Virus

Cousin Billy wrote:to je ono što pričam. ovo će potrajati dugo i vakcinisani moraju da se puste da žive. flipside je da nevakcinisani moraju da se zatvore.

Cousin Billy wrote:ne može lekar da ti dozvoli da na ličnu odgovornost uzimaš medikamente koji mogu da ti naude, to onda nije medicina nego supermarket.

Mór Thököly wrote:

Cousin Billy wrote:to je ono što pričam. ovo će potrajati dugo i vakcinisani moraju da se puste da žive. flipside je da nevakcinisani moraju da se zatvore.

Ja se slazem, ali ima dva problema. Ovakve mere ce se jako tesko do nikako moci sprovesti kod nas. Al ajd da kazemo da moze. Utom slucaju moraju sinofarmovce da racunaju kao imunizovane na 3 meseca, a fajzerovce i sputnjikovce/AZ na 5. Inace ce steta biti mnogo veca od koristi ako krene virus da se siri na tim mestima gde se skupljaju vakcinisani. A to je onda politicki problem jer moras javno da priznas da je SFarm slabija vakcina.

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2294215-nearly-every-person-in-iran-seems-to-have-had-covid-19-at-least-once/

Covid-19 still rife in Iran

An analysis of covid-19infections among Iranian people casts further doubt on the idea that herd immunity can be achieved without vaccination, reports Catherine Shaffer


NEARLY everyone in Iran has been infected by the coronavirus at some point during the covid-19 pandemic, and some have caught the virus more than once, but the country still hasn’t achieved herd immunity. Instead, Iran is seeing a punishing new wave of deaths driven by the delta variant.

Iran was one of the first countries after China to be hit by the pandemic, and it had a slow start to its vaccine rollout. By July 2021, only about 3 per cent of the population was fully vaccinated against the coronavirus, according to Mahan Ghafari at the University of Oxford, although information from Johns Hopkins University in
Maryland shows that proportion has now risen to about 23 per cent.

The Council on Foreign Relations, a US think tank, has called Iran’s covid-19 mitigation measures “halting and
ineffective”, and said the country’s response has been hampered by mixed messages from authorities.

Understanding the effects of covid-19 in Iran has been made more difficult by limited official data. Iran’s Ministry of Health and Medical Education stopped releasing province-level data on confirmed cases and deaths in March 2020. Ghafari also says that low and middle-income countries are more likely to under-report cases and deaths due to a lack of health infrastructure and testing capacity. To get round the shortfall in information, Ghafari and his colleagues analysed figures from Iran’s National Organization for Civil Registration (NOCR) on how many deaths there were from all causes in the first nine months of 2020. They compared these with historical data to see how many more deaths there were than usual. The researchers used this excess deaths figure as a proxy to estimate the number of covid-19 deaths and population-level exposure to the virus – an approach that has proved accurate in the UK and South Africa.

The NOCR began releasing past weekly data stratified by age group in August, which allowed the researchers to reconstruct the dynamics of the pandemic in Iran from January 2020 through to September 2021. They  calculated how many people in each province had contracted covid-19 using known global figures on the  percentage of infected people who die, known as the infection fatality rate (IFR) for each age group. Dividing the number of excess deaths by the IFR gives an estimate for the number of infections, and allows you to tell what proportion of the population is infected, also known as the viral attack rate. The analysis showed that the total infected population was probably very high in many provinces. Eleven of them had rates over 100 per cent as
of 17 September. The highest rates were seen in Sistan and Baluchestan province, which had an estimated attack rate of 259 per cent (medRxiv, doi.org/g2sn). If accurate, that would mean most people have had the virus twice and some for a third time. The researchers conclude that herd immunity through natural infection hasn’t been attained in Iran in spite of widespread exposure to the SARS-CoV-2 virus, probably because of immunity waning over time, susceptibility to new variants of concern like delta or a combination of the two.

Mark Loeb at McMaster University in Canada says studies using direct measurements of infections are needed to
conclusively determine the attack rate of the virus for a given population. However, he finds the study’s  conclusions plausible. “Overall, what’s happening globally is that it certainly does appear that antibodies wane and there’s not this point where, miraculously, herd immunity or herd effect is achieved, ”he says. Loeb says he isn’t aware of any pathogens for which herd immunity has been reached without vaccination. “By far the safest and most effective way to achieve herd immunity is through vaccination,” he says.

The first strong indication that herd immunity against covid-19 can’t be achieved without vaccination came from Manaus in Brazil. In October 2020, a study of blood donors there showed that 76 per cent of the population had been infected with the coronavirus, which was above the theoretical herd immunity threshold of 67 per cent for that community. That threshold is based on limiting the average number of other people an infected person is likely to go on to infect – the R number – to three.  In December and January, Manaus saw an alarming surge incases, hospitalisations and deaths, which was attributed to the highly transmissible gamma variant. 

Evidence is piling up that the immunity conferred by infection wanes. A recent study of SARS-CoV-2 and related coronaviruses found that reinfection by SARS-CoV-2 occurred in about 16 months, less than half the time it takes for endemic “common cold” coronaviruses. And a study from India found a covid-19 reinfection rate of 27 per cent during the surge caused by the delta variant earlier this year (Science, doi.org/gm47sd).

David Fisman at the University of Toronto in Canada says, “Iran is a big and complicated place and I think the work [these researchers] have done has substantial face validity.” However, he says the study’s conclusions rest on two big assumptions: that all excess mortality is due to covid-19, and that the IFR estimates can be applied to Iran. He says if the IFR values aren’t the same there, because of overwhelmed health systems or anew, deadlier viral variant, the calculated attack rate would then also be inaccurate. The analysis is consistent with
previous studies showing that immunity to covid-19 fades and new variants aren’t stopped as effectively by immune defences, says Deepti Gurdasani at Queen Mary University of London. “There is no country so far,19months into the pandemic, that has reached herd immunity. And by that I mean, the point at which you lift all restrictions and the pandemic will actually die out because there’s nobody left to infect.” 

This is what mass infection of children looks like- a tragic story in two graphs: pic.twitter.com/xjmrxAkk3A

— Deepti Gurdasani (@dgurdasani1) October 22, 2021

This shows 2000 children hospitalised with Covid19 since august.

— Dr Grace Hurford (@dr_hurford) October 22, 2021

Gomiletina

— krava muzara 🦦 (@kravicamuuu) October 23, 2021

Вишемесечна истрага ЦНН утврдила је да су током пандемије коронавируса десетине милиона тона фалсификованих и коришћених заштитних медицинских рукавица увезене у САД, на основу података о увозу и дистрибутерима који су их увезли, а то је тек врх леденог брега, пише овај амерички медиј.

Del Cap wrote:The highest rates were seen in Sistan and Baluchestan province, which had an estimated attack rate of 259 per cent (medRxiv, doi.org/g2sn). If accurate, that would mean most people have had the virus twice and some for a third time. The researchers conclude that herd immunity through natural infection hasn’t been attained in Iran in spite of widespread exposure to the SARS-CoV-2 virus, probably because of immunity waning over time, susceptibility to new variants of concern like delta or a combination of the two.