Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

    The New Cold War

    Летећи Полип

    Posts : 11663
    Join date : 2018-03-03
    Age : 36
    Location : Hotline Rakovica

    The New Cold War Empty The New Cold War

    Post by Летећи Полип Fri Aug 13, 2021 12:26 am

    A bipartisan group in the House of Representatives recently introduced a bill to create an Open Translation and Analysis Center focused on China. If enacted, the bill would revive one of the best traditions of Cold War statecraft — a federally funded effort, uniting government and academia, to understand a sometimes mysterious enemy.

    The proposed initiative appears, at first glance, fairly pedestrian. OTAC would receive $80 million in annual funding to translate Chinese documents — everything from Xi Jinping’s speeches to reports by the People’s Liberation Army — and make them freely available online. This is similar to the work that the Foreign Broadcast Information Service once performed vis-à-vis the Soviet Union and other countries: Making a mass of translated material openly available for academic study.


    It may seem odd that a global superpower doesn’t already have such a resource. Yet FBIS languished after the Soviet collapse in 1991, and the intelligence community has mostly stopped making translated, open-source (i.e., unclassified) material available to non-government analysts.


    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-09/to-counter-china-u-s-needs-to-mobilize-academia
    Летећи Полип

    Posts : 11663
    Join date : 2018-03-03
    Age : 36
    Location : Hotline Rakovica

    The New Cold War Empty Re: The New Cold War

    Post by Летећи Полип Fri Aug 13, 2021 12:27 am



    _____
    Sve čega ima na filmu, rekao sam, ima i na Zlatiboru.


    ~~~~~

    Ne dajte da vas prevare! Sačuvajte svoje pojene!
    Nektivni Ugnelj

    Posts : 52641
    Join date : 2017-11-16

    The New Cold War Empty Re: The New Cold War

    Post by Nektivni Ugnelj Fri Aug 13, 2021 1:22 am

    Problem je sto se i oni koji se zalazu za to da se shvati da Amerika ne moze vise da se bavi ni hegemonijom i mora da odredi prioritete - skoro svi misle da je prioritet No.1 - Istočna Azija. Tesko ce Amerikanci dopustiti pad Tajvana, ne zato sto je toliko Tajvan za njih vojno-strateški bitan, nego je previše stvari u igri.
    Nektivni Ugnelj

    Posts : 52641
    Join date : 2017-11-16

    The New Cold War Empty Re: The New Cold War

    Post by Nektivni Ugnelj Fri Aug 13, 2021 1:24 am

    Btw, japanska vazeca doktrina je da - ako Amerikanci udju u rat zbog Tajvana, da onda ulaze i oni.
    Летећи Полип

    Posts : 11663
    Join date : 2018-03-03
    Age : 36
    Location : Hotline Rakovica

    The New Cold War Empty Re: The New Cold War

    Post by Летећи Полип Fri Aug 13, 2021 1:29 am

    Mór Thököly wrote:Problem je sto se i oni koji se zalazu za to da se shvati da Amerika ne moze vise da se bavi ni hegemonijom i mora da odredi prioritete - skoro svi misle da je prioritet No.1 - Istočna Azija. Tesko ce Amerikanci dopustiti pad Tajvana, ne zato sto je toliko Tajvan za njih vojno-strateški bitan, nego je previše stvari u igri.


    Takav je i ovaj čiča što sam ga okačio gore. S tim što je njegovo rešenje da se pusti Japan da se nabudži.
    Nektivni Ugnelj

    Posts : 52641
    Join date : 2017-11-16

    The New Cold War Empty Re: The New Cold War

    Post by Nektivni Ugnelj Fri Aug 13, 2021 7:32 am

    To se zove offshore balancing. Imao je i Trump nekakvu stone age verziju toga... Međutim, to je kraj američkom sistemu saveza u istočnoj Aziji. Posle toga lako i Japan, ali i J.Koreja mogu da dođu do zaključka da im treba atomska bomba, Japan sam ne bi branio Tajvan, no onda bi problem Sinkaku ostrva dosao do punog izrazaja (a Kinezi mrze Japance mnogo vise nego Amerikance), i, na kraju, pitanje je da li bi se ista ustedelo jer bi Kina dobila izlaz na otvoreni okean i trka u naoruzanju u istočnom kineskom moru bi lako mogla da se pretvori u trku u pomorskom naoruzanjudiljen celog pacifika, ali bez pouzdanih saveznika, jer jednom kad nekoga ostavis na cedilu... Vrlo je komplikovano.
    паће

    Posts : 41709
    Join date : 2012-02-12
    Location : wife privilege

    The New Cold War Empty Re: The New Cold War

    Post by паће Fri Aug 13, 2021 11:42 am

    Mór Thököly wrote:... jer jednom kad nekoga ostavis na cedilu... Vrlo je komplikovano.

    И није. Само нова теорија домина, али оно да сам куцнеш прву.


    _____
       the more you drink, the W.C.
       И кажем себи у сну, еј бре коњу па ти ни немаш озвучење, имаш оне две кутијице око монитора, видећеш кад се пробудиш...
    disident

    Posts : 15578
    Join date : 2016-03-28

    The New Cold War Empty Re: The New Cold War

    Post by disident Fri Aug 13, 2021 11:46 am

    Mór Thököly wrote:Problem je sto se i oni koji se zalazu za to da se shvati da Amerika ne moze vise da se bavi ni hegemonijom i mora da odredi prioritete - skoro svi misle da je prioritet No.1 - Istočna Azija. Tesko ce Amerikanci dopustiti pad Tajvana, ne zato sto je toliko Tajvan za njih vojno-strateški bitan, nego je previše stvari u igri.
    Da li bi Kina uopste pokusala da osvoji Tajvan invazijom, sobzirom da su u uzlaznoj putanji? Zasto bi se zaletali sada?


    _____
    Što se ostaloga tiče, smatram da Zapad treba razoriti
    Jedini proleter Burundija
    Pristalica krvne osvete
    Mr.Pink

    Posts : 11141
    Join date : 2014-10-28
    Age : 45

    The New Cold War Empty Re: The New Cold War

    Post by Mr.Pink Fri Aug 13, 2021 11:50 am

    zato sto bi kinezima osvajanje tajvana osigurao silicijumski monopol sada


    _____
    radikalni patrijarhalni feminista

    smrk kod dijane hrk
    паће

    Posts : 41709
    Join date : 2012-02-12
    Location : wife privilege

    The New Cold War Empty Re: The New Cold War

    Post by паће Fri Aug 13, 2021 12:00 pm

    Mr.Pink wrote:zato sto bi kinezima osvajanje tajvana osigurao silicijumski monopol sada

    А што, као не могу то да покупују иза леђа?


    _____
       the more you drink, the W.C.
       И кажем себи у сну, еј бре коњу па ти ни немаш озвучење, имаш оне две кутијице око монитора, видећеш кад се пробудиш...
    Sotir

    Posts : 8696
    Join date : 2016-10-04

    The New Cold War Empty Re: The New Cold War

    Post by Sotir Fri Aug 13, 2021 12:21 pm

    disident wrote:

    Da li bi Kina uopste pokusala da osvoji Tajvan invazijom, sobzirom da su u uzlaznoj putanji? Zasto bi se zaletali sada?
    То би значило нуклеарни рат. Макар у почетку само по бродовима. Значи не мере, и то сви знају. 

    Тај сценарио да би могло да буде сукоба врте они који траже још новца за америчку војску, и да продају савезници а још више.
    disident

    Posts : 15578
    Join date : 2016-03-28

    The New Cold War Empty Re: The New Cold War

    Post by disident Fri Aug 13, 2021 12:23 pm

    Sotir wrote:
    disident wrote:

    Da li bi Kina uopste pokusala da osvoji Tajvan invazijom, sobzirom da su u uzlaznoj putanji? Zasto bi se zaletali sada?
    То би значило нуклеарни рат. Макар у почетку само по бродовима. Значи не мере, и то сви знају. 

    Тај сценарио да би могло да буде сукоба врте они који траже још новца за америчку војску, и да продају савезници а још више.
    To i ja mislim, ali volim da cujem sta Mor ima da napise


    _____
    Što se ostaloga tiče, smatram da Zapad treba razoriti
    Jedini proleter Burundija
    Pristalica krvne osvete
    Notxor

    Posts : 8095
    Join date : 2020-09-07

    The New Cold War Empty Re: The New Cold War

    Post by Notxor Fri Aug 13, 2021 12:57 pm

    Your next AMD Ryzen CPU or Nvidia GPU could be manufactured in the USA. Following a deal between the Taiwanese Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) and the US government, a $12bn fab has been given the go-ahead to start construction in Arizona next year.

    The plant will be finished by 2024, at which point it will be able to produce up to 20,000 wafers a month—each one loaded up with chips. The new plant will be tasked with the production of 5nm chips, some of the smallest and most cutting-edge silicon currently in the early stages of production.

    https://www.pcgamer.com/tsmc-us-fab-cpu-gpu/


    _____
      Sweet and Tender Hooligan  
    паће

    Posts : 41709
    Join date : 2012-02-12
    Location : wife privilege

    The New Cold War Empty Re: The New Cold War

    Post by паће Fri Aug 13, 2021 1:02 pm

    Сад ће економисти и то да објасне неполитичким разлозима, као што су објаснили и исељавање индустрије.


    _____
       the more you drink, the W.C.
       И кажем себи у сну, еј бре коњу па ти ни немаш озвучење, имаш оне две кутијице око монитора, видећеш кад се пробудиш...
    Del Cap

    Posts : 7331
    Join date : 2019-11-04

    The New Cold War Empty Re: The New Cold War

    Post by Del Cap Fri Aug 13, 2021 1:42 pm

    Vidljiva ruka netržišta
    Nektivni Ugnelj

    Posts : 52641
    Join date : 2017-11-16

    The New Cold War Empty Re: The New Cold War

    Post by Nektivni Ugnelj Fri Aug 13, 2021 4:05 pm

    Nema nigde trzista kad su strateski resursi u pitanju.

    Disi, uvece cu
    Летећи Полип

    Posts : 11663
    Join date : 2018-03-03
    Age : 36
    Location : Hotline Rakovica

    The New Cold War Empty Re: The New Cold War

    Post by Летећи Полип Fri Aug 13, 2021 4:39 pm

    Alaj se forum progospodio sa ovim međusobnim molbama za lične analize i viđenja. Tačno ono ko oni 18. vekovni dopisnički klubovi. Tipa kružook robovlasnika tamo u Karolinama. Latifundije su im međusobno udaljene stotinama kilometara pa se dopisuju o mogućnostima Republike, da im prođe vreme.




    "Dragi moj, sa velikim nestrpljenjem iščekujemo Vaš odgovor po ovom, rekao bih, ključnom političkom pitanju"  The New Cold War 359476144

    "Poštovani, bacam se na pisanje odgovora odmah nakon sutrašnjeg neodložnog puta na vašar u Spartanburgu. Imam izvrsnog holsteinera u vezi koga imam dobar osećaj. Moj štalmajstor austrijanac se slaže. Odgovor Vam šaljem najbržim negro dečakom koga imam!"  The New Cold War 359476144
    Vilmos Tehenészfiú

    Posts : 7692
    Join date : 2020-03-05

    The New Cold War Empty Re: The New Cold War

    Post by Vilmos Tehenészfiú Fri Aug 13, 2021 4:50 pm

    U XXI veku se kaže “u četvrtak, dušo”.


    _____
    "Burundi je svakako sharmantno mesto cinika i knjiskih ljudi koji gledaju stvar sa svog olimpa od kartona."

    “Here he was then, cruising the deserts of Mexico in my Ford Torino with my wife and my credit cards and his black-tongued dog. He had a chow dog that went everywhere with him, to the post office and ball games, and now that red beast was making free with his lion feet on my Torino seats.”
    Erős Pista

    Posts : 82801
    Join date : 2012-06-10

    The New Cold War Empty Re: The New Cold War

    Post by Erős Pista Fri Aug 13, 2021 5:27 pm

    The New Cold War 3579118792


    _____
    "Oni kroz mene gledaju u vas! Oni kroz njega gledaju u vas! Oni kroz vas gledaju u mene... i u sve nas."

    Dragoslav Bokan, Novi putevi oftalmologije
    Nektivni Ugnelj

    Posts : 52641
    Join date : 2017-11-16

    The New Cold War Empty Re: The New Cold War

    Post by Nektivni Ugnelj Fri Aug 13, 2021 7:57 pm

    Ok, dakle, naravno da svako voli budzet, ali ipak i postoji nekakva nevelika sansa da dodje do sukoba. There!
    Ferenc Puskás

    Posts : 11765
    Join date : 2014-10-27
    Location : kraljevski vinogradi

    The New Cold War Empty Re: The New Cold War

    Post by Ferenc Puskás Sat Aug 14, 2021 12:37 pm

    Poštovani, na osnovu unekoliko sažete forme Vašeg dopisa zaključujem da Vas je neki bitan događaj morao omesti u pisanju.

    S nadom da se ne radi ni o čemu, što bi Vas moglo trajnije omesti u korespondenciji

    Iskreno Vaš


    _____
    Ha rendelkezésre áll a szükséges pénz, a vége általában jó.
    Nektivni Ugnelj

    Posts : 52641
    Join date : 2017-11-16

    The New Cold War Empty Re: The New Cold War

    Post by Nektivni Ugnelj Sat Aug 14, 2021 12:58 pm

    The New Cold War 3579118792
    Del Cap

    Posts : 7331
    Join date : 2019-11-04

    The New Cold War Empty Re: The New Cold War

    Post by Del Cap Fri Aug 20, 2021 5:59 pm


    China’s Neighbors Hope Afghanistan Pullout Means Pivot to Indo-Pacific

    With the withdrawal completed, Washington’s strategic shift can commence.
    By Hiroyuki Akita, a commentator for Nikkei.


    The catastrophic turmoil in Afghanistan following the withdrawal of U.S. troops has raised serious concerns in East Asian capitals. The scenes of desperate Afghans trying to get a spot on a U.S. military aircraft departing Kabul have left a deep, indelible image of declining U.S. leadership.

    However, Asian countries do not see this week’s turmoil as an event that marks a major shift in U.S. foreign policy. It was the Obama administration that decided on the withdrawal as part of a broader pullback from the greater Middle East, the Trump administration negotiated with the Taliban to set conditions, and the Biden administration only implemented what everyone already knew to be U.S. policy, even if the timing and method of withdrawal were far from ideal.

    Now, Asian countries are watching closely to see whether and how the end of military involvement in Afghanistan will affect U.S. President Joe Biden’s approach to the Indo-Pacific region. Governments from Tokyo to Taipei don’t believe that the turmoil in Afghanistan has negative repercussions for the Indo-Pacific, not least because of their region’s geostrategic importance. On the contrary, insofar as the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan allows Washington to engage more deeply in the Indo-Pacific, they even welcome the pullout.

    So far, China’s regional neighbors have applauded Biden’s diplomacy—not because he is doing anything fundamentally new but because he is continuing the Trump administration’s policies in the Indo-Pacific, just as he did in Afghanistan. Biden, like his predecessor, has defined China as a strategic competitor and emphasized his determination to meet the challenge posed by Beijing.

    Indo-Pacific countries generally support this approach. While there are differences in terms of their closeness to China and tolerance for risk, no country wants the regional order to be dominated by Beijing. Asian capitals will now be watching closely to see if the long-announced strategic shift to Asia in Washington’s strategic posture actually takes place now that U.S. forces have left Afghanistan.

    The Biden administration has been attempting to build on its predecessor’s policies by constructing a multilateral framework to deal with China. In February, Biden held the first-ever summit of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (also known as the Quad), the Indo-Pacific forum comprising Australia, India, Japan, and the United States. Since April, Biden has met with Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga and South Korean President Moon Jae-in and confirmed they will work together in their response to China, emphasizing in their joint documents the importance of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.

    This is deterrence by words.
    The purpose is to send a strong and clear message through summit meetings and joint documents that it is unacceptable for China to unilaterally upend the current global order and to call on Beijing for restraint. The Chinese government has pushed back strongly against such calls, but the latest round of diplomacy seems to have had some effect in deterring Beijing’s assertiveness.

    Take the Taiwan Strait: Since Japan and the United States signed their joint statement on April 16, provocations by Chinese military aircraft toward Taiwan have declined significantly. According to an analysis of data from the Taiwanese Ministry of Defense by the newspaper I write for, the Nikkei, 248 Chinese fighter or bomber aircraft entered Taiwan’s air defense identification zone on a total of 70 days between Jan. 7 and April 16. Between April 17 and July 25, such incursions took place on 30 percent fewer days and involved 55 percent fewer aircraft.

    China’s intention is unclear, but as the United States and Japan draw closer together and signal their willingness to cooperate on the Taiwan Strait, China may be reconsidering whether it is a good idea to escalate military provocation at this time. While China is highly unlikely to stop its military provocations against Taiwan, Biden’s diplomacy could at least complicate Beijing’s calculus.

    But what is the next step? What the U.S. administration must do now is to work with like-minded countries in the Indo-Pacific to ensure that the strategic competition with China can be won. Deterrence by words alone—without effective measures to back them up—will not let the United States and its partners gain an advantage against China.

    This won’t be easy for Biden. What makes it tricky is that the risk tolerance in relations with China varies greatly from country to country. The countries with the highest risk tolerance—and thus the greatest willingness to stand up to China—are Japan and Australia. Both are long-standing allies of the United States, which has a treaty obligation for their defense. Approximately 55,000 U.S. troops stationed in Japan provide the country with a security umbrella. It also helps that both Japan and Australia are geographically separated from China by sea.

    Conversely, the countries of mainland Southeast Asia, geographically close to China and highly dependent on the Chinese economy, have a much lower risk tolerance. Laos and Myanmar, which share land borders with China, and Cambodia, which is also close to China, typically seek to avoid antagonizing their big neighbor.

    According to a recent poll by the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute that asked respondents in 10 Southeast Asian nations which country they considered “the most influential economic power” and “the most influential political and strategic power,” China came in first place, with 76 percent and 49 percent, respectively. Only 7 percent and 30 percent of respondents, respectively, named the United States.

    What makes it tricky is that the risk tolerance in relations with China varies greatly from country to country.

    If Japan and Southeast Asia are at the extreme ends of strategic risk tolerance, India and South Korea fall somewhere in between. India is a major power with nuclear weapons but has ongoing border disputes with China and does not want to risk excessive military tension by provoking China too much. South Korea is highly dependent on China economically, trading more with China than with the United States and Japan put together. In addition, China’s cooperation is indispensable if South Korea is to have any hope of solving the North-South reunification issue.

    The higher the tension between Washington and Beijing, the more likely it will be that countries with less risk tolerance fear being caught in the middle, take a neutral position, and avoid supporting the United States. Beijing knows this, of course, and will continue to paint Washington as the interloper increasing military tension in the region. To avoid such consequences, the Biden administration would be wise not to escalate its deterrence by words. Instead, it should quietly engage like-minded countries.

    Specifically, U.S. Indo-Pacific policy must aim for two medium-term goals. The first is to rebuild the trade system and reintegrate the United States so that Indo-Pacific countries can gradually reduce their economic dependence on China. Second, the United States must work with its partners to prevent the military balance in Asia from leaning further toward Chinese dominance.

    On trade strategy, the Biden administration has been significantly behind—if it even has a strategy at all. The anti-trade Trump administration withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP). Given domestic opposition to trade agreements and the 2021 midterm elections to win, it will be difficult for the Biden administration to return to trade negotiations for the time being.

    If this situation continues, China’s domination of the Indo-Pacific trade system is likely to become overwhelming. And if China takes an irreversible lead in the regional economic order, it will have a deep impact on the security order as well.

    In November 2020, Chinese President Xi Jinping expressed a clear desire to participate in the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, the revised TPP signed in 2018 by 11 countries, not including the United States. There is a strong view in Washington that China will not be able to meet the agreement’s required standards and that Xi may be bluffing. But Beijing should not be underestimated. According to a Japanese government source, Beijing is seriously studying how Vietnam—whose economic system is closer to China’s than to Japan’s—was able to join the agreement with an aim to prepare for future negotiations.

    Global repositioning notwithstanding, allies such as Japan know they must play a greater security role.

    If it remains difficult for Washington to return to trans-Pacific trade talks, it should at least engage deeply in other areas that will define economic competition with China in the 21st century, such as rules and standards on digital trade and data protection. But the time left for the United States is not very long. Since the Trump administration’s withdrawal from the TPP in 2016, Washington has lost many years during which China’s economic dominance of the region has only strengthened. In November 2020, for example, 15 countries in the Indo-Pacific region—led by China and excluding the United States—signed the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership agreement, establishing the world’s largest free trade zone.

    On the military side, U.S. strategy seems more straightforward. The Biden administration is trying to shift resources to the Indo-Pacific to deal with China’s military expansion. The U.S. military is conducting reconnaissance activities and exercises in the Indo-Pacific at roughly the same pace as during the Trump era. However, these efforts alone are not sufficient to maintain a stable military balance in the region.

    China’s massive expansion of its defense capabilities has upended U.S. military superiority in Asia. China has about five times as many fighter jets deployed in the Indo-Pacific as the United States. That is projected to rise to eightfold by 2025, according to an estimate by the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command. Similarly, by that year, China’s regional superiority in submarines will be about 6 to 1 and in warships, 9 to 1. China is also believed to have deployed about 2,000 ground-based intermediate-range missiles, whereas the U.S. military has none in the region. If these gaps keep widening, U.S. naval activities in the Indo-Pacific could be severely constrained.

    To address this imbalance and shift resources to the region, the U.S. Defense Department is currently drafting a global posture review, a worldwide restructuring plan for the U.S. military. The completed withdrawal from Afghanistan could affect this restructuring and allow greater resources to be concentrated on the Indo-Pacific. There also seems to be ongoing debate in Washington over which military assets to deploy along the so-called first island chain in the East and South China Seas and the second island chain extending from Japan via Guam to Papua New Guinea in the Western Pacific. The Biden administration should share as much information as possible about these discussions with its regional allies since it will have a deep impact on future security cooperation.

    In September 2013, then-President Barack Obama declared that the United States would no longer play the role of world policeman. Eight years have passed since then, and Obama’s remarks seem to be turning into reality—as the world just witnessed with the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. Global repositioning notwithstanding, allies such as Japan know they must play a greater security role. That much is clear. What’s missing are concrete measures for the United States and its allies to establish a new division of responsibility and maintain stability in the Indo-Pacific.

    Hiroyuki Akita is a commentator on foreign affairs and international security issues for Nikkei.

    https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/08/19/afghanistan-withdrawal-biden-indo-pacific-china-japan-taiwan-asia-pivot/
    Nektivni Ugnelj

    Posts : 52641
    Join date : 2017-11-16

    The New Cold War Empty Re: The New Cold War

    Post by Nektivni Ugnelj Fri Aug 20, 2021 6:57 pm

    Ovo je tacka gde ja postavljam predavanja Hugh White-a The New Cold War 1399639816

    Samo ne mogu sa mobilnig.

    The outlook is rather bleak. Mislim, za svet.
    Nektivni Ugnelj

    Posts : 52641
    Join date : 2017-11-16

    The New Cold War Empty Re: The New Cold War

    Post by Nektivni Ugnelj Fri Aug 20, 2021 7:35 pm

    Mislim, nije ovo prava slika sa brojevima. Americka oprema je daleko superiornija (brodovi, avioni, da ne pocinjem o nosacima). Plus, kad se doda Japan, slika se tek dosta menja. Ali bez obzira na to, postoje legitimate sumnje u dubinu americke posvecenosti vođstvu u istocnoj aziji. Dalje, odvracanje i okruzenje je jedno kad tebi ekonomski skoro nista ne zavisi od toga (slucaj SSSR), a sasvim drugo u slucaju Kine koja je, recimo, naj eci trgovinski partner Australije.

    The New Cold War Empty Re: The New Cold War

    Post by Sponsored content


      Current date/time is Mon Nov 25, 2024 12:20 am