Блиски исток

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Re: Блиски исток

Post by Zuper on Tue Nov 07, 2017 6:10 pm


The inside story of the Saudi night of long knives

Princes, ministers and a billionaire are 'imprisoned' in the Riyadh Ritz-Carlton while the Saudi Arabian Army is said to be in an uproar


The House of Saud’s King Salman devises an high-powered “anti-corruption” commission and appoints his son, Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman, a.k.a. MBS, as chairman.
Right on cue, the commission detains 11 House of Saud princes, four current ministers and dozens of former princes/cabinet secretaries – all charged with corruption. Hefty bank accounts are frozen, private jets are grounded. The high-profile accused lot is “jailed” at the Riyadh Ritz-Carlton.

War breaks out within the House of Saud, as Asia Times had anticipated back in July. Rumors have been swirling for months about a coup against MBS in the making. Instead, what just happened is yet another MBS pre-emptive coup.
A top Middle East business/investment source who has been doing deals for decades with the opaque House of Saud offers much-needed perspective: “This is more serious than it appears. The arrest of the two sons of previous King Abdullah, Princes Miteb and Turki, was a fatal mistake. This now endangers the King himself. It was only the regard for the King that protected MBS. There are many left in the army against MBS and they are enraged at the arrest of their commanders.”
To say the Saudi Arabian Army is in uproar is an understatement. “He’d have to arrest the whole army before he could feel secure.”
Prince Miteb until recently was a serious contender to the Saudi throne. But the highest profile among the detainees belongs to billionaire Prince al-Waleed Bin Talal, owner of Kingdom Holdings, major shareholder in Twitter, CitiBank, Four Seasons, Lyft and, until recently, Rupert Murdoch’s Newscorp.

Al-Waleed’s arrest ties up with a key angle; total information control. There’s no freedom of information in Saudi Arabia. MBS already controls all the internal media (as well as the appointment of governorships). But then there’s Saudi media at large. MBS aims to “hold the keys to all the large media empires and relocate them to Saudi Arabia.”
So how did we get here?

The secrets behind the purge

The story starts with secret deliberations in 2014 about a possible “removal” of then King Abdullah. But “the dissolution of the royal family would lead to the breaking apart of tribal loyalties and the country splitting into three parts. It would be more difficult to secure the oil, and the broken institutions whatever they were should be maintained to avoid chaos.”
Instead, a decision was reached to get rid of Prince Bandar bin Sultan – then actively coddling Salafi-jihadis in Syria – and replace the control of the security apparatus with Mohammed bin Nayef.
The succession of Abdullah proceeded smoothly. “Power was shared between three main clans: King Salman (and his beloved son Prince Mohammed); the son of Prince Nayef (the other Prince Mohammed), and finally the son of the dead king (Prince Miteb, commander of the National Guard). In practice, Salman let MBS run the show.

And, in practice, blunders also followed. The House of Saud lost its lethal regime-change drive in Syria and is bogged down in an unwinnable war on Yemen, which on top of it prevents MBS from exploiting the Empty Quarter – the desert straddling both nations.
The Saudi Treasury was forced to borrow on the international markets. Austerity ruled – with news of MBS buying a yacht for almost half a billion dollars while lazing about the Cote d’Azur not going down particularly well. Hardcore political repression is epitomized by the decapitation of Shi’ite leader Sheikh Al-Nimr. Not only the Shi’ites in the Eastern province are rebelling but also Sunni provinces in the west.
As the regime’s popularity radically tumbled down, MBS came up with Vision 2030. Theoretically, it was shift away from oil; selling off part of Aramco; and an attempt to bring in new industries. Cooling off dissatisfaction was covered by royal payoffs to key princes to stay loyal and retroactive payments on back wages to the unruly masses.
Yet Vision 2030 cannot possibly work when the majority of productive jobs in Saudi Arabia are held by expats. Bringing in new jobs raises the question of where are the new (skilled) workers to come from.
Throughout these developments, aversion to MBS never ceased to grow; “There are three major royal family groups aligning against the present rulers: the family of former King Abdullah, the family of former King Fahd, and the family of former Crown Prince Nayef.”

Nayef – who replaced Bandar – is close to Washington and extremely popular in Langley due to his counter-terrorism activities. His arrest earlier this year angered the CIA and quite a few factions of the House of Saud – as it was interpreted as MBS forcing his hand in the power struggle.
According to the source, “he might have gotten away with the arrest of CIA favorite Mohammed bin Nayef if he smoothed it over but MBS has now crossed the Rubicon though he is no Caesar. The CIA regards him as totally worthless.”
Some sort of stability could eventually be found in a return to the previous power sharing between the Sudairis (without MBS) and the Chamars (the tribe of deceased King Abdullah). After the death of King Salman, the source would see it as “MBS isolated from power, which would be entrusted to the other Prince Mohammed (the son of Nayef). And Prince Miteb would conserve his position.”
MBS acted exactly to prevent this outcome. The source, though, is adamant; “There will be regime change in the near future, and the only reason that it has not happened already is because the old King is liked among his family. It is possible that there may be a struggle emanating from the military as during the days of King Farouk, and we may have a ruler arise that is not friendly to the United States.”

‘Moderate’ Salafi-jihadis, anyone?

Before the purge, the House of Saud’s incessant spin centered on a $500 billion zone straddling Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt, on the Red Sea coast, a sort of Dubai replica to be theoretically completed by 2025, powered by wind and solar energy, and financed by its sovereign wealth fund and proceeds from the Aramco IPO.
In parallel, MBS pulled another rabbit from his hat swearing the future of Saudi Arabia is a matter of “simply reverting to what we followed – a moderate Islam open to the world and all religions.”
In a nutshell: a state that happens to be the private property of a royal family inimical to all principles of freedom of expression and religion, as well as the ideological matrix of all forms of Salafi-jihadism simply cannot metastasize into a “moderate” state just because MBS says so.
Meanwhile, a pile-up of purges, coups and countercoups shall be the norm.

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Re: Блиски исток

Post by Zuper on Tue Nov 07, 2017 6:46 pm

Saudi banks freeze more than 1,200 accounts in probe, number still rising: sources

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-arrests-accounts/saudi-banks-freeze-more-than-1200-accounts-in-probe-number-still-rising-sources-idUSKBN1D71W5


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Re: Блиски исток

Post by Zuper on Thu Nov 09, 2017 4:04 pm

Da li je rat Izraela i Hezbulaha blizu?

Official Source at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs: Saudi nationals visiting or residing in Lebanon are asked to leave the country as soon as possible

http://www.spa.gov.sa/viewfullstory.php?lang=en&newsid=1686201#1686201
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Re: Блиски исток

Post by fikret selimbašić on Thu Nov 09, 2017 4:54 pm

Bahreinske vlasti su pozvale svoje građane da napuste Liban još prije četir-pet dana. Libanski premijer je izgleda zarobljen u Saudiji, odatle podnio ostavku u televizijskom obraćanju...


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Re: Блиски исток

Post by Zuper on Thu Nov 09, 2017 5:23 pm

asad abukhalil‏Verified account @asadabukhalil




I am hearing that Muhammad bin Salman will be declaring himself king in the next 36 hours and that recent arrests paved the way.
5:37 PM - 8 Nov 2017

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Re: Блиски исток

Post by Hubert de Montmirail on Thu Nov 09, 2017 6:39 pm

Zuper wrote: asad abukhalil‏Verified account @asadabukhalil




I am hearing that Muhammad bin Salman will be declaring himself king in the next 36 hours and that recent arrests paved the way.
5:37 PM - 8 Nov 2017




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Re: Блиски исток

Post by Gargantua on Sun Nov 12, 2017 1:13 pm

Exclusive: How Saudi Arabia turned on Lebanon's Hariri
Samia Nakhoul, Laila Bassam, Tom Perry


BEIRUT (Reuters) - From the moment Saad al-Hariri’s plane touched down in Saudi Arabia on Friday Nov. 3, he was in for a surprise.

There was no line-up of Saudi princes or ministry officials, as would typically greet a prime minister on an official visit to King Salman, senior sources close to Hariri and top Lebanese political and security officials said. His phone was confiscated, and the next day he was forced to resign as prime minister in a statement broadcast by a Saudi-owned TV channel.

The move thrust Lebanon back to the forefront of a struggle that is reshaping the Middle East, between the conservative Sunni monarchy of Saudi Arabia and Shi‘ite revolutionary Iran.

Their rivalry has fueled conflicts in Iraq, Syria and Yemen, where they back opposing sides, and now risks destabilizing Lebanon, where Saudi has long tried to weaken the Iran-backed Hezbollah group, Lebanon’s main political power and part of the ruling coalition.

Sources close to Hariri say Saudi Arabia has concluded that the prime minister - a long-time Saudi ally and son of late prime minister Rafik al-Hariri, who was assassinated in 2005 - had to go because he was unwilling to confront Hezbollah.

Multiple Lebanese sources say Riyadh hopes to replace Saad Hariri with his older brother Bahaa as Lebanon’s top Sunni politician. Bahaa is believed to be in Saudi Arabia and members of the Hariri family have been asked to travel there to pledge allegiance to him, but have refused, the sources say.

“When Hariri’s plane landed in Riyadh, he got the message immediately that something was wrong,” a Hariri source told Reuters. “There was no one was waiting for him.”

Saudi Arabia has dismissed suggestions it forced Hariri to resign and says he is a free man. Saudi officials could not immediately be reached for comment on the circumstances of his arrival, whether his phone had been taken, or whether the Kingdom was planning to replace him with his brother.

Hariri has given no public remarks since he resigned and no indication of when he might return to Lebanon.

“NO RESPECT”

Hariri was summoned to the Kingdom to meet Saudi King Salman in a phone call on Thursday night, Nov. 2.

Before departing, he told his officials they would resume their discussions on Monday. He told his media team he would see them at the weekend in the Red Sea resort of Sharm al-Sheikh, where he was due to meet Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi on the sidelines of the World Youth Forum.

Hariri went to his Riyadh home. His family made their fortune in Saudi Arabia and have long had properties there. The source close to Hariri said the Lebanese leader received a call from a Saudi protocol official on Saturday morning, who asked him to attend a meeting with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

He waited for about four hours before being presented with his resignation speech to read on television, the source said.

“From the moment he arrived they (Saudis) showed no respect for the man,” another senior Lebanese political source said.


Hariri frequently visits Saudi Arabia. On a trip a few days earlier, Prince Mohammed bin Salman had arranged for him to see senior intelligence officials and Gulf Affairs Minister Thamer al-Sabhan, the Saudi point man on Lebanon.

Hariri came back from that trip to Beirut “pleased and relaxed”, sources in his entourage said. He posted a selfie with Sabhan, both of them smiling. He told aides he had heard “encouraging statements” from the crown prince, including a promise to revive a Saudi aid package for the Lebanese army.


The Hariri sources say Hariri believed he had convinced Saudi officials of the need to maintain an entente with Hezbollah for the sake of Lebanon’s stability.

Hezbollah has a heavily armed fighting force, in addition to seats in parliament and government. Saudi-backed efforts to weaken the group in Lebanon a decade ago led to Sunni-Shi‘ite clashes and a Hezbollah takeover of Beirut.

“What happened in those meetings, I believe, is that (Hariri) revealed his position on how to deal with Hezbollah in Lebanon: that confrontation would destabilize the country. I think they didn’t like what they heard,” said one of the sources, who was briefed on the meetings.

The source said Hariri told Sabhan not to “hold us responsible for something that is beyond my control or that of Lebanon.” But Hariri underestimated the Saudi position on Hezbollah, the source said.

“For the Saudis it is an existential battle. It’s black and white. We in Lebanon are used to gray,” the source said.

Sabhan could not immediately be reached for comment.

RESIGNATION

Hariri’s resignation speech shocked his team.

Lebanese President Michel Aoun, a Hezbollah ally, told ambassadors to Lebanon that Saudi Arabia had kidnapped Hariri, a senior Lebanese official said. On Friday, France said it wanted Hariri to have “all his freedom of movement”.

In his speech, Hariri said he feared assassination and accused Iran and Hezbollah of sowing strife in the region. He said the Arab world would “cut off the hands that wickedly extend to it,” language which one source close to him said was not typical of the Lebanese leader.

Hariri’s resignation came as more than 200 people, including 11 Saudi princes, current and former ministers and tycoons, were arrested in an anti-corruption purge in Saudi Arabia.

Hariri's party condemns attacks against Saudi Arabia: statement

Initially there was speculation Hariri was a target of that campaign because of his family’s business interests. But sources close to the Lebanese leader said his forced resignation was motivated by Saudi efforts to counter Iran.


Hariri was taken to meet the Saudi king after his resignation. Footage was aired on Saudi TV. He was then flown to Abu Dhabi to meet Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed, the Saudi crown prince’s main regional ally. He returned to Riyadh and has since received Western ambassadors.

Sources close to Hariri said the Saudis, while keeping Hariri under house arrest, were trying to orchestrate a change of leadership in Hariri’s Future Movement by installing his elder brother Bahaa, who was overlooked for the top job when their father was killed. The two have been at odds for years.

In a statement, the Future Movement said it stood fully behind Hariri as its leader. Hariri aide and Interior Minister Nohad Machnouk dismissed the idea Bahaa was being positioned to replace his brother:


“We are not herds of sheep or a plot of land whose ownership can be moved from one person to another. In Lebanon things happen though elections not pledges of allegiances.”

Family members, aides and politicians who have contacted Hariri in Riyadh say he is apprehensive and reluctant to say anything beyond “I am fine”. Asked if he is coming back, they say his normal answer is: “Inshallah” (God willing).

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-lebanon-politics-hariri-exclusive/exclusive-how-saudi-arabia-turned-on-lebanons-hariri-idUSKBN1DB0QL


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Re: Блиски исток

Post by Ointagru Unartan on Sun Nov 12, 2017 1:52 pm

Kidnapovanje sefa vlade strane drzave trebalo bi da predstavlja jedan od najvecih diplomatskih skandala u poslednje vreme ali, posto se radi o Saudijcima, "medjunarodna zajednica" se pravi blesava. Da je to uradila Severna Koreja ili Iran, bilo bi rata.


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Re: Блиски исток

Post by Gargantua on Sun Nov 12, 2017 2:00 pm

Zna međunarodna zajednica šta radi i zašto je to dobro.


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Re: Блиски исток

Post by xie saike on Thu Nov 16, 2017 3:29 pm




In an unprecedented move, a Saudi newspaper on Thursday published an interview with the Israeli military chief, Lt. Gen. Gadi Eisenkot. This is the first time that an Israeli chief of staff is interviewed by a media outlet in the kingdom, which doesn't have diplomatic ties with Israel. 

In the interview to the Saudi newspaper Elaph, Eisenkot described Iran as the "biggest threat to the region." He said Israel and Saudi Arabia are in full agreement about Iran's intentions, noting that Israel and Saudi Arabia have never fought each other.


jel ovo stvarno unprecedented move?


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Re: Блиски исток

Post by Guest on Thu Nov 16, 2017 3:30 pm

Nezamisliv do sada.
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Re: Блиски исток

Post by xie saike on Thu Nov 16, 2017 3:32 pm

dakle novi saveznici, lavli 

ovde sam to procito 

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/1.823163


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Re: Блиски исток

Post by Guest on Thu Nov 16, 2017 3:34 pm

Krčka se to savezništvo već godinu dana ali ovo je baš šok.
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Re: Блиски исток

Post by William Murderface on Thu Nov 16, 2017 3:43 pm

Predivno.



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Re: Блиски исток

Post by Gargantua on Mon Dec 04, 2017 9:04 am

Zupere, ne fališ se da je volođa izdilovao sa sisijem korišćenje egipatskih baza za svoje vozdušno-kosmičeskie sili?


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Re: Блиски исток

Post by Zuper on Mon Dec 04, 2017 1:12 pm

Nebitno, to je samo opterecenje za Rusiju, koja misli da tako kontrolise naftu u Libiji i gas u Egiptu...
Mnogo je znaimljivije ono sto se desava u Jemenu trenutno. Gde su se se saveznici dovatili i kolju se. Mislim na Saleha i Hute. Stavise, postoje izvestaji da je Saleh ubijen u gradskim borbama u Sani. Izgleda  da su Saudijci  ponudili Salehu mesto predsednika, umesto one svoje lutke, ako sroka Hute. To se nece desiti, jer ako Huti izgube Sanu idu u svoja brda a odatle ce da deluju kao Talibani protiv mnogo jace sile koja ih nije dotukla.

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Re: Блиски исток

Post by Zuper on Mon Dec 04, 2017 4:02 pm

AFP news agency‏Verified account @AFP  1m1 minute ago


#BREAKING Yemen ex-president Saleh confirmed dead: party official

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A, budale. Preziveo toliko dugo, mnoge krize pregurao, plus Saudijsko zbacivanje na ulici 2011. Sta mu bi da pravi savez sa Saudijcima a do juce je ratovao protiv njih u savezu sa Hutima?!
Nesto je tu cudno.

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Re: Блиски исток

Post by Zuper on Tue Dec 05, 2017 1:54 pm

Posle se pitaju ljudi zasto se kupuju ruske PVO.

Did American Missile Defense Fail in Saudi Arabia?
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/12/04/world/middleeast/saudi-missile-defense.html?smid=tw-share

Saudi officials said the debris, which appears to belong to a downed Burqan-2, showed a successful shootdown. But an analysis of the debris shows that the warhead components – the part of the missile that carries the explosives – were missing. The missing warhead signaled something important to the analysts: that the missile may have evaded Saudi defenses.
 
...This would explain why the debris in Riyadh only appears to consist of the rear tube. And it suggests that the Saudis may have missed the missile, or only hit the tube after it had separated and begun to fall uselessly toward earth.

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Re: Блиски исток

Post by fikret selimbašić on Tue Dec 05, 2017 2:01 pm

Kupuju ih da se uspješno odbrane od vazdušnih i raketnih napada, npr. ovako kao što se Sirija zadnjih dana brani od izraelskih udara 


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Re: Блиски исток

Post by Zuper on Tue Dec 05, 2017 2:17 pm

Nema sirija moderne ruske PVO a i da ima morali bi da obaraju izraelske avione nad Izraelom...nije to isto.
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Re: Блиски исток

Post by fikret selimbašić on Tue Dec 05, 2017 2:28 pm

Oboriti ga nad Izraelom ili Libanom bi još veći merak valjda bio. Ono što od ruskih pvo sistema imaju treba da to odrade bez većih problema, bar tako piše za S 200 npr. Vidim snimke laniranja raketa, ne znam koliko su moderne ali izgleda da slabo šta mogu da naprave čim ovi nastavljaju da bombaju šta im se ćejfne.


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Re: Блиски исток

Post by MNE on Tue Dec 05, 2017 2:45 pm

to je prastar sistem
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Re: Блиски исток

Post by fikret selimbašić on Tue Dec 05, 2017 3:41 pm

Nema veze, ruski je


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Re: Блиски исток

Post by Zuper on Tue Dec 05, 2017 3:55 pm

Saudijski "Patriot" iz SAD je daleko noviji...
Nisam siguran da Japan i J. Koreja sada mirnije spavaju
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Re: Блиски исток

Post by fikret selimbašić on Tue Dec 05, 2017 4:06 pm

Japan i JKoreja bi Isto bi spavali i da ih čuva neki od modernijih S-ova. Baška što mi turska i saudijska nabavka ruskih pvo sistema izgleda više politički nego konkretno odbrambeno motivisana. Ipak su to sistemi koji još boja nisu vidjeli.

Re: Блиски исток

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