Greg Yudin
2h • 19 tweets • 4 min read
I am constantly asked about atmosphere in Russia. I am making a THREAD🧵
to give an impression of how it feels in Moscow but also to explain how what I call “A few months theory” reigns supreme 1/19
In Moscow, one is unlikely to recognize at first that this is a country at war. However, tuning in to occasional chatting reveals that people are constantly discussing international situation. “Haven't we already taken Kherson?”, or “the Chinese will never let us down” 2/19
Businessmen take the new situation as a given and quickly adapt without much debate. “We have switched our logistics and run deliveries through Belarus now, it is very convenient. We can always switch back if the situation resolves” 3/19
Inside shopping malls, everything indicates that current closedowns are temporary 4/19
Even McDonalds hasn’t really pulled out from Russia but rather made its presence less visible. Its franchises keep operating, mostly in the Eastern parts of Russia 5/19
There are very few known cases of layoffs because of sanctions. Most TNCs are putting people on paid leave for 2-3 months and discussing what their strategy will be “when everything is back to normal” 6/19
Medvedev says TNCs approaching the government to signal they have to pay lip service to sanctions fever but are unwilling to leave. From what I know, sounds plausible. One of Big 4 firms is rebranding in Russia and tells clients contracts will be kept under th new entity 7/19
In the offices few white-collar people feel like they are living through a catastrophe. The majority is planning to explore new business opportunities and tends to believe things will get back to normal pretty soon 8/19
Open discussions about military operation are rare, for dissent is criminalized. Keep this in mind when reading numbers. A relative was stopped on the street by an interviewer; when she declared she's against the operation, a passer-by almost attacked her for being a traitor 9/19
Many families are split along the generational line, younger people prefer to abstain from discussing with parents. Parents are more willing to impose their view (probably deep inside they feel uncomfortable). A friend gets tons of messages from her mother about “Ukro-Nazis” 10/x
There are minor shortages of meds, and some people are trying to replenish their stock. However, the initial panic seems to have died down 11/x
The ruble has bounced back. It is difficult to buy currency in Moscow but the exchange rate gives confidence. It is possible to go to the neighboring countries and buy $ practically at the same rate as it was before the “military operation” started 12/x
Biden turned the ruble into rubble. Then it quickly came back.Some current and former Treasury officials, foreign exchange traders and sanctions experts say the ruble's rebound doesn’t necessarily mean the West’s economic weapons are losing their punch.
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/03/31/ruble-recovery-russia-biden-sanctions-00021850
The inflation is not necessarily connected with war. A taxi driver from Belarus complains about rising prices. However, from his perspective prices were rising for several years already, it is just that for some reason it got even worse now. He doesn't mention war 13/x
The tension is in the air, however. Several people have approached me to ask if I think there will be a war. This implies, of course, that there is currently no war. There is a belief that Poland could probably cause a war 14/x
Possible use of nuclear weapons got normalized. Conversations about consequences of war often trigger the nukes threat. “They will lift all these sanctions b/c we have nukes” “They will give in anyway, otherwise we will try our nukes on them” 15/x
For many Russians, Putin is testing, once again, the ingrained belief that might makes right. Hubris is unlimited: one simply has to be impudent enough to become the master of the universe. The West is often said to be weak because it is not ready to risk a nuclear war 16/x
Still, not much enthusiasm about military operation around. The cars with Z-symbols are few, the chance is higher to see an anti-war slogan on the wall. This stands in sharp contrast to 2014 when there were many ribbons on the cars. Many of these ribbons are there to stay 17/x
The situation in universities probably deserves a separate thread. Students are told to spy and report on their instructors. Although very few agree, it suffices to spoil the climate in the classroom. One spy is enough 18/x
It is difficult to say what the reaction would be if the “few months theory” fails. It is possible that a significant part of society will conclude that it is too late to stop, and this war will finally be perceived as existential, to be won at any cost END
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by fikret selimbašić Thu Mar 31, 2022 7:51 pm
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