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Berlin risks reputation to block sellout to China
Germany’s government, increasingly worried about China’s influence in key industries, has blocked a takeover of engineering firm Leifeld days after it thwarted another Chinese bid. The move could be damaging, say experts.

Just a few weeks ago, Chancellor Angela Merkel and Chinese Prime Minister Li Keqiang gave a show of harmony at a meeting in Berlin. Both were keen to stress the importance of free trade and open markets in the face of mounting US protectionism.
There was little evidence of that spirit on Wednesday. Meeting in Berlin, Ms. Merkel’s cabinet decided to block the planned takeover of German engineering firm Leifeld Metal Spinning by French group Manoir Industries, a unit of China’s Yantai Taihai Group. The move came just days after ministers thwarted the purchase of a 20 percent stake in German power network operator 50Hertz by a Chinese investor.
Sources close to the economics ministry cited “security reasons” for the Leifeld veto, which Yantai Taihai had pre-empted by abandoning the takeover plan.

The government’s decision was historic because it was the first time it has blocked a takeover under a 2004 law. This enables it to forbid the purchase of more than 25 percent of a company by foreign investors if the deal is seen as threatening the public order or Germany’s security interests.


“It was just a matter of time before such a situation arose,” said Wei Duan, the director of the Chinese chamber of commerce in Germany. He believes the German government is taking the wrong path and that while Chinese companies remain willing to invest in Germany, the country’s reputation would suffer.

The right-wing AfD launches its new party foundation, the Erasmus Stiftung, with a quote from Arendt. It will have a €70 million annual budget from the federal government for the next legislative period. https://t.co/baykkrox49

— Quinn Slobodian (@zeithistoriker) August 12, 2018

Aufgrund der ausgelösten Diskussionen sehe ich im Nachhinein, dass ich Frau Chebli herabgewürdigt habe. Das war ein Moment der Schwäche, absolut falsch von mir und dafür entschuldige mich bei ihr aufrichtig und bei allen, die sich dadurch verletzt fühlen.

— Efgani Dönmez (@efganidoenmez) September 2, 2018

Weakened Merkel sees ally lose party vote


A key ally of Chancellor Angela Merkel on Tuesday lost his post as the centre-right party's parliamentary chief in a vote that underlined strong headwinds faced by Germany's veteran leader.

Volker Kauder, who has headed the parliamentary group of Merkel's CDU and Bavarian allies CSU for 13 years, lost in a re-election battle to challenger Ralph Brinkhaus, a relative unknown.

The shock 112-125 result came a day after Merkel was forced to admit mistakes in her handling of a row surrounding Germany's outgoing domestic spy chief.

Observers and opponents called the vote a slap in the face for the chancellor, who had campaigned hard for Kauder's re-election.

"This is a revolt against Merkel," wrote the centre-left SPD's parliamentary group leader Thomas Oppermann on Twitter minutes after the result was published.

Deputy leader of the SPD, Ralf Stegner noted that the result "shows how deep the erosion of power within the (CDU-CSU) is".

Earlier Tuesday, Spiegel Online had said that a win by Brinkhaus would mean that "Merkel should really clean out her office in the chancellery immediately -- his election would be nothing short of a vote of distrust against the leader of the government."

In a brief statement, Merkel thanked Kauder and congratulated Brinkhaus, adding that "this is an hour of democracy, in which there are also defeats and there's nothing to gloss over."

Brinkhaus himself said opposing Merkel was not his intention of joining the race.

But he felt the parliamentary group needed a change at the top after 13 years.

"It's not about shifting the group in a specific direction, but about an internal positioning of the group and how we can get new momentum," Brinkhaus said ahead of the vote results.

Far-right party AfD gleefully welcomed Kauder's toppling.

"It's over for Merkel: Kauder voted out! Volker Kauder's loss in the election as parliamentary group leader now clearly shows Merkel's loss in power. The twilight of Merkel has finally set in," wrote AfD leader Alice Weidel on Twitter.

After nearly 13 years in power, Merkel has seen support for her centre-right party chipped away by the far right, which has mobilised backing with its anti-immigration stance.

Merkel fateful decision in 2015 to not close the border to hundreds of thousands of asylum seekers at the height of Europe's migrant crisis has proved one of the most divisive policies in her four terms as leader.

Germany, YouGov poll:

CDU/CSU-EPP: 27% (-1)
AfD-EFDD: 18% (+1)
SPD-S&D: 17%
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 14% (+1)
LINKE-LEFT: 11%
FDP-ALDE: 9%

Field work: 21/09/18 – 25/09/18
Sample size: 1,504 pic.twitter.com/Rx7veuL4NH

— Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) September 27, 2018

Germany: YouGov poll shows eurosceptic AfD (EFDD) as strongest party among men. #Germany #AfD #Merkel

— Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) September 27, 2018

Germany, Forsa poll:

CDU/CSU-EPP: 28%
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 17% (+1)
SPD-S&D: 16% (-1)
AfD-EFDD: 15%
LINKE-LEFT: 10%
FDP-ALDE: 9%

Field work: 24-28/09/18
Sample size: 2,501#Erdogan #SPD #btw21 #LtwBayern pic.twitter.com/5ytGwvUDdc

— Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) September 29, 2018

Germany, INSA poll:

CDU/CSU-EPP: 26% (-1)
AfD-EFDD: 18.5% (+0.5)
SPD-S&D: 16%
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 14.5%
LINKE-LEFT: 11.5%
FDP-ALDE: 10%

Field work: 28/09/18 – 1/10/18
Sample size: 2,041 pic.twitter.com/0y3vEcX1V3

— Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) 01. октобар 2018.

The repercussions of Sunday’s vote, if they deliver the upset that is expected, could thus reverberate deep into Germany’s government. Even more so since it is not only the CSU that is in for a shock – the other half of Germany’s coalition government, the Social Democratic Party (SPD), is also set for a painful defeat. According to the latest polls, the CSU is expected to see its share of the vote drop from 47.7% in 2013 to just about 33-35%. For the SPD, polls suggest a painful slide from 20.6% to around 10-12%. This comes as the far-right AfD is set to enter the Bavarian Parliament for the first time this weekend – polls expect the party to jump from zero to 11-13% in this election – while the left-liberal Greens are predicted to double their vote, from 8.6% to 16-18%.

...

The arch-conservative CSU are expected to receive the most damning defeat. The very party that has governed the state without interruption since 1957 – for most of this time without any coalition partner, an absolute anomaly in Germany’s political system – is predicted by polls to see its vote share slump by more than ten percentage points. If this came true, it would be the party’s worst showing in more than half a century! (Since 1950, to be precise). It would be a loss even bigger than the combined decline of the CDU and the CSU in last year’s national elections, where they saw their vote share fall by ‘only’ 8.6%. Even if such a fall in support doesn’t materialise, they are still likely to take a drumming.

Now where are all those former CSU votes going to? The common wisdom says to the far-right Alternative fuer Deutschland (AfD), and this surely holds some truth. Much of the AfD’s surge in Bavaria will indeed be made up of disgruntled CSU voters, predominantly over the migration issue. But, and this is crucial, most of them will already have switched (in their mind, that is) quite some time ago, certainly at last year’s general election. Already back then, the AfD polled at 10-13% in Bavaria – while the CSU still was at 40%. So if the CSU’s losses in the polls since then have not boosted the AfD, who else has benefitted from them? The likely answer is: the Green Party (and, to a lesser degree, the Free Voters, a moderate localist party).

...

The outcome of the Bavarian elections is set to further aggravate the already tense relationship between the three parties in Germany’s governing ‘Grand Coalition’ – the CDU, CSU and SPD. The coalition has seen numerous rows since its inception in March this year, and has seen all three parties drop further in the polls. Calls from the party bases for radical change – either of leadership, or by terminating the coalition – are set to grow. Even more so if the state elections in Hesse, on 28 October, end in defeat as well. But whether these calls will become loud enough for either of the two scenarios to actually happen can, so far, still be doubted.

In a more immediate (and likely) consequence however, Merkel’s cabinet may experience a minor reshuffle. The CSU has started the search for its electoral-defeat-scapegoat early on this time around, with most politicians happy to point their fingers at party leader and German Interior Minister Horst Seehofer. If he gets the boot, he would be replaced by another CSU politician.


https://openeurope.org.uk/today/blog/sobering-results-in-the-land-of-oktoberfest-a-primer-on-the-2018-bavarian-elections/