Brexit

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Re: Brexit

Post by Kondo on Tue Jun 21, 2016 9:37 pm

ozbiljno pitam, sto bi nas boleo patkoslav(tm) zbog remain ili leave?


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Re: Brexit

Post by Gargantua on Tue Jun 21, 2016 9:41 pm

Benny Lava wrote:Inače, dešava se nešto nesvakidašnje pred referendume: radikalna opcija (Leave) jača u minut do dvanaest.

YouGov je lepo primetio da efekat straha, koji je bio vidljiv kod škotskog referenduma, ovde igra malu ulogu.
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Re: Brexit

Post by Guest on Tue Jun 21, 2016 9:42 pm

Uticaće na posao.
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Re: Brexit

Post by Blind Lime Pie on Tue Jun 21, 2016 9:42 pm

@kondo

a kao nije ti zanimljivo?

 e reci mi gde da kupim jezik


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Re: Brexit

Post by Kondo on Tue Jun 21, 2016 9:44 pm

Lev Abalkin wrote:Uticaće na posao.

zemljama neclanicama EU sa bilo kakvom minimalnom perspektivom za plasman casha, leave moze da bude koristan. ne kazem da ce se srbija okoristiti ali to je cinjenica.


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Re: Brexit

Post by Gargantua on Tue Jun 21, 2016 9:47 pm

Inače večeras su BoJo i Sadiq Khan u debati uživo na BBC, i to može uticati na glasače u zadnji čas.

Edit:

Izgleda da su glasine tačne i da je i HMTQ za Brexit. Činjenica da to sad kače na naslovne strane (Telegraph, Daily Fail) nije mala stvar:


The Queen has been canvassing opinion on the EU debate by asking dinner companions: "Give me three good reasons why Britain should be part of Europe."
Her Majesty's biographer, Robert Lacey, reported the Queen's comments and suggested they may mean the Queen favours withdrawal from the European Union.
Buckingham Palace would neither confirm nor deny that the Queen had been debating the merits of Brexit in private, but royal sources pointed out that the words attributed to the Queen were "a question not a statement".
However the leading nature of the alleged question adds weight to previous claims that the Queen would like Britain to pull out of the EU.
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Re: Brexit

Post by Blind Lime Pie on Tue Jun 21, 2016 9:51 pm

To je preaching to the quire. Glasač za Leave je beli pripadnik engleske srednje i niže klase stariji od 50 godina. U toj ekipi ima 90% + već rešenih za koju će opciju glasati. Ne kažem da nije bitno ali to nije nekakva podrška koja može da presudi.


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Re: Brexit

Post by Filipenko on Tue Jun 21, 2016 9:54 pm

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Re: Brexit

Post by Guest on Tue Jun 21, 2016 9:56 pm

da l da se kladim sad me je jako mami...
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Re: Brexit

Post by William Murderface on Tue Jun 21, 2016 10:05 pm

Filipenko wrote:

Budala i bigot.


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Re: Brexit

Post by Ointagru Unartan on Tue Jun 21, 2016 10:06 pm

Pretece me.


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Re: Brexit

Post by Gargantua on Tue Jun 21, 2016 10:25 pm

Od našeg prošlonedeljnog gosta:




Coffee House
Take it from a divorcee: Brexit will cost you dear
Niall Ferguson

Niall Ferguson
21 June 2016
2:50 PM



I suppose there are such things as amicable divorces. Mine wasn’t. Like the First World War, it was fought for more than four years, and ended with the Treaty of Versailles (by which I mean that it imposed territorial losses and the payment of annual reparations for a very long time).

Which brings me to Brexit, the ultimate divorce. Leave aside the arguments based on economics. Leave aside history, too. Instead, permit me to get personal. You want to get a divorce from Europe? Very well, let me explain what divorce is like.

Now, I get how you feel. You’ve reached the point when you just can’t stand the EU any more. You can’t stand the nagging (regulation). You can’t stand the way the EU keeps inviting her friends round (immigration). You can’t stand the way she takes your money (that net contribution). So enough is enough. You want out.

At this stage, most people contemplating divorce are motivated by two things. First, they see only their spouse’s defects. Secondly, they fantasize about an idealized alternative future. Often, though not always, this involves a magically perfect new partner. But the most important motivation is the dream of freedom. No more nagging! No more unwelcome guests! All that money saved!

This is the Brexit state of mind. To the committed Leave voter, the European Union has no virtues, only vices. For some Brexiteers there is also an adorable, in-every-way-perfect girlfriend called ‘the Anglosphere,’ a combination of all that is cute about Australia, Canada and New Zealand.

But, let’s face it, most Brexiteers are a bit long in the tooth for a new partner, even if such a new partner existed. For them it is enough to contemplate freedom. Independence. Good old English liberty. Shut your eyes and ask yourself what image those words conjure up. Could it possibly be that yacht you’ve always dreamt of? Is that how you picture yourself, blithely sailing off into the sunset?

Fine. I get it. But please – before you call the lawyer – do not let anyone kid you that this is going to be easy. Or cheap. Or quick. Or amicable. Claims that Brexit will be all of these things are made on a daily basis. Let me disabuse you.
In phase two, after you have told your spouse you want out, the standard response is: ‘Please don’t, darling … but if you do, you bastard, I’ll make sure you regret it for the rest of your life.’

This is essentially the position of the German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble. Herr Schäuble is not one for displays of emotion. Having been confined to a wheelchair since an assassination attempt in 1990, he seldom permits himself more than a wintry half-smile. Yet last week he provided Der Spiegel magazine with an unlikely cover story: an appeal to Britons not to vote Leave on Thursday. ‘Please don’t go!’ was the headline.

But a more accurate headline would have been ‘Please don’t go … or else.’ Schäuble’s warning was a stark one: Britain does not have the option to vote for Brexit and at the same time to remain inside the single market – the so-called Norwegian option. ‘In is in, and out is out,’ Schäuble told Der Spiegel.

In view of the Leave campaign’s repeated claims that Brexit would allow the UK to ‘take control’ of immigration and regulation, Schäuble’s position is logical. Continued membership of the European Economic Area would require Britain, like Norway, still to accept the free movement of EU citizens, as well to pay into the EU budget and to apply nearly all EU regulations. But these are precisely the things that the Leave campaign wants to get rid of.

Unlike a scorned soon-to-be-ex-wife, Schäuble’s motive is not to make Britain suffer for the sake of revenge. His main motive is not even to help David Cameron avert Brexit. Schäuble wants to deter others – he specifically mentioned the Dutch – from contemplating a similar referendum (anyone for Duxit?). And with good reason. A Pew poll published a couple of weeks ago revealed that Britons do not in fact have the most negative view of Brussels. Whereas the EU gets a ‘favourable’ rating from 44 per cent of British voters, for France the share is 38 per cent. For Greece the figure is 27 per cent. And before you confidently assure me that Schäuble is bluffing, remember that the last people who thought that before a referendum were… the Greeks.

So you are voting for a divorce, my pro-Brexit friends. And, like most divorces, it’s going to take much longer than you think and cost much more. That nice yacht you were daydreaming about? Sorry, your money is going on alimony and lawyers’ bills, just as the money Boris Johnson and Michael Gove have promised to spend on the NHS and cuts in VAT will be swallowed up by the post-Brexit recession and negotiation nightmare.

Yet this is not just about time and money. For divorce has other unintended consequences. Yes, you’re fixated on all that is wrong with your spouse. But other people are inevitably involved in any divorce: children mainly, but also parents, siblings and friends. It’s the same with this referendum. If England votes Leave but Scotland votes Remain, you surely know happens next – to say nothing of Northern Ireland and Wales. I have friends whose kids didn’t speak to them for years after their divorce. A decree nisi can turn your family into Yugoslavia. How amicable would the breakup of Britain be?

‘The reason divorce is so expensive,’ a twice-married American once said to me, ‘is because it’s really worth it.’ Well, maybe. Maybe England really will be happier without the EU, not forgetting the UK. But how many divorcees have a clue at the outset what divorce will cost them in time, money and heartache?

The lesson I have learned in the nearly eight years since I and my first wife separated is that divorce is one of the toughest things you can do in peacetime. And the one thing you can never divorce are the problems that turn out to be all your own – the inner demons that you wrongly blamed on your ex.

Today there are a great many Brexiteers who would love to pin all the UK’s problems on the EU. Trust me: most of those problems will still be there after Brexit, along with a heap of nasty new ones. And you’ll have no one left to blame but yourself.


Niall Ferguson is Laurence A. Tisch Professor of History at Harvard University, a Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford, and a columnist for the Sunday Times.
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Re: Brexit

Post by Ointagru Unartan on Tue Jun 21, 2016 10:30 pm

Gargantua, prenosis zanimljive tekstove, a bih voleo da cujem i tvoje misljenje u vezi Brexit-a.


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Re: Brexit

Post by William Murderface on Tue Jun 21, 2016 10:40 pm

Menr zanima jel to lepa somalijka opet slobodna ili se Ferguson vec ranije razvodio?


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Re: Brexit

Post by Kondo on Tue Jun 21, 2016 10:45 pm

Benny Lava wrote:@kondo

a kao nije ti zanimljivo?

 e reci mi gde da kupim jezik

definitivno mi nesto ovde jede postove. napisao sam odgovor pre sat vremena i sad ga nema.

zanimljivo mi je kao kuriozitet ali sam vec opasno zasicen politikom. leave/remain me zanima ukoliko pogadja moje najblize prijatelje koji imaju veze sa UK. nisam siguran da ce bilo ko biti posebno pogodjen licno. ovi koji zive van britanije su vec glasali, svi za remain.

jedini razlog zbog koga bi mi leave bio zanimljiviji je taj sto me bas zanima sta brisel moze stvarno da uradi britancima da spreci domino efekat daljih exita. ja zapravo o EU mislim dosta toga sto misli prosecan leave glasac i ne zelim da srbija bude deo ove zajednice.


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Re: Brexit

Post by Gargantua on Tue Jun 21, 2016 10:47 pm

Ja gledam Brexit kao na evenualni okidač za druge stvari, ako izađu.

Očekivao bih da Kameron odleti, mislim da su velike šanse da Škoti pokrenu pitanje drugog referenduma, a ne znam šta će laburisti raditi.

Više me zanima kako će se Brisel ponašati nego London posle toga. Mislim da ne znaju baš mnogo šta će da rade, mislim da raste želja da se bude oštar i brz (procedura može da traje do 2 godine) jer verujem da je Unija umorna od Britanije i da će se to videti čak i da ostanu. Nema razloga da neke druge zemlje ne pokrenu "devoluciju" po nekim temama kad vide da se to dopušta Britaniji koja ostaje u Uniji.

Za nas - u ekonomskom smislu mislim da nema nekog uticaja, UK je mali trgovinski i investicioni partner. U političkom smislu može se desiti da Brisel prekonfiguriše svoju politiku proširenja i da požuri sa ostatkom Balkana kako bi pokazao da još uvek ima integrativni potencijal kod onih zemalja koje su voljne da uđu. No, to bi morala biti politička odluka na najvišem nivou, neke naznake postoje da se cela pauza priključivanja mora preskočiti kao politika i da Unija mora biti aktivnija. UK je generalno podržavala širenje Unije, jer je nije mnogo interesovala dubina integracije koliko širina, ali se ne sećam da je ona bila ključni činilac u našem slučaju pa tako ni njen izlazak ne znači mnogo.

Što se tiče širih pitanja - Britanija kao kontrateg nekakvoj nemačkoj dominaciji - to je možda bio slučaj ali ako je šta odlikovalo britansku EU politiku to je bilo kontriranje većini, mislim da je daleko najviše puta Britanija glasala protiv nekih odluka, što sama što u sklopu manjinskog bloka. Ona je uglavnom nezainteresovana za evropske politike, fiskalne teme je ne dotiču mnogo, spoljna politika Unije je se ne tiče mnogo jer igra bilateralno, kroz NATO ili SBUN, te i da ostane unutra (a ostaće sa samo tanušnom većinom) njena aktivnost će se verovatno još smanjiti.


Što se tiče rezultata očekujem tesan prolaz REMAIN-a, tipa 51-2%.
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Re: Brexit

Post by Kondo on Tue Jun 21, 2016 10:47 pm

a za jezik beni idi na bajloni, u spoljnom nizu u dzordza vasingtona ima jedna povelika mesara sa odlicnim izborom sekundarne robe - iznutrica, glava, papaka i slicnog. reper ti je skocic pa 1-2 lokala levo desno, mislim ipak levo. alternativno da zoves lence na kalenicu i da ih pitas kada dolazi pa da ti ostave, hoce to da urade.


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Re: Brexit

Post by Gargantua on Tue Jun 21, 2016 10:49 pm

William Murderface wrote:Menr zanima jel to lepa somalijka opet slobodna ili se Ferguson vec ranije razvodio?

Imao je on 1. ženu pre AHA.
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Re: Brexit

Post by Gargantua on Tue Jun 21, 2016 10:52 pm

Kondo wrote:

jedini razlog zbog koga bi mi leave bio zanimljiviji je taj sto me bas zanima sta brisel moze stvarno da uradi britancima da spreci domino efekat daljih exita. ja zapravo o EU mislim dosta toga sto misli prosecan leave glasac i ne zelim da srbija bude deo ove zajednice.

M. Devenport će morati da napusti mesto ambasadora EU u nekom relativno skorom trenutku, što će neizmerno obradovati vođu.
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Re: Brexit

Post by Kondo on Tue Jun 21, 2016 10:58 pm

Gargantua wrote:
Kondo wrote:

jedini razlog zbog koga bi mi leave bio zanimljiviji je taj sto me bas zanima sta brisel moze stvarno da uradi britancima da spreci domino efekat daljih exita. ja zapravo o EU mislim dosta toga sto misli prosecan leave glasac i ne zelim da srbija bude deo ove zajednice.

M. Devenport će morati da napusti mesto ambasadora EU u nekom relativno skorom trenutku, što će neizmerno obradovati vođu.

ovo je vrlo zanimljivo ali sa druge strane mislim da dejvenport ne solira tj da vodja nece imati razloga za radost.


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Re: Brexit

Post by ostap bender on Tue Jun 21, 2016 11:01 pm

moguce je da bi brexit bio dobar za laburiste ako torijevci implodiraju.


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Re: Brexit

Post by Blind Lime Pie on Tue Jun 21, 2016 11:18 pm

Kondo wrote:a za jezik beni idi na bajloni, u spoljnom nizu u dzordza vasingtona ima jedna povelika mesara sa odlicnim izborom sekundarne robe - iznutrica, glava, papaka i slicnog. reper ti je skocic pa 1-2 lokala levo desno, mislim ipak levo. alternativno da zoves lence na kalenicu i da ih pitas kada dolazi pa da ti ostave, hoce to da urade.

Hvala! Samo mi to ostaje da regulisem za pracenje Brexita u cetvrtak


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Re: Brexit

Post by Gargantua on Tue Jun 21, 2016 11:22 pm

Kondo wrote:
Gargantua wrote:

M. Devenport će morati da napusti mesto ambasadora EU u nekom relativno skorom trenutku, što će neizmerno obradovati vođu.

ovo je vrlo zanimljivo ali sa druge strane mislim da dejvenport ne solira tj da vodja nece imati razloga za radost.

Svakako, ali ima tu sitnih praktičnih stvari, npr MD govori srpski i čita štampu pa mu ne promiču signali i ne mora da čeka da mu kabinet spremi pres-kliping da se informiše, itd itd.
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Re: Brexit

Post by fernoux-h on Wed Jun 22, 2016 1:16 am

ostap bender wrote:moguce je da bi brexit bio dobar za laburiste ako torijevci implodiraju.

BrExit ne bi bio dobar ni za koga. A posebno ne za laburiste.


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Re: Brexit

Post by fernoux-h on Wed Jun 22, 2016 1:30 am

Kondo wrote:a za jezik beni idi na bajloni, u spoljnom nizu u dzordza vasingtona ima jedna povelika mesara sa odlicnim izborom sekundarne robe - iznutrica, glava, papaka i slicnog. reper ti je skocic pa 1-2 lokala levo desno, mislim ipak levo. alternativno da zoves lence na kalenicu i da ih pitas kada dolazi pa da ti ostave, hoce to da urade.

Tu sam ja ranije kupovao meso svaki dan


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Re: Brexit

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