EU - what's next?

nisam ja siguran da istocna evropa zeli da imitira zapadnu. ona vodi svoju politiku i te politike se vracaju korenima starijim od hladnoratovskih.

Prema pisanju zagrebačkog Večernjeg lista, umesto da se o prijemnim pregovorima jednoglasno saglase sve članice EU po novom predlogu bilo bi dovoljno da to učini kvalifikovana većina, što znači da bi one zemlje koje blokiraju kandidata za članstvo u EU mogle biti preglasane.
Večernji list piše da će do toga doći zbog toga što poučena nizom loših iskustava, između ostalog i primerom Hrvatske, koja je pokušavala (ali nije uspela) da blokira pristupne pregovore Srbije na temi prilaznih merila u poglavlju 23. o pravosuđu. Zato je, smatra se, potrebno reformisanje sistema glasanja u Savetu EU tako da se odredi niz tema u spoljnoj i bezbednosnoj političi EU za koje više neće biti potrebna jednoglasna odluka država članica, nego kvalifikokvana većina. 

Ali, nije bilo poznato, piše dalje Večernji, da se razmišlja i o tome da ta reforma načina glasanja obuhvati i politiku proširenja. 

"Ne, dakle, samu konačnu odluku o primanju novih članica, za šta će uvek biti potrebna jednoglasnost, koja podrazumeva da svaka država članica ima i mogućnost veta. Ali za neke korake u pristupnim pregovorima Komisija bi, dakle, mogla predložiti sistem odlučivanja kvalifikovanom većinom, koja podrazumeva da je za prolazak neke odluke nužna podrška najmanje 55 posto država članica koje pokrivaju najmanje 65 posto ukupnog stanovništva EU", precizira list. 

Radosław Sikorski
‏Потврђен налог @sikorskiradek
And now, as a U.S. ally, we are supposed to believe that if President Putin launches a hybrid war, or even a nuclear strike against Poland, President @realDonaldTrump will threaten to nuke him back.


Dr Paul Stott
‏ @MrPaulStott
12 сатипре 12 сати
Одговор за корисника @sikorskiradek @realDonaldTrump
You wanted Mrs Merkel as the leader of the free world. Get her to defend you........


Radosław Sikorski
‏Потврђен налог @sikorskiradek
11 сатипре 11 сати
Actually, I am rooting for Boris.

EU-Japan free trade agreement defies protectionism


The EU and Japan are about to sign an unprecedented free trade agreement, which will create one of the world's largest trading blocks. The EU said the deal sends "a message" about "shaping globalization."

The European Union (EU) and Japan are preparing to sign a trade deal that would eliminate 99 percent of tariffs, which cost businesses in the EU and Japan nearly €1 billion ($1.17 billion) annually.  

According to the European Commission, the EU-Japan "Economic Partnership Agreement" (EPA) is the largest trade deal ever negotiated by the EU and will create a trade zone covering 600 million people and nearly a third of global GDP.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will meet with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and European Council President Donald Tusk in Tokyo on Tuesday to sign the EPA at the 25th EU-Japan Summit. The agreement was supposed to have been signed during an EU-Japan summit in Brussels last Wednesday, but the meeting was canceled by Abe due to the recent flooding disaster in Japan.

The result of four years of negotiation, the EPA was finalized in late 2017 and is expected to come into force by the end of the current mandate of the European Commission in autumn 2019. The EU has called the agreement "highly ambitious and comprehensive." The total trade volume of goods and services between the EU and Japan is €86 billion.

"The EU and Japan share a common vision for an open and rules-based world economy that guarantees the highest standards. We are sending a message to other countries about the importance of free and fair trade, and of shaping globalization," EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmström said after the agreement was finalized in 2017.

High expectations for agriculture

EU agricultural exports are expected to experience a boost from the EPA, as Japanese tariffs on cheese, wine and pork will be eliminated. According to the Commission, exports of processed foods could increase by up to 180 percent.

The Thünen Institute, a German agriculture think tank, said it expects a heavy increase in pork and poultry exports from the EU to Japan.

The EPA will also open the Japanese market for more EU-based services and give EU developers access to Japanese public infrastructure projects, such as railroads. The EU estimates that 600,000 jobs in Europe are related to trade with Japan.

The agreement is also expected to increase chemical exports from the EU to Japan by 22 percent and mechanical engineering shipments by 16 percent. The Japanese computer, electric and automobile industries are all expected to benefit from the deal. For example, EU import tariffs on Japanese cars, currently at 10 percent, will gradually be reduced to zero.

German companies clearly interested

"The free trade agreement will infuse a new dynamic for business relations on both sides," said Marcus Schürmann, director of the German Chamber of Commerce in Japan (AHK Japan).

Since last year, AHK Japan has been observing growing interest from German companies that want to enter the Japanese market, either through partners or with their own subsidiaries in Japan.

This includes sectors that were previously closed for German investment along with well-established sectors for German business like engineering, automobiles, pharmaceuticals and chemical production.

The AHK estimates that there are around 12,000 German companies currently doing business in Japan. "This number could grow by double-digit percentage points in the next few years," said Schürmann.

A signal in favor of free trade

The EU and Japan also see the signing of the deal as a signal against US President Donald Trump's protectionist trade policies. Prime minister Abe views free trade as a driver of Japanese economic growth.

"Japan is pressing on the accelerator of globalization," Schürmann said, adding that in response to growing protectionist tendencies, the East Asian nation is pushing for more instead of less global cooperation.  

In fact, Japan was the main driver behind the completion of the revised Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) free trade agreement this spring, after Trump pulled the US out of the deal, agreed upon by his predecessor Barack Obama's administration. After that move, the EU and Japan also accelerated their negotiations.

The European Commission (EC) has also rejected warnings from consumer advocates about higher drinking water prices and forced privatizations of public services.

The national and local authorities retain their prerogative to keep public services in public hands, the EC stressed, adding that the agreement will not lead to deregulation and privatization of water and sanitation. Rather, Japan and the EU want to meet the highest standards of work, safety, environmental and consumer protection, the EC said.

Right-wing populism may feed off anti-migrant prejudice and the fears of modernization rampant in the middle class, but symptoms are not the illness itself. The underlying cause of political regression is the palpable disappointment that the EU in its current state is more than merely lacking the necessary political efficacy to counteract the trends of growing social inequality within and between its member states. First and foremost, right-wing populism is benefiting from the widespread perception that the EU lacks the political will to becomepolitically effective. The currently crumbling core of Europe would – in the form of an effective Euro Union – be the only conceivable force able to prevent the further destruction of our oft-invoked social model. In its current condition, the union can only accelerate this dangerous destabilization. The cause of the Trumpian dissolution of Europe is the increasing – and, God knows, realistic – awareness among the European population that the credible political will to break out of this destructive spiral is lacking. Instead, the political elites are being sucked into the timid, pollster-driven opportunism of short-term power maintenance. The lack of courage to form even a singleidea of one’s own for which a majority mustfirst be wonis all the more ironic because a majority prepared to demonstrate solidarity already exists as a fleet in being. I believe that the political elites – first and foremost the despondent social democratic parties – underestimate the disposition of their voters to engage themselves for projects reaching beyond narrow self-interest. The fact that this view isn’t just a reflection of unfulfilled philosophical ideals can be seen in the most recent publication by the research group led by Jürgen Gerhards, who for years has pursued wide-ranging and intelligent comparative studies on solidarity in 13 EU member states. He has not only found indicators for a shared European identity distinct from national identity, but also an unexpectedly high willingness to support European policies that would imply redistribution across national boundaries.

Simply looking back at the eternal rise and fall of the empires since Antiquity misses the novelty of the current situation. Despite continuing to grow together, global society remains politically fragmented. This frailty of politics provides a sense of the threshold before which people around the world recoil and shy away. I am referring here to the threshold of supranational and yet democratic forms of political integration that ask of voters that they, before casting their ballots, consider the perspectives of all citizens, even across national borders. The advocates of political realism, who have nothing but scorn for such a concept, often forget that their own theory is rooted in the Cold War conflict that involved two rational actors. Where, though, can rationality be found in today’s political arena? Viewed historically, the overdue step toward an effective Euro Union is part of the same learning curve that already took place once before with the development of national consciousnesses in the 19th century. Then too, the cognisance of national belonging beyond town, city and region did not evolve in any “natural” way. National identities were, rather, purposefully created by leading elites by adapting the shared consciousness of the populations to the already existing and wider ranging functional contexts of modern territorial states and national economies. Today, national populations are overwhelmed by the politically uncontrollable functional imperatives of a global capitalism that is being driven by unregulated financial markets. The frightened retreat behind national borders cannot be the correct response to that challenge.

Germany gains upper hand in European split over Trump trade strategy

Berlin wants to offer Washington a trade fix next week, but faces misgivings from France.

By Hans von der Burchard and Jakob Hanke
7/17/18, 8:42 PM CET



Only a week before European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker flies to Washington, France and Germany are divided over how much he should offer to U.S. President Donald Trump to end a deepening trade war, say European diplomats and officials.


But, they add, Germany has the upper hand. Berlin is shaping Juncker’s agenda, suggesting three offers that he could take to Trump on July 25 to resolve the dispute, according to people familiar with the plans.

The French are uneasy about the wisdom of such a conciliatory approach, however, and publicly accuse Trump of seeking to splinter and weaken the 28-member bloc, which he has called his “foe.”

Despite Paris’ reservations about giving away too much to the increasingly hostile U.S. president, the diplomats say that the European Commission’s powerful Secretary-General Martin Selmayr supports the German attempt at rapprochement, which makes it more likely that Juncker will offer some kind of trade fix next week.


“It’s clear that Juncker can’t go to Washington empty-handed,” one diplomat said. He stressed that Juncker’s proposals would be a political signal to Washington and would not be the formal beginning of negotiations, which would have to be approved by EU countries.


European ambassadors will meet on Wednesday to discuss the scope of Juncker’s offer — and indeed whether any offers should be made at all. France’s official position is that Europe must not strike any deal with a gun to its head, or with any country that has opted out of the Paris climate accord, as Trump’s America has done.

While Berlin is terrified by the prospect of 20 percent tariffs on cars and is desperate for a ceasefire deal, France has more fundamental suspicions that the time for compromise is over and that Trump simply wants to destroy EU unity. Paris is concerned that Trump’s next target is its sacred farm sector and is putting more emphasis on the importance of preserving a united political front against Washington.


Two diplomats said Berlin has a broad menu of offers that should be made to Trump: a bilateral deal to cut industrial tariffs, a plurilateral agreement to eliminate car duties worldwide, and a bigger transatlantic trade agreement including regulatory cooperation that potentially also comes with talks on increasing U.S. beef exports into Europe.

Making such generous offers is contentious when Trump crystallized his trade position toward Brussels on CBS news on Sunday: “I think the European Union is a foe, what they do to us in trade. Now, you wouldn’t think of the European Union, but they’re a foe.”

This undiplomatic bombshell came not long after he reportedly advised French President Emmanuel Macron to quit the EU to get a better trade deal than he was willing to offer the EU28.

In announcing Juncker’s visit on Tuesday, the White House said that he and Trump “will focus on improving transatlantic trade and forging a stronger economic partnership.”

Talking to the enemy

Diplomats note that a French-led camp in Brussels reckons Trump’s goals are strategic, and that he’s not after the sort of deal Germany is offering.

A French government official said that Washington quite simply wants to shift the EU off the stage: “Trump’s objective is that there are two big blocs: The United States and China. A multipower world with Europe as a strong player does not fit in.”

France’s Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire this month also issued a stark warning that Trump is seeking to drive a wedge between France and Germany — courting Paris, while simultaneously attacking Berlin’s trade surplus with the U.S. “In this globalized world, European countries must form a bloc, because what our partners or adversaries want is to divide us,” Le Maire said at an economic conference in Aix-en-Provence. “What the United States want, that’s to divide France and Germany.”

Despite these remarks from Le Maire, Anthony Gardner, former ambassador to the EU under the Barack Obama administration, said that he suspects the full magnitude of the threat has not sunk in. “Europe wake up; the U.S. wants to break up the EU,” he tweeted on Sunday. “Remember Belgium’s motto: L’union fait la force. [Unity creates strength]. Especially on trade. No side deals.”

One EU diplomat insisted that Brussels is not blind to these dangers in the run-up to Juncker’s visit.

Trump thinks that Europe is “too big to be controllable by DC, so it’s bad for America. Simple logic. And therefore the only deal that will bring the president to stop the trade war is the deal that breaks up the European market. I don’t quite think that’s the legacy Juncker is aiming for,” the diplomat said.

Europe is source of a deep frustration for Trump, as it runs a massive goods surplus with the U.S., at $147 billion in 2016. In particular, the U.S. president blames Germany’s mighty car exporters for this imbalance.

Leveling the field is not easy, however. With its market of 510 million consumers, Europe not only has the clout to stand up to the United States, but is increasingly setting global standards — particularly on food. This not only limits U.S. exports in Europe but also means that the European model is used in a broader trading ecosystem that includes Canada, Mexico and Japan.

New world order

Marietje Schaake, a liberal Dutch member of the European Parliament, observed that the U.S. trade strategy meshed with Trump’s political agenda.

“You could say there’s a new transatlantic relation emerging, of nationalists, populists and protectionists,” she said, pointing out that Trump’s meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin has cast doubt on America’s commitment to supporting European security.

Trump’s opposition to the EU partly builds on an long-standing American discomfort about the EU’s economic policies.

“We already saw problems during the negotiations for the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, where the U.S. didn’t like EU demands such as on geographical indications [food name protections], and certainly didn’t like that we had ambitious requests in areas like public procurement,” said Pascal Kerneis, managing director of the European Services Forum and a member of the now defunct TTIP advisory group.

Kerneis said that Trump’s trade attacks are shifting the tensions to a completely new level: “He’s attacking on all fronts, hoping to break our unity, particularly between Germany and France.”

France particularly fears that Trump’s duties on Spanish olives could only be the first salvo on Europe’s whole system of farm subsidies.

EU lawmaker Schaake said that France is right to worry about a conflagration. “Once we give in in one area, he will attack at the next one,” she said. “If we allow Trump to play Europeans against each other, sector by sector, it will be a losing game.”