Rat u Ukrajini

Military briefing: Russia prepares its spring offensive
Ukraine’s allies expect Moscow to alter combat tactics and employ more air power in planned attack



Fighting in Ukraine is often compared to the first world war: massed troops, artillery barrages, and grinding trench warfare that seeks to wear down the enemy.

But when Russia’s long expected spring offensive begins, there will be no proverbial whistle to mark the moment Russian troops attack and go “over the top”.

It will arrive unheralded, from multiple directions and probably using tactics unlike those Russia has employed so far — including a greater role for its air force, military officials warned.

“The Russian offensive is not going to be like the Somme . . . It will happen in different ways, on different parts of the front line and at different times,” a senior western defence official said. “We have to be careful about thinking the offensive will be a single thing.”

In some parts of Ukraine, the offensive has already begun. “It’s been a week since the Russian attack started,” said Taras Berezovets, a Ukrainian special forces officer. “We expect more Russian troops to become engaged in offensives.”

Russian forces have mounted probing attacks in the north around Kreminna, and the south around Vuhledar. Russian artillery strikes are also running at their highest rate since last summer, with as many as 100 strikes a day.

For now, there is no sign that Russia has yet deployed all the pieces of equipment needed for a concerted assault across Ukraine, which would be the first since the Kremlin launched the full-scale invasion in February last year.

But there are ominous signs on the ground. According to western intelligence, Russia is positioning fighter jets, bombers and helicopters to potentially provide air support for a land offensive.

Moscow has also established new army field camps at Voronezh and Kursk, near Ukraine’s northeastern border, exactly where it positioned troops a year ago prior to the invasion.

“We believe that these camps house reservist [soldiers], and it is the first evidence confirming their deployment closer to the frontline,” said Konrad Muzyka, director of Rochan consulting and a defence analyst who tracks the war. “It suggests that they could soon be moved to Ukraine. Hence the tempo of attacks will increase.”

Russian president Vladimir Putin’s eventual goal, analysts said, is to have tens of thousands of these conscripts drop down from the north, join up with Russian forces pressing up from the south and seize the entire Donbas region in eastern Ukraine.

“It is the task that Putin has set General Gerasimov [the commander-in-chief of Russia’s forces in Ukraine],” said Serhii Kuzan, chair of the Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Centre think-tank in Kyiv. “Our task is to hold our defensive lines and exhaust the offensive potential of the enemy.”

So far, Ukraine is successfully holding the line — most spectacularly around Vuhledar, a key logistics hub that Moscow wants to capture because it would help secure the territory that links Crimea to Russia.

Over the past several days, elite Russian troops were defeated and repulsed after they attempted an attack. Ukrainian forces are also holding on at Bakhmut, inflicting huge losses on the enemy, although taking heavy losses themselves.

“Putin is impatient. He wants a minimum amount of holdings. And some of his loyalists will say, ‘Yes, sir, we’ll do that,’” said Dara Massicot, a senior policy researcher at the Rand think-tank. “He’s using brute force methods to try to do it, just human waves and artillery fire . . . It’s very costly.”

To put those losses in perspective, the US estimates 200,000 Russian troops have been wounded or killed over the past year. That is equivalent to almost 4,000 soldiers a week, or 17,000 a month.

At that rate, the 300,000 fresh reservists that Russia has mobilised will last 17 months. But as Mike Martin, a visiting war studies fellow at King's College London, said combat units are usually considered ineffective when casualties hit 30 per cent — so those reservists would last far less.

Russia “isn’t going to [be able to] take over Ukraine with these tactics”, Martin said.

Furthermore, the recently mobilised Russian troops are less well prepared and equipped than those involved in last year’s attack. “Their level is much, much lower,” Kuzan said.

That is partly why western officials expect Russia to change its “meat grinder” approach when the spring offensive gets under way. “The Russian army won’t continue to be as bad as it has been,” said the first official. “It was inevitable they would get better and learn some lessons.”

One change may be an increased role for Russia’s air force. As much as 80 per cent is thought to still be in good condition and western intelligence believes Russia is preparing to throw these jets and helicopters into the war.

“The Russian air force has not so far been employed at the tempo you’d expect . . . and I expect we will see more air force use in coming months,” a senior US defence department official said.

For now, the weather in eastern Ukraine is not ripe for a full-scale offensive. Freezing temperatures that firm the ground and enable ground offensives are expected this week but are then forecast to rise above zero, turning fields to mud.

When the weather does turn to spring and Russia launches a full attack, both sides are bracing for hard and bloody fighting. Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the notorious Wagner paramilitary group, last week said it would take “a year and a half to two years” for Russia to take the Donbas.

“There will be some very tough weeks and sometimes Ukraine will go backwards and other times go forward,” the first official said. “This could be a long and very difficult year for the Ukrainians.”

Mór Thököly wrote:Slusao sam novog Kotkina (well...). Ima jednu odlicnu poentu: 

svi pricaju o war of attrition. Ok. Postoje dva nacina da pobedis u takvom ratu: mozes da znacajno povecas svoj war material ili mozes da unistavas war material protivnika. Ovo drugo otpada jer ne moze se bombardovati Rusija, dakle...

disident wrote:

Mór Thököly wrote:Slusao sam novog Kotkina (well...). Ima jednu odlicnu poentu: 

svi pricaju o war of attrition. Ok. Postoje dva nacina da pobedis u takvom ratu: mozes da znacajno povecas svoj war material ili mozes da unistavas war material protivnika. Ovo drugo otpada jer ne moze se bombardovati Rusija, dakle...

Link pls

MNE wrote:dobro, ali kako će tačno Rusija da odustane od Ukrajine i zbog čega? Održavamo status kvo na ratištu dok Putin ne umre i da se nadamo da će da dođe neki pacifista?

Filipenko wrote:Ne, ajmo da vidimo zasto ste odjebali mirovni dogovor zvani Minsk 2.

Posle toga zasto je odjeban dogovor ubrzo nakon pocetka rata o kome je pricao Benet.


Meni iz tih stvari ne deluje da su Rusi imali nameru da satru sve do Lavova. I niko nije trazio od Ukrajine da odustane od Ukrajine, vec da ne ide u vojni savez koji je Rusiju zacrtao za smrtnog neprijatelja.

Mór Thököly wrote:

Filipenko wrote:Ne, ajmo da vidimo zasto ste odjebali mirovni dogovor zvani Minsk 2.

Posle toga zasto je odjeban dogovor ubrzo nakon pocetka rata o kome je pricao Benet.


Meni iz tih stvari ne deluje da su Rusi imali nameru da satru sve do Lavova. I niko nije trazio od Ukrajine da odustane od Ukrajine, vec da ne ide u vojni savez koji je Rusiju zacrtao za smrtnog neprijatelja.

I to je Zelenski prihvatio nekoliko dana pred rat. Za Lavov ne znam, ali Kijev su definitivno imali nameru da uzmu. I onda oni da im diktiraju sta je tacno Ukrajina i kolika je tacno.

Mór Thököly wrote:Zele da Ukrajinci napadnu u pravcu Melitopolja, koliko se meni cini.

fikret selimbašić wrote:

Mór Thököly wrote:

I to je Zelenski prihvatio nekoliko dana pred rat. Za Lavov ne znam, ali Kijev su definitivno imali nameru da uzmu. I onda oni da im diktiraju sta je tacno Ukrajina i kolika je tacno.

Kakav Minsk 2? To je i dalje rasprava u tonu Informerove naslovnice. Putin jasno izgovori šta je cilj SVO. njegova vojska na terenu pokušava da taj cilj ostvari, a fanovi otrcaše tastature da razvodne ono što je lično Car izgovorio. Nema Ukrajine osim u sastavu Rusije, nema ukrajinske nacije svi smo mi Rusi. Ukrajina je boljševička greška itd. Sve što gledamo unazad godinu dana radi se tačno po tom planu, druga je stvar što baš i ne ide kao podmazano. Džaba pogibe Mr. Pink, on je bar otvoreno drkao na azijske mase koje dolaze da porobe Evropu, on sam ih je tako nazvao. Minsk 2. je februar na biciklu, neophodna pauza koju je Rusija iskoristila da se pripremi za invaziju a Ukrajina za odbranu. Baška što je Rusija ta koja ga je prva prekršila kad je nakon potpisa pokrenula ofanzivu na Debaljcevo. Nije ovde korijen ni Minsk 2. ni 2014. već 1991. samo se čekalo da pod pravim vođom Ruisja dovoljno ojača za poduhvat povratka Ukrajine pod svoju kontrolu. I nije samo Ukrajina cilj, stalno to ponavljaju i Putin i njegovi sokolovi.

Ukraine troops prepare for Russian spring offensive: ‘Putin has more men, but our mentality beats any weapon’

Wednesday February 15 2023, 4.30pm GMT, The Times

When Russian tanks began thundering over Ukraine’s northeast border into the Sumy region last year there was only a handful of professional Ukrainian soldiers and no heavy weaponry to stop them.

“People had no idea what was happening,” Vitaly, a volunteer from the border village of Slavhorod in Sumy, said. As the reality of the Russian invasion sunk in, volunteers began arming themselves with petrol bombs while others in the newly formed territorial defence rallied vehicles to surround a column of Russian armoured vehicles.

They torched the cars, leaving the Russians nowhere to escape before dragging them from the fighting vehicles, which they commandeered for themselves.

A year on, after some heavy toil in a workshop, a fresh paint job and new ammunition, the captured Russian vehicles now form the backbone of a new mechanised brigade along this border as Ukraine braces for an anticipated new offensive from Moscow.

All eyes have been focused on the brutal fight for Bakhmut, the battered mining town in the Donbas where Ukrainian troops are barely hanging on in the face of a Russian assault sending human waves into what has become known as the “meat grinder”.

Russian offensives north of Bakhmut have also begun, as well as repeated failed assaults on Vuhledar in which Russian soldiers were forced to abandon dozens of armoured vehicles, new trophies for the Ukrainians.

While Moscow’s most likely objectives still remain in and around the Donbas, Ukrainian officials are warning of a far broader offensive from multiple directions at different times. This includes, potentially, the border around Sumy from which Russia launched part of its offensive to capture the capital, Kyiv, when it invaded in February last year.

In a network of trenches from where the Russian lines are visible, Sumy’s new defenders are assessing what lies on the other side as the anniversary of the invasion approaches. The signs are ominous. “There are 10,000 Russian troops massed on the other side of the border,” senior lieutenant Andrei Hulakov said.

“It’s the largest concentration there has ever been here. And they have built a field hospital,” he added, one of the key developments last year that helped persuade Ukraine’s security apparatus that the Russian build-up was not just an elaborate bluff. “That is a dead giveaway that they are planning action.”

Not only that, but the Russians have also been spotted laying gravel on the routes leading to the border along which any armoured vehicles would have to travel. Last year thick mud impeded their progress. This year the ground is as yet still hard in the sub-zero temperatures.

At least half the men massed there are the new recruits Russia assembled after a “partial mobilisation” that also prompted a mass exodus of young Russian men eager to avoid deployment.

“They are not very impressive,” Hulakov says. The others are more hardened, having fought already in the east. There are fewer tanks than last year but “many more men”, underlining the threat Ukraine faces with a new Russian offensive: the sheer scale of manpower the enemy now has at its disposal.

The more skilled of Russia’s operatives, its special forces commandos and intelligence agents, are already probing Ukraine’s defences. Fire fights with groups of up to five reconnaissance troops, known here as “saboteurs”, take place every day. Since the new year cross-border shelling has intensified, with some 200 strikes a day along the 350-mile border Sumy shares with Russia, setting civilian nerves jangling.

The presence of strangers brings people out of their houses to check who is sniffing around. Teachers in Slavhorod caught one in their village last week and turned him over to territorial defence. It turned out they were right in their assessment that he was a “saboteur”.

In a snow-covered field close to the front, men from the 117th Brigade of the Territorial Defence Forces, now fully incorporated into the regular military, practise firing the machineguns from their captured and reconditioned BMP-2s. The Z signs they were all marked with have all gone, painted over with new camouflage, the Ukrainian flag and trident and new call numbers signifying their place in the makeshift fleet.

Ukraine is still waiting for western tanks promised all too recently, with Germany’s vice-chancellor Robert Habeck admitting the delivery was a little too late. “Everyone is expecting a terrible Russian offensive,” he said on Wednesday. “Time is pressing.”

The expected spring offensive may look nothing like the invasion a year ago. “The Russians have learnt a lot of lessons,” Hulakov admits. “But so have we.”

Western intelligence has picked up signs of fixed-wing aircraft and helicopters being mobilised for a potential air assault. Russia’s air force is less badly degraded than previously thought: 80 per cent is intact, though Moscow’s hesitancy in using more air power could be down to a shortage of skilled pilots and the fear of losing those that remain.

While Ukrainian troops say they are far better prepared across the entire country than they were when Russia invaded last year, anxieties remain over the unknowns of Moscow’s plans. Taras Savchenko, the governor of Sumy, admits that authorities are unclear whether the intensified action along the border is a ruse to tie down troops who might otherwise deploy to the Donbas, or the prelude to another cross-border assault.

Last year half of the up to 300 Russian tanks that crossed here turned east towards Poltava and Kharkiv while the remainder thundered on towards Kyiv. The Russians were chased out only in April, after which the construction of a vast network of trenches along the border began.

Peering out across the minefield separating them from the Russians are Oleksii, a former border guard who was stationed close by during last year’s invasion, when border posts were destroyed by Grad missiles before the tanks rolled in, and Serhii, who worked in a baby food factory before signing up.

Those taking part in the firing exercises include an artist with a love of Rudyard Kipling and a former criminal lawyer with 20 years of courtroom experience. In his New Year’s Day address, President Zelensky singled out Sumy’s resistance efforts during last year’s invasion, describing how ordinary civilians became the “bone in the throat” of the Russians.

This time, they hope to be even more. “It won’t be an easy walk in with their flags,” Hulakov says. Savchenko agrees. “This time we are more prepared mentally. It’s more important than any weapon.”

Filipenko wrote:

fikret selimbašić wrote:

Kakav Minsk 2? To je i dalje rasprava u tonu Informerove naslovnice. Putin jasno izgovori šta je cilj SVO. njegova vojska na terenu pokušava da taj cilj ostvari, a fanovi otrcaše tastature da razvodne ono što je lično Car izgovorio. Nema Ukrajine osim u sastavu Rusije, nema ukrajinske nacije svi smo mi Rusi. Ukrajina je boljševička greška itd. Sve što gledamo unazad godinu dana radi se tačno po tom planu, druga je stvar što baš i ne ide kao podmazano. Džaba pogibe Mr. Pink, on je bar otvoreno drkao na azijske mase koje dolaze da porobe Evropu, on sam ih je tako nazvao. Minsk 2. je februar na biciklu, neophodna pauza koju je Rusija iskoristila da se pripremi za invaziju a Ukrajina za odbranu. Baška što je Rusija ta koja ga je prva prekršila kad je nakon potpisa pokrenula ofanzivu na Debaljcevo. Nije ovde korijen ni Minsk 2. ni 2014. već 1991. samo se čekalo da pod pravim vođom Ruisja dovoljno ojača za poduhvat povratka Ukrajine pod svoju kontrolu. I nije samo Ukrajina cilj, stalno to ponavljaju i Putin i njegovi sokolovi.

Sve ti verujem. Fali samo velikosrpska agresija. Medjutim, postavljaju se dva pitanja:

1) Ako su znali da je to sve fora, sto su potpisivali Minsk 2?
2) Ako su potpisali Minsk 2, sto ga nisu sproveli nimalo?

Naravno, postoji mogucnost da su 2014. znali sta ce Putin izjaviti 2022. godine, ali nekako sumnjam u to. Najzad, ne kapiram kada cete da naucite da napravite razliku izmedju retorike govora kojim se poziva u rat SVO i potpisanih medjunarodnih dokumenata sa pratecim obavezama. Evo i Albanci nece da formiraju ZSO jer im se ne svidja Vuciceva retorika. Ni meni se ne svidja sta Milo prica vec 30 godina, hocemo li da isterujemo Crnogorce?

Opak sam i strašan. Imam i kandže i zube." Ruski predsjednik Vladimir Putin to je navodno rekao britanskom premijeru Davidu Cameronu kada su njih dvojica raspravljali o kemijskom oružju koje je tijekom Sirijskog građanskog rata koristio predsjednik Sirije i saveznik Moskve Bašar al-Asad i potezima koje je Rusija spremna povući.
Putin je potom rekao da će strana koja želi uspjeti u tom konfliktu morati posegnuti za barbarskim metodama poput onih koje su Sjedinjene Američke Države koristile u zatvoru Abu Ghraib u Iraku.
"Ja sam bivši KGB-ovac", dodao je Putin. Iako je ruski predsjednik spomenuto rekao u polušali, bilo je jasno da je u toj šali bilo dosta istine.

Filipenko wrote:E da, i Putin je toliko poricao ukrajinsku naciju i zeleo da unisti ukrajinsku drzavu da je i po pocetku rata pregovarao i bio raspolozen da se vrati na polazne polozaje u zamenu za obecanje da nece u Nato, tako mi jevrejskog premijera Beneta.

Mislim, ne kapiram zasto mislite da sto ponavljate i titrate kvotove jedni drugima u krug ne daje snagu vasim tzv. argumentima.

Russian forces are doubling down on defenses across southern Ukraine in expectation of a spring counteroffensive.

This thread shows some of the areas where Russia has recently built fortifications. Check out a map of Russia’s fortifications here: https://t.co/hd0vVpI2NN (1/6) pic.twitter.com/X88fDLrryg

— Brady Africk (@bradyafr) February 14, 2023