Virus

Daniel Dale
@ddale8
·
10m
Asked about his plan to send troops to the Canadian border, Trump says, "I'll find out about that. I guess it's equal justice, to a certain extent." (He was referring to how he has tough measures on the Mexican border.)

Trump then suggests that the US has to watch for...dumped steel coming across the Canadian border.

As the Dutch government refuses to show European solidarity with member states in need, Dutch hospitals ask those countries to take Dutch patients as NL lacks IC beds after years of austerity... https://t.co/M2BxA5BRDw

— Maurits Meijers (@MauritsMeijers) March 26, 2020

Mark Rutte after #euco: "I cannot forsee any circumstances in which the Netherlands will accept eurobonds. This is against the design of the EMU"

— Mehreen (@MehreenKhn) March 26, 2020

Erzsébet Biszak wrote:bemty, kako ti je sestra?

Sotir wrote:Прави лик за Dead man walking кампању.

Bendegúz Somogyi wrote:

The 1st cargo airplane with 40 tonnes of medical supplies and equipment has just arrived to #Belgrade airport, tnx to the immediate response & provision of funds by the #EU and @UNDPSerbia organizational support. We are glad to be able to help @SerbianGov during global emergency. pic.twitter.com/Czyi0okbcC

— UNDP in Serbia (@UNDPSerbia) March 26, 2020

Bendegúz Somogyi wrote:

Daniel Dale
@ddale8
·
10m
Asked about his plan to send troops to the Canadian border, Trump says, "I'll find out about that. I guess it's equal justice, to a certain extent." (He was referring to how he has tough measures on the Mexican border.)

Trump then suggests that the US has to watch for...dumped steel coming across the Canadian border.

2/4 -This is not the case. Indeed, if anything, our latest estimates suggest that the virus is slightly more transmissible than we previously thought. Our lethality estimates remain unchanged.

— neil_ferguson (@neil_ferguson) March 26, 2020

4/4 - Without those controls, our assessment remains that the UK would see the scale of deaths reported in our study (namely, up to approximately 500 thousand).

— neil_ferguson (@neil_ferguson) March 26, 2020

Sta je  tih 40tak tončića prema 10 kineskih tonina!

Forecasting COVID-19 impact on hospital bed-days, ICU-days, ventilator days and deaths by US state in the next 4 months

RESULTS

Compared to licensed capacity and average annual occupancy rates, excess demand from COVID-19 at the peak of the pandemic in the second week of April is predicted to be 64,175 (95% UI 7,977 to 251,059) total beds and 17,309 (95% UI 2,432 to 57,584) ICU beds. At the peak of the pandemic, ventilator use is predicted to be 19,481 (95% UI 9,767 to 39,674). The date of peak excess demand by state varies from the second week of April through May. We estimate that there will a total of 81,114 deaths (95% UI 38,242 to 162,106) from COVID-19 over the next 4 months in the US. Deaths from COVID-19 are estimated to drop below 10 deaths per day between May 31 and June 6.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In addition to a large number of deaths from COVID-19, the epidemic in the US will place a load well beyond the current capacity of hospitals to manage, especially for ICU care. These estimates can help inform the development and implementation of strategies to mitigate this gap, including reducing non-COVID-19 demand for services and temporarily increasing system capacity. These are urgently needed given that peak volumes are estimated to be only three weeks away. The estimated excess demand on hospital systems is predicated on the enactment of social distancing measures in all states that have not done so already within the next week and maintenance of these measures throughout the epidemic, emphasizing the importance of implementing, enforcing, and maintaining these measures to mitigate hospital system overload and prevent deaths.

Pandemic deaths could top 1.8 mn even with tough response: study

The death toll from the coronavirus pandemic sweeping the globe could hit 1.8 million worldwide this year even with swift and stringent measures to stop it, according to a study from Britain's Imperial College published Thursday.

Researchers estimate that tens of millions of lives could be saved if governments act fast to adopt strict public health measures, including testing, quarantining and broad social distancing.

The latest report from Imperial College London, whose previous research spurred the British government to ramp up its efforts to curb the virus, comes as an AFP toll based on country data and World Health Organisation figures showed global infections topping 500,000, including more than 22,000 deaths.

The Imperial College modelling simulations are based on current data about the severity of the virus -- its contagiousness and estimated mortality rate -- as well as demographic and societal factors.

In a sobering projection of what could have happened with no interventions at all, the study said that if left unchecked COVID-19 could have infected almost everyone on the planet this year and killed 40 million people.

The report then looks at different levels of response, from spontaneous social distancing to the tough lock down measures currently imposed in some worst-affected countries, and projects the potential health impacts across 202 countries.

With strict containment measures imposed early enough -- resulting in a at the rate of deaths of 0.2 per 100,000 of population per week -- the modelling shows a death toll of 1.86 million people, with nearly 470 million infected this year.

If the same measures were taken later -- leading to at 1.6 deaths per 100,000 of population per week -- the estimated toll rises sharply to 10.45 million deaths and 2.4 billion people infected.

"Our analysis highlights the challenging decisions faced by all governments in the coming weeks and months, but demonstrates the extent to which rapid, decisive and collective action now could save millions of lives," the authors said.

Estimates of mortality levels and healthcare demand were based on data from China and high-income countries, the report said, adding that variances in health systems could result in different patterns in low income countries.

They stressed that the modelling mapped out "possible trajectories" for the pandemic and containment strategies, based on countries that have been affected early in the pandemic.

"However, at the current time, it is not possible to predict with any certainty the exact number of cases for any given country or the precise mortality and disease burden that will result."

The report does not take into account the social and economic costs of the containment measures, "which will be high and may be disproportionately so in lower income settings".

It also warned that "suppression strategies will need to be maintained in some manner until vaccines or effective treatments become available to avoid the risk of later epidemics".

SkyHighatrist wrote:

Sta je  tih 40tak tončića prema 10 kineskih tonina!

I ovih 40tak tončića je kineska roba, nešto smo kupili, nešto nas časti Kina kroz donacije.
EU je platila prevoz (čini se iz dela onih 95m što smo dobili).

Koronavirus, izgleda, i u Šapcu

http://podrinske.com/koronavirus-izgleda-i-u-sapcu/

USKORO OPŠIRNIJE
Pacijent koji je pre dva dana umro u Opštoj bolnici Šabac najverovatnije je umro od korona virusa. Više o ovom slučaju posle konferencije za štampu Zavoda za javno zdravlje koja će se održati danas u 11 časova.

Kako „Podrinske“ nezvanično saznaju, od rodbine, policija je već počela da proverava kontakte preminulog a njegova sahrana obaviće se danas, o trošku države, bez prisustva porodice.

#OstaniKodKuće – sačuvaj svoje i tuđe zdravlje

Bendegúz Somogyi wrote:To mi je juče ispričao drugar, videćemo.

Fight against Covid-19

Confidential government study describes corona scenarios for Germany

According to SPIEGEL information for the Ministry of the Interior, several scientists have investigated how the epidemic could spread. In a worst-case scenario, they describe what happens if the state does too little against Corona.

By Martin Knobbe
27.03.2020, 08:18

In a study, the Federal Ministry of the Interior has developed scenarios for the spread of the coronavirus. The study, which is classified as confidential, entitled "How we get Covid-19 under control", involved scientists from different disciplines. They were asked to answer the question as to when a health crisis might turn into a state and systemic crisis - and how this could be prevented.

The study, which is available to SPIEGEL, was also presented to the Ministry of Defence and the Federal Chancellery on 22nd March. The "Süddeutsche Zeitung" also reported on it.

In a worst-case scenario, the scientists describe what will happen if the state does little to combat the corona epidemic, for example, only bans major events and restricts travel. As a result, 70 percent of the population would soon be infected, more than 80 percent of intensive care patients would have to be turned away from hospitals, and the death toll in Germany would exceed the million mark.

Another scenario describes the strict suppression of new infections, including extensive testing and strict isolation of those infected. To achieve this, test capacities would have to be increased over the next few weeks and mobile test stations would have to be set up. The study initially assumes an increase in test capacities to 100,000 per day, and a few weeks later to 200,000 per day. According to the Federal Ministry of Health, 200,000 tests per week are currently carried out in Germany.

"In order to make testing faster and more efficient", the paper of the Ministry of the Interior states, "the use of Big Data and Location Tracking is inevitable in the long term". If this model is followed, the scientists calculate that around one million people in Germany would be infected, but only 12,000 would die. The strict procedure would have to be maintained for two months. However, since only a small part of the population would be immunized against the virus after that, "continued high vigilance would have to be maintained," they say.

Federal Minister of the Interior Horst Seehofer (CSU) told SPIEGEL that he had also oriented himself on a study by London's Imperial College on intervention measures against corona. This study shows ways to deal with pandemics. Suppression" is an attempt to prevent the further spread of the virus with strict measures. Mitigation" refers to containment, i.e. the attempt to allow the number of cases to rise more slowly so that the health system has enough time to prepare.

"I am a firm supporter of suppression, even if this method is much more expensive," said Seehofer. "But it saves the most lives."