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Hamas’s atrocities and Israel’s retaliation will change both sides for ever (...)
Ignore at your peril
Indeed, Israel is having to re-examine many long-held assumptions, most notably the belief that Gaza could safely be left to fester. After Hamas seized control of Gaza in 2007 from the Palestinian Authority (pa), the Palestinian government-in-waiting, Israel and Egypt drastically tightened border restrictions, asphyxiating Gaza’s economy. Despite the repeated bouts of violence since then, Israeli officials had come to think that Hamas had become more pragmatic. “Above all, they want to keep control of Gaza,” an army officer said last year. “To do that they need to improve the economy.” If Israel allowed Arab governments to bankroll basic social services in Gaza, the thinking ran, and issued more permits for Gazans to work in Israel, the territory would remain quiescent.
Not only was that view completely wrong, but Israel’s vaunted security services also failed to spot that an elaborate attack was in the works. Every phone call in Gaza is routed through Israeli networks, which simplifies eavesdropping. Drones frequently fly over the strip. Israel also has a vast network of informants in the territory—all to no avail.
Part of the problem, no doubt, was a conceptual failure: the belief that Hamas had lost interest in large-scale conflict. In fact, even some Hamas leaders seem surprised. Mr Abu Marzouk says he and other senior leaders in Qatar were not told about the attack in advance. Since 2017, when Yahya Sinwar became the leader of Hamas in Gaza, a small number of hardliners, mostly based in Gaza, have consolidated power.
A second error was the divide-and-rule policy towards the Palestinians of Binyamin Netanyahu, who has been Israel’s prime minister for 12 of the past 14 years. He has long sought to undermine the pa, which still runs parts of the West Bank. He has refused to resume peace negotiations since half-hearted talks broke down in 2014. He has frozen transfers of the tax revenues Israel collects on the pa’s behalf. At the same time, he has treated Hamas like a legitimate power in Gaza. In 2011, for instance, he approved a deal to swap 1,027 Palestinian prisoners for Gilad Shalit, an Israeli soldier the militants had captured in 2006. The exchange, naturally, raised Hamas’s standing among Palestinians.
For Mr Netanyahu, the logic was clear. The Palestinian Authority (PA) is committed to negotiating a two-state solution with Israel, which is anathema to the prime minister’s right-wing supporters. Undermining the PA and boosting its militant rival would help him to claim that Israel has no “partner for peace”. But Palestinians drew a different, if predictable lesson: that the only way to extract concessions from Israel is through force.
Hamas may now have overreached, however. Some observers believe it did not expect its assault to be so successful and is not sure how to proceed. It may have hoped to frighten Israel into concessions, but has instead steeled it for war. The Israeli army told foreign defence attachés on October 10th that its aim was to “eliminate” the leadership of Hamas. “The military end-goal is to destroy Hamas’s capability, no matter how long it takes,” the army said, according to someone who attended. That is easier said than done, though, as America learned during its long war in Afghanistan, or Israel during its 18-year occupation of southern Lebanon.
Even if Israel could uproot Hamas, no one is sure what would replace it. The PA is too weak to assert authority in Gaza; it is not even strong enough to control the West Bank, parts of which have fallen into anarchy. A plurality of Palestinians, and a majority of Gazans, want to dissolve it. Mahmoud Abbas, the 87-year-old president, has not set foot in Gaza in almost 20 years.
There has been some idle talk of sending Arab peacekeepers to secure Gaza, but few Arab regimes would want to do so. Egypt occupied Gaza from 1949 to 1967; both sides have bitter memories of that time. Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have no desire to rule over 2m Palestinians. Nor do most Israelis wish to reoccupy the territory.
To invade and then leave, however, would not change the status quo. Hamas’s leaders and a large proportion of its fighters are likely to emerge from their bunkers and restore control over the strip the minute the Israelis depart. That is an unpalatable outcome, but it is the most likely one. (...)

ćaća wrote:Poslali su brodove da rasele Palestince iz Gaze.

Above all, they want to keep control of Gaza,” an army officer said last year. “To do that they need to improve the economy.” 

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has issued a stern warning about the current escalation in Gaza.
In statements on Tuesday, Sisi reaffirmed Egypt’s National Security being his top responsibility and that it “cannot be compromised or forfeited under any circumstance.”
He added that Egypt will not allow the termination of the Palestinian cause at the expense of other parties.
Sisi confirmed that his country is closely monitoring the developments in the region, particularly in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.
“Egypt is intensifying its efforts at all levels to halt the current military confrontations, to spare the blood of the Palestinian people, and to protect civilians on both the Palestinian and Israeli sides,” said Sisi.
“Egypt affirms that a just and comprehensive peace based on a two-state solution is the way to achieve genuine and sustainable security for the Palestinian people.”
He added that “Egypt does not relinquish its commitments to Arab issues, with the Palestinian cause at the forefront.”
Sisi expressed Egypt’s hope for a resolution and settlement of the Palestinian cause “through negotiations leading to a just peace and the establishment of the Palestinian state.”
Regarding Egypt’s efforts to achieve a ceasefire, he said: “We are in communication with all international powers and all regional influential parties to reach an immediate cessation of violence and achieve a ceasefire to save the lives of civilians on both sides.”
At a time when there are increasing concerns about a potential mass Palestinian migration toward the Egyptian border with Gaza, Sisi emphasized that "there will be no compromise on Egypt’s national security under any circumstances, and the Egyptian people must be aware of the complexities of the situation and the magnitude of the threat.”
High-ranking Egyptian security sources have issued a warning through statements to Egyptian media.
They expressed concerns about what they described as “an attempt to push Palestinians in Gaza towards migrating to the Egyptian border due to the ongoing Israeli airstrikes in the strip.”
The sources emphasized that “Egyptian sovereignty is not to be violated.”

Israeli intelligence picked up signs of irregular activity among Hamas operatives in Gaza the night before the Hamas attack but top IDF and Shin Bet leaders opted not to put military forces on the borders on high alert, three Israeli officials told Axios. https://t.co/2099VQUqqZ

— Axios (@axios) October 12, 2023

BREAKING: Israel's Channel 14 reports the military is ready for a ground operation in Gaza and is awaiting political approval, saying it is prepared to stay in Gaza for 'months' and that the current presented objective is the 'disarmament of the Gaza Strip'.

— The Spectator Index (@spectatorindex) October 12, 2023

"Right now, I am prepared to be a suicide bomber."

"With Allah's help, I will fight for ISIS, the Islamic State."

"I am ready to stab a Jew and drive a car over them."

"We have to constantly stab them, drive over them, and shoot them."

"Stabbing and running over Jews brings… pic.twitter.com/TSqNMK2L31

— Kyle Becker (@kylenabecker) October 12, 2023

The IDF notified the United Nations at midnight on Friday that the entire Palestinian population north of Wadi Gaza should relocate to southern Gaza within 24 hours, a UN spokesperson says.
The message indicates that the IDF could be readying to launch a ground invasion after six days of aerial bombardment in response to the massive Hamas onslaught on Saturday.
Roughly 1.1 million Palestinians live north of Wadi Gaza, the spokesperson says in a statement.
The warning applied to UN staff and those sheltered in UN facilities in those areas.
“The United Nations considers it impossible for such a movement to take place without devastating humanitarian consequences,” the spokesperson adds. “The United Nations strongly appeals for any such order, if confirmed, to be rescinded avoiding what could transform what is already a tragedy into a calamitous situation.”
The spokesperson says the warning was delivered to team leaders of the UN Office of the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs and the UN’s Department of Safety and Security in Gaza by their liaison officers in the IDF.

An official from Hamas called on the residents of the Gaza Strip "not to fall for the propaganda of the IDF's evacuation orders", after the UN warned that the army ordered all residents of the northern Gaza Strip to evacuate to the south within 24 hours. (Reuters)

Spiker: U bolnicama je stanje kritično jer bez goriva generatori za struju će stati.
Direktor bolnice Al Šifa u Gazi: Ako generatori stanu, ova će bolnica postati masovna grobnica jer na respiratorima je više od 120 ranjenih pacijenata, na dijalizi je 1000 pacijenata, a u inkubatorima je 50 nedonoščadi. Također, ne možemo pokrenuti intenzivnu njegu i pogone za proizvodnju kisika bez struje. Dakle, svi ovi ljudi suočeni su sa sigurnom smrću.

Israeli army tells 1 million residents of the northern Gaza Strip to move south of the city as it prepares a land operation. Hamas tells Palestinian civilians to ignore the warning and stay put.

— Yaroslav Trofimov (@yarotrof) October 13, 2023

Big Breaking

According to French media outlet BFM, the suspect in the knife attack at Arras high school is thought to be a 20-year-old individual with Chechen heritage.#France #Israel #Hamas https://t.co/vUcNc2pGhp

— QuickUpdate (@BigBreakingWire) October 13, 2023

Note: Hamas has announced that Friday to be a Global Day of Rage

BEIJING, Oct 13 (Reuters) - A staffer at the Israeli embassy in Beijing was assaulted on Friday, Israel's foreign ministry said in a statement, adding that the person was in a stable condition in hospital.

Israel's president is denying the concept of innocent civilians, on the brink of a major military offensive. A very bad sign. https://t.co/bePxxDVEE6 pic.twitter.com/mdtWoYEGTJ

— Henry Mance (@henrymance) October 13, 2023

Note: Hamas has announced that Friday to be a Global Day of Rage

From UNRWA Commissioner-General Philippe Lazzarini :
“As Gaza remains under heavy bombardment with Israel tightening its grip over the overpopulated Strip, it is left to the UN and humanitarians to protect civilians.
“The call from Israeli Forces to move more than 1,000,000 civilians living in northern Gaza within 24 hours is horrendous. This will only lead to unprecedented levels of misery and further push people in Gaza into the abyss.
“Since 7 October, over 423,000 people have already been displaced. Of them, more than 270,000 have taken refuge in UNRWA shelters, where basic food, medicine and support is provided to retain dignity and a glimmer of hope.
“The scale and speed of the unfolding humanitarian crisis is bone-chilling. Gaza is fast becoming a hell hole and is on the brink of collapse. 
“There is no exception, all parties must uphold the laws of war; humanitarian assistance must be provided at all times to civilians.
“In Gaza, more than 2,000,000 people are caught up in this conflict. UNRWA is struggling to fulfil its mandate.
“I urge all parties and those with influence over them to put an end to this tragedy and provide immediate and unconditional humanitarian access and protection to the civilians, among them far too many women and children.
“The time for humanity to prevail is now.”

At least 1,799 people have been killed in Israeli strikes on Gaza since the start of Israel's retaliatory air strikes on Saturday, the health ministry in the blockaded Palestinian enclave has said. The ministry reported in a statement the "martyrdom of 1,799 citizens including 583 children and 351 women", adding that more than 7,000 people have been wounded.

Western diplomats are walking an impossible tightrope with Israel
Both European and American officials are attempting to juggle support with calls for restraint

FT  Gideon Rachman 16 MINUTES AGO

As Israel prepares for an apparently inevitable ground invasion of Gaza, a flurry of western diplomats and politicians are arriving in Jerusalem. But visitors from the US and Europe have a complicated — and arguably contradictory — message. They want to express complete support for Israel in striking back against Hamas. But they are also urging the Israelis to act with restraint.

That was communicated by Antony Blinken, the US secretary of state, on his visit to Tel Aviv on Thursday. A similar view will be pushed by Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission — on her visit to Israel on Friday.

In Brussels, there is some nervousness about the fact that von der Leyen has arrived in Israel just as that country’s government is urging more than 1mn Gazans to leave the north of the strip. The concern is that the European Commission president could look as if she is endorsing military actions that will cause mass civilian casualties — and that will swiftly be labelled as war crimes.

“We may be about to see massive ethnic cleansing,” says one EU diplomat. Another senior Brussels official says that the EU should already have lined up with the UN secretary-general’s calls for Israel to respect international humanitarian law.

But some in Brussels argue that it is much better to convey the EU position face to face with the Israelis — rather than communicating by posts on X, the social media platform.

More broadly, European officials say they are focusing on three main aspects of the conflict. First, the fighting itself. Second, reactions in the wider region. And third, the response outside the west. “Our fear is that we’ll pay a heavy price in the global south because of this conflict,” says one EU official.

But there is very little confidence in western capitals that Israel will listen to calls for restraint. “They think they are facing a second potential Holocaust and fighting for the survival of the state,” says the EU official. “They’re not going to listen to us.”

European diplomats have also been struck by how little interest the Israeli government has shown in prioritising the lives of the hostages held in Gaza — some of whom come from European countries.

The wider Middle Eastern region is also a key focus of US policy. After Israel, Blinken is visiting several other countries in the region including Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Qatar and Egypt. Western officials have been talking to their Egyptian counterparts about the possibility of Egypt opening its border with Gaza — to allow refugees to leave the territory. But the Egyptians are currently adamant that they will do no such thing. They argue that they are already hosting refugees fleeing other conflicts, such as the one in Sudan.

And they share widespread concerns that once Israel has forced the Palestinians out of Gaza, it will never let them back.