Brexit

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Re: Brexit

Post by Ointagru Unartan on Sat Jun 18, 2016 2:21 pm

Benny Lava wrote:Imam, ipak, problem sa ovim istraživanjem jer ne vidim da li online ili telefonsko, razlike su tu ogromne, online ankete imaju jak bias ka Leave opciji.

http://www.qriously.com/blog/jo-cox-murder-influence-outcome-eu-referendum/

Pogledaj sekciju "our method", izgleda da je neka vrsta ankete preko smartfona.


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Re: Brexit

Post by Blind Lime Pie on Sat Jun 18, 2016 2:23 pm

Mr.Pink wrote:takodjer mi je zanimljivo što  uvek priča nekako krene u pravcu mentalnog zdravlja kad god se radi o belcu. vidi slučaj brejvik. 

nema tu nikakve ideološke osnove i baze, to su prosto ludaci. teroristi su samo u slučaju kada su napadači tamnoputi.


da, ali ovde jeste u pitanju čovek sa potvrđenom istorijom mentalne bolesti. sasvim si u pravu za Brejvika ali su relativizatori ovde makar faktografski u pravu.


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Re: Brexit

Post by diktotar on Sat Jun 18, 2016 2:28 pm

Kazu da je ovo suspect



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Re: Brexit

Post by Gargantua on Sat Jun 18, 2016 4:49 pm

Mike Smithson@MSmithsonPB
Ahead of tonight’s #EURef polls the latest table. Only members of the British Polling Council now included.

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Re: Brexit

Post by Blind Lime Pie on Sun Jun 19, 2016 1:28 am

YouGov pokazuje veliki preokret u korist Remain.


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Re: Brexit

Post by fernoux-h on Sun Jun 19, 2016 2:37 am

Mr.Pink wrote:takodjer mi je zanimljivo što  uvek priča nekako krene u pravcu mentalnog zdravlja kad god se radi o belcu. vidi slučaj brejvik. 

nema tu nikakve ideološke osnove i baze, to su prosto ludaci. teroristi su samo u slučaju kada su napadači tamnoputi.

Ok, naučio si da mantraš, super, identifikovao si se. Ali belci koji počinjavaju ovakva ubistva uglavnom i jesu ljudi koji imaju neke probleme sa mentalnim zdravljem i ugl. tu ideologija nije nešto bitna. Naravno da se takva ubistva ne dešavaju u ideološkom vakuumu i da postoji razlog zašto će svaki beli luzer izabrati neku fringe-desničarsku ideologiju kao motiv. Ali kakve to ima veze (mogli su da budu i anarhopankeri) - ni Brejvik ni ovaj tip nisu produkt neke zastupljene ideologije, već margine, ludaci koji su se nekako dokopali oružja. Onaj tip što je ubijao u Orlandu npr. (nije beli desničar, ali isto je) ne zna ni da li je za IS ili Hezbolah - bio je oba :lol: Takvih ludaka će uvek biti, u svakoj zemlji, ma koliko marginalna bila ideologija na koju se pozivaju. Teroristi su sa druge strane ljudi koji imaju neku zajednicu i osećaju pripadnost njoj, nisu marginalci, saživeli su se sa svojom ideologijom. Naravno da će ljudi tamnoputog atentatora na prvu loptu povezati sa islamskim fundamentalizmom, a belca sa profilom lone wolf ludaka kada je u većini slučajeva tako.


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Re: Brexit

Post by Blind Lime Pie on Sun Jun 19, 2016 2:45 am

jednom ćeš naučiti kako da razgovaraš bez nepotrebnog otudjivanja sagovornika. you are getting there


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Re: Brexit

Post by ostap bender on Sun Jun 19, 2016 2:46 am



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Re: Brexit

Post by fernoux-h on Sun Jun 19, 2016 3:02 am

Ma niko nije izjednačio mentalno bolesne sa ludacima, i to što neko neće da ignoriše činjenicu da su svi bili neki bolesnici ne znači da misli da su svi mentalno bolesni ubice i zločinci.

Prosto, ovi ljudi najčešće imaju neki mentalni poremećaj ili hendikep i trpe stigmu zbog toga. Milion ljudi to ima, ali ljudi koji imaju luzerski pristup životu (što je vidljivo kod svih middle class belih ubica) ne znaju da se nose sa tim i postaju antisocijalni. Ne pozivaju se na anarhizam ili antifu zato što su to baš toliko marginalne ideologije da teško možeš doći u kontakt sa njima čak i preko interneta - za nacizam i sl. ipak svaki mladi čovek zna. Ali to su u principu slični miljei. Ako odeš u neki skvot u Nemačkoj, možeš da naiđeš na ljude koji imaju poprilično slično razmišljanje - ne mogu sada da se setim adrese sajta, ali jedan od glavnih skvotera s početka 2000ih u Bg ima neki sajt na kome redovno piše kako sve žene rade za vlast, policiju i imperijalističke države (živi u nekoj zapadnoj zemlji), kako će ih klati itd. On sebe smatra anarhistom, ali to uopšte nije bitno, može da bude i pristalica Narodnog fronta Judeje. To jeste tipičan profil nekoga ko će počiniti ovakvo ubistvo, i takve pojave nemaju preterano veze sa trenutnom političkom situacijom, "rastom desnice" ili sl.


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Re: Brexit

Post by Gargantua on Sun Jun 19, 2016 7:45 am


https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/06/17/eu-referendum-remain-lead-one/




EU referendum: Remain lead at one




Polls for Good Morning Britain (from the middle of the week) and the Sunday Times (from the end of the week) show swings towards Remain

We are now in the final week of the referendum campaign and the swing back towards the status quo appears to be in full force. We have published two polls this morning, one conducted for ITV's Good Morning Britain between Wednesday and Thursday, and one conducted for the Sunday Times on Thursday and Friday.


After the clear leads for Leave that polls were showing a week ago, both of our polls published today show the race coming back to neck-and-neck again: a two point Leave lead in the Good Morning Britain poll, a one point Remain lead in the Sunday Times poll.
 
While there will be speculation about whether this movement is connected to the tragic death of Jo Cox, we do not think that it is. The fieldwork for our Good Morning Britain poll was entirely conducted before she was attacked and a third of the responses to our Sunday Times poll were also done before news of her death was reported.


The underlying figures suggest the movement may be more to do with people worrying about the economic impact of leaving the European Union. In the Sunday Times poll 33% of people said they thought that they would be personally worse off if Britain left the EU, up from 23% a fortnight ago and easily the highest we have recorded on this question.


The pattern of public opinion on the EU referendum is looking very similar to the Scottish referendum in 2014. Back then there was a long period of little movement when most ordinary voters were paying little attention, this was followed by a period of movement in favour of Yes, as people were excited by the prospect of change, followed by a sharp correction back to the status quo as, in the final days, people worried about the risks associated with it.


Public opinion on the EU looks as if it may be moving in exactly the same way, with that same late shift to Remain as people attracted to the idea of leaving the European Union worry about the risk to their economic wellbeing.
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Re: Brexit

Post by Kondo on Sun Jun 19, 2016 9:38 am

sta si navalio sa tim narodnim frontom judeje?


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Re: Brexit

Post by Kinder Lad on Sun Jun 19, 2016 11:49 am

Gargantua wrote:

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/06/17/eu-referendum-remain-lead-one/






EU referendum: Remain lead at one






Polls for Good Morning Britain (from the middle of the week) and the Sunday Times (from the end of the week) show swings towards Remain



We are now in the final week of the referendum campaign and the swing back towards the status quo appears to be in full force. We have published two polls this morning, one conducted for ITV's Good Morning Britain between Wednesday and Thursday, and one conducted for the Sunday Times on Thursday and Friday.


After the clear leads for Leave that polls were showing a week ago, both of our polls published today show the race coming back to neck-and-neck again: a two point Leave lead in the Good Morning Britain poll, a one point Remain lead in the Sunday Times poll.
 
While there will be speculation about whether this movement is connected to the tragic death of Jo Cox, we do not think that it is. The fieldwork for our Good Morning Britain poll was entirely conducted before she was attacked and a third of the responses to our Sunday Times poll were also done before news of her death was reported.


The underlying figures suggest the movement may be more to do with people worrying about the economic impact of leaving the European Union. In the Sunday Times poll 33% of people said they thought that they would be personally worse off if Britain left the EU, up from 23% a fortnight ago and easily the highest we have recorded on this question.


The pattern of public opinion on the EU referendum is looking very similar to the Scottish referendum in 2014. Back then there was a long period of little movement when most ordinary voters were paying little attention, this was followed by a period of movement in favour of Yes, as people were excited by the prospect of change, followed by a sharp correction back to the status quo as, in the final days, people worried about the risks associated with it.


Public opinion on the EU looks as if it may be moving in exactly the same way, with that same late shift to Remain as people attracted to the idea of leaving the European Union worry about the risk to their economic wellbeing.

Ništa bez Gojkovice...
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Re: Brexit

Post by Mr.Pink on Sun Jun 19, 2016 2:54 pm

naravno da je bitna ideologija, jer takvim ludacima daje jasan okvir i polje delovanja. 

pa brejvik je napisao čitav manifest. do detalja je isplanirao ozbiljnu akciju koja je kulminirala odlaskom u levičarski kamp i rešetanjem norveškog podmlatka. 

kako se avganistanac izjašnjavao i da li je imao ličnih kontakata sa isisom je nebitno. očigledno je da je sa njima delio mržnju prema gejevima i da je bio podstaknut isisovim delanjem.


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Re: Brexit

Post by fernoux-h on Sun Jun 19, 2016 8:13 pm

Naravno da nije bio podstaknut ISISovim delovanjem, već činovima domaćeg terorizma koje su počinili ljudi mnogo sličniji njemu (pucanje po školama itd.) a ISIS je izabrao samo zato što su to kao neki muslimani, ne zna ni on sam kakvi muslimani, a on je avganistanskog porekla. Ideologija koju proklamuju tu više služi za ukras, da bi cela stvar delovala teatralnije, jer takvi ljudi vole da budu teatralni. Ako nešto to pokazuje to je ovaj masakr u Orlandu.


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Re: Brexit

Post by No Country on Sun Jun 19, 2016 9:01 pm

Обојица сте у праву, постоји та повратна веза између одређених психолошких профила и радикалних идеологија. За ову причицу из мог непосредног комшилука вероватно никада нисте чули, али се у њој јако занимљиво преплићу приче о хероинској зависности, инфантилним маштаријама, "тероризму" и тероризму, и - а што је овде најзанимљивије - покушајем too eager припадника служби да се истакну, до тачке у којој заправо гурају два сјебана млада бића у тероризам. Играло се Ал Каеде, двоје младих, а богме и држава Канада, мада им није било претерано нужно... Прочитајте, ако вас не мрзи. Баш би ме занимало да чујем ваш став: јесу ли њих двоје терористи или не?
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Re: Brexit

Post by паће on Sun Jun 19, 2016 10:25 pm

Не знам шта се догађа у главама (бивших) овисника, тако да већ ту не могу да просудим колико су уопште били код куће кад су се упуштали у целу игранку. Но, ако су они терористи, онда треба судити и том њиховом васпитачу као организатору, нема везе што је пајкан.


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Re: Brexit

Post by No Country on Sun Jun 19, 2016 11:19 pm

Тако је. Но постоји и тај магнетизам тероризма, ваљда као некакве инстант-пречице до celebrity статуса, којем је овај већ увелико начети лик подлегао. ISIS је касније кренуо да увелико игра на тај тарантиновско-sexy image.
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Re: Brexit

Post by Mr.Pink on Mon Jun 20, 2016 6:50 pm

pravo pitanje je da li je taj slučaj u kanadi slučaj državnog terorizma.


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Re: Brexit

Post by No Country on Mon Jun 20, 2016 7:21 pm

Више је у питању државни провинцијализам. Ево, вид`ли ми да се Американци боре против терориста...
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Re: Brexit

Post by Mr.Pink on Mon Jun 20, 2016 7:34 pm

to bi bilo kad bi u nunavutu otvorili kamp po ugledu na gvantanamo.


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Re: Brexit

Post by Blind Lime Pie on Tue Jun 21, 2016 12:33 pm

YouGov ponovo pokazuje 2% prednosti za Brexit.
Izgleda da će biti neizvesno do kraja.
Danas uplaćujem 2.000 na Brexit. U Meridijanu je kvota 3.6.


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Re: Brexit

Post by Ointagru Unartan on Tue Jun 21, 2016 1:50 pm

Sto se tice uticaja ubistva Jo Cox na stav prema Brexit-u, anketa koju je radio ComRes za Sundey Mirror je indikativna. Anketa je sprovedena 16. juna, dakle na sam dan ubistva: procenat ispitanika koji su za Brexit pao je sa 45% na 38% posle dva sata poslepodne, kada je javljeno da je Cox ubijena.


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Re: Brexit

Post by Gargantua on Tue Jun 21, 2016 2:08 pm

YouGov tvrdi da ubistvo u suštini nije uticalo na trend, radili su anketu od petka do nedelje, dakle posle ubistva. Kod njih i dalje Brexit vodi, za 2pp.
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Re: Brexit

Post by паће on Tue Jun 21, 2016 2:20 pm

Шта му је оно друго п?


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Re: Brexit

Post by Gargantua on Tue Jun 21, 2016 2:26 pm

procentna poena, 44:42

Re: Brexit

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