Virus

Opinions on the coronavirus outbreak

Last updated: February 24, 01:05 GMT
Expert opinions listed in reverse chronological order. Click on a quote to expand.

The director general of the WHO has recently spoken of a narrowing of the window of opportunity to control the current epidemic. The tipping point - after which our ability to prevent a global pandemic ends - seems a lot closer after the past 24 hours

Prof. Paul Hunter
Professor of Health Protection
University of East Anglia
Feb. 23, 2020

The number of reports from multiple different countries in the past 36 hours showing what is most likely community human to human spread of SARS-CoV-2 confirms fears that the virus is on its way to causing a pandemic

Prof. Dr. Benhur Lee, MD
Professor of Microbiology
Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai (ISMMS)
Feb. 21, 2020

All predictions are important. Most predictions are wrong. And I think we must be careful with that.
[asked about prediction that Covid-19 could affect 2/3 of world's population]

Dr. Michael Ryan
Executive Director
WHO Health Emergencies Programme
Feb. 17, 2020

I think it is likely we will see a global pandemic. If a pandemic happens, 40% to 70% of people world-wide are likely to be infected in the coming year. What proportion is asymptomatic, I can't give a good number

Prof. Marc Lipsitch
Prof. of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health
Head, Harvard Ctr. Communicable Disease Dynamics
Feb. 14, 2020

I think this virus is probably with us beyond this season, beyond this year, and I think eventually the virus will find a foothold and we'll get community based transmission and you can start to think about it like seasonal flu. The only difference is we don't understand this virus
Dr. Robert Redfield
Director, CDC
US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Feb. 13, 2020

This is really a global problem that’s not going to go away in a week or two.

What makes this one perhaps harder to control than SARS is that it may be possible to transmit before you are sick.

I think we should be prepared for the equivalent of a very, very bad flu season, or maybe the worst-ever flu season in modern times.

Prof. Marc Lipsitch
Prof. of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health
Head, Harvard Ctr. Communicable Disease Dynamics
Feb. 11, 2020

I hope this outbreak may be over in something like April

Prof. Nanshan Zhong
Leading epidemiologist, first to describe SARS coronavirus
Feb. 11, 2020

It could infect 60% of global population if unchecked

Prof. Gabriel Leung
Expert on coronavirus epidemics
Chair of Public Health Medicine
Hong Kong University
Feb. 11, 2020

It’s a new virus. We don’t know much about it, and therefore we’re all concerned to make certain it doesn’t evolve into something even worse

Prof. W. Ian Lipkin
Epidemiology Director
Columbia University
Feb. 10, 2020

We are estimating that about 50,000 new infections per day are occurring in China. [...] It will probably peak in its epicenter, Wuhan, in about one month time; maybe a month or two later in the whole of China. The rest of the world will see epidemics at various times after that. (EXPAND FOR VIDEO)

Prof. Neil Ferguson
Director, Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics
Imperial College, London
Feb. 6, 2020

This looks far more like H1N1’s spread than SARS, and I am increasingly alarmed
Dr. Peter Piot
(Director, The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine)
Feb. 2, 2020

It sounds and looks as if it’s going to be a very highly transmissible virus [...] This virus may still be learning what it can do, we don’t know its full potential yet.

Robert Webster
(Infectious disease and avian flu expert at St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital)
Feb. 2, 2020

Increasingly unlikely that the virus can be contained
Dr. Thomas R. Frieden
(Former Director of CDC)
Feb. 2, 2020

It’s very, very transmissible, and it almost certainly is going to be a pandemic. But will it be catastrophic? I don’t know
Dr. Anthony S. Fauci
(Director, National Inst. Allergy and Infectious Disease)
Feb. 2, 2020

Until [containment] is impossible, we should keep trying
Dr. Mike Ryan
(Head of the WHO’s Emergencies Program)
Feb. 1, 2020

The more we learn about it, the greater the possibility is that transmission will not be able to be controlled with public health measures

Dr. Allison McGeer
(Director of Infection Control, Mount Sinai Hospital)
Jan. 26, 2020

9 studies were included in Meta-analysis, including a total of 50404 patients with 2019-nCoV infection.According to Meta-analysis, among the clinical characteristics of patients with 2019-nCoV infection, the incidence of fever is 90.9% , the incidence of cough is 70.8%, and the incidence of muscle soreness or fatigue is 41%. The incidence of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) was 14.8%, the incidence of abnormal chest CT was 95.6%, the proportion of severe cases in all infected cases was 21.3%, and the mortality rate of patients with 2019-nCoV infection was 4.8%.

The first case of a novel coronavirus (Covid-19) in Greece was reported on Wednesday, with the patient identified as a 38-year-old woman from Thessaloniki who had recently visited the north of Italy.

According to a health ministry announcement, the woman is being treated at a public hospital in Thessaloniki.

Her case was described as "mild", and previously asymptomatic. Additionally, people in her immediate family and close friends were voluntarily placed in a quarantine.

rumbeando wrote:

The first case of a novel coronavirus (Covid-19) in Greece was reported on Wednesday, with the patient identified as a 38-year-old woman from Thessaloniki who had recently visited the north of Italy.

According to a health ministry announcement, the woman is being treated at a public hospital in Thessaloniki.

Her case was described as "mild", and previously asymptomatic. Additionally, people in her immediate family and close friends were voluntarily placed in a quarantine.

https://www.naftemporiki.gr/story/1566008/first-instance-of-coronavirus-reported-in-greece

Ako ste stari izmedju 50-60 godina, imate 1.3% šanse umrijeti ako ste, ne daj Bože, zaraženi sa virusom.

Papa Lazarou wrote:Ovo je zapravo najdrastičniji primer "model mi zapinje zbog ove brojke, hajde da je izbacim" koji sam ikada video. Zaustavio je epidemiju da bi dokazao poentu, sveo Ro na nulu i zanemario karantinske mere.

Papa Lazarou wrote:Ekstrapolirao je podatke iz žarišta epidemije, u kome ljudi ne izlaze iz svojih stanova, i primenio na ostatak planete, usput pretpostavivši da je epidemija u Vuhanu završena, pa da se iz nje mogu izvlačiti dalekosežni zaključci.

As for food. They are being really really strict about people leaving the house now. The main entrance to my condo is blocked (as like most others), and you need a permit to drive around. But you won’t be given a permit for running personal errands like groceries. Mostly they’re granted to volunteers driving medical professionals for work, food delivery services etc We can’t go to the supermarket for food. We can’t even leave our apartment complex.

So basically, this is kinda how it works. We order food from the supermarket, or vendors who have the travelling permit, then they will deliver it to our condo, and residents will go and collect them. There will be a couple of different “packages”. Like option A includes 6 potatoes, 2 cabbages, 500g beef, option B has 5 carrots, 4 broccoli etcetc I’m just giving an example. So basically you don’t really get to choose what you wanna buy. It’s whatever they have available and you choose from limited options. Which I’m not complaining about. I’m grateful that we still have food.

The thing is, we order in WeChat groups. Which means some older folks who are not good w technology might not be able to get food. So there are volunteers in each neighbourhood to help w they, among other things. My mum is one of them. The volunteers collect the food, weigh and package them and deliver them to the elderly who might be immobile or too weak to leave their house. The volunteers will also visit the chemist periodically w a list of medication that the residents need.

It’s actually really heartwarming to see everyone helping each other. Like for example one of our neighbours was running out of flour, so we gave them some of ours. People are really looking out for one another and exchanging/giving goods and stuff. There was a baby who didn’t have enough baby formula and someone else gave some of theirs. It’s all pretty cute actually haha. My mum is a champ tho. She’s running around everywhere (within our neighbourhood) weighing, packing, delivering goods to people. It was her bday 2 days ago and she literally got home at 10pm. I’ve been helping her weigh and pack stuff at home too it’s small but it’s something I guess.

I really didn’t realise how convenient our lives were before this. You gotta plan meals and use everything strategically. It’s crazy how many small details I’m aware of now that have never crossed my mind before.

lagano... pic.twitter.com/RwRETFGmap

— NemanjaS (@_nemanjas_) 26. фебруар 2020.

Da nemamo test, ne bi[smo] znali da je epidemija.

plachkica wrote:uh, nestorović je bolji od hrvatskog naučnika

lagano... pic.twitter.com/RwRETFGmap

— NemanjaS (@_nemanjas_) 26. фебруар 2020.

The conditions and environment here in Wuhan are more difficult and extreme than we could ever have imagined. There is a severe shortage of protective equipment, such as N95 respirators, face shields, goggles, gowns, and gloves. The goggles are made of plastic that must be repeatedly cleaned and sterilised in the ward, making them difficult to see through. Due to the need for frequent hand washing, several of our colleagues' hands are covered in painful rashes. As a result of wearing an N95 respirator for extended periods of time and layers of protective equipment, some nurses now have pressure ulcers on their ears and forehead. When wearing a mask to speak with patients, our voices are muted, so we have to speak very loudly. Wearing four layers of gloves is abnormally clumsy and does not work—we can't even open the packaging bags for medical devices, so giving patients injections is a huge challenge. In order to save energy and the time it takes to put on and take off protective clothing, we avoid eating and drinking for 2 hours before entering the isolation ward. Often, nurses' mouths are covered in blisters. Some nurses have fainted due to hypoglycaemia and hypoxia.
...
Due to an extreme shortage of health-care professionals in Wuhan, 14 000 nurses from across China have voluntarily come to Wuhan to support local medical health-care professionals. But we need much more help. We are asking nurses and medical staff from countries around the world to come to China now, to help us in this battle.

На денешната прес конференција на премиерот Оливер Спасовски, министерот за здравство доц. д-р Венко Филипче и д-р Жарко Караџовски истакнаа дека официјално има еден потврден случај на заразен од коронавирус во Македонија.

Станува збор за пациентка, родена 1970 година од Скопје, која одреден период престојувала во Италија.

„Нема простор за паника, пациентката е сместена на Инфективната клиника во Одделот за изолација, соодветно се третира нејзината состојба. Епидемилошките анализи укажуваа на тоа дека таа еден месец била во Италија во посета на роднини. Веќе две недели е болна и иницијално се тестирала во здравствената установа во Италија и непосредно по влегувањето на нашата земја директно се упатила на Клиниката за инфективни болести во Скопје. Инкубацијата е помината и во моментот на транспорт таа не претставувала опасност за да ја пренесе болеста“, рече Филипче.

Инкубацијата е помината и во моментот на транспорт таа не претставувала опасност за да ја пренесе болеста

About 14 per cent of patients who recovered from the novel coronavirus and were discharged from hospitals in southern China's Guangdong province were tested positive again in later check-ups, according to the local health authority.

A positive test suggests the recovered patients may still carry the virus, adding complexity to efforts to control the outbreak.