Svet i sire

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Re: Svet i sire

Post by Gargantua on Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:59 am

Jea, u međuvremenu desetine miliona ljudi se navikavaju na novu stvarnost da im se pale sirene za vazdušnu opasnost jer im komšija šalje nuklearke iznad glave.

To nismo do sad imali.
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Re: Svet i sire

Post by Kinder Lad on Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:21 pm

S druge strane Kinezi se žale zbog instaliranja THAADova u JK. Pa braćo prijatelji uradite nešto sa svojim detetom debilom.


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Re: Svet i sire

Post by William Murderface on Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:35 pm

Gargantua wrote:Ima li pojašnjenja čime su građani Japana zaslužili da ima sevaju nuklearke nad glavom?

It is no longer needed.

"The four islands of the archipelago should be sunken into the sea by the nuclear bomb of Juche. Japan is no longer needed to exist near us," said the Korea Asia-Pacific Peace Committee, which is North Korea's official propaganda arm.


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Re: Svet i sire

Post by Kinder Lad on Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:41 pm

of Juche

Kimov sistem tj ideologija samo na srpskom ima istinsko značenje


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Re: Svet i sire

Post by William Murderface on Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:43 pm

 

Spoiler:
Sinhronicitet!


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Re: Svet i sire

Post by Xexoxical Endarchy on Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:44 pm

William Murderface wrote:
Gargantua wrote:Ima li pojašnjenja čime su građani Japana zaslužili da ima sevaju nuklearke nad glavom?

It is no longer needed.

"The four islands of the archipelago should be sunken into the sea by the nuclear bomb of Juche. Japan is no longer needed to exist near us," said the Korea Asia-Pacific Peace Committee, which is North Korea's official propaganda arm.
daj propagandna ruko™️, trudimo se da ozbiljno shvatimo ovu situaciju


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Re: Svet i sire

Post by Filipenko on Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:48 pm

William Murderface wrote:
Gargantua wrote:Ima li pojašnjenja čime su građani Japana zaslužili da ima sevaju nuklearke nad glavom?

It is no longer needed.

"The four islands of the archipelago should be sunken into the sea by the nuclear bomb of Juche. Japan is no longer needed to exist near us," said the Korea Asia-Pacific Peace Committee, which is North Korea's official propaganda arm.


Upravo tako. Nema problema sa samim građanima, već su ostrva višak i valjalo bi ih survati u okean. A građani neka se bore za sebe i svoja prava u najboljem duhu liberalizma 

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Re: Svet i sire

Post by MNE on Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:56 pm

Gargantua wrote:Ima li pojašnjenja čime su građani Japana zaslužili da ima sevaju nuklearke nad glavom?

preci tih građana Japana su po Koreji radili mnogo gore stvari od bacanja metalnih falusoida iznad iste
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Re: Svet i sire

Post by Kinder Lad on Fri Sep 15, 2017 1:18 pm

Radili su i po Južnoj Koreji pa ništa.

Meni se ova kriza ne svidja zato što nije "događaj" koji se razreši ovako ili onako, nego ima "build-up", razvija se tokom vremena i ima potencijal da se još dugo razvija i usložnjava.


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Re: Svet i sire

Post by Ointagru Unartan on Fri Sep 15, 2017 1:21 pm

Gargantua wrote:Mogli su preko Kine pa u međunarodne vode Južnokineskog mora.

Preko Japana je najkraci put ka Americi.


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Re: Svet i sire

Post by Ointagru Unartan on Fri Sep 15, 2017 1:30 pm

Kinder Lad wrote:
of Juche

Kimov sistem tj ideologija samo na srpskom ima istinsko značenje



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Re: Svet i sire

Post by Gargantua on Fri Sep 15, 2017 1:33 pm

Preko Rusije - Vladivostok, Sahalin, Kamčatka - do Aljaske pa zapadne obale SAD, to je najkraća transpacifička ruta za leteće objekte.
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Re: Svet i sire

Post by Ointagru Unartan on Fri Sep 15, 2017 1:35 pm

Gargantua wrote:Preko Rusije - Vladivostok, Sahalin, Kamčatka - do Aljaske pa zapadne obale SAD, to je najkraća transpacifička ruta za leteće objekte.

Da, upravo sam proverio, u pravu si.


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Re: Svet i sire

Post by Utvara on Fri Sep 15, 2017 1:56 pm

Kinder Lad wrote:Radili su i po Južnoj Koreji pa ništa.

Meni se ova kriza ne svidja zato što nije "događaj" koji se razreši ovako ili onako, nego ima "build-up", razvija se tokom vremena i ima potencijal da se još dugo razvija i usložnjava.

Ma gde ništa čoveče? Mrze ih i dan danas ko Bugare, milioni su izginuli.
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Re: Svet i sire

Post by William Murderface on Fri Sep 15, 2017 1:58 pm

ko Bugare



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Re: Svet i sire

Post by паће on Fri Sep 15, 2017 2:27 pm

Kinder Lad wrote:Radili su i po Južnoj Koreji pa ništa.

Meni se ova kriza ne svidja zato što nije "događaj" koji se razreši ovako ili onako, nego ima "build-up", razvija se tokom vremena i ima potencijal da se još dugo razvija i usložnjava.

...а и да огуглају за пар недеља, кад то више није вест него дође негде око извештаја о времену.


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Re: Svet i sire

Post by diktotar on Fri Sep 15, 2017 2:30 pm

Ointagru Unartan wrote:
Gargantua wrote:Mogli su preko Kine pa u međunarodne vode Južnokineskog mora.

Preko Japana je najkraci put ka Americi.

pa i ja sam skontao da zato testiraju te pravce.


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Re: Svet i sire

Post by Utvara on Fri Sep 15, 2017 3:07 pm

Razlozi nisu tehnički, nego politički, pobogu ljudi, opetkažemponavljam(TM).

Ako padne raketa negde u Kinu ili u Rusiju, to je prvorazredan diplomatski skandal i veliki problem za Severnu Koreju, dakle ne sme da se lansira preko teritorije saveznika.
Ako padne i ubije nekog Japanca, to je srećan slučaj okolnosti i za Jug i za Sever.

I naravno da smo imali ovo do sada, svi Severnokorejski testovi pre 2011 su išli ka Japanu, ali su padali kratko. Sada konačno mogu da dosegnu mrske ostrvske gusare.
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Re: Svet i sire

Post by Filipenko on Fri Sep 15, 2017 3:31 pm

Obaška što su Japanci Korejce tretirali kao najgore roblje, tj. nižu rasu, i to 25-30 godina duže nego ostale.

Lično, voleo bih da japanska ostrva pripadnu porodici Kim na par decenije, da vide šta je to reciprocitet, pa da vidim da li bi se onda razvijali i bili "moderni" nakon tog tretmana.
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Re: Svet i sire

Post by Blind Lime Pie on Fri Sep 15, 2017 3:39 pm

Kinder Lad wrote:S druge strane Kinezi se žale zbog instaliranja THAADova u JK. Pa braćo prijatelji uradite nešto sa svojim detetom debilom.
jbt ti kao Tramp. 

boli kurac Kineze da disciplinuju Pjongjang, kada im je jasno kako će se ovo završiti. 

sada je nemoguće potčiniti Pjongjang vojnim putem, na sankcije Severna Koreja reaguje tako što nastavlja da baca rakete i razvija hidrogensku bombu, a situacija u kojoj Kim svako malo šalje balističke rakete preko Japana nije održiva na duže staze.

dakle šta imamo: vojno gledano Kim je već pobedio jer je doveo svoje protivnike u situaciju da ne mogu da mu uzvrate. ljudi Kim sada postavlja uslove, a ne Peking ili Vašington. sa njim će morati da se pregovara. ono što je Kim izveo meni je jebeno neverovatno. uz sav prezir koji gajim prema tiranima i bez ikakvih iluzija o prirodi režima u Pjongjangu, ne mogu da se ne divim njegovom vojnopolitičkom manevru, pogotovo što je aktuelni Kim na početku "mandata" delovao kao krele koga će generali zatući posle šest nedelja na vlasti.  umesto toga, dobismo lika iz Game of Thrones.


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Re: Svet i sire

Post by Kinder Lad on Fri Sep 15, 2017 3:49 pm

Kako bih voleo da delim vas optimizam


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Re: Svet i sire

Post by Blind Lime Pie on Fri Sep 15, 2017 4:01 pm

Nije to baš optimizam. Bio bih optimista kada bih verovao da će Kim biti ubijen i da će ta  zemlja makar u nekoj maloj meri biti otvorena prema ostatku sveta. Jeziva mi je pomisao na nuklearnu silu koja silom drži 25 miliona ljudi izvan svih svetskih tokova, jer ja nisam čovek savremenih shvatanja i rado se držim demodirane ideje da svi ljudi na svetu imaju pravo da biraju zaposlenje, mesto življenja, da izlaze iz svoje zemlje i vraćaju se u nju i da slobodno i po svom nahođenju koriste globalnu komunikacionu infrastrukturu. A bojim se da će Severna Koreja jednostavno postati vrlo opak regionalni igrač koji će inokosno postavljati uslove u vezi sa mnogo čime u tom delu sveta.


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Re: Svet i sire

Post by Kinder Lad on Fri Sep 15, 2017 4:16 pm

Mislim da zemlja koja verovatno proizvodi manje od jebene Srbije, a od npr Mađarske ili Slovačke sigurno, ne može da postane regionalni ništa, osim stalni izazivač nestabilnosti, moneta za potkusurivanje i, eventualno, meta. Cela snaga S.Koreje leži u podršci koju, kolika god da je, dolazi iz Kine. I Amerikanci to naravno znaju. Kažem, mislim da se previše uzdate u poslovne veze i u tu neku "racionalnost" (i Kima i US i ostalih). Ne kažem, nisu to ludaci, čak ni Kim, ali kad postoji stalno žarište, stvari umeju da budu...ne baš sto posto predvidive.


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Re: Svet i sire

Post by Gargantua on Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:07 pm

Evo kaže Stavridis "dajte čvrstu pomorsku blokadu"




A Naval Blockade Is the Best Option to Cut Off North Korea
The new UN sanctions are too weak, but they could be a first step in ending illegal trade by sea.

By James Stavridis
September 13, 2017, 3:28 PM GMT+2


North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is fixated on obtaining a serious nuclear arsenal, and continues to thumb his nose at the U.S. and other world powers. The latest round of United Nations Security Council sanctions approved Monday are not going to change that. But one aspect of them -- new measures to interdict ships breaking trade embargoes against Pyongyang -- could be baby steps toward much stronger sanctions enforcement.

The new resolution gives the U.S. and other countries the power to inspect ships going in and out of North Korea’s ports but, unfortunately, does not authorize the use of force if the target ships don’t comply. Equally bad, the inspections would need the consent of the countries where the ships are registered. This is a far weaker regime than what was initially proposed by the Donald Trump administration, which would have empowered U.S. military vessels to “use all necessary measures” to force compliance. That the language was watered down to avoid a veto from Russia or China.

The fact is, the only way to keep the Kim regime from violating UN sanctions would be a stringent naval blockade. While a full-on blockade would require a Security Council resolution, it would be possible for the U.S. to immediately start putting in place the rudiments of a comprehensive inspection regime on the high seas, which could be easily adapted over time as more allies, partners and ultimately geopolitical competitors like China and Russia can be persuaded to sign on. Indeed, the Trump administration has already been thinking along these lines.

Such a blockade would serve three key purposes: definitively cutting off North Korea’s access to oil imports from the sea; stopping Korean exports, especially textiles and seafood (which are of significant hard currency value to the regime); and ensuring that high-tech machinery and raw materials that might support Kim’s nuclear-weapons and missile programs are not allowed into the Hermit Kingdom.

While China might continue to provide such supplies across the long Chinese-North Korean land border, a naval blockade would increase pressure on Beijing to comply with existing UN sanctions, as any illegal imports would be obvious proof of Chinese violations.

Setting up a naval blockade is a tactical challenge, even for the U.S. North Korea operates commercial and military ports on its east and west coasts of the peninsula, including Nampo on the Bay of Korea and Hungnam on the Sea of Japan. It also has ports in the far northeast of the country on the edge of Russia, which has been one of Kim’s apologists on the world stage. Shutting down the entire flow of goods into and out of North Korea would significantly tax the U.S. Pacific Fleet.

But it wouldn’t be impossible. The blockade would probably be commanded and controlled tactically out of Seoul, at the headquarters of the commander of U.S. Forces Korea, Army General Vincent Brooks. (An odd legacy of the Korean War is that Brooks is also the commander of UN forces on the peninsula.) At sea, the Navy would probably operationalize the blockade under the overall tactical control of the commander of the U.S. Seventh Fleet, which is based across the Sea of Japan in Yokosuka. The flagship of the fleet, the USS Blue Ridge, is optimized for complex combat operations and would be the seagoing base for the blockade. The fleet has a new commander, Admiral Phil Sawyer, who was brought after the collisions of two Navy destroyers, the McCain and Fitzgerald, with commercial ships this year.

Given the highly volatile North Korean regime, the U.S. would be prudent to have at least one aircraft carrier on station in the Sea of Japan, with its 80 airplanes capable of helping protect the blockade ships and participating in the surveillance over the vast ocean approaches to Korea. The real work of the blockade would be done by Navy destroyers and cruisers, mostly those based in Japan. (Unfortunately, this fleet has been reduced by two, with the McCain and Fitzgerald now under repair.) The U.S. would probably move a another full carrier strike group -- about eight to 10 ships, including the carrier -- to the region to augment the forces of Seventh Fleet.

The blockade would be broken up into what we call “at-sea zones”: likely a green zone more than 500 miles from the Korean Peninsula; a yellow zone from 200 nautical miles off the North Korean coast out to 500 nautical miles; and a red zone consisting of the sovereign waters of North Korea -- a 12-nautical-mile territorial area, a 24-nautical-mile contiguous zone, and then a 200-nautical-mile exclusive economic zone.

This is a vast water space to manage, and would require nonstop surveillance by overhead satellites, long-range maritime patrol aircraft and unmanned “long-dwell” drones -- those with the ability to linger over a target for the longest time -- working in concert to maintain maritime situational awareness and a viable plot of approaching and departing ships. Every ship entering the yellow zone would need to be tracked, and boarded for inspection and possible confiscation when it entered or departed the red zone.

Until the Security Council passes a resolution enforcing a blockade -- as it did during the intervention in Libya in 2011 -- this would have to be a “coalition of the willing” operation.
The U.S. would certainly approach Pacific allies including South Korea, Japan, Australia, New Zealand and Singapore. The ships operating in such a blockade do not all need to be super-high-end destroyers; frigates, corvettes and other lighter surface combatants from allies could be very helpful. A force of at least six to eight vessels on both coasts of North Korea would be required.

The real challenge, of course, would be political, not operational. While North Korea will strenuously resist, it does not have the long-range targeting ability or enough combatant vessels to realistically challenge a blockade. But objections from both Russia and China, who certainly have the ability to confront a U.S.-led effort, would be a big hurdle. They might choose, for example, to disregard the blockade, escort North Korean and third-party ships through it, or even actively oppose it by challenging U.S. ships at sea.

The biggest downside of a naval blockade would be the possibility of an at-sea confrontation between U.S. and allied warships and those of either China or Russia. While there is a small chance of escalation as a result of such a confrontation, it seems unlikely to significantly escalate. Neither China nor Russia are so invested in North Korea as to risk combat with the U.S., particularly at sea, where our navy holds a significant comparative advantage. Additionally, if the U.S. seriously lays out the international legal case for the blockade, and emphasizes that it has no desire for regime change as well as a willingness to open up four- or six-party talks, the odds of this spiraling out of control further diminish. While such a risk is real, it is less of a risk than simply allowing North Korea to continue on unchecked.

The U.S. has solid experience in implementing blockades over the years, from the Civil War and Cuban missile crisis to the more recent conflicts in the Balkans and Haiti. We know how to do this, and it presents an opportunity to throw the North Koreans off their stride and pinch their economy in a way that may avoid the need for a huge military conflict down the road.

While Kim is not irrational, he is well-named: the “Un” could stand easily for “un”-predictable, “un”-tested and “un”-stable. He feels he needs a nuclear deterrent to keep his family dynasty in power, and he’s a clever tactician who finds ways to confound traditional responses to his behavior, always operating with the logic of his own. A strong naval blockade might be the best chance to break the cycle in which he initiates action, and the U.S. and its allies simply respond.
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Re: Svet i sire

Post by William Murderface on Fri Sep 15, 2017 6:11 pm

Blind Lime Pie wrote:Nije to baš optimizam. Bio bih optimista kada bih verovao da će Kim biti ubijen i da će ta  zemlja makar u nekoj maloj meri biti otvorena prema ostatku sveta. Jeziva mi je pomisao na nuklearnu silu koja silom drži 25 miliona ljudi izvan svih svetskih tokova, jer ja nisam čovek savremenih shvatanja i rado se držim demodirane ideje da svi ljudi na svetu imaju pravo da biraju zaposlenje, mesto življenja, da izlaze iz svoje zemlje i vraćaju se u nju i da slobodno i po svom nahođenju koriste globalnu komunikacionu infrastrukturu. A bojim se da će Severna Koreja jednostavno postati vrlo opak regionalni igrač koji će inokosno postavljati uslove u vezi sa mnogo čime u tom delu sveta.


Mislim da Severna Koreja dugoročno ide ka nekom kineskom scenariju, dakle laganom prelasku u državni kapitalizam i poluslobodno tržište. Jebešš nuklearke kad nemaju šta da jedu.

Da li je to dobro ili loše, ko zna. Za građane Severne Koreje je svakako dobro.

U stvari, kad razmislim, mislim da je ceo ovaj nuklearni cirkus zapravo najava, ne daljeg zatvaranja, nego laganog otvaranja SK. Bez nuklearki, to bi prosto bio preveliki rizik za vlast. Ovako su se osigurali i onda će lagano da počnu ekonomski da se otvaraju, verovatno prvo prema Kini i Rusiji, a kasnije i prema zapadu. Mislim, i Kimu bi svakako bilo zgodno da ta ropska radna snaga počne da zarađuje neku realnu lovu. Jebo robove, kad nemaš za šta da ih iskoristiš.


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Re: Svet i sire

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