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Israel’s window of legitimacy
Will America pull the plug on Israel’s invasion of Gaza? 
Israel is racing to destroy Hamas as a global backlash grows
Nov 7th 2023

It was hardly a warm welcome, although that no doubt came as little surprise. Antony Blinken, America’s secretary of state, spent the past few days shuttling across the Middle East, his second such trip since the start of the Gaza war on October 7th. In Amman his Jordanian counterpart, Ayman Safadi, told Mr Blinken to “stop this madness”. The language he heard in private across the region was even tougher. His meeting with Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian president, lasted less than an hour and ended with no joint statement. Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey did not bother to meet him at all.
Mr Blinken’s chilly reception was one sign of mounting anger at Israel’s war in Gaza. Now in its second month, it has killed more than 10,000 Palestinians and damaged or destroyed more than 11% of the buildings in the enclave. It has enraged the Arab world, inflamed Western capitals and drawn condemnation from many world leaders.
Israeli generals still talk about waging a long campaign that will last up to a year. On November 7th Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu told ABC News that Israel would be in charge of Gaza’s security for an “indefinite period”. In practice, though, what Israeli officers call their “window of legitimacy” is probably far shorter. How fast that window closes will depend largely on America, which supplies Israel with munitions, diplomatic support and an aid package worth perhaps $14bn. If Joe Biden wants the war to end, Israel will be hard pressed to ignore him.
So far, he does not. Although he now supports “humanitarian pauses” to allow more aid to enter Gaza, Mr Biden has rejected calls for an outright ceasefire. But administration officials have made clear, in a series of leaks, that they doubt Israel has a coherent exit strategy in Gaza. They complain that Mr Netanyahu is barely willing to discuss the topic, and say they want to put their concerns on the record now lest the war end badly. To think a war risks becoming a quagmire but to support it nonetheless is an untenable position—especially when American voters agree.
A poll by The Economist and YouGov found that a plurality of Americans (41%) believe Mr Biden is handling the war badly. A Quinnipiac survey of registered voters found that 51% of independents and 66% of people aged 18 to 34 disapprove of his policy. His ratings have plummeted amongst Arab-American voters, which could hurt him next year in crucial swing states like Michigan. Sources in Washington think it will still be several more weeks before Mr Biden pivots to talk of a truce—but do not doubt that he will make such a shift.
Arab states certainly hope so. Fears of a multi-front war, which were acute in the days after Hamas’s massacre, have eased. Hizbullah, the Lebanese Shia militia, continues to fire rockets daily at Israel, but Hassan Nasrallah, the group’s leader, signalled in a speech on November 3rd that he was not yet interested in all-out war. The Houthis, a Shia militant group in Yemen, have lobbed drones and missiles at Israel but are too far away to pose a strategic threat.
Many autocrats across the Middle East would be happy to see Israel smash Hamas. But they are also nervous that the war will mobilise their subjects, many of whom are already restive about awful economic conditions. This adds to pressure on both America, which has heard their fears for weeks now, and Israel, which is keen to preserve its recent diplomatic gains in the Arab world.
So far, most countries have made do with symbolic rebukes of Israel. On November 2nd the lower house of Bahrain’s parliament announced that the country would recall its ambassador from Israel. The chamber has few powers; recalling ambassadors is not one of them. Envoys from both countries had gone home weeks earlier. Parliament, in a fit of populist politics, made it seem as if lawmakers had decreed their return. Officials in both Bahrain and Israel say diplomatic ties remain intact.
Four days later King Abdullah of Jordan announced that his air force had dropped a shipment of medical aid into Gaza. Jordan would not have taken such action without seeking Israel’s approval, which the Israeli army later confirmed it had indeed given. By omitting that detail from his announcement, though, the king could act as if he had challenged Israel’s blockade of Gaza.
Such gestures do not earn much goodwill at home, however. Even the United Arab Emirates (uae), Israel’s closest Arab ally, has grown increasingly critical (at least in public). Anwar Gargash, a foreign-policy adviser to the uae’s president, said at a conference on November 4th that America should push for a ceasefire, “the quicker the better”.
Then there is Israel itself. Morale is high in the army, and Israelis seem willing to accept far more casualties than they normally would (34 Israeli soldiers have been killed so far). But the public is furious with a prime minister more concerned with his political survival than with battlefield strategy. Protesters gathered at Mr Netanyahu’s house on November 4th to demand his resignation.
Another question is the economy. The month-long Lebanon war in 2006 cost around 9.5bn shekels ($2bn at the time or 1.3% of GDP), whereas the last big Gaza conflict in 2014 cost 7bn shekels (0.6% of GDP). This one may be even costlier. The Bank of Israel thinks the government’s deficit will climb to 3% of GDP next year, compared with a 0.6% surplus in 2022; some outside analysts put the estimate above 5%. Mobilising 360,000 reservists has also left parts of the Israeli economy with a shortage of workers, even if some of them have now been sent home.
Israeli officials hope that the fierce bombardment of the war’s first month is now giving way to a new phase. Gaza city is surrounded by the IDF, and ground troops and armour are drawing closer to the area where the IDF says Hamas has its headquarters and where a nucleus of its fighters and leadership are holed up underground. If the IDF can soon destroy these facilities and kill large numbers of militants, some officers believe that it will have partially met its mission of depleting Hamas’s ability to run Gaza. The war would then move into a more limited campaign of ground raids.
That could ease international pressure, which spikes every time Israeli jets bomb a bakery or a refugee camp, and ease pressure on the economy by allowing the army to release some reservists. The Israelis also recognise that relieving the humanitarian crisis in Gaza could buy more time. On November 6th the uae announced that it would set up a 150-bed field hospital in Gaza, a move co-ordinated with Israel. Mr Netanyahu now says he is open to “tactical little pauses, an hour here, an hour there” to allow more aid to enter.
Arguably, though, the biggest challenge to Israel’s international legitimacy is Mr Netanyahu himself. His government is stacked with radicals. Amichai Eliyahu, the heritage minister, recently suggested dropping a nuclear bomb on Gaza. Zvi Sukkot, the new head of a parliamentary committee that oversees the occupied West Bank, is a far-right ideologue who has been investigated by Israel’s Shin Bet for his alleged extremist activity.
When they met in Ramallah, Mr Abbas told Mr Blinken that the Palestinian Authority, which controls parts of the West Bank, could return to Gaza to govern the enclave after the war. Such an outcome would please both the Israeli army and the Americans.
But Mr Abbas added that it would only happen “within the framework of a comprehensive political solution”—in other words, as a step towards a two-state solution, which Mr Netanyahu has spent his entire political career fighting against. If he remains in office, there will be no serious talk of an endgame in Gaza. America’s patience will run out and Israel will find its room for manoeuvre increasingly limited. 

Channel 4 News correspondent Secunder Kermani today went into Gaza with Israeli forces. He saw an apocalyptic landscape and desperate Gazans evacuating to the south.

Warning: Distressing images. pic.twitter.com/6Uncrr55Rk

— Channel 4 News (@Channel4News) November 8, 2023

The @G7 is more united than ever. We stand united in our condemnation of Russia’s war in Ukraine, in support of Israel’s right to defend itself in accordance with international law, and in maintaining a rules-based international order. pic.twitter.com/XQgOA54Yu9

— Secretary Antony Blinken (@SecBlinken) November 8, 2023

"No reoccupation of Gaza after the conflict ends. No attempt to blockade or besiege Gaza. No reduction in the territory of Gaza," [US Secretary of State Antony] Blinken said on Wednesday at a press conference in Tokyo.
Blinken said there may be a need for "some transition period" at the end of the conflict, but post-crisis governance "must include Palestinian-led governance and Gaza unified with the West Bank under the Palestinian Authority."

The deputy Prime Minister of #Belgium is saying it is time for sanctions against #Israel. #moreofthis pic.twitter.com/B9NX65SQVo

— AHMED | أحمد (@ASE) November 8, 2023

BREAKING: Israel will implement 4-hour pauses in fighting in areas of northern Gaza Strip every day, with announcements given three hours in advance, White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby says. https://t.co/QGwY0LhabS

— NBC News World (@NBCNewsWorld) November 9, 2023

Benjamin Netanyahu rejected a deal for a five-day ceasefire with Palestinian militant groups in Gaza in return for the release of some of the hostages held in the territory, according to sources familiar with the negotiations.
The sources said the Israeli prime minister rejected the deal outright in early negotiations after militants from Hamas staged an unprecedented incursion into Israeli territory on 7 October, killing an estimated 1,400 people.
Negotiations resumed after the launch of the Israeli ground offensive on 27 October, but the same sources said Netanyahu has continued to take a tough line on proposals involving ceasefires of different durations in exchange for a varying number of hostages.
Others indicated that negotiations which took place prior to the ground invasion involved a far larger number of hostages, with Hamas proposing the release of dozens of foreign nationals captive in Gaza. (...)
According to three sources familiar with the talks, the original deal on the table involved freeing children, women, elderly and sick people among the hostages in exchange for a five-day ceasefire, but the Israeli government turned this down and demonstrated its rejection with the launch of the ground offensive. (...)
Indirect negotiations between Israeli officials and Hamas, mediated by Qatar as the two groups do not officially have contact, are now focused on the possibility of a ceasefire lasting between one and three days, tied to the release of between 10 and 15 hostages.
A source with knowledge of the negotiations said the push to cease hostilities for a short time and exchange the small number of hostages was a litmus test and a gateway to further hostage talks.
Officials from Egypt, the United Nations and a western diplomat told Associated Press that the deal currently on the table would also allow more aid, including small amounts of fuel, to enter Gaza after Israel largely cut supplies of food, water, aid and fuel days after Hamas’s incursion. US officials told AP that the Biden administration suggested linking the length of the ceasefire to the number of hostages for release.

NEW - Biden says there is "no possibility" for a ceasefire in Gaza.pic.twitter.com/dJJHGwiWtu

— Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) November 9, 2023

The gathering in Paris brought together officials from Western and Arab nations, the United Nations and nongovernmental organizations, with the aim of providing urgent aid to civilians in the Gaza Strip that is being pounded by Israel in its war against Hamas. Israeli authorities weren’t invited but have been informed of the talks, Macron’s office said. (...)

More than 1.5 million people — or about 70% of Gaza’s population — have fled their homes, and an estimated $1.2 billion is needed to respond to the crisis in Palestinian areas.

Macron reiterated calls for a humanitarian pause in Israel’s operations. He said that by attacking Israel on Oct. 7, Hamas “shouldered the responsibility for exposing Palestinians to terrible consequences,” and he again defended Israel’s right to defend itself.

But Macron also stressed that civilians must be protected. “It’s absolutely essential. It is non-negotiable,” he said.

“All lives have equal worth and there are no double standards for those of us with universal and humanist values,” he said.

“Fighting terrorism can never be carried out without rules. Israel knows that. The trap of terrorism is for all of us the same: giving in to violence and renouncing our values,” he added.

Longer term, Macron also said diplomatic work must resume on bringing peace to the Middle East, with a two-state solution. “We must learn from our errors and no longer accept that peace in the Middle East always be pushed back to later,” he said.

Israeli military official says Gaza is theirs:

“We returned, we were expelled from here almost 20 years ago. We started this battle divided & ended it united. We are fighting for the Land of Israel. this is our land! And that is the victory, to return to our lands” pic.twitter.com/IG3nB3zFAW

— Younis Tirawi | يونس (@ytirawi) November 9, 2023