Svet i šire

MNE wrote:Rusija bolja od UK meni je to malo vjerovatno

Filipenko wrote:Verovatno oni teroristi iz kneseta.

Filipenko wrote:

MNE wrote:Rusija bolja od UK meni je to malo vjerovatno

Meni je zapravo neverovatno da zemlja pod takvim sankcijama da je izbacena i iz platnog prometa, pod svim vrstama embarga, sa gomilom problema, stotinama hiljada mobilisanih i dezertera padne samo 2.2%? Pa koliko bi imali da je sve ok, 20% rasta? I onda UK koja pada 0.6% bez ikakvih dodatnih podsticaja. Koliko bi ona pala da dobije sto je Rusija dobila, 20-30%?

IMF forecasts exemplify failures of Western sanctions on Russia

By Dominic Waghorn, international affairs editor
Comparisons between Russia and the UK in the light of IMF predictions for the British economy can be a little disingenuous.
The IMF expects Russia's economy to expand but that is from a pretty low bar. Russia's economy is rebounding from the low point caused when the West imposed sanctions after the invasion of Ukraine.  It has to be said, however, that it did not contract at anywhere near the rates predicted last year by the IMF.
The figures are being leapt on by British politicians and observers for obvious reasons and a range of domestic agendas, but they also say a lot about the state and impact of Western sanctions on Ukraine. Before the invasion, Western governments hoped the threat of swift severe sanctions on Russia would deter Putin. That failed.
Since then, they have hoped that tightening sanctions would prompt a change of heart in the Kremlin. That has failed too, so far. Russia is clearly finding no difficulty in circumnavigating the restrictions, given the IMF's market upgrade of its economic outlook.
The West has failed to stem the flow of Russian oil. Oil exports are back to normal, with China and India picking up the barrels spurned by the West. But a new grey network of oil distribution has developed too, insured, transported and sold by more shadowy agents around the world.
Ordinary Russians have been hit by sanctions and inflation.  Acquiring goods, especially foreign produced imports, from white goods to cars is increasingly challenging. But Russia is a hydrocarbon-dominated economy. As long as those hydrocarbons can continue reaching foreign markets, it will continue to survive the sanctions.

Putin s War Machine Helps Keep Russian Industry Humming
•         Industrial production was flat in 2022 despite sanctions
•         Military sectors helped manufacturing outperform other areas

Bloomberg News, February 1, 2023; https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-01/putin-s-war-machine-helps-keep-russian-industry-humming


Surging military production is helping keep Russian industry going strong, offsetting much of the damage done by international sanctions and other fallout from the invasion of Ukraine.

Industrial output ended 2022 down only 0.7%, according to a consensus of forecasts compiled by Bloomberg ahead of the release of official figures later Wednesday. According to Bloomberg Economics, there was practically no decline at all as the war-fueled strength in manufacturing helped make up for declines in other sectors.

“Industrial output in 2022 turned out better than the forecasts in the first half and stronger than in previous crises,” said Sofya Donets, economist at Renaissance Capital. “Government spending contributed a lot, both in heavy and light industry.”

Industry has been one of the most resilient parts of the economy since the war began, amid declines in retail sales and cargo turnover and an overall contraction of about 2%. Record prices for Russia’s energy exports - which weren’t hit by US and European restrictions until the end of the year - and a big jump in government spending helped limit the economic damage.

“The war in Ukraine will push industrial output this this year even higher - by 2% above 2022 - but at a cost of falling living standards and stagnating consumption,” said Alexander Isakov of Bloomberg Economics.
President Vladimir Putin last month touted the economic contribution of the military industry. “It’s really gotten going in the last year and is continuing to expand,” he told officials. “Factories are working multiple shifts, some practically around the clock.”

Russia doesn’t reveal details of war-related production, but some segments of the official data include military products and have been strong performers since Putin’s Feb. 24 invasion.

Finished metal goods, which includes arms, bombs and ammunition, grew 5% over the first 11 months of last year. Production of computers, electronic and optical products, which economists say is likely to include parts for aircraft and rocket engines and optical sights and other systems showed 4% growth.

Other vehicles and equipment, which includes military ships, planes and vehicles, among other products, fell slightly despite a surge at the end of the year.

“Russia managed to steady industrial production by accepting steep discounts instead of cutting oil output, boosting defense equipment production to capacity and investing heavily in the domestic pipeline network.”
—Alexander Isakov, Russia economist

Those results were in sharp contrast to the drops seen in major civilian sectors. Cars were down nearly 50%, while the textile and wood industries were off 10% or more and chemical output dropped 4%.
A few benefited from the impact of sanctions and other restrictions on imports, boosting local production in areas like pharmaceuticals and printing.

Economists in the central bank’s research department Tuesday highlighted manufacturing as a likely bright spot in 2023, but warned that a worsening labor shortage may begin to limit growth prospects in the second half of this year. The bank’s report didn’t mention the war, which has seen 300,000 mobilized to fight and more than double that leave the country, as a contributor to the lack of workers, though industry officials have.
The report did point out, however, that the effects of increased government spending amid the war is likely to be less than it might otherwise be because “expenditures are skewed in favor of less-productive ones.” It didn’t elaborate.

Sooner or later there will be a ~M 7.5 #earthquake in this region (South-Central Turkey, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon). #deprem pic.twitter.com/6CcSnjJmCV

— Frank Hoogerbeets (@hogrbe) February 3, 2023

Şanlıurfa'da meydana gelen artçı deprem sonrası bir bina böyle yıkıldı. pic.twitter.com/Lubh7huMJN

— Pusholder (@pusholder) February 6, 2023

#BREAKING: A new earthquake of magnitude 7.8 has struck southern Turkey

— Faytuks News Δ (@Faytuks) February 6, 2023

Yes, I live in the south of there, there was a short-term earthquake again.

#BREAKING #TURKIYE #TURQUIA #TURQUIE #TURKEY

TURKIYE :POWERFUL EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDE 7.4 HIT 10 CITIES IN SOUTHEASTERN REGION#VIDEO KAHRAMAN MARAS CITY

Many people still under debris, casualties unknown#BreakingNews #UltimaHora #Earthquake #Sismo #Terremoto #Gempa #Deprem pic.twitter.com/fAiqKx9MBL

— loveworld (@LoveWorld_Peopl) February 6, 2023

fikret selimbašić wrote:

#BREAKING: A new earthquake of magnitude 7.8 has struck southern Turkey

— Faytuks News Δ (@Faytuks) February 6, 2023

Yes, I live in the south of there, there was a short-term earthquake again.

EMSC
@LastQuake
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11m
This new earthquake is about 100km to the N of last night earthquake. It has been followed 12 min later by a strong aftershock about M6. Again, it is an exceptionally difficult situation for populations. A major assitance will be required