prof. Christina Pagel (@chrischirp) July 23, 2021

6. The authors put the results into context - the average deficit experienced by hospitalised covid patients (0.47 for ventilator, 0.26 no ventilator) were worse than average deficit by people who'd suffered a stroke (0.24). pic.twitter.com/3i7dgklL78

— Prof. Christina Pagel (@chrischirp) July 23, 2021

is not included in the daily dashboard figures. We know people are being reinfected. And if the pandemic were to be spreading - which it might be - from first infected school children to second infected adults, we would not see that change in real time. This is profoundly…

— Robert Peston (@Peston) July 25, 2021

are compiled in this way, but no one at the top of Public Health England or the Department of Health and Social Care will authorise the change. Hello @sajidjavid

— Robert Peston (@Peston) July 25, 2021

PS in other respect, autumn booster jabs and so on, government policy is conditioned by the serious risk of reinfection. So just so bonkers to exclude re-infections from the daily published infection figures

— Robert Peston (@Peston) July 25, 2021

Mór Thököly wrote:Pratim trend hospitalizacija u Evropi.

The other thing I’d say is a lot of people discount long COVID, but that’s a big deal. If we do get to 200,000 cases a day, that’s a lot of long COVID.

- From what I can tell, estimates of that prevalence are really all over the place — some studies suggest rates as high as 30 percent or even 50 percent of all cases, but those don’t seem to me to be very good surveys and would suggest something like 50 million Americans are dealing with a debilitating chronic condition already. Some other estimates are very, very low — considerably under one percent, even. How do you ballpark? 

Ten percent. Probably it’s either high single digits or low double digits is the real deal. When you get north of that, with those surveys showing higher figures, those people are not necessarily dealing with serious symptoms for, say, a year plus — they’re getting better, or their symptoms aren’t as worrisome. They’re not as debilitated. But for the real-deal cases — the ones that can’t work, the real, significant brain fog, the ones that really are suffering — it’s probably one out of ten.

It’s a nasty, horrible condition for some people. It doesn’t get enough respect still.

The one other point is this breakthrough-infection thing is probably worse than we have estimated. I don’t mean for death and hospitalizations, but in terms of the ability of the disease to burn through the vaccinated to make them get them infected — it’s not looking as good as we’d hoped, I think it is fair to say.

And there were very relatively few deaths and hospitalizations in those trials, 75,000 people in the two trials, Moderna and Pfizer — there were like nine deaths in the Pfizer trial and 30 in the Moderna.

But what you’re onto is a really big deal because the vaccines are basically not living up to the trials in terms of symptomatic disease, though they are offering great protection against what the trials didn’t test — death and hospitalization. We’re getting the same 90-some percent reduction of those end points. But with Delta we’re seeing a drop-down of protection in symptomatic disease and transmission. It is being transmitted. It is getting into people who’ve been fully vaccinated.

Looking ahead to the fall, I’m optimistic. Delta will have passed through by then — it’ll pass through by late August, or September, if it looks like India or the U.K. or Netherlands. We’ll have a rapid descent, and it’ll burn through. We’ll still have lots of COVID in this country, but it’ll be back to where it was before Delta came. It will be at a lower level. The only question is, is there something lurking that’s worse than Delta? There’s no sign of it yet, but there’s too much of this virus circulating to be confident — too many people in Indonesia and sub-Saharan Africa who are getting sick. But I hope not. I’m hoping that this is as bad as it gets. But if you talk to evolutionary biologists, they’ll tell you the variants are going to get worse.

UK Covid cases drop for fifth day in a row https://t.co/2npO9bTsV2

— Evening Standard (@standardnews) July 25, 2021

bemty wrote:poslednje mere su ukinute tek pre neki dan pa ostaje da se vidi kako ce brojke izgledati kroz nedelju-dve, ali svejedno, ovo opadanje koje se sad desilo, se nije desilo zbog smanjivanja kontakta medju ljudima.