Virus

Manaus, the metropolis with collective immunity that cannot be found

The Amazonian metropolis of Manaus (2 million inhabitants), in Brazil, is a sentinel city for monitoring the pandemic, due to the extremely high and uncontrolled circulation of Sars CoV-2 within its population basin. A team of Brazilian researchers estimates, in a study published on January 15 in Science, that three-quarters (76%) of the population was infected as of October, seven months after the virus arrived in the city. But despite this very high attack rate, the epidemic has been experiencing a significant resurgence since mid-December. The NPR site echoes this, among others.

Why this is worrying. Classical models predict a threshold of herd immunity to Covid-19, beyond which the epidemic must begin to decline for lack of hosts to infect, around two-thirds of the population. Manaus is therefore a counter-example, since this threshold is largely exceeded. As two Scottish epidemiologists note in a commentary also published in Science, if these studies are reliable, it could indicate that the threshold is higher than expected or that the immunity of infected people has declined over the months. A prospect possibly related to the appearance of the new Brazilian variant, more contagious and rapidly spreading in the Amazonian metropolis since December.

rumbeando wrote:Manaus u Brazilu je u oktobru po nekim istraživanjima imao 76% preležalih, a novi talas je u punom zamahu od decembra.

Manaus, the metropolis with collective immunity that cannot be found

...samo da javim da je krenuo drugi talas u Juznoj Americi.

Bogota je u karantinu, popunjenost jedinica intenzivne nege 95%.

Mi [u Ekvadoru] nismo u karantinu, al zato u Gvajakilu i Kitu smo na listi cekanja za jedinice intenzivne nege.

Javljaju da je kolaps u Peruu.

Da l je u pitanju Britanac, ne znamo.

China builds hospital in 5 days after surge in virus cases
BY JOE MCDONALD - ASSOCIATED PRESS, JANUARY 16, 2021 05:45 AM

China on Saturday finished building a 1,500-room hospital for COVID-19 patients to fight a surge in infections the government said are harder to contain and that it blamed on infected people or goods from abroad.
The hospital is one of six with a total of 6,500 rooms being built in Nangong, south of Beijing in Hebei province, the official Xinhua News Agency said.
China had largely contained the coronavirus that first was detected in the central city of Wuhan in late 2019 but has suffered a surge of cases since December.
A total of 645 people are being treated in Nangong and the Hebei provincial capital, Shijiazhuang, Xinhua said. A 3,000-room hospital is under construction in Shijiazhuang.
Virus clusters also have been found in Beijing and the provinces of Heilongjiang and Liaoning in the northeast and Sichuan in the southwest.
The latest infections spread unusually fast, the National Health Commission said.
“It is harder to handle,” a Commission statement said. “Community transmission already has happened when the epidemic is found, so it is difficult to prevent.”
The Commission blamed the latest cases on people or goods arriving from abroad. It blamed “abnormal management” and “inadequate protection of workers” involved in imports but gave no details.
“They are all imported from abroad. It was caused by entry personnel or contaminated cold chain imported goods,” said the statement.
The Chinese government has suggested the disease might have originated abroad and publicized what it says is the discovery of the virus on imported food, mostly frozen fish, though foreign scientists are skeptical.
Also Saturday, the city government of Beijing said travelers arriving in the Chinese capital from abroad would be required to undergo an additional week of “medical monitoring” after a 14-day quarantine but gave no details.
Nationwide, the Health Commission reported 130 new confirmed cases in the 24 hours through midnight Friday. It said 90 of those were in Hebei.
On Saturday, the Hebei government reported 32 additional cases since midnight, the Shanghai news outlet The Paper reported.
In Shijiazhuang, authorities have finished construction of 1,000 rooms of the planned hospital, state TV said Saturday. Xinhua said all the facilities are due to be completed within a week.
A similar program of rapid hospital construction was launched by the ruling Communist Party at the start of the outbreak last year in Wuhan.
More than 10 million people in Shijiazhuang underwent virus tests by late Friday, Xinhua said, citing a deputy mayor, Meng Xianghong. It said 247 locally transmitted cases were found.
Meanwhile, researchers sent by the World Health Organization were in Wuhan preparing to investigate the origins of the virus. The team, which arrived Thursday, was under a two-week quarantine but was due to talk with Chinese experts by video link.
The team's arrival was held up for months by diplomatic wrangling that prompted a rare public complaint by the head of the WHO.
That delay, and the secretive ruling party’s orders to scientists not to talk publicly about the disease, have raised questions about whether Beijing might try to block discoveries that would hurt its self-proclaimed status as a leader in the anti-virus battle.

Vilmos Tehenészfiú wrote:

rumbeando wrote:Manaus u Brazilu je u oktobru po nekim istraživanjima imao 76% preležalih, a novi talas je u punom zamahu od decembra.

The jungle near Manaus
The Amazonas full of piranhas
The birds of paradise
Disappear into the green desert
For years and years
We are hungry and desperate
For the only thing worth living
The excess
We end our Great Mission
Exhausted and sad
And there is no hope left
When suddenly
In a cloud of golden smog
The father of excess
Jumps out of the water of
The Amazonas full of piranhas
And screams to the lost souls
What are you doing at the Amazonas
Leave Manaus full of piranhas [burp!]
You will not find excess in the jungle
And then
He opened the green curtain
Made of fleshy leaves and said
I show you the excess of the
Asphalt a Montmartre
The excess of the belly-dance
In Abu Dhabi
And the excess of the everlasting night in Manhattan [burp!]
Are you ready for the sensation del tango a Rosario?
Leave him, the gorilla
Leave the jungle of the Amazonas
Leave Manaus full of piranhas
And follow father excess.

A highly infectious mutation of the novel coronavirus first recorded in the United Kingdom last month has spread to dozens of countries, according to the World Health Organization (WHO).
Since being reported to the WHO on December 14, the UK-identified variant VOC 202012/01 has been found in 50 countries, territories and areas, the United Nations body said in its weekly report on the pandemic, published on Tuesday.
Test results showed the age and sex distribution of the UK-identified variant were similar to that of other circulating variants.
Meanwhile, a similar South African-identified strain, 501Y.V2, has been found in 20 countries, territories and areas after first being reported to the WHO on December 18, according to the WHO.
“From preliminary and ongoing investigations in South Africa, it is possible that the 501Y.V2 variant is more transmissible than variants circulating in South Africa previously,” the agency’s weekly report said.
“Moreover, while this new variant does not appear to cause more severe illness, the observed rapid increases in case numbers has placed health systems under pressure.”
The geographical spread of both variants is likely underestimated, said the WHO.

Naravno, samo on pic.twitter.com/9XgEEFFZru

— NemanjaS (@_nemanjas_) January 16, 2021

Talason wrote:ovo za ICU ne znam kako da protumačim, podatak je validan samo ako su na ICU stavljali sve kojima je bio potreban

intensive care unit or critical care unit

Hospital facility for care of critically ill patients at a more intensive level than is needed by other patients.

Staffed by specialized personnel, the intensive care unit contains a complex assortment of monitors and life-support equipment that can sustain life in once-fatal situations, including adult respiratory distress syndrome, kidney failure, multiple organ failure, and sepsis (see septicemia). 

intensive care unit
Definition: a hospital facility for provision of intensive nursing and medical care of critically ill patients, characterized by the high quality and quantity of continuous nursing and medical supervision and by use of sophisticated monitoring and resuscitative equipment; may be organized for the care of specific patient groups, neonatal or newborn ICU, neurologic ICU, pulmonary ICU.

Synonym(s): critical care unit

[size=45]- Velika je verovatnoća da će trenutne vakcine biti delotvorne i na ove mutacije. Virus mora baš mnogo da se promeni da bi cepivo postalo neefikasno. Veći će problem biti kada stanovništvo imunizacijom stekne imunitet, jer će tada korona morati ozbiljnije da se menja da bi zaobišla antitela.[/size]

Kirko Skaddeng wrote:Šekler ponovo izmišlja novu nauku

[size=45]- Velika je verovatnoća da će trenutne vakcine biti delotvorne i na ove mutacije. Virus mora baš mnogo da se promeni da bi cepivo postalo neefikasno. Veći će problem biti kada stanovništvo imunizacijom stekne imunitet, jer će tada korona morati ozbiljnije da se menja da bi zaobišla antitela.[/size]