Virus

bruno sulak wrote:da pitam ponovo: jel juce bio prvi dan u italijanskoj krizi da im je opao broj mrtvih u odnosu na dan pre toga?

Gradske vlasti Brčko Distrikta potvrdile su jutros da su dvije osobe u tom gradu zaražene koronavirusom, riječ je o supružnicima.
Od ukupno 14 testiranih osoba u Brčkom, koronavirus je potvrđen kod dvije osobe. To znači da je u cijeloj BiH do sada 128 osoba pozitivno na ovaj virus.
Radi se o dvije mlađe osobe (1989. i 1990. godište), a radi se o supružnicima. U BiH su došli s Kariba i to preko Francuske i Srbije. Njihovo zdravstveno stanje je stabilno. Treća osoba koja ih je dovezla u BiH je u izolaciji.

beatakeshi wrote:KL, nisi neki prognozer, sad sam čitao Virus i izbori.

Statement of the German Society for Epidemiology (DGEpi) on the spread of the new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2)

Background

In December 2019, an outbreak of coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) occurred in Wuhan, a city in China with 11 million inhabitants. The virus has spread throughout China and beyond. On 12 February 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) officially named the disease caused by the novel coronavirus Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). On 11 March 2020, the WHO declared a pandemic.

Aim of the statement

Our aim is to evaluate the current situation and the available findings from an epidemiological perspective and to provide an assessment of future developments and necessary measures. For this purpose, mathematical models of the further spread of infection are presented. Due to the currently still limited knowledge on the behaviour of SARS-CoV-2, the results of the modelling are subject to numerous uncertainties. Within the framework of the models, however, a broad spectrum of possible developments and the effect of infection control measures can be presented in an orienting manner. These models are suitable for deriving current recommendations for infection control.

Clinical appearance, distribution

In order to make predictions, it is necessary in the current situation to make assumptions about the behaviour of the infectious agent. These are based on data on the occurrence of the infection observed to date and become increasingly predictable the longer the pandemic lasts. Published data suggest that infections with SARS-CoV-2 are mild to moderate in most cases, while 2-6% of cases require treatment in intensive care units.

Risk groups for severe courses are mainly elderly people [1, 2] and people with previous illnesses. Tobacco use also appears to be a risk factor for an unfavourable course of the disease [1]. Children usually have a very mild course, but can still transmit the infection. An important parameter for modelling the spread of infection is the baseline reproduction rate (R0). This indicates the average number of people infected by an infected person if no infection control measures are taken and there is no immunity in the population (this changes as the infection spreads and is referred to as the effective reproduction rate). For SARS-CoV-2, R0 is estimated at 2-3 [3]. In a scenario where NO specific control measures are implemented and no spontaneous behavioural changes occur, assuming that all individuals develop immune protection after infection, about 50-70% of the population would become infected during the course of the outbreak, initially at an exponentially increasing rate. If the epidemic were to proceed unhindered according to this scenario, the peak of the outbreak (maximum number of infected persons) would already be in spring/summer 2020 (Fig. 1).

The different curves in the graph also show slower progression of the epidemic, i.e. they show what happens when the reproduction rate is reduced by the introduction of control measures, as currently already partially implemented in Germany. The great danger of an unimpeded outbreak is that a very large number of patients would require treatment in intensive care units in a short period of time and the health system would very quickly be overwhelmed by this. Currently, the health care system in Germany has about 30,000 intensive care beds; most of these are needed on an ongoing basis for patients who require intensive care regardless of the current COVID-19 problem. When interpreting the model results, it is noticeable that even moderately slowed progression of the infection spread would lead to decompensation of the health care system. Only a reduction of the effective reproductive rate to a range very close to 1 (1 to 1.2) would enable a course within the existing capacities of the health care system. Controlling the speed of propagation into this narrow range seems practically inconceivable, because even a small increase in the reproductive rate would lead to the health care system being overtaxed.

Another possible strategy would be to reduce the effective reproductive rate below 1 and thus contain the epidemic. The decisive measure here is, in addition to the already established infection control strategies (e.g. reduction of the probability of transmission by consistent hand hygiene, isolation of infected persons, quarantine of contact persons), to achieve a restriction of social contacts to the bare minimum in the entire population. If it is possible to contain the spread of infection in Germany in this way until there are no new cases, the introduction of the infection must continue to be prevented, or individual cases that occur must be quickly identified and isolated using a broad-based testing strategy.

Figs. 2a and 2b show in more detail the great effect of the time of the beginning of containment on the further course of the spread and the necessary resources. We assume that the measures taken so far have already brought about a reduction in the effective reproduction rate; the extent is not clear. Therefore, an infection spread is shown that continues from 15 March with the effective reproduction rate of 1.5 or 2 and 5 scenarios with further contact-reducing measures 7, 14, 21, 28 or 35 days later are introduced. The scenarios show that additional measures would have to be introduced within the next two weeks in order not to exceed the capacity of intensive care units. It is also likely that these cuts would have to be maintained over the next few months in order to completely contain the spread of infection.

Currently, there is a short time window in which the decision between containing or slowing down the spread of infection can be made without overburdening the health care system. In both cases, consistent implementation is necessary for a longer period of time.

Since there is currently no causal therapy or preventive vaccination, it is important in the current epidemiological situation to convince the population to contribute voluntarily and consistently to limiting transmission. Although not all regions of Germany are equally affected at present, it is necessary to implement appropriate spread-limiting measures everywhere as a precautionary measure.

We support the measures that have already been implemented by the Federal Government and we urge that the implementation of further measures be critically reviewed. We should always be aware that these restrictions on civil rights represent a considerable human, social, economic and also health-related burden for the people and companies in our country. It is therefore necessary that a public debate be held on these issues - in full knowledge of the different scenarios, the impending dangers and our own possibilities. A continuous assessment and evaluation of the situation will continue to be necessary.

Version from 21.03.2020

The modelling of the course of the epidemic is based on a SEIR model with the following parameters: pre-infectious time - 5.5 days, infectious time - 3 days, 2-6% of all infected persons need intensive care with a delay of 10 days and an intensive care period of 10-20 days. At time 0 (start of measures) 40,000 persons are already infected but have no symptoms and are not contagious for the others, 10,000 persons are infectious. Some of the persons may (still) be asymptomatic. The infectious persons are not necessarily all tested - to compare this number with the confirmed cases, one would have to make an assumption about how fully they are tested)

Spoiler:

Spoiler:

Spoiler:

Kondo wrote:I sta je na kraju pravilo za danas? 18 do 05 ili 13 do 05? A za sutra, ceo dan policijski cas.

ZAŠTITNE MASKE STUŽU U APOTEKE Cena po komadu maksimalno 120 dinara, a evo KOLIKO IH MOŽETE KUPITI

Za vreme vanrednog stanja maloprodajna cena zaštitnih maski koje privrednim subjektima distribuira RFZO može biti najviše 120 dinara sa uračunatim PDV-om, a krajnji kupac po kupovini ih ne može kupiti više od 10.
To je predviđeno Uredbom o ograničavanju maloprodajne cene zaštitnih sredstava za vreme vanrednog stanja nastalog usled bolesti COVID-19 izazvane virusom SARS-CoV-2, koju je juče objavio Službeni glasnik.

Republički fond za zadravstveno osiguranje distribuira zaštitnu opremu - maske u cilju blagovremenog i ravnomernog snabdevanja tržišta, a na osnovu zahteva, odnosno narudžbenice, pravnim licima koja se bave distribucijom isporučuje najmanje 500.000 maski.

"Pravna lica uz narudžbenicu - trebovanje dostavljaju spisak privrednih subjekata koji se bave maloprodajom zaštitnih sredstava za dalju prodaju traženih količina", navodi se u Uredbi i dodaje da "Vlada posebnim aktom odobrava isporuku i određuje uslove isporuke zasštitnih sredstava pravnim licima”.

Maloprodajna cena za zaštitna sredstva nabavljenih po ovoj Urebdi može maksimalno iznositi 120 dinara po komadu, sa uračunatim PDV-om, a privredni subjekti koji se bave maloprodajom zaštitnih sredstava za vreme vanrednog stanja po jednoj kupoprodaji mogu isporučiti fizičkom licu - krajnjem kupcu najviše 10 komada zaštitnih sredstava - maski.

Novčane kazne za nepoštovanje obaveza propisanih uredbom i pružanje neistinitih podatak su od 50.000 dinara do dva miliona dinara.

Gargantua wrote:Zaključajte se svi, hranu i lekove narucujte onlajn.
Šta, kod vas to ne radi tako? Jbg.

An uninsured COVID-19 patient just got her medical bill: $34,927.43. @abbyabrams has the story. https://t.co/jOPJJ4VqKG

— Abby Vesoulis (@abbyvesoulis) March 20, 2020

When Danni Askini started feeling chest pain, shortness of breath and a migraine all at once on a Saturday in late February, she called the oncologist who had been treating her lymphoma. Her doctor thought she might be reacting poorly to a new medication, so she sent Askini to a Boston-area emergency room. There, doctors told her it was likely pneumonia and sent her home.

Over the next several days, Askini saw her temperature spike and drop dangerously, and she developed a cough that gurgled because of all the liquid in her lungs. After two more trips to the ER that week, Askini was given a final test on the seventh day of her illness, and once doctors helped manage her flu and pneumonia symptoms, they again sent her home to recover. She waited another three days for a lab to process her test, and at last she had a diagnosis: COVID-19.

A few days later, Askini got the bills for her testing and treatment: $34,927.43.

Predsednik Srbije Aleksandar Vučić bio je upitan o koronavirusu... "Statistički, više ljudi imire od ujeda komaraca", rekao [je] on.
...
"Dakle, nema mesta panici, ja masku da stavljam neću".