Блиски исток

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Re: Блиски исток

Post by KinderLad on Wed May 09, 2018 12:32 am

Ili gradjanskog rata. Ali ubedjen sam da je to cilj. Mislim, skoro sasvim sam siguran da Iran/Persija kao Iran/Persija nije problem, nego je prebacivanje te zemlje u "prijatelje" fatalan udarac Rusiji i Kini u azijskoj "partiji saha", i zato je pitanje da li bi to uopste dopustile. I sta ako ne bi. Sukob u Iranu je opasnost po svetski mir 1/1 tu nema sumnje.
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Re: Блиски исток

Post by beatakeshi on Wed May 09, 2018 12:44 am

Nije sukob u Iranu pretnja, Amerika je pretnja
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Re: Блиски исток

Post by KinderLad on Wed May 09, 2018 12:51 am

Najpreciznije, Trump je pretnja. I neocons.
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Re: Блиски исток

Post by beatakeshi on Wed May 09, 2018 1:00 am

Ratova je bilo i pre Trampa i neokonsa.
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Re: Блиски исток

Post by KinderLad on Wed May 09, 2018 1:15 am

Pa da, ali ovi cackaju bas tamo gde ne treba. Iran je neuporediv sa Kosovom ili Libijom.

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Re: Блиски исток

Post by Zuper on Wed May 09, 2018 1:28 am

KinderLad wrote:Ili gradjanskog rata. Ali ubedjen sam da je to cilj. Mislim, skoro sasvim sam siguran da Iran/Persija kao Iran/Persija nije problem, nego je prebacivanje te zemlje u "prijatelje" fatalan udarac Rusiji i Kini u azijskoj "partiji saha", i zato je pitanje da li bi to uopste  dopustile. I sta ako ne bi. Sukob u Iranu je opasnost po svetski mir 1/1 tu nema sumnje.

Rusija i Kina nikada nisu bili saveznici Irana. Trenutni interesi da ali ne saveznici.
Tek sada nesto Rusi vrte okolo ali to je ekonomske prirode ne i vojne.
Kinezi danas podrzavaju Trampa oko Irana tako sto mu pomazu oko Sev. Koreje...
Stavise, tokom Iransko-Irackog rata SSSR je pomagao Irak, doduse to su radile i SAD, mada su Ameri pokvareniji pa su ponekad pomagali Iranu preko Izraela i za svoje potrbe u Centralnoj Americi na rusenju levicarskih rezima, afera Iran-Kontra...
Iran je bio sam i izolovan od Islamske revolucije.
SSSR je nudio Iranu da udje u taj blok ali su teokratski Ajatolasi to odbili.
Ponekad bi Iran otvorioi prema zapadu, npr. pocetkom devedesetih, sto nije bilo dobro po nas na Balkanu ali nikada to nije islo do kraja i odnosi bi zahladneli zbog zapadnog pritiska.
Prosto, tvrda struja u Vasingtonu nikada nije zaboravila ponizenje koje su im napravili sa Revoucijim i zarobljavanjem dela osoblja ambasade.
Nemoj zaboraviti da je zbog toga Karter izgubio izbore 1980 od Regana...
Jedini saveznik Irana je Severna Koreja...

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Re: Блиски исток

Post by Zuper on Wed May 09, 2018 1:44 am

bruno sulak wrote:ne znam sta je ovde trampov endgame a da nije rat.

Ne.
Ovo je osveta Baraku Obam tj. do unutrasnje poliitke SAD gde Tramp misli da iza ove price oko Rusije i istrage svega i svacega stoji Obama i njegovi ljudi pa sto ga vise oni pritiskaju on im ovako vraca sa gasenjem celog Obaminog nasledja...

A onda pokusaj da napravi nesto slicno kao sa Severnom Korejom. Mislim da mu to sa Iranom nece uspeti ali ce pokusati veliki pritisak na sve da bi dobio neki svoj sporazum...Primera radi, svi ovi dogadjaji oko Rusije i pritisak na nju poslednjih par meseci delimicno imaju veze sa Iranom, nije samo to ali ima dosta oko toga, ja bih rekao najvise.

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Re: Блиски исток

Post by Zuper on Wed May 09, 2018 1:59 am

Evo i ovde:

Trump’s new ambassador to Germany, Richard Grenell, issued what amounted to a diktat on Twitter today: “As @realDonaldTrump said, US sanctions will target critical sectors of Iran’s economy. German companies doing business in Iran should wind down operations immediately.”

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Re: Блиски исток

Post by Zuper on Wed May 09, 2018 1:53 pm

Iranian MPs set US flag ablaze in parliament, shouting 'death to America'



"The period is only a window in which the EU can prove if it has enough weight for settling down international issues or not?" he said.
Larijani also urged the country's nuclear program to prepare for "resumption of all aspects of nuclear activities."
Iran hopes the European Union will pass laws to protect European firms from any potential US sanctions. EU officials have suggested they'll do what they can to salvage the agreement.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/05/09/iranian-mps-set-us-flag-ablaze-parliament-shouting-death-america/
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Re: Блиски исток

Post by паће on Wed May 09, 2018 2:30 pm

Zuper wrote:
Nemoj zaboraviti da je zbog toga Karter izgubio izbore 1980 od Regana...

Тј да је Реган одуговлачио са избављењем талаца док не прођу избори, да се добра вест не би приписала Картеру.


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Re: Блиски исток

Post by Gargantua on Wed May 09, 2018 3:52 pm

^^^ Odgovor

Wolfgang Ischinger @ischinger
Ric: my advice, after a long ambassadorial career: explain your own country’s policies, and lobby the host country - but never tell the host country what to do, if you want to stay out of trouble. Germans are eager to listen, but they will resent instructions.


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Re: Блиски исток

Post by MNE on Wed May 09, 2018 3:57 pm

Zuper wrote:
bruno sulak wrote:ne znam sta je ovde trampov endgame a da nije rat.

gde Tramp misli da iza ove price oko Rusije i istrage svega i svacega stoji Obama i njegovi ljudi 

jok stoji haradinaj i njegovi ljudi
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Re: Блиски исток

Post by Gargantua on Wed May 09, 2018 4:24 pm

Zuper wrote:
bruno sulak wrote:ne znam sta je ovde trampov endgame a da nije rat.

Ne.
Ovo je osveta Baraku Obam tj. do unutrasnje poliitke SAD gde Tramp misli da iza ove price oko Rusije i istrage svega i svacega stoji Obama i njegovi ljudi pa sto ga vise oni pritiskaju on im ovako vraca sa gasenjem celog Obaminog nasledja...

...

Da, sasvim je moguće da je dominanta akcija koja se ovde pravi pre svega motivisana unutrašnjim razlozima.


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Re: Блиски исток

Post by Filipenko on Wed May 09, 2018 4:28 pm

Gargantua wrote:^^^ Odgovor

Wolfgang Ischinger @ischinger
Ric: my advice, after a  long ambassadorial career: explain your own country’s policies, and lobby the host country - but never tell the host country what to do, if you want to stay out of trouble. Germans are eager to listen, but they will resent instructions.


Uf sad kad tako ljuti odbruse Americi...not. 


Nemačka je okupirana zemlja i prema SŠA se ima ponašati kako je primereno. To što su drugi okupatori bili ludi ili dobili napad naivne ljudskosti je njihov problem.


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Re: Блиски исток

Post by Gargantua on Thu May 10, 2018 12:33 am

Michael Wilner @mawilner
Signs of significant, direct military engagement on the #Israel-#Syria border.

Within Syria @withinsyriablog
Al-Mayadeen TV said that "dozens" of rockets fired from Syria hit at least 4 positions of the Israeli Army in the Golan Heights.

Within Syria @withinsyriablog
I will report the development of the situation in Golan Heights in this thread, so far we can say that this is the biggest clash between Syria and Israel since 1974

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Re: Блиски исток

Post by Zuper on Thu May 10, 2018 1:17 am

Ozbiljno je makljanje oko Golana trenutno...
Izraelci su pucali i na jug Libana.
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Re: Блиски исток

Post by Gargantua on Thu May 10, 2018 8:28 am

Michael A. Horowitz
‏Verified account @michaelh992
59m59 minutes ago

Targets hit by the IDF following the Iranian rocket barrage last night (via @LeBeckInt Alerts)
- Qods force intelligence HQ
- QF logistical centre
- Military & logistical base in al-Kiswah
- Iranian base north of Damascus
- QF weapons depot  force in Damascus international

Michael A. Horowitz
‏Verified account @michaelh992
54m54 minutes ago

- Additional intelligence outpost belonging to the Qods force
- Observation posts & military outposts along the demilitarized zone

Michael A. Horowitz
‏Verified account @michaelh992
16m16 minutes ago

Despite all the talks of "war," & significance of the escalation last night, let's note that:
1. IRGC did not use precision-guided missiles, rather "dumb" rockets
2. Strike seems to have aimed at military bases rather than civilians
3. Strike was not in-depth #Iran #Syria

By doing so, #Iran does send the message that it does not want an escalation, picked a limited option when compared to the trigger event (Israeli strikes + death of IRGC operatives)

Note, however, that this is exactly what concerns Israel: That #Iran will create a "southern Lebanon" bis in southern Syria, it can use to fire missiles while not reaching the threshold of open/broader conflict


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Re: Блиски исток

Post by Sotir on Thu May 10, 2018 10:59 am

Ово што пише Хоровиц није баш тако наивно за Израел.

Ако се ради о ”пинг-понгу” на Голанској висоравни између Израела и Сирије-Ирана, на дужи период Израел не може то да издржи.
Ноћас су гађали салву из ВБР-а, погодили 24 Града са ”Iron dome" - финансијски огромна разлика у цени. За дејства по дубини Сирије морају да користе вођена оружја, и да изводе сложене операције за дејство из дубине простора Израела и других земаља. Досад су могли да изведу 1-2 такве операције месечно, ако покушају више имаће и веће губитке.

У случају сукоба копнених снага, неће бити репризе сукоба у Либану - овог пута Хезболах може да рачуна и на подршку артиљерије и ПВО. А још тад Израелци нису успели да пробију одбрану у неколико насеља.
Такође и у погледу људских губитака, Иранци и Сиријци су већ годинама у сукобу и имали су хиљаде и десетине хиљада губитака. Још која хиљада у сукобу са Израелом се не би пуно осетила, али Израелцима би већ стотине људи био осетан психолошки удар, поготово јер сам Израел није нападнут.

Треба додати и да Иран располаже са доста БПЛ, са којима може да покуша нападе на израелске авио базе (попут неуспешних напада на Хмејим).
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Re: Блиски исток

Post by Gargantua on Thu May 10, 2018 11:18 am



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Re: Блиски исток

Post by Zuper on Thu May 10, 2018 6:29 pm

Russia Making Efforts to Help Ease Israel-Iran Standoff: IFX
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Re: Блиски исток

Post by Gargantua on Thu May 10, 2018 6:32 pm

AFP
#BREAKING Netanyahu says Iran crossed "red line" with rocket fire at Israeli forces


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Re: Блиски исток

Post by Gargamel on Thu May 10, 2018 8:14 pm

bruno sulak wrote:ne znam sta je ovde trampov endgame a da nije rat.
re-negotiation, and a better deal.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-asked-french-to-broker-trump-rouhani-phone-call-but-iranian-president-said-no/2017/11/02/9addf436-bfea-11e7-959c-fe2b598d8c00_story.html

Just hours after President Trump finished calling Iran a "murderous regime" in his Sept. 19 speech at the United Nations, the administration asked French President Emmanuel Macron for a favor. Would Macron inquire whether Iranian President Hassan Rouhani was interested in speaking directly with Trump?

All three leaders were in New York for the U.N. General Assembly, as was Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, who conveyed the request to Macron, according to several administration and foreign officials.

Iran's response, later that afternoon, was an unequivocal no. The Iranians, the French reported, "don't believe you're serious" and thought it was some kind of trick, a senior administration official said.
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Re: Блиски исток

Post by Gargantua on Thu May 10, 2018 9:45 pm

Za dogovor je potreban i kredibilitet.


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Re: Блиски исток

Post by Gargamel on Thu May 10, 2018 9:54 pm

Gargantua wrote:Za dogovor je potreban i kredibilitet.
credibility is overrated.

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Re: Блиски исток

Post by Zuper on Fri May 11, 2018 12:27 pm

Iran Foreign Minister Zarif to meet with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang on Sunday and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov on Monday

Re: Блиски исток

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