Korona i pare

https://www.ft.com/content/a8d31354-6ce6-11ea-89df-41bea055720b


We may have to prepare for a longer coronavirus crisis

An outbreak lasting more than a few months would require extending short-term responses

LAURENCE BOONE
The writer is chief economist at the OECD

Policymakers are braced for a stormy quarter as the Covid-19 pandemic intensifies. But what if the outbreak lasts more than just one quarter?

The economic reactions of individual countries have been strong, swift and targeted to buffer businesses and households affected by confinement measures. Countries are implementing — albeit with varying scope and speed — short-term working schemes for employees, extended to the self-employed, to preserve worker and household income. They are providing credit lines, tax relief and mortgage holidays to help businesses weather the storm, all the while directing huge resources to the health sector. Governments have poured very large amounts into these schemes. In some cases, they have not set limits. And rightly so.

Yet, financial markets have reacted tepidly, destabilised by the immense uncertainty regarding the evolution of the virus, the largely uncoordinated global health response and its economic and financial consequences. Because of this uncertainty, markets are unable to price risks or economic expectations. Some scientists suggest the outbreak may recur later in the year, either because of an uncoordinated response or if no vaccine or cure is available.

An outbreak lasting more than a few months raises questions about how short-term, targeted responses, de­signed for a temporary shock, must be amended or strengthened in the context of prolonged weak growth, de­pressed corporate valuations, low employment, high debt and low inflation.

On the health front, more financial, logistical and manufacturing resources would need to be allocated to materials production. If the virus continues to spread across borders, increased international co-ordination and information-sharing will be crucial. More resources for data collection and sharing, research, machinery and equipment, and support for emerging and low income countries, will be of the utmost importance. Creating and expanding dedicated health funds at the regional level are steps in the right direction. But pooling forces globally will also be essential. Serious money and human capital is needed. But first and foremost, advanced economies, starting with the EU, need to agree a common framework for quarantine, containment and testing policy — and then implement it together to avoid prolonging the crisis and returning waves of infections.


On the economic front, the issue is that a temporary loss of output may turn into a longer one. In financial terms, preventing the shock from shifting from a liquidity one to a solvency one, may require even more forceful policies. First, do no harm: governments should continue to support the private sector, including by taking equity stakes, and to bolster employment. This will require a large increase in public spending and investment at a time of falling revenues. Ultra-accommodative monetary policy will continue to help in addressing rising debt, while co-ordination between central banks can provide international liquidity. Government guarantees may, in turn, become government ownership of some sectors of the economy.


The hefty demands on government finance need not result in unsustainable issuance of debt that would spook markets: it requires new and creative thinking on macroeconomic policy issues.

Markets should be left with no doubt that all countries afflicted will have the necessary ammunitions. The European Central Bank’s €750bn corporate and sovereign bond buying is a good move. It will also be timely to remove the issuer and issue ceiling on ECB bond purchases and finally use jointly issued European bonds to raise funds. Multilateral institutions are likely to need additional funds to support emerging countries.

The next steps demand enhanced co-ordination of fiscal and monetary policy. Central banks directly crediting firms and household accounts may raise considerable challenges, including democratic ones, and be impractical.

Another option would be for fiscal support to be financed by a permanent increase in money supply, created by central banks, which could substitute for debt-financed programmes. This approach should not raise fears of inflation as long as growth remains below potential, and central bank independence is respected. And it would reassure markets about the capacity of governments to support the economy.

A number of steps in this direction have been taken in the past few weeks. As the virus spreads around the world, co-ordinated and syn­­chronised monetary and fiscal action will become more and more important.

Janko Suvar wrote:ne znam pravila za druge banke ali verovatno je slicno. 

U Erste banci uzmes (sa sajta ili u filijali) ovlascenje koje onda potpisete ti i penzioner. Odes sa tim ovlascenjem i obe licne karte u banku i tamo podignes penziju. 

Takodje penzioner moze da trazi od banke putem mejla, da mu dostave penziju na kucnu adresu, to ce uraditi posta, zajedno sa dokumentom koji potvrduje da je isplacena koje penzioner onda potpise kad podigne. 

Ako ima karticu onda nista, nek ti kaze pin kod, trkni pa joj podigni penziju negde odma u pet ujutru kad nema milion ljudi pred bankomatom. 

Organizovali su se relatvno korektno .

A record 3.28 million Americans filed for unemployment benefits last week as the coronavirus pandemic shut down much of the country. The Labor Department's report for the week ended March 21 was one of the first official indicators of how many people have suddenly been forced out of work nationally.

In the prior report, for the week ended March 14, initial claims totaled 282,000.

"This marks the highest level of seasonally adjusted initial claims in the history of the seasonally adjusted series," the department said of the latest figure. "The previous high was 695,000 in October of 1982." The Labor Department's records go back to 1967.

GENEVA (Reuters) - The World Trade Organization’s chief said on Wednesday that projections show the economic downturn and job losses caused by the coronavirus pandemic would be worse than the 2008 recession.

“This pandemic will inevitably have an enormous impact on the economy...” director-general Roberto Azevedo said in a video message filmed from his home and posted on the website of the body that creates rules for global commerce.

“Recent projections predict an economic downturn and job losses that are worse than the global financial crisis a dozen years ago,” he added.

 
He said concrete forecasts were not yet available, but the WTO’s in-house economists expected “a very sharp decline in trade”.

However, he said countries could take important steps to limit immediate economic damage and lay the foundations for a long-term recovery, urging them to work together.

“Coordinating efforts will increase our collective recession-fighting power,” he added.

 
Azevedo praised stimulus measures taken by governments as “positive”, without naming countries, and also urged WTO members to be transparent and share information.

The body has called off face-to-face meetings at its Geneva headquarters since reporting a coronavirus case earlier this month and also scrapped its major biennial meeting, due to be held in Kazakhstan in June, due to the outbreak.

Novinari KRIK-a došli su do dokumenta u kome zamenik gradonačelnika Beograda Goran Vesić nalaže gradskim preduzećima da prestanu sa plaćanjem svojih dugovanja privatnicima#RasKRIKavanje #koronavirus https://t.co/4TxhBK4Gx5

— Raskrikavanje (@Raskrikavanje) March 27, 2020

Portuguese Prime Minister — “Either the EU does what it has to do or it will end.”’ https://t.co/FuZPwdNMmS

— Ben Judah (@b_judah) March 27, 2020

Bendegúz Somogyi wrote:

Novinari KRIK-a došli su do dokumenta u kome zamenik gradonačelnika Beograda Goran Vesić nalaže gradskim preduzećima da prestanu sa plaćanjem svojih dugovanja privatnicima#RasKRIKavanje #koronavirus https://t.co/4TxhBK4Gx5

— Raskrikavanje (@Raskrikavanje) March 27, 2020

Former Dutch central bank governor Nout Wellink says his government should back coronabonds: "We are no longer a rich north if the whole south fails" https://t.co/bhOkHARjcp

— Mehreen (@MehreenKhn) March 30, 2020

Italië helpen, of gevaar dat EU uiteenvalt

Deutsche Bank expect eurozone GDP to contract 11.4% in the second quarter of 2020. Broken down country-by-country (cumulative change in GDP between Q1 and Q2):
-20.1%
-16.3%
-15.1%
-14.8%
-12.2%

— mehreenkhn (@MehreenKhn) March 30, 2020

Halászlé wrote:Pare za minimalce tek polovinom maja ahahaha