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    Korona i pare

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    Post by Guest Tue Apr 28, 2020 7:06 pm

    The Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB), a leading economic indicator created by the American Chemistry Council (ACC; Washington, D.C.; www.americanchemistry.com), fell 5.5 percent in April on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis following a downwardly revised 2.9 percent decline in March. On a year-over-year (Y/Y) basis, the barometer fell 7.3 percent in April.

    [Source: American Chemistry Council]

    The unadjusted data shows a 6.7 percent decline in April following an 8.9 percent decline in March and a 1.0 percent decline in February, ACC said. The diffusion index slumped from 47 percent to 35 percent in April. The diffusion index marks the number of positive contributors relative to the total number of indicators monitored. The CAB reading for March was revised downward by 1.04 points and that for February was revised upward by 0.07 points.

    “The latest CAB reading is consistent with a recession,” said Kevin Swift, chief economist at ACC. “The declines of April and March are the most pronounced, pervasive and persistent in the post-World War II period.”

    The CAB has four main components, each consisting of a variety of indicators: 1) production; 2) equity prices; 3) product prices; and 4) inventories and other indicators.

    Production-related indicators generally declined in April. Trends in construction-related resins, pigments and related performance chemistry were generally negative. Plastic resins used in packaging and for consumer and institutional applications were mixed. Performance chemistry was negative and U.S. exports were weak. Equity prices are improving. Product and input prices were negative. Inventory and other supply chain indicators were negative.

    The CAB is a leading economic indicator derived from a composite index of chemical industry activity. Due to its early position in the supply chain, chemical industry activity has been found to consistently lead the U.S. economy’s business cycle, and this barometer can be used to determine turning points and likely trends in the broader economy. Month-to-month movements can be volatile, so a three-month moving average of the CAB reading is provided. This provides a more consistent and illustrative picture of national economic trends.

    Applying the CAB back to 1912, it has been shown to provide a lead of two to 14 months, with an average lead of eight months at cycle peaks as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. The median lead was also eight months. At business cycle troughs, the CAB leads by one to seven months, with an average lead of four months. The median lead was three months. The CAB is rebased to the average lead (in months) of an average 100 in the base year (the year 2012 was used) of a reference time series. The latter is the Federal Reserve’s Industrial Production Index.
    Јанош Винету

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    Post by Јанош Винету Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:30 pm

    Већина економиста предвиђа једнократни пад бруто друштвеног производа од 10% процентних поена у односу на прошлу годину.

    10% у односу на прошлу годину је одлична вест, то је пад који углавном сви предвиђају. Попијеш једнократни пад од 10%, без већег губитка инфраструктуре или радне снаге, можеш да се вратиш и наставиш даље.

    Проблем је што ова крива изузетно личи на криву из 2008, тј. глобално стрмопижђење у дуготрајну рецесију чије дубине тек треба да досегнемо.

    Korona i pare - Page 30 Short-term%20CAB%20for%20web
    Nektivni Ugnelj

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    Post by Nektivni Ugnelj Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:35 pm

    Nije ovo uopste problem, ovo bi bio fantastican razvoj situacije. Da bude isto kao 2008/9 i da pevamo. Ali tesko.
    Anonymous
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    Post by Guest Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:50 pm

    ovo neće biti toliko pad koliko restruktuiranje
    Nektivni Ugnelj

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    Post by Nektivni Ugnelj Wed Apr 29, 2020 9:55 am

    Bio u Veru jutros u 8.15. Odmah usao, na kasi drugi. 90% ljudi nosi maske unutra. Imam srece sa najblizim supermarketom. Za sada.
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    Post by Guest Wed Apr 29, 2020 10:19 am

    Ja bio jutros po gradu, daj bože da napolju trećina nosi maske.
    Nektivni Ugnelj

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    Post by Nektivni Ugnelj Wed Apr 29, 2020 10:41 am

    E, napolju je druga prica. Samo, napolju mogu da idem po kolovozu, sto je u radnji nesto komplikovanje  Korona i pare - Page 30 1861198401

    Moraju da uvedu obavezno nosenje maski u zatvorenim prostorijama. To je bukvalno minimum minimuma.
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    Post by MNE Wed Apr 29, 2020 11:41 am

    kod nas je to uvedeno ali tek od 4. maja, valjda do 4. maja virus nije opasan a od 4. maja jeste (hint: montefarm treba da proda jedno par miliona maski da im ne propadne biznis)
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    Post by Guest Wed Apr 29, 2020 5:15 pm

    "Preko firme koja se bavi uzgojem i preradom voća i povrća - FH Srebrena malina - uvezeno je i uvest će se ukupno 100 respiratora iz Kine za 10,5 miliona KM. Ako je vjerovati šifri koja se nalazi na kutijama koje su stigle iz Kine, radi se o ovim respiratorima.
    Jedan respirator na internet stranici košta 3000 dolara sa porezom što znači da je cijena za 100 komada 300.000 dolara, odnosno ukupno 540.000 KM bez prevoza i carine.
    Ministrica finansija u tehničkom mandatu i komandantica Federalnog štaba Civilne zaštite, Jelka Miličević, naravno ne zna tko je odobrio ovu nabavku. Premijer FBiH u tehničkom mandatu, Fadil Novalić, neće da nam pojasni kako je malinarska firma najbolja za nabavku sofisticiranih medicinskih uređaja

    Korona i pare - Page 30 Fena_respirator
    Spoiler:
    disident

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    Post by disident Wed Apr 29, 2020 5:29 pm

    József Csuhay wrote:
    "Preko firme koja se bavi uzgojem i preradom voća i povrća - FH Srebrena malina - uvezeno je i uvest će se ukupno 100 respiratora iz Kine za 10,5 miliona KM. Ako je vjerovati šifri koja se nalazi na kutijama koje su stigle iz Kine, radi se o ovim respiratorima.
    Jedan respirator na internet stranici košta 3000 dolara sa porezom što znači da je cijena za 100 komada 300.000 dolara, odnosno ukupno 540.000 KM bez prevoza i carine.
    Ministrica finansija u tehničkom mandatu i komandantica Federalnog štaba Civilne zaštite, Jelka Miličević, naravno ne zna tko je odobrio ovu nabavku. Premijer FBiH u tehničkom mandatu, Fadil Novalić, neće da nam pojasni kako je malinarska firma najbolja za nabavku sofisticiranih medicinskih uređaja

    Korona i pare - Page 30 Fena_respirator
    Spoiler:
    Neverovatno mi je da jos neko zna za šaka nož
    Korona i pare - Page 30 7yhxok7dz5f41


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    Mr.Pink

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    Post by Mr.Pink Wed Apr 29, 2020 5:31 pm

    moz se nadje na limundu za 1 crvenu


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    radikalni patrijarhalni feminista

    smrk kod dijane hrk
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    Post by Guest Wed Apr 29, 2020 5:32 pm

    Mr.Pink wrote:moz se nadje na limundu za 1 crvenu

    Daj link Korona i pare - Page 30 899159439
    disident

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    Post by disident Wed Apr 29, 2020 5:35 pm

    Daj stvarno, jurio sam repliku ali su trazili sulude pare za izradu. Originalan vrv kosta nekoliko hiljada evra pa navise


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    Post by Mr.Pink Wed Apr 29, 2020 5:35 pm

    he he

    sad baš gledam i nema nigde u ponudi, ali prati. izlete s vremena na vreme zanimljivi predmeti za smešne pare


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    radikalni patrijarhalni feminista

    smrk kod dijane hrk
    Anonymous
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    Post by Guest Wed Apr 29, 2020 5:42 pm

    Ne, imam trofejni M48 bajunet sa improvizovanom drškom, znam kome ću da ga odnesem i nadam se da će moći da odradi poso kako valja. Kako se ovoga nisam ranije sjetio Korona i pare - Page 30 3274312807

    Korona i pare - Page 30 PXRiJzZ


    Fala Fikretu, Fahrudinu i Fadilu.  3 N F Korona i pare - Page 30 4101625831
    Mr.Pink

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    Post by Mr.Pink Wed Apr 29, 2020 5:45 pm

    https://www.limundo.com/kupovina/Kolekcionarstvo/Militarija/Drugi-svetski-rat/Partizanski-noz/88787901

    evo ga


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    Post by Mr.Pink Wed Apr 29, 2020 5:46 pm

    samo da vam kazem da postoji nekoliko razlicitih kalupa i verzija


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    radikalni patrijarhalni feminista

    smrk kod dijane hrk
    Mr.Pink

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    Post by Mr.Pink Wed Apr 29, 2020 5:48 pm

    https://www.limundo.com/kupovina/Kolekcionarstvo/Militarija/Drugi-svetski-rat/Partizanski-noz/88787933


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    radikalni patrijarhalni feminista

    smrk kod dijane hrk
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    Post by Guest Wed Apr 29, 2020 5:51 pm

    Sviđa mi se ali nema futrolu, sad samo da smislim dizajn drške. 

    Izvinjavam se zbog trolovanja, neću više.
    disident

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    Post by disident Wed Apr 29, 2020 5:57 pm

    Mr.Pink wrote:samo da vam kazem da postoji nekoliko razlicitih kalupa i verzija
    Originali su svi jedinstveni koliko se secam, a jedan primerak  sam video u vojnom muzeuju u beogradu.
    Korona i pare - Page 30 113385_tmb_49314242_MUZEJI%202012%20220


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    Što se ostaloga tiče, smatram da Zapad treba razoriti
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    disident

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    Post by disident Wed Apr 29, 2020 5:59 pm

    Korona i pare - Page 30 3-ec39374839


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    Post by kondo Wed Apr 29, 2020 7:36 pm

    disi brate razumeš se u noževe što si se ovoliko usro od korone

    izbodi je bajonetom


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    Дакле, волео бих да се ЈСД Партизан угаси, али не и да сви (или било који) гробар умре.
    disident

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    Post by disident Wed Apr 29, 2020 7:47 pm

    Marius Lăcătuș wrote:disi brate razumeš se u noževe što si se ovoliko usro od korone

    izbodi je bajonetom
    Cim skupim pet iljada za ovu repliku


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    Što se ostaloga tiče, smatram da Zapad treba razoriti
    Jedini proleter Burundija
    Pristalica krvne osvete
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    Post by Guest Wed Apr 29, 2020 11:55 pm

    The U.S. economy in the first quarter shrank at its fastest pace since the last recession as the coronavirus pandemic shut down large parts of the country, signaling the end of the longest economic expansion on record.
    ...
    Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services produced across the economy, contracted at a seasonally and inflation adjusted annual rate of 4.8% in the first three months, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. The decline marks the beginning of a near-certain recession, economists say, and is the biggest drop in quarterly economic output since the fourth quarter of 2008.
    ...
    Forecasters expect a much larger contraction in the second quarter, producing the two consecutive quarters of decline that commonly define a recession. Most economists expect a rebound in the second half of the year.

    “The weakness was only in the last three weeks of March so there’s a lot more to come,” said James Sweeney, chief economist at Credit Suisse, adding that “we are headed for the largest contraction in GDP since the Great Depression.

    Data company IHS Markit expects GDP to decline at a 37% annual rate from April to June, which would represent the biggest drop since quarterly records began in 1947.
    ...
    Personal consumption, the economy’s bulwark, fell at a 7.6% rate, the steepest drop since the second quarter of 1980. Spending on services—from haircuts to legal advice—accounts for nearly half of total GDP. It fell at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 10.2%, the largest decline since the agency began compiling quarterly statistics in 1947, led by a decrease in health care services.

    Goods spending fell by 1.3%, as lower spending on new cars was offset by stockpiling on items such as food and household essentials as people stocked up for the pandemic.
    ...

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/first-quarter-gdp-us-growth-coronavirus-11588123665?mod=hp_lead_pos1
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    Post by Guest Thu Apr 30, 2020 12:23 am

    Germany faces huge economic slump due to coronavirus pandemic

    The coronavirus pandemic will hit Germany's economy harder than any other calamity in decades, according to Economy Minister Peter Altmaier. An expert told DW that projections of recovery in 2021 were "wishful thinking."

    With the coronavirus pandemic unleashing a wave of job losses, bankruptcies and factory closures across the world, Germany's GDP is due to shrink 6.3% in 2020, the government announced on Wednesday.

    "We will experience the worst recession in the history of the Federal Republic" which was founded in 1949, Economy Minister Peter Altmaier said.

    The economic blow would surpass the one left by the global crisis of 2009, which saw Germany's economy shrink by over 5%.

    Short-hours scheme for German workers

    Altmaier said the nation's economy is set to hit its lowest point before the end of June and then start growing again with 5.2% growth projected in 2021. He also warned that the government cannot restart the economy with a single stroke and risk the success achieved in combating the pandemic.

    "Only if we lift economic and social restrictions step-by-step, and with a sense of proportion, can we start with the slow recovery in the second half of the year," Altmaier said.

    Germany's export-oriented economy is also set to shed hundreds of thousands of jobs before the end of the year, putting the jobless rate at about 5.8% or around 2.62 million compared to its previous average of 2.27 million. Berlin has pushed multiple measures to mitigate the fallout.

    According to Altmaier, around 3 million workers have already been placed on a short-time work scheme that sees employees reduced hours to avoid layoffs and the government boosting the workers' salaries.

    'Those are not really forecasts'

    Commenting on Altmaier's statement on Wednesday, however, the head of the German Institute of Economic Research (DIW) dismissed them as "wishful thinking."

    "Those are not really forecasts, those are scenarios... scenarios assuming that there is no second wave of infections, assuming that there is no new lockdown in the future," Marcel Fratzscher told DW. "That's wishful thinking — that the economy will recover next year. Clearly the answer to how will the economy get out of recession depends very much on the pandemic itself."

    At the same time, Fratzscher praised the government's approach to helping mitigate the impact, saying that the Cabinet "has already done a lot in this first stage of this lockdown."

    "Hardly any government in the world has spent more money on stabilizing the economy, providing support to companies, direct financial transfers, huge guarantees for bank loans, particularly to small-to-medium-sized enterprises."

    Several large companies, including Adidas, Condor airline, and TUI travel company have already taken out massive government-backed loans. The country's flagship carrier Lufthansa is still negotiation its bailout.

    https://www.dw.com/en/germany-faces-huge-economic-slump-due-to-coronavirus-pandemic/a-53286176

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