Francuska - parlamentarni izbori

Pritom dvokružni, biće tactical voting u drugom krugu, ali kapiram da je crveni teror macronovskim loyalsima mnogo veći issue nego kebab eviction... Za sada baš dosta loši rezultati.

France’s ‘hard left’ has been demonised – but its agenda is realistic, not radical
Julia Cagé and Thomas Piketty


The New Popular Front will improve ordinary people’s lives – and it’s an effective, economically sound alternative to the far right

Wed 3 Jul 2024 02.00 EDT



The first round of legislative elections in France produced an unprecedented surge of support for the far right. Next Sunday, 7 July, the National Rally (RN) and its allies could potentially make it to power. Not just with a relative majority, but – and there is a significant probability of this – with an outright one.

Some may argue that the far right is here and we should simply get used to it. Far-right parties have won elections in recent years in other European countries, including Italy and the Netherlands. But we cannot get used to it. A far-right victory represents a major threat to our basic social contract and our liberties. We face the implementation of policies that discriminate against foreigners, migrants, women, minorities and more. Because it has no credible economic platform, the far right will revert to the only thing it knows – the exacerbation of tensions and the politics of hate.

What is the alternative? The left alliance, the New Popular Front (NFP), is France’s best chance.
This alliance takes its inspiration from the Popular Front – which in 1936 emerged under the threat of fascism to govern France. This leftwing coalition of socialists and communists represented a real change for the working classes, with policies such as the introduction of a two-week paid vacation and a law limiting the working week to 40 hours. Such social change was made possible by electoral victory, but also by the demands of civil society and by pressure from the trade unions, which organised a wave of factory occupations. There was a clear sociopolitical competition between working people and the ruling classes that led to a political conflict between the left and right.

The NFP is following a similar path today, with ambitious policies to improve the purchasing power of poor and lower-middle-class people. These reforms include a substantial increase in the minimum wage, wages indexed to prices and free school lunches. Most importantly the NFP wants to prioritise investment in the future by increasing public spending on infrastructure – throughout the country, including in isolated rural areas – as well as in health, education and research. This is the only coherent way to plan for the future and to increase labour productivity, which under Macron has declined by 5% since 2019.

The detailed NFP economic manifesto was launched last month with full costings. Because – and this is new – the NFP’s plans are balanced from a budgetary viewpoint: investment in future growth and productivity as well as in energy and climate transition could be made affordable through progressive wealth taxation, the introduction of an exit tax, effective taxation of multinational firms and a long-awaited fight against social, fiscal and environmental dumping. This programme would also give workers more power within the companies that employ them by improving corporate governance (for example, reserving a third of seats on company boards for employees’ representatives, following similar provisions that have existed for decades in Nordic countries and Germany).

These plans are the complete opposite of the path pursued by Emmanuel Macron since 2017. His agenda has exacerbated both income and wealth inequality, while there has been no change in investment, job creation or growth. To counter support for the far right, Macron’s strategy was to seek support from both the centre right and centre left. In practice, this came to look more and more like a coalition of well-off voters, and as the recent elections have shown, you cannot sustainably govern a country with such a narrow electoral base.

Some now seek to scare leftwing and centre-left voters by claiming that the NFP’s programme for government would be dangerous for the French economy. They are wrong. We are not claiming that this manifesto is perfect – how could it be given that Macron only allowed three weeks to organise for elections? But in historical context, it should be considered a pragmatic, social democratic set of proposals aimed at reducing inequalities and preparing for the future. There is nothing radical in this agenda.

Perhaps more importantly, this programme will allow the left to look towards winning back votes in rural areas and smaller cities where people have gradually turned to the far right.

Last Sunday, the RN won a 1.6 times higher vote share in small and medium-sized cities (50,000 inhabitants or less) than in large urban centres (with populations of above 250,000). The reverse holds for the left. We digitised all commune-level results for legislative elections since 1848, and we have not seen such a large geographical gap in voting patterns since the late 19th century and early 20th century.

In cities with populations of between 20,000 and 30,000 such as Hénin-Beaumont, a former coalmining town in the north-east, and Marine Le Pen’s constituency, the RN scores 60% of the vote. Even in more populous cities such as Cambrai, in a region that has suffered big manufacturing shutdowns in recent decades and is relatively poorly served by infrastructure such as hospitals, universities and public transport links, Le Pen’s party is achieving scores above 40%.



As we show in our book A History of Political Conflict, people in smaller cities and rural areas are drawn to the far right first and foremost because of socioeconomic concerns: they lack purchasing power, they suffer most from the lack of investment in public infrastructure and they feel that they have been abandoned by governments of all stripes in recent decades.

The NFP’s policy platform credibly addresses how to finance a strategy of inclusive investment. By contrast, the far right argues in favour of repealing the existing tax on real-estate multi-millionaires. It claims it will finance its policies by targeting foreigners and welfare recipients, but this will simply generate more economic disillusionment and more tensions.
The only threat in France next Sunday is the one posed by far-right victory. We hope that centrist voters understand what is at stake and turn back to the left.

• 
  Julia Cagé and Thomas Piketty are the authors of A History of Political Conflict: Elections and Social Inequalities in France, 1789-2022
  

@piketijev tekst

Ne razumem kako ljudi ne shvataju da od tih redistributivnih sema nema nista. Niko ne zeli da da pare za to. Ni bogati, ni srednja klasa, ni radnici, niko zivi. Jedini ko se tome raduje su PMC ekipe preko kojih bi te pare isle. Ako se ovako nastavi realnost je Milei, i to je to.

First full poll since the Republican Front made the 2nd round of French elections a straight fight between the Far Right and most of the rest. Harris projects at most 220 seats for Le Pen's party, 70 short of a majority https://t.co/HEew8Q9tGb

— Mujtaba Rahman (@Mij_Europe) July 3, 2024

RN nece imati ni priblizno samostalnu vecinu, beco oko 200 poslanika. Zeleno-levi front oko 185, Makron 130-140 i Republikanci 40-50.
Ostaje da se vidi da li ce se ispostovati da pobednik sastavlja vecinu i pored pobede RN ili ce se ici na zaobilazenje i moguce izazivanje sve vece krize u Francuskoj.
U Holandiji je skoro formirana vlada gde je nosilac vlasti stranka Gerta Vildersa, ipak su ispostovali to sto je on bio prvi na izborima. Francuska ima drugaciju politicku kulturu tako da je moguce da ce ici na vladu bez RN.

Летећи Полип wrote:@piketijev tekst

Ne razumem kako ljudi ne shvataju da od tih redistributivnih sema nema nista. Niko ne zeli da da pare za to. Ni bogati, ni srednja klasa, ni radnici, niko zivi. Jedini ko se tome raduje su PMC ekipe preko kojih bi te pare isle. Ako se ovako nastavi realnost je Milei, i to je to.

ne kapiram. realnost je milei ili milei?

Final seat projections ahead of France's election:

RN (far-right): 207 (+118)
NFP (left-wing): 175 (+22)
🟡 ENS (centre-right): 133 (-116)
LR (right-wing): 47 (-28)

The RN would be 82 seats short of a majority. pic.twitter.com/4G8sjQWtR3

— Stats for Lefties ️‍� (@LeftieStats) July 6, 2024

The interior ministry said 26.63% of registered voter had cast a ballot by noon France time, the highest figure since 1981, compared to 25.90% at the same time last Sunday 2/

— Mujtaba Rahman (@Mij_Europe) July 7, 2024

da da inace ovde b92 vec bio krunisao le penovu i najavio gradjanski rat

Нека је са срећом!

Prilicno iznenadjenje na osnovu najvaljenih projekcija
Dva su razloga:
1) Stratesko glasanje svih protiv RN. Svi su dobili tako 10-20 poslanika vise na racun RN, najvise Makron ali cak LR je dobio 15ak vise od projekcije.

2) Pozivanje fudbalera francuske reprezentacije koja je usla u polufinale EP da se nikako ne glasa za RN.

Sto se tice sastavljanja vlade, trebalo bi zeleno-levi da dobiju premijera jer su najvise dobili. Ali je Makron rekao da nikada nece sa delovima zeleno-levog frontaa ni prosli put nisu imali premijera iako su pobedili.
Mislim da ce pokusati skrpiti vecinu Makron, delovl zeleno-levog fronta poput zelenih i na kraju LR i manje liste tj. samostalci.

Autor: Informer/RTFB 07.07.2024 19:41

Prve izlazne ankete dale prednost Marin Le Pen! Evo šta kažu



Partija Nacionalno okupljanje Marin Le Pen dobiće između 210 i 228 mesta od 577 u francuskom parlamentu, izvestio je belgijski televizijski kanal RTBF, pozivajući se na izlazne ankete.

Autor: Informer 07.07.2024 20:32

Makronov poraz potvrđen! Odmah se oglasio najveći pobednik izbora u Francuskoj!



Lider tzv. levice Žan-Lik Melanšon poručio je da je Makronov poraz sada potvrđen, kao i da volja naroda mora da se poštuje.

Sox wrote:
2) Pozivanje fudbalera francuske reprezentacije koja je usla u polufinale EP da se nikako ne glasa za RN.

I šta drugo da im čovjek poželi nego da osvoje Euro. A i glasao sam za njih u anketi... Jasna je motivacija djece imigranata za ovakav potez. Ali svejedno, s obzirom da su se dobro opernatili u nogometu, mogli su se praviti mrtvi i ponašati kao da ih se čitava stvar ništa ne tiče. Ali, eto, nisu svi nogoloptači trogloditi kao ovdašnji repstativci.

Kakva-takva ljevica ima, ili će imati, premijere u Njemačkoj, Španjolskoj, Francuskoj i Britaniji. Solidan tjedan za Evropu, indeed.

Ne sjećam se da su ikad igdje pollsteri zakazali kao u Francuskoj. 

Sox wrote:Prilicno iznenadjenje na osnovu najvaljenih projekcija
Dva su razloga:
1) Stratesko glasanje svih protiv RN. Svi su dobili tako 10-20 poslanika vise na racun RN, najvise Makron ali cak LR je dobio 15ak vise od projekcije.

2) Pozivanje fudbalera francuske reprezentacije koja je usla u polufinale EP da se nikako ne glasa za RN.

pa eto, neće ih narod